Bitcoin Forum

Everyone likes to speculate about bitcoin, they will tell you they analysed bitcoin and they know what the price will head to but in reality im pretty sure no one can actually predict bitcoin price. Unlike other currencies or other investments bitcoin doesn't seem to follow any order at all, random price pumps happen every few months and no one knows why, so has anyone been able to predict the price a few times in a row?

There was a guy who seemed to move the price upward every time he bought some bitcoins.

The only people who correctly predicted were bears like fallllliiiiing and others.

I tend to swing from bearism to bullism, and vice versa, in accordance with market sentiment, and I'm generally in the right ballpark. Currently, as glow from the recent price run-up fades, we are entering a bear market. Fasten your seatbelt, we are going to go down.

I don't remember anyone, including fallllliiiiing, predicting the price a few times in a row. Fallllliiiiing merely said the price would continue to fall until it hit zero, with a few dead cat bounces. It hasn't fallen to zero yet, and it hasn't fallen below $150 yet. What fallllliiiiing never did was predict the lowest the price would fall to before a dead cat bounce, and the highest each dead cat bounce would rise to.

Not to my knowledge.

These self declared 'price gurus' are usually too in love with one point of view to account for the opposite taking place. 

It's just impossible , someone can predict approximately if here have some knowledge on finance and economics and there is major events , other then that .; I don't see how people will do it unless they have control on it (planning to invest or dump or something) .

You only need one thing to predict Bitcoin 100% of the time

Something like that
http://www.bobspropshop.com/img/409422_168976996539427_125714114199049_171285_2109531942_n.jpg

That brings another question, if you want to trade bitcoins, can you actually make long term profit or do you actually need to be a little bit lucky to make it work because a bad prediction could lead to disaster seeing the volatility of bitcoin.

I always predict bitcoin 100% maybe 200%, 1BTC is always equal to 1BTC, burn all the fiat unless it's shiny hard jewels or gold!

I wrote ^^^^^ at around 1:00PM (GMT??) and at around 1:30PM (GMT??), the price dropped from 333 to 319 current.

What do you say now?

i guess manipulators can do it all the time with easy, you should ask them for this kind of thing

all the other are at their mercy, they will be powerless when bitcoin will increase very high in value

in oktober when bitcoin price 2000CNY/$313
my speculation we will Hit 4000CNY /$600 this is my thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1234815.0

but the max price only 3345CNY  :D

MY PREDICTION not 100% right

i think if any some one has predict bitcoin price with 100% accurate he will not publish the prediction to the public and he will keep by himself

and he will earn lot of profit with that ability because he know when the price will going down and also know when the price rise up

i have never managed to do this even though i tried several times most probably thats impossible because no one does it

Someone that predict what a market does 100% of the time can be on the good side of every trade and own all the money used for trading in a matter of months. He must be trading 100% to himself by now.

i highly doubt that it is possible for someone to do this as the price fluctuates really hard in short time periods and people cant guess it

Can anyone actually predict the price more than 50% of the times and make long term profit from shor term trades? Im not so sure, I guess there might be someone who was able to but it could have been luck. Im sure long term it's impossible to predict the price but people still claim they can.

Long term wise it can only go up due to more and more fiat money printing worldwide, those who predict long term appreciation against fiat money have always been 100% correct. But on short term it is like gambling

Back in October I predicted a spike somwhere around November. I had the feeling that since BTC was growing constantly till then and price was steadily going up, it could have been possible to have a big price increase. In a way I was right even though, of course, I could not predict something like what happened.

But my thoughts led me to buy at the perfect time to gain some more. That's enough

I haven't really had a few good predictions in a row in ragards to the price going up. But when it comes to selling, I have been 75% of the times spot on. I manage to sell at highs to buy back at a much lower rate. That's what made me good profits throughout the years. With the most recent rally I have sold a certain perentage that I bought at an average price of ~$220 for $365 which is a great profit. Not long after that it went up to $500 but it came back down to below $300 very short after that.

