Bitcoin Forum

Here is my theory.  The first big Btc boom coincided with two things, christmas and Silk Road.  I am sure lots of people were getting ready to party and Btc just happened to be the easiest way to order stuff from SR.  SR gets busted and no real big booms again.  Now its in the lead up to christmas again and the price is going up again.  Coincidence?  There are probably dark net sites somewhere causing the boom. 

Nah don't think that. Silk road + mnt. gox pumped the price, there was no real innovation just air and rumours which made the price bump. Currently i has to do with the block halving I think.
Because again, there is no positive news...

The price was pumped up after the Silk Road was busted, not before. The Silk Road bust made the news, then the USA held a meeting to decide whether to ban Bitcoin or not. After the meeting it announced it was not banning Bitcoin, and the price skyrocketed. The pump started literally straight after that announcement.

Yeah we can see bump in the time of Christmas due to money need people who is on bitcoin they start to utilize the bitcoin. Then Price will automatically increase at that time.

With much probability will go down. People will want to buy gifts for Christmas. The holders or owners (is the same) of bitcoin will want to do so too. They will try to use their bitcoins to buy presents but are very few the possibilities to buy Christmas or not typically Christmas (but yet) gifts and the only way that they have to have their gifts is to change those. This action will increase the supply and normally the price should go down. This is theory and cannot tell that it will   so for sure. For example the amount of bitcoin added to the market can be very few and not important (unable) to influence the price of bitcoin. Anyhow, the most big probability of the trend that could have the price of bitcoin for Christmas, would be more going down that going high.

We simply don't know exactly why the price is going up. The only thing we can do is make a rough guess. I personally think it's more due to the upcomming block halving. That's the most likely scenario.

i thought it go low but reverse action is going on. Good for us ;)

Yeah exactly we can only speculate about how we want it to go or how we think it will go.
I don't know what silk road is, anyone care to explain?

SilkRoad was a marketplace that people could only access via TOR. There you could buy all kind of things, drugs, weapons, pc parts, fake id's and so on. It was the first merchant that was solely operating with Bitcoin.

well in 2014 there was no pump at all, it could be because we were at 1200 previously, and there was an huge dump going on, or because the festivity does not imply increase in price

2012-2013 and this years seems different they brought a huge pump, 2016 could too because it has all the cards right to do so

wasn't the major bubble in 2013 just because people were scared mtgox was never going to send them cash so they just hit market orders to convert to bitcoin regardless of price?

Too bad the Chinese don't celebrate the Christmas season being that only about 1% of them are Christian.

Not to get into any religious discussion and hijack this thread, I don't really think nowadays Christmas as the holiday and spending your money to give people gifts is really just for the christians/catholics anymore it has now pretty much become the norm for every kid to expect something come this time of the year.

I hope that bitcoin will increase so that I can buy in x-mas.
I am hoping for good deals.

Is this really how it is in China? I only ask because I do not know.

I'm not looking to get in any religious discussion or hijack the thread either. I only brought up the Chinese (meaning the Chinese living in China) because of their btc volume and related it to the OP's topic of Christmas. Apologies to OP if he feels like I hijacked his thread. Was not my intention.

I don't think only christmas shopping will cause pump on price as the one who already have bitcoin spend bitcoin on christmas will not cause bump. We need extra money from outside to actually make price to rise. The block reward halving may have some good effect on price.

If people use their end of year bonuses to buy BTC then there is a chance, but nothing is warranted since people will buy things with BTC too

anything may happen

Yes.

I believe people do tend to spend more on xmass, so it may bring the price up a bit, also; end of the year brings us to the year of the halving, and
some people may see this as a last chance to buy before the price starts it's increase caused by halving.
On another note, the price already moved up quite a bit, so there's a good chance that we will only see stabilization at current price, with no further increase.

I was all of the times hearing arguments how Christmas brings the price down. Now in this thread I am hearing completely opposite! This is quite weird to me!

I guess that people explain things to themselves as they wish! :)

Well Christmas does tend to bring out the worst in humanity.  Take notice of black Friday stompcrushes and the roadways next time you're out.  And who hasn't had family get-togethers such that Silk Road wouldn't have come in handy?  And yes, bonuses are given out too.  God I hate Christmas.

people change their predictions very often. one day they think the price will reach $500 easily before the end of this year. and the other day they think it will go back to below $400 to stay there till next year. i have seen so many people do this lately. they don't know what to say or think anymore.

