Bitcoin Forum

Can anyone gibe me a date for the block halving please? Also is it 100% guaranteed to happen at this time?

It will happen at block 420000. Bitcoin tries to maintain it's block frequency at an average of 10 minutes in the long term but due to increase in hashrate during the midst of the difficulty term, it is impossible for it to be at 10 minutes. However, we can more or less tell where it is. It will happen at approximately 2016-07-22 UTC. Of course, if the blocks gets delayed at 419999 due to varience, it would be pushed back slightly.

You may want to check the http://bitcoinclock.com/ to see the latest prediction. It changes now and then but it should happen roughly in Jul-2016.

This is a good site as well and has other useful data

http://bitcoinblockhalf.com/

hope that helps

bears in mind that this is an estimation, it will kick-in early than the countdown, not too much early though

Reward-Drop ETA date: 07-22-2016 20:02:27

The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 25 to 12.5 coins.

look at here http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
and here http://bitcoinclock.com/
or here https://www.google.com

232 days to go. When do you think the real BTC rush is going to start?

hi hamp!!!
if so, you think who price will rise after this date?
and if a lot off miners switch off his networks because they can't earn enough???
what will happen?

i think it will rise early, before the halving will be in play

don't worry about miners, they can take profit, even if the halving was going to enter tomorrow and the price was the same as it is right now

hum..
sorry...
i really don't understand this assertion.
but if you can explain me how it will be possilble, i will appreciate it.

Most miners usually have big farms with cheap electricity and space. Due to the operating cost, it doesn't take them too long to ROI. Even with the Bitcoin halving, their earnings would be halved at most. I believe that most of the miners would have already or close to reaching ROI. Most would probably not turn it off.

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If the difficulty decreases by a huge percentage suddenly, the halving will come earlier and vice versa. These are nowhere accurate.

I know you say if, but the difficulty won't come down significantly. It will rather go higher than lower with the pools hoping to profit from the block halving rally that will come.

There are some calculations done that even if the price was a bit under $100, mining would still be profitable for the most of the mining farms. So when the halving occurs, the block size reward will half, then all these miners will need is price around $200. Currently we are at $350 so you see how much profit they are actually pocketing!

agree with amph - I think it will go up in anticipation of the halving. I expect 2016 to be a good year and want to accumulate now.

ahahhaha

so.. you're saying us who bitcoin have 2000 years and more???

ahahhahahaa

 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Oh waw this is actually a nice to see when it will happend.
232 day until that happen is a long time so yeah.

Steady rise from here and it some point we'll go into another insane bubble.  What i think might happen is we just go up over next few months and sit at around $800.

And how are you so sure of that?
I know that most miners are big players, still, having 50% of the reward is a big drop.

because it is already happening  ;D, someone is artificially fixing the market in preparation of the halving, and possible swings that may occur

even litecoin halving did produced an increase, which one quite good(x10 almost), i'm expecting a similiar scenario minus the x10, but more along the line of a return to 1k or around it

I'm not so sure of that...
Last halving the price was stable for a while, I mean a few months, before anyting changed.
I don't know if they saved their last 50BTC rewards before selling or what, but truth be told that this is very uncertain on what will happen to the market.

Hasn't the Litecoin halving coincided with the scammer that ran a ponzi scheme in China? I always thought that was the reason that we have seen that crazy price increase this summer in Litecoin, the same price increase that has followed with the exactly the same dump.

with the block reward halfing pretty soon ( in like 8 months), i wonder when we are going to start seeing changes in price influenced by the halfing

It's something we simply can't predict. It can happen tomorrow, or we can start seeing the block halving bull run starts 1 or 2 months before the actual halving day. I am fairly sure we are already slowly going up due to the comming block halving. It's only waiting for the extreme bull run that can happen at any time.

check out this post maybe helpful:

Bitcoin Futures Guide - The Bitcoin Halvening: What Is It and What Will Its Effect on Price Be?

http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/bitcoin-blog/the-bitcoin-halvening-what-is-it-and-what-will-its-effects-on-price-be

If bitcoin halving doesn't happen on exact date than how bitcoin clock calculate the exact date 2016-07-22? Quite confusing to understand this one. It is supposed to happen on july next year as i know from long time ago.

I did not know there were still so many months to go. I understood it is a thing that you cannot tell precisely, so I did not care very much.

Thanks to all you guys for instructing us.

I expect the effects to happen 3-4 months away from the halving.

