Bitcoin Forum

Historically, bitcoin's price goes down during Christmas celebratory season or after. The holiday is followed by new year's eve and Chinese new year on Feb 8 and celebrations. Play it safe, sell some of your coins now only to re-buy as the price goes down.

it's not full proof though.  Look at price right now 411.97 on coinbase.  We are up quite a bit.  I don't know that we will drop a lot for events above.

Part of reason is the difficulty level.  Look at it there has been a huge jump in difficulty compared to normal level.  I don't see it dropping quick with miners getting less and less.   So I think this year will be a little different.

As with everything in the BTC world there is no foolproof plan.

Only deal with what you're OK losing.

Do your research and don't necessarily rely on others.

You should change thread title.  Say "Almost Foolproof plan" as you agree it is no foolproof plans in bitcoin.   And I could be all wet.

I just see difficulty going up and up... I don't think your going to get so lucky that you can call it fool proof in today's mining.

Sounds like the opposite of foolproof.  I'd call it extremely high risk to sell 6 months prior to halving.

Dumb plan. too risky.

You mean fool proof? If you do it, it proves you're a fool.

Dunno, BTC keep going up, at some point its going to go back down, make it will be back down 20% which is still much higher than before. We know it is going to happen, we just don't know when.

Anyone else find it ironic that he said to 'play it safe' by selling your BTC. Only thing safe is to hold for the long haul.

and Chinese New year

400$ became support point right now. They tested under 400 but support worked today, it went back from $400.09. I think it's fair to say holding is better for Christmas, we might see a small rally before the year ends.

Of course this could very well work.. Or you might just end up regretting selling your coins at $400..

Christmas time could lead to large amounts of dumps in BTC prices as we see consumers moving money out of bitcoin and into items and gifts..
My money is on that by boxing day we might be sitting lower than $400.. But then again it could be at $800 by then too. Its super hard to tell with BTC which way the market is going to trend really.

I'd hold onto your bitcoins until you can afford to get rid of them... Or you make mad profit.

I wouldn't be too sure that the price will drop as holidays approach, as people do tend to stop thinking about rational spending and end up spending
large sums of their funds exactly on holiday season. There's no sure way of knowing what will happen, but i would do just the opposite of what you suggest and
buy now, and then wait end of Dec or mid Jan to sell.

cheers

If I have learned something after looking at Bitcoin charts for years is that past performance doesn't guarantee future performance, therefore you are just risking that a past even t will repeat again which is not worth risking your coins for.

Seems risky to be off bitcoin for holidays, you can loose an increasing point we don't know if it will go down before increasing another time. I don't want to loose the train on this bitcoin climbing price.

You weren't around here in late '12 early '13 were you.

Historically? You mean last year? That's a pretty small sample size.

When I read that I just had to check it out, because that's not how I remembered it.

When I looked at the Dec15-Jan15 historical charts I saw that the prices actually rose around Christmas in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013.

Only in early January 2015 did the price fall, and that occurred when Bitstamp was hacked.

Sounds like a lame attempt to try to get people to sell because you missed the chance to buy below $400. You had almost a year to stock up on coins for less than $300 and a couple of opportunities to accumulate at less than $200. Proven fool.

We have just started the bullish trend again. The christmas holidays are not going to stop this one for sure..

We will probably see a lot less action around the holidays, but don't expect to be able to buy insanely cheap coins this year.

Doesn't the price rise though on holidays? Because right now it's approaching Christmas and the price has shot up quite a bit.

Price may drop due to a lower volume during those days. Also, people may need some extra cash for their holiday expenses, such as gifts, having people over or going on holidays.

So I don't think the price going up is related to Christmas, but because we are finally done going down.

Here's hoping.  I was wanting to buy some btc but price has been holding stay and rising for the last couple of months.  I don't know if it could drop down to old amounts now.  Would be good so I could buy some but maybe we are taking off now  :)

there are no real correlation with festivity and price decrease and increase, for instance, in the black friday day the price went up

so why in christmas it should go down, i think it the opposite, we must likely be near 500 at that point

The safest way of playing it is just to hold for now and not sell when the price increases a tiny bit.
If you sell and you make a 100% profit, then yes you should be okay to sell for now.

Really?

Because, looking at what happened historically, I don't see it.

• Here's December 2011 on MtGox (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-12-01zeg2012-03-01ztgSzm1g200zm2g365zl) - a ~40% rise through December, followed by a further climb, before falling back to "only" a 40% rise by the start of March.
• ...and December 2012 on Stamp (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg120zczsg2012-12-01zeg2013-03-01ztgSzm1g200zm2g365zl) - a ~20% rise to the end of the year, followed by a spectacular rise at the start of 2013.
• For completeness, December 2013 (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg120zczsg2013-12-01zeg2014-03-01ztgSzm1g200zm2g365zl) - we did see a drop, of ~30% to the year's end, which then continued through to the end of February.
• ...and last December (2014) (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg120zczsg2014-12-01zeg2015-03-01ztgSzm1g200zm2g365zl) - a drop of ~25% by New Year, with the drop continuing until mid-January before heading back up again (not hitting the January 1st price, though - we've only recently recovered to that level).
  

I don't know whether this December-February will see a rise or a fall, but I do know that past years don't justify the statement "Historically, bitcoin's price goes down during Christmas celebratory season or after." Hell, December-February 2012-13 is what I look at to cheer myself up when I'm worried BTC might never rise again!

If it does go down during or after Christmas, I would rather just hold right now and buy in some more when I get the chance.
I'm in it for the long term so I don't feel the need to sell right now.