You are basically asking: "are you a person who is never wrong"?
Bitcoin price can be predicted only to a certain degree and even then you need some base to build your assumptions on: for example bitcoin news, which can influence the price.

Honestly, i don't believe this market is run by the market but by big whales. They tend to play with while making millions of profit. When some more 'people' step in the market and spread will be bigger and analytst would be able to predict an outcome.

Right now however the only way to make some decent profit is ride the waves of the market.

market movers maybe. other than that it's purely based on luck. there is a 50% chance of you being right or wrong. it's that simple.

I haven't seen anyone around here who predicted bitcoin price with 100% accuracy all the time. Whales are still able to manipulate the whole market if they want. 

Well yes, maybe only whales can predict the price 100% of the time since they are the only ones that can move it when they want and if they want. But people like this and with this much wealth are not wasting time on forums and bragging how they will move the price up or down!

Well I know people with a lot of money can manipulate the price, Im not so sure if they actually profit from it because I do not fully understand the strategy but manipulating is not predicting.

Surely the whales did predict that, but they won't share their information...
Just kidding, honestly I think (like stocks) nobody can predict it all the time right, some have luck, some have some skill.

In most cases trusting your gut is a good way to speculate.

People (excluding whales) could have said so many things, and whales just tried to make a fool of such people by manipulating the markets and trapping these people and making money out of their pockets...

So, I can say that there have been many who could have predicted the right numbers, but they have been made right just by manipulation...

Yes but skill in bitcoins is not like in other investments. News about bitcoin dont happen everyday and even less if you only take in count news that could potentially change the price so how can you try to predict it without too many statistics either since bitcoin is a fairly new currency

Back in 2011, I urged people to hold (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=22671.msg299821#msg299821), calling them greedy and stupid for selling (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=22671.msg306959#msg306959) at single digit prices.

As the price peaked in 2013, I urged people to switch their BTC to physical goods (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=246650.msg3377692#msg3377692) that would maintain exposure to BTC and cushion a fall, saying it was "worth selling your soul for."

In 2014, when the price hit a dead cat bounce up to $600 from $400, I warned about the dangers of only valuing investments in BTC (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=665403.msg7514689#msg7514689) during a period of inflated BTC value (or a bubble).

Early this year when the market was dipping under $200, I gave encouragement to those who feared they were mining at a loss (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=927497.msg10183377#msg10183377).

Just before the latest price jump from $220 to $490, I predicted we will see a coming $800/BTC within 2 years (https://bitscan.com/articles/mining-another-year-still-just-as-nasty).

With all my respect, what would you say for now ?

That interview was only a couple weeks ago.  Read it, then ask me my opinion again when we reach $800.  ;)

Just when i saw that you have commented here after me, i thought to myself (He must be a little bit insulted that i did not even read that last interview, actually i did, but after i posted here, so i thought, that you will write something like read the interview first). As other your suggestions was so close, i can't see no reason not to ask you again this question when we reach 800$. Thanks for the great presence here in bitcointalk.

Eventually it is a guessing game, because nobody controllers the masses and so the market. With the right tools you can give it a try but you can't guarantee succes. Else people would be very very rich making money owning the market.

ipse se nihil scire id unum sciat  ;)

Predict bitcoin prices with 100% of wins its near impossible. There a a lot of thinks that can change the price. The gold price is more stable and i think that no one can predict the it 100%.

Well those predictions are pretty ''wide'' predictions. Saying bitcoin will be 800$ in 2 years is not a very good prediction is it. And the others arent even predictions at all.

Nasty, you are one of the legends. I'm excited to see 800$ again, it's been a long time. Right now I'm accumulating as much coins as I can. I have to be ready when the time comes.

There are some traders who predict the price of Bitcoin but only in the long term and often it works. The price depends on external factors .. for example, such as the terrorist attack in Paris. Exactly predict the price is practically impossible.