I think the effect is already happening now, look at the price of Bitcoin, it got increased pretty significantly ;)
I can't imagine the price when the halving happens :P
I hope we can at least touch $800 ::)

The block intervals is on average, 10minutes if the hashrate does not increase. However, the hashrate would probably increase for every difficulty period right now and the blocks will be slightly faster. Overtime, the estimated time will decrease due to the shorter block intervals during each difficulty periods. The estimator probably uses 10 minutes and multiply it by the blocks left. It would adjust itself automatically if the blocks become faster or slower suddenly I believe.

The truth is, the average is 10 minutes, but its common to have block solved in like 1 minute.
And it's a matter of "luck", not because the total hashrate increased.

I guess we will see a rise in the price a little back before the halving... If you take the Litecoin halving has an example, we can predict that the price will rise before the halving and probably go down a bit after. Now, to what price will we see it rise, I can't say...

It's actually variance. In the long run, without huge difficulty/hashrate increases, we are likely to see close to 10 minutes per block especially when we're talking about a block that's close to a year away. But yes, hashrate is actually increasing right now since its winter in some countries and the price increase.

If you have blocks solved in 1 minute, that can last only for at max 2 weeks, because then difficulty calibration kicks in.

The halving will occur on the 420000th block. It is not certain what day, as some blocks are mined a minute apart, some block are mined over an hour apart. If I remember correctly, we are about 2-5 months from the halving.

Not so sure given how much everybody expects bitcoin to pump that it actually will..

If blocks are 1 minute apart, the difficulty adjustment will be in 1.4days. The difficulty adjustments is based on number of blocks, not time.

http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com

Apply some basic math. We are at block 386,654 so we are 33,346 blocks away from halving. That is more like 7.7 months away, not 2-5. Even with the skew caused by a rising hashrate I doubt we will ever reach it in 2 months.

This. Markets don't usually do what people expects from them. They tend to do the opposite, actually.



By averaging the last 20 diff changes, today I'm getting an estimated halving date of 2016-07-17, 5 days earlier than bitcoinclock.

There is really no way to predict when the halving is going to happen. There needs to be another around 830,000 more bitcoins mined before the halving happens. So most people's prediction is around another 230 more days before halving happens. When it does happen, miners will only be paid 12.5 bitcoin if they find the block.

According to Bitcoin Protocol, it's halving will occur exactly after the 420000^th block gets solved! Since each block gets solved nearly after every 10 minutes (approx.), the ETA for reward halving is 22-07-2016.

You can check these links to know more about the bitcoin clock and the countdown for the next reward halving.

1. http://bitcoinclock.com/

2. http://bitcoinblockhalf.com/

This website is only someone's prediction, it is just going off assumptions like 3, 600 bitcoins are mined everyday and a block is made every 10 minutes. So this website isn't very trustworthy, just like every other website like it.

But it gives a rough estimate. You can't really predict this stuff because the block generation time is based on estimates, but it's more often than not 10 minutes.

Average time between blocks is roughly 9.1minutes right now based on: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty. The site needs to factor in the possible difficulty increase or decrease. Currently, it looks like it's going to increase slightly more.

You can see it on bitcoinclock.com
Free tip from Crypto Clone: The halving will be a golden opportunity for arbitrage traders USD/BTC and even altcoin markets, keep a close eye on price changes and be ready!

if everyone expects a price surge its guaranteed to plummet right? lol

no, everyone was expecting it for litecoin and it happened, with bitcoin it's even more sure that it will happen

the real question is when?

i remenber this pump before halving day
i hope will be the same with bitcoin!!!!
https://i.imgur.com/LDwPiCA.jpg

Cool, but that's just a detail: the important thing here is to understand that the mining of BTC is set to happen in a certain way, inflation is regulated, and there's the difficulty adjustment that takes care of increasing computational power, so the inflation curve can only be tricked for around 2 weeks... oops, for around X number of blocks, then it will be leveled again.

On the block number 420000, the halving will occur from current 25BTC to 12.5BTC generation.
Litecoin almost got 6 fold surge at the time of it's halving. I too believe bitcoin prices also will go to unimaginable levels on this halving.

Wishful thinking !

When litecoin halved nothing actually happened. The pump happened as a result of a chinese ponzi scheme.

the pump that happnened prior to the halving(the x10 one) was because of the hype around the halving, it did not occur the same date of the halving, because it is not how it work with the halving, is not a dating or something, it can happen around the halving that's it

I'm sure when I checked last,  the latest block halfing took a few months before any price increase.  I'm got a feeling there 's going to be alot of disappointment this halfing.

