Bitcoin Forum

everybody,

 how do u predict the exchange rate for BITCOIN after btc/block goes to 25.

will it double or gradually doubles or remain same or reduce etc?


i wish every one to share your knowledge .[   it is interesting if some one validate his/her claim with some mathematics  ]

It may increase or decrease, but this will not be a result of the block reward changing.

Fundamentally, the reason for this is that the block reward change is predictable (we already know it is going to happen). Suppose that the effect of the block reward halving was that the price would double. Then people would buy bitcoins now in anticipation of this - and as a result the price would go up, until it reached double the price now, before the block reward halves. But of course, we've known this would happen since the start of Bitcoin, so in fact no such sudden change could ever occur as a result of this predictable event. Any changes in the value of the Bitcoin must result from events that are unpredictable by at least some part of the market.

Well, it probably will have a bit of incerase since the cost to mine new Bitcoins increase, but things aren't simple math, so no, it will not double.

If the price doubles, it isn't because of the halving of the blocks value.

Best Regards,
DarkHyudrA

If you believe in the future bitcoins,you also  have to believe that their value will have to eventually sky rocket by several orders of magnitude.

This wont happen any time soon. Especialy since 78% of BTC is not in the circulation - pepole who have those coins may "choke" the exchange rate for many years. But I think that reward drop will cause slight increase in value during next months - since inflation will be drastically reduced, there will be some pressure for rises.

Psychology is a much better predictor than mathematics as far as the bitcoin market is concerned. Recent rise was due to peoples perception of the impending drop in reward. Currently we are in a correction which will likely bottom around the high eights. If bitcoin adoption continues then we will see growth again after the new year.
(Note, I am often wrong)

if a person could predict bitcoin value, that person would be really really rich, not possible thou.

In the long run, alot of people will get rich if bitcoin becomes successfull.
Im always wondering how many BTC the richest 100 Bitcoin holders (persons) have.
If bitcoin will be worth 1000x more than now, there will be many millionaires, but will there be billionaires?

I'm predicting I have no idea... ;)

Seriously though, I saw a cool quote today on a coffee shop's sandwich board which could apply as a relevant comment in this case perhaps.

"The best way to predict the future is to create it."

I just bought my first BTCs today so naturally I'm hopeful they will increase in purchasing power going forward.

Cheers!

The price will likely increase with an increase in the difficulty to mine. Bitcoin has been constantly deflating as a result of the difficulty. Two bitcoins in todays market would've been like 20000 at one time.

The Bitcointalk mantra on the appreciation question just has to be:

Remember the 10k pizzas. :D

(Links to laszlo's 10k-pizza thread are shared often!)

Let me rephrase that for you:

"The the difficulty to mine will likely increase after an increase in price. Bitcoin has been constantly deflating as a result of something that has nothing to do with the difficulty."

$1,000 per ฿1.0 in 20 years :P

With Bernanke's printing press, I'd say within two years. ;D

Bitcoin value should be measured by the amount of personal benefit/pleasure/things each unit can bring. Just as any other currency. At this specific point, there is absolutely no hope that all govs in the world would drop national currencies in order to adopt this specific currency. So we all still measure the bitcoin value by its... dollar (or any other existing currency) value. Because, right now, when i go shopping, I'll have to pay with a regular currency for my shopping.
The increased mining difficulty, as mentioned by many others before, will not impact the bitcoin value very much. What could and eventually would impact the bitcoin value (and I'd dare to say, it's already acting on its value) it's the publicity around bitcoin. More and more people find out about this currency and for various reasons become involved with it. That means a larger amount of regular currency is being "mixed" with the bitcoin economy, thus pushing the bitcoin value higher. It's not a fast process, the price has been often influenced by other factors such as market maneuvers (made by rich investors), general panic, major exchangers being hacked and so on. But, despite these sudden price drops, the bitcoin will continue to increase in value simply because more and more regular currency will be used to exchange.
I apologize for my possible grammar mistakes, I'm not a native English speaker. This is just my personal opinion on the future of the value of bitcoins, which, of course, can be wrong.

Bitcoin value will increase only if people will use them more and more! I believe in this like anyone who trusts bitcoins. I think that just before and after btc/block goes to 25 BTC value will increase a bit as a consequence of increased interest in bitcoins.

I'm waiting for 47 days to see what will happen next with Obama's negotiations with the Republicans before I make any sort of prediction on the value of Bitcoin, my guess is that will make a dramatic difference in how fast and how much Bitcoin will rise because everyone will be running for the hills with their wealth.

95 Canadian pennies per by the year 2014 :D

Is that a comment on the strength of the Canadian dollar or future weakness of bitcoin? :)

a little bit from column A and a little from colomn b

yes peoples approach towards bitcoin may have some serious impact on its value. if they fear it is not a safe treasury for their wealth [may due to fear of any ban of its use, or possibility of some hacking etc], then value goes down.

otherwise as per current trend, its value normally increase.