I agree, I'll do so. I also say in the OP that people should only sell just a portion (implying not to sell all) of their BTC just in case.

So what's your point? Will bitcoin stop being volatile and go to the moon in 2016? lol

You can't say that this will happen for sure. We'll just have to wait and see what will happen.
I like to hold my bitcoins for now since I'm seeing it as a savings account. If it does drop I might be able to buy more.

My point is 'past years don't justify the statement "Historically, bitcoin's price goes down during Christmas celebratory season or after."' Regarding your question, "I don't know whether this December-February will see a rise or a fall".

tl;dr - the OP's premise is not supported by the historical data.

Edit: Volatility, however, is historically low. It's been rising over the last month, but it's still much lower than it has been. (https://btcvol.info/)

Historical data does in fact stand behind what I'm saying in the OP.
https://i.imgur.com/rWxksIm.jpg?1

https://i.imgur.com/F94DNIW.jpg?1

https://i.imgur.com/3SppvSp.jpg?1

I'm was just trying to keep things short. I know there are variations from year to year, but all an all, ever since bitcoin trading started becoming big there are major drops around this period each year (the above images are all the same period each year). This year, we're also seeing an serious rise. IMO it's perfectly rational to believe that the price will go down again somewhere down the road at the not so distant future.

Well, if "this time of year" starts in October I'd have to admit that 2012 and 2013 did see drops, despite rises afterwards - and we did see a fall this November. October through to Chinese New Year does seem a long period to be basing this on, though.

Only sure thing is that we can not predict price at all. If we touch $500-600, i could cash amount i have bought recently (at $330)but my main stash wont be touched before five digits. Personally, i think we could see higher price around holidays and small dump after, but all that is pure gamble.

Historically speaking we should have a pump every mid november/early december... but no history involved here! So I would not follow any kind of advice, sorry.  ;D
Actually, I'd rather hold as usual.

nah. i am not planning to sell at this price. if it indeed goes lower, then it's fine too. i am holding, any price the comming weeks is not important to me. i look at the bigger picture. if it goes down a lot, for example to lower $300 levels, then i might buy to increase my coins. i don't think that will happen.

This isn't a bad price, when things get out of hand at 2x these levels - then, you are screwed if you are still out.

You will be probably right, because the price will drop from this bubble in about a week or less. So my thoughts are - sell at $450 if it even reaches it.

Funny enough I was just reading and commenting through the thread that it said quite opposite, how the Christmas will make us go up since there is a lot of buying happening at this time of the year!

OP don't do this. Last Christmas yes, there was a quite a drop during holidays, but we were in the downtrend. You do remember 2013, no drop at all but the ATH!

2015 holiday season can be much different in its way. No-one knows this!

The only way this plan could fail is if bitcoin volatility sudenly stopped and someone strapped it on a rocket to the moon. :P 400$ too high for the levels we saw during 2015 so it's a safe to assume it'll go down again, hard to tell how much but it will.

How can you know if price won't rise until near Christmas then fall to a bigger price than the 420 of today?

Supposing that your Christmas dump theory is right

Towelie sell at 420. Lochness Monster buy back at about tree fitty. What could go wrong?

I think I'll keep on holding and if and when the price goes down, I'll be able to buy more bitcoins.
To me, bitcoin is all about saving. I'm not in it to make just profits. I'm working towards a better future for myself so that I don't have to worry about money later.

Apart from the fact that it doesn't.

Never mind the images I posted? There's a similar trend around this time each year that makes bubbles pop, this one is also popping sooner or later. Christmas holidays, new year's eve and Chinese new year are just more safety thresholds.

This happening last year doesn't mean it will happen this year as well. I will look at the pattern when this happens 5 years in a row. That's when I'll believe that right now is the best time to dump and buy when the holidays come around.

Sell during a bull run..

no.

There is no content in your images for the mind. There is no similar trend this time each year.

Do I think we could have a pullback? Most certainly.

I thought so too regarding the price going down due to christmans, new years evening etc.
But for now we are climbing.This is a risky situation.
I wouldn't sell any coins now.But maybe you could wait to buy some more in hopes that price could be a bit lower.

Seems like this prediction wasn't that far off. Who's reburying bitcoins now?  ;) I do!

Almost fool-proof? Heh, no one can time the markets lol. The trend may be historically repeating but what's happening is the lows seem to go higher than it was before. How would that be fool-proof for you, then? It's no different from buying low and selling high, I guess.

Not sure but if you sold on the day you posted this thread then you are still in the red or ( btc was under 400 now 420)?

It was a rather simple prediction. I said the price will go down again, and it did, with potential to go down ever further. Btc-e 410 right now.

I see good luck to you ;)

Following OP's advice, you still wouldn't have had the opportunity to turn a profit. It's easy to predict that what goes up must come down. Much harder to say from how high and how low subsequently.

Yes, because this method is already exposed. Speculators try the other way now. Don't use this advice.
For short term sell above 440$, buy below 420$.

I already turned in profit selling some BTC @ 455$ and rebuying @ 425$. Pretty neat I'd say.

December 9th.

Bubble popping in action

https://anonmgur.com/up/c285d8522e55050c1e9e6d92f290e8bc.jpg

We've still got plenty of time till Feb 8 for the price to fall even further, but my prediction was correct. I'd like to know what all the wannabe moon men in this topic think now that the bubble has popped and the price keeps falling.

https://anonmgur.com/up/176bc95e96af903b66fcb3f2a30d1ea3.jpg