However, the pump of an altcoin like Litecoin could have happened... by mandate.
Why in hell would so many people buy Litecoin just because the block halving is coming?
Doesn't make sense.
Somebody started the downhill roll, and sheeps followed.

because everyone think that it will increase, so they begin to buy en mass, then you get the increase demand, that bring even more demand

yes we can say the usual "it was at first done by manipulators then fish come in to be sucked into it", but sometime i believe that a simply small demand can evolve into a bigger one

The halving day will be earlier than expected, as the hashing power keeps on increasing. The latest increase was 8.7%, the next one is estimated to be 8.3%.

Another one that can't understand how it works.

Let's try to be more clear:

1) hashing power increases

2) THEN COMPUTATIONAL POWER REQUIRED TO MINE INCREASES AS WELL

If they cut mining times now by 50%, they find themselves with mining time INCREASED at next DIFFICULTY ADJUSTMENT (this should hint you something) so much that they will not earn more.

Essentially, hashing power increase is just to overthrow competition.

Call them fish, call them sheeps... same for me :D

It seems to be in the mid-2016, July as mentioned by everyone...
Depends all upon the miners how much more farms they will be getting to work based on difficulty increase and rewards halving...

There's no specific date, as the halving roll occur on a certain block number, and blocks are not mined exactly the same time apart, some are seconds apart. The most accurate estimate we have right now is somewhere between March and July 2016.

However, as you can have a block mined seconds apart from another one, you can equally have a block that will require more time later on.
The AVERAGE TIME to mine a block is calibrated with each difficulty adjustment, you can't escape that.

On this basis, we can take the overall number of blocks generated up to now and calculate the average time of coin mining.
As you can see here (https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=), the difficulty adjustment doesn't mistake: the production is linear, no matter how much hashing power has been put into the system.
So the July estimate is pretty close, surely not by the day, but also surely won't bee one or two weeks earlier than the estimated day.

This is true actually. The biggest pump in Litecoin has happened in July and was fueled by the Chinese manipulator. Threads and even YouTube videos about this are everywhere.

We can't compare Litecoin halving and Bitcoin halving though! Differences between these two are huge!

That will be amazing to see how price will get bigger :) much bigger with this one event.... and in next 4 years another halving :D
GoGo Bitcoin!!

This year' halving effect will be much bigger than next one as the existing bitcoin number will be much bigger proportionally.

seams like it moved to JUNE!!! WTF is that all about. 2 months difference?

I would say the opposite: there's ALREADY many BTC in circulation, AND we seem to have hit a wall into the mainstream that takes a bit of time to go down.
So the question is: will people want to pay more for one BTC?
My answer is no. If they would, they did already.

Halving of the reward doesn't say anything to the upcoming mainstream user, and they will only pay what they think it's worth it.

My forecast is that when the halve will come, miners will raise the price to stay afloat.
BUT then people won't pay that much more.
Now, the only problem here is if miners are already earning much more than a Bitcoin is worth.
If they do, then no problem.
If they don't, then some inevitably will close the shop.

And then, we will have a drop in value instead than an increase, because when the community will see that people are NOT eager to pay much more than the actual price, there will be a fall of reputation.
Many mining companies will close because of this and there will be a mini-collapse of Bitcoin this year because of this.

THEN in the future the value will rise again, but I wouldn't expect it anytime this year.

This will allow for a REDISTRIBUTION of Bitcoin nodes. Part of Bitcoin philosophy.

I HOPE I am wrong, but this is my feeling at the moment.

What are you talking about? From what I could tell halving was always expected to hit in July. It will hit exactly at 420.000 blocks
Current Block count: 398727   Expected reward drop: 2016-07-13 05:06:33 UTC (21 weeks, 17 hours, 30 minutes)

http://bitcoinclock.com/ (http://bitcoinclock.com/)

Slightly concerning the price won't rise as high as it should as a result of the halving due to all of this potential HF FUD.

I seen many coins reach the block halving and the price remains the same lol

Maybe the build up to it will cause a pump but after that then no not at all! lol

I think you might be right.  For some reason I am starting to feel the rise before halving will be lackluster.  If Bitcoin avoids bad press it should be stable at least.

Could it be that since people know about the halving in advance, the price has adjusted before hand?