IMO the GPU miners will not sell their bitcoins right away after the reward halves. They will probably wait for a better price, so just before asics enter diff. can drop a little as for the price I think it will slowly climb up to 12-13USD at the end of the year.
That's my prediction nothing special  ::)

no higher than $15

Seems like the price will go up very slightly but I think Asics coming out will have a bigger effect on the economy than the halving of the block rewards.

Hoping price will go up slightly and no major changes value in future.

my prediction: it will rise to double the current usd value during the coming two years

Very interesting thread, I've got a few questions (noob questions).

A hypothetical raise in bitcoin prices, whether it's because of rewards being halved or an increasing interest from the general public in this currency, would only affect people who is already IN the market, legacy miners/customers sort of speak?
I ask this because bitcoin is still valued in ordinary currencies (USD/EU etc) so, new customers/miners would get their bitcoins, but if they want to sell/buy anything involving bitcoins, the prices are still going to be listed in USD/EU.
For example:

Bitcoin now (mt.gox) = 12 usd
Bitcoin in a far future = 50 usd
T-shirt now = 50 usd
T-shirt in a far future = 50 usd

That would mean if you want to buy the t-shirt, you would have to spend 50 dollars either way, the difference being, now you'd have to buy ~4BTC at a 12 usd price, an in the future just 1BTC at 50usd, but the price is still the same.

I'm a little confused so I would appreciate if someone could explain this to me.

If a T-shirt costs $50 now, that same T-shirt might well cost $150 in a "far future" thanks to Mr Bernanke and his Printing Press (tm). (Though this isn't a certainty, merely a likelihood.)

Most bitcoin-accepting retailers still peg their prices in fiat (thus the BTC price to pay will fluctuate with the exchange rate) but in future we may well see more sellers setting prices purely in BTC terms, e.g. selling a T-shirt for BTC2 (or in a "far future" scenario, maybe BTC0,002! :) ) regardless of the BTC/$ exchange rate, just like a train ride between, say, Zürich and Geneva, set in Swiss francs, will cost any foreign visitor (assuming not in possession of any railcard) an arm and a leg, almost regardless of the exchange rate. (In fact, that applies to almost everything in Switzerland: very expensive, end of. :) )

Okay. So if bitcoin value rises, it would be a good thing for miners but a bad thing for people who want to invest fiat money in BTC?
Am I not seeing something? [Bitcoin value = exchange rate]? or am I mixing stuff?

If you're buying btc as an investment, then you're assuming the exchange rate will rise (more fiat per btc) after you invest. It's a long position.

If you're purchasing btc as a credit card alternative (buy small amount when you need them, spend immediately) then changes in the exchange rate should have minimal effect.

I see it hitting between $15-$16 within a day or two of the "halving".
I am a GPU Miner, looking into ASIC, but , yea, I will still probably sell or trade my coins, I only see people with less than 500 bitcoins saving them in hopes that it rises as fast as it has in November.

I dare to say that future is pretty far away. The T-shirt being sold at BTC2 and $50 in your example would be sold for a different amount of BTC if its $ market price would be $150, according to what $150 would mean in BTC by that time. Unless, the costs involved in producing that T-shirt would remain the same in BTC, which would imply paying everything with BTC, including salaries :) But that would mean the end of the $, wouldn't it?

I envisage a future scenario (that might not be more than a few years ahead) in which the purchasing power of the $ has been seriously eroded, even more than it has already. Bernanke has admitted to wanting to debase the $ a lot more to relieve the debt crisis, at least on that point he's come clean.

Investors in bitcoin are really more interested in its purchasing power, to which the $ exchange rate is a guide. What will we be able to buy with one bitcoin in future? It's not much good the exchange rate being over $100 if that amount is worth no more than $10 today. But if the BTC exchange rate becomes astronomically high, as in >>$1000 in today's money, then the exact exchange rate won't be as important anyway, I don't think, because there'll be less need to trade to fiat if BTC is already entrenched enough to justify that price. On a pro-rata basis this would not theoretically require anywhere near critical-mass adoption to achieve, but justifying a $1000 price and actually having one on Mt Gox or anywhere else are two different things, of course.

My thoughts go something like;  ;D

The BTC economie, products and services u can buy with BTC at the moment is still in a premature stadium, and yet it is very succesful already.. :D  ..

Do to this still lots of people never heard of it like some countries were the BTC will be the best thing they have heard in years do to economic and repression by government..

Some parts of the world still have to find out about it..parts were millions of people live as they become familiar with it it,s very likely to start using the BTC...so i say in a few years from now when BTC becomes more wide spread there will be a huge value rise because of the limited availability of BTC.. ;) so i think that the demand for BTC will become much more than the supply and that it will happen sooner or later.. So i,m in it for the long run..and will only sell to fiat if i could pay off my morgage at ones and than say goodbye to my bank forever.. ulimate freedom wish.. ;)

U must also keep in mind that we were living the past 4 years with a flood of BTC comming to us do to the 50BTC reward sys..the so called easy coins...this will be over..it will get harder to gain coins in a few months even when ASIC hit ...the people with the most money to invest will be the ones that get the most shares out of the  block rewards..

So the people sitting on there BTC will get tempted sooner or later to sell..

It,s like a poker game.. you go allin or you slow play but u will try to win anyway around... ;)