Christmas bonuses. That could be a reason for the higher prices too!
But I doubt if there are people investing that kind of money in Bitcoin.  :)

I doubt with your story, look at december 2015, price of bitcoin get bullish at november 2015 and down at december 2015
http://i.prntscr.com/9a75343b16484c8287cf3397756ad41f.png

Maybe people started stacking up coins by November then start dumping them starting them Black Friday till Christmas season shopping.
Those buying season may have helped BTC rate to climb but not really a huge jump like we experienced last time when it reached $500

Well, I recon that come January the price will go back into a slump.

Ahh alright, thank you for clearing this up.
Does Silk road still exists?

We will see if Santa Claus will give me 10BTC.
That would be a awesome gift in Christmas.

Yes you are absolutely right.
If many people will going to buy a lot of bitcoin then there is a possibility for everything.

Well I hope so since it's Christmas and it's time for spending and if based on the law of supply and demand, spending than buying can affect prices, more of like going down. Price is pumping up but now but let's hope this will continue.

Probably is the block halving. We are coming nearer and nearer to that point, so there are ups and downs, with the downs ending at a higher price while we approach that.

Some people get scary when they see a price over 400 and begin to sell and that is why there are downs to, but the general trend is to go up.

Yes halving is the reason here and not Christmas. Big dump will happen really this Christmas but at the same time expect more pump because of the big dump price will decrease that others wait so many will still buy. One reason is the upcoming halving. Acquiring coins as much as it can because high price are expected next year.

Even people who don't know Btc know that the only thing you can really use it for is buying stuff off the dark net.  I bet you that even though SR 1 and 2 have been taken down, there are a dozen other sites there flogging illegal stuff.  That coupled with the fact it is christmas, the season of excess, means people are going to be out there partying hard. 

There was no price correlation between thanks giving and bitcoin. I think there will be no relation between Christmas and bitcoin.

I also think it will follow the pattern. The price will up and down a little untill christmas, and then it will fall back to around $350. I think the top will be $550.

The problem with assuming Christmas has anything to do with a Bitcoin price rise is that the retailers turn around and SELL OFF all that Christmas Bitcoin just as fast as it comes in, thus pushing the price right back down again.

 Ditto "Black Friday" or "Cyber Monday" just somewhat bigger numbers involved on BOTH sides of the equasion.


 It's WAY too early for the halfing to be having a real effect on the pricing IMO - more likely 1-2 months before the halfing will be the "halfing price increase".


 I'm fairly sure that most of the current price bouncing is due to the Chinese exchanges being able to take fiat currency directly again, and a mass influx of Chinese trading due to that change.

I don't think so Its dump again. As price increasing in consistent way. This price pump is happening because of festive season like christmas and new year. then people will sell bitcoin for expenses. So demand will be for bitcoin. thats the reason.

Let's assume this will happen.How long will we see another $350?
I think not that long and we will go up again pretty quick.
Many people will start to buy at this price I believe.
This would be also the second attempt which had failed to break the 500 constantly.
The third attempt after that will work out then.We saw the same with the 300 barrier.

I doubt that most of the bitcoin holders will spend any satoshi for christmas, they would better spend fiat because bitcoin price is believed that will increase.

For now I would rather hold than spend. I'm only doing bitcoin on the side, it's not my main income so it's not that big of a deal for me.
I see bitcoin as something I will be use in the future.

Me too, i don't plan to spend any bitcoin for the christmas because i have a feeling that bitcoin will have a higher value next year.

Christmas has passed peacefully. There is no dramatic price action of bitcoin either. There is no effect on price by Christmas.

But what about the dump just after cristmas party ? I think cristmas just left after effect as dump before new year. Hope there will be no drama after and before new year.

If the price movement is less than 20%, it is the normal fluctuation of bitcoin. The market depth is too thin to think a dump is big.

Well, it is certainly down after Christmas.

So, you cannot actually buy that much in the way of christmas presents with Btc.  That means either people were buying dodgy stuff or could they possibly be sending money abroad using it?  There is usually a huge surge in most things economic during the holiday.  Just curious what is causing it with Btc.

It would be nice if you get in there as a Christmas gift. But I go them yourself or buy mining.
Then at least I know it's really me and I've done it myself.