Some great sites have been posted. Make sure to check them out. This forum is also a huge wealth of information. We've been on here for years :)

It's sure that the big pump that everyone is expecting will not happen EXACTLY during the halving, let alone at the exact expected day, it will happen before or later, but within a reasonable margin, it's not going to be exact, so yes, things are starting moving now and will not stop, the price rise will be smooth until FOMO explodes this summer given the amount of good news being too much to justify not owning any Bitcoin.

Yeah but with like 70% of bitcoin mined already i dont think it matters much.  As in every halving will likely create a massive great bubble until we have found out the true value of the bitcoin network.  Interesting times ahead though for sure.

For this and next halving, there is some kind of halving effect. But for the one in 2024, the effect will be every small.

How can you know the effect is very small on 2024 are you from the future we dont even know what will happen after this incoming halving.

a few months longer block halving occurs. we just wait a short time. get ready to get a higher quality bitcoin.

The first impact of the halving made bitcoin jump from the 250 to 400 dollars,i dont know if with becoming close the time to happen speculation will affect bitcoin value again and to bigger ammounts then 500 dollars.

you mean 2028, because the reward will be around 1, also in line with the prediction of satoshi

but bears in mind that the mined coins, do not actually have all that pressure on the market, miners are not selling 100% of their coins, i can argue they are not even selling 50%, since they don't need that much to cover their bills

what was the date of the previous halving?

Are you sure about this?
If you buy some hardware today, you spend money and that hardware is obsolete in less than one year.
Then there's electricity.
I'm not so sure they are earning so much.

Mining farms are mostly cashing out a very small portion of their mined coins. And most of the money from cashed out coins will be used to buy even better hardware. They constantly keep increasing their hardware to not fall behind since the competition between the Chinese mining farms is very high level. At this point the majority of their coins gets saved offline for when the price climbs up. They don't dump a lot at once as they can easily push back the price to sub $100 levels without much effort.

I repeat: are you sure about this?
If you go to a calculator you can see that  after buying new hardware and with electricity cost the reward ENDS after few months.
This means you have to buy new hardware.
I am sure they are making some money, but I'm not so sure they are making millions.
If it's so, then why I can't make the same by buying hardware? Calculators say income will end after 3-6 months, depending on difficulty increase.

You can view the live countdown of bitcoin halving by visiting cryptocoinsnews.com
There is a widget placed which will look like this:

http://i63.tinypic.com/14j3xpu.png

If you want more detailed based and a more stylish clocks, then I recommend these:

1. Stylish version (http://bitcoinclock.com/)

2. Detailed version (http://bitcoinblockhalf.com/)

Most mining farms are located in China. China are known to have good climate, low labor cost and low electrical cost. With these factors, their profitability is already quite high. Since big ASIC makers like Bitmain being based in China, they can potentially factor out the high shipping cost with discounts given at high ASIC buying volumes. Most farms have hardware that have already ROIed so they're making pure profits now.

Have you ever looked into mining yourself?

yeah i'm sure they are earning like 4 times what they are consuming, so at best 25% goes in the bill, and that only with the recent diff increase, 1 month ago was six times, and before that was even higher 8 times or more

It depends on the speed at which the blocks are mined. New technology -> faster time of halving. Check bitcoinclock.

Google is your friend, one of the sites which predicts the halving date is:

http://bitcoinblockhalf.com/

You have to keep in mind that the Bitcoin mining algorithm is set up that roughly  every 10 minutes a
block is being mined which now is rewarded with 25 bitcoins. Every 210,000 blocks the reward is being
halved, so with this info you can roughly calculate the dates of the halving events.

What is Block Halving?
//I'm still a newbie at mining btc, and sorry if this question kinda oot

right now mining a block receives an economic reward of 25 bitcoins for all the effort involved. the 2016 'halving' is the reduction of the reward to 12.5 bitcoins, and it will happen in July. halving happens every four years. the last halving was in November 2012, from 50 bitcoins to the present 25 bitcoins.

This thread speculates as to what will happen to the market price of a bitcoin before and after the halving in July. Some say the price will progressively rise from now until July, and some say not. it's hard to say what will happen. in 2012 next to nothing happened to the price, but that was an entirely different bitcoin epoch.

My pants will be on fire when it happens, damn, i cannot wait for it, price doubling will be awesome.

http://bitcoinblockhalf.com/
the countdown its still very long time. what should we do before halving happen?

Yes we have still four five months. We should save out bitcoins and try to buy them these days at a lower proce.
So that we can sell it later at a higher price.

One thing i wonder is that when the halving will start, for how long the price of bitcoin will increase? and how much can it go up?

1000$ or 2000$..any ideas?

no one know, but you can expect another 100% increase or around that probably $700 as a new bottom

i can see 1k 2k as a pean but nothing more tha that, unless some crazy thing happen

No one can tell that as it can possibly go the other way around. Still, everything points out that there'll be an increase. Let's just hope so.

As far as I know these days farming countries are not that rich economically as compared to those who are relying on their industry and inorganic products. Mining might be good in china since china is affordable for every thing including farming as well but bitcoin is much better paid off than farming or mining.

I have learnt several factors about mining and done some research about it. I never thought of mining since the electrical costs are so high.

The halving would at most halve the earnings and would probably have an impact on the prices. If you didn't know, most mining farms started in around 2014 and they have made lots of profits. There are still some scrap value for the ASICs that are obsolete too. A documentary about a mining farm in China:https://youtu.be/K8kua5B5K3I.

Of course you're asking about the date because you don't want to miss the halving party, right?

Strange, because ANY calculator I used showed me that after having spent money for hardware and electricity, after the first 3-4 months I pay back the costs, and what remains from that moment on is not much really, and after 6-7 months you better turn off your old hardware because difficulty has grown so much that it becomes counter-economic.

many of them already roi'ed on their hw since they have mining on the s7 from many months already

so it's all profit for them minus consumption, you can do the math easily, at 0.05 cent they are consuming $45 a month and earn almost 200 a month from a single s7, this is x4+ higher

with a 4:1 ratio, they certainly don't need to dump 50% of their coins unless they want to for other reason like manipulating the market to buy more coins...

To get an idea what block having is I recommend to read this Bitcoin wiki thread https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

You are essentially saying that online calculators are wrong, right?

from where you get that from my post?  i've used an online calculator, and any calculator right now is telling me that 1 s7 = $200 per month, and it was higher before much higher i know there is the diff but you need to begin from when the s7 was launched, with double the earning

That 200$ per month is... for how many months?
For what I see, it's only for the first few months.
You have your ROI, but then, difficulty (usually) increases and increases, and after very few months your income becomes nearly nothing.
You can't really say "200$ per month" in Bitcoin mining, because that changes FAST because of difficulty adjustments.

With all this extra hashing grunt arriving might be we even get halved in June? The date is slowly creeping closer.

It seems some people can't really catch how it works.
The difficulty adjustment is a mechanism to KEEP BITCOIN MINING STABLE ALONG TIME.

This means that even if tomorrow you throw in 5 billion trillion gazillion petahash computational power in the network, the next difficulty adjustment will annihilate your effort to mine soooooo fast by increasing the due amount.

Any expert correct me if I am wrong please.

That's the principle but it's not working out like that. The halving date has moved up compared to what the sites predicted a few months ago. Look at the dates at the start of this thread. It was 20 days later than it is now.

I guess there are limits to the efficiency of the mechanism.
It's not true what I have written in my previous post: if you would throw in the network an incredibly huge amount of computing power tomorrow, you could actually mine all the BTC remaining to be mined in the next two weeks.
This means that if the computing power that is being put in the network increases much, the halving date will actually draw closer by some measure.
But at the same time, you can't put so much computational power to close it THAT much, because every two weeks the adjustment of difficulty will cut your legs making things fair again.

How is it not exactly that? Difficulty is made to keep btc stable no?

Yep, but as the guy above pointed out difficulty only adjusts every couple weeks. Some serious increases in hardware have been introduced recently so they outpace the adjustment for a little while.

Can you please show me how you make so much money on this calculator?
The parameters.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator

Block halving ends  i think july. You can check this countdown to know when block halving ends.
Here's the link
http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
I hope it helps.

Along with havling, Bitcoin Roundtable Consensus has been made. which can result in increase in the botcoin price. yhe major point of agreement includes   SegWit is expected to be released in April 2016,  The code for the hard-fork will therefore be available by July 2016 and  If there is strong community support, the hard-fork activation will likely happen around July 2017.

yeah but you need to think in the whole picture, what i means is that at the beginnign it was not 200 per month, but 400, so it does not matter if in 3 months it will be 100, because the average earning for a single s7, per month, was 200 since its launch

According to the website, the reward will halve on 5 August. Does it take into account the hash rate increase?