Bitcoin Forum

here is the image

https://i.imgur.com/gxmvM.jpg

original image: https://i.imgur.com/6HYZO.png iirc someone on WA chat room did save a copy of this for the record
the link http://cctforum.com/entries/26-The-not-so-awesome-count-but-hey-can-end-awesome


the time will tell ........

So, according to this chart, we should see / should have seen prices around 3 USD.

You drew a simple consolidation pattern leading to a upside breakout.

I would call it a complex consolidation pattern.

Up and down zig zag within previous ranges getting tighter and tighter... Maybe I should have said textbook consolidation pattern instead of simple.

I guess I may be missing the point, but this chart indicates a sharp crash to $3 followed by a bounce back to near $15 and finally consolidation between $4 and $10 leading to a 2x+ breakout. This didnt happen, but, just as price tends to do, consolidation occurred and expansion tends to follow consolidation.

lol human nature and patterns  ::) so funny  :D

You draw straight lines on data that clearly belongs on an exponential scale...
-Yawn-

u got a problem with straight lines?

intolerant

?

You dont think human nature, especially when humans act in large groups, is played out in patterns?

https://i.imgur.com/NyGGp.png


happy now

Great, now you have posted two different graphs.
 :D
Which one is the real one?

Is human nature playing out in patterns, or is the pattern played out in human nature?

...

(After you've found the answer i want to sincerely apologise for the waste of your time)

Elliott Wave theory eh?

That's a fun one. Problem is, you have to pick out all of your (a,b,c,i,ii,iii) subjectively and of course -- revisit the chart when they don't work out. That has always been my main problem with it, if you can't stick to a call, then what is the validity of the current one?

Drawing a simple trendline from the August 19th 7.58 low to the October 26th 9.74 low gives a long term line, which when extended, implies a trend level of 10.80 - 10.90

So, I'd only be concerned about a major trend change if that level was violated. Of course, you'd have to keep track where the long term trendline is from day to day, as that value increases linearly.
 

It's the same thing, there is only 1 reality, no matter which words you chose to label it.


Three hail marys and you are forgiven my son.

log scale what you asked the second chart was took today and i did manage somehow to move the C point :/ (sry) but the other lines did not got moved since i made the first chart in august, the first chart is from august and the second is from today but on exponential scale



(i risk here to be trolled hard .....)

I think next week will show some upside if 13$ is broken we go up. No graphs.

Is it supposed to be a good thing that you didn't move the other lines? It feels like you are the one trolling... The lines you drawn haven't been accurate thus far, as we should be nearing your "c bottom" by now (nov/dec). Instead we are breaking above $12.

look at price dont look at time that pretty obvious since SC do limit how many days in the future you can load

I look at price everyday and $3-4 is not in the cards my friend. I didnt really understand anything past "look at price don't look at time", the classic wave theorists' mantra. Or isn't it something like "price is approximate, form is paramount, time is least reliable"?  ;D

The only way this sort of technical analysis works is if a critical mass... but not too many... people trade on it.  I don't think that is what is happening.  The bulk of people are cashing in and out based on current price, yesterday's price, and their prediction for the price tomorrow... combined with how quickly they need $, minus how long it will take and what fees are going to be absorbed in the process.  That's the whole game right there and it makes all this technical analysis worth nothing, which is why your chart, and everyone else's, save for a few lucky guesses, will be wrong.  Sorry... but you can't predict prices like this...   :-\

if today we close above 13.10 i was wrong and plain ABC correction remain the alternative

After about a year and half of watching people do these ABC 123 wave analyses I'm pretty confident it's utter horse shit.

+1 Im confident that I heard somewhere that the only people making money of tech analysis are the ones that are selling it

https://i.imgur.com/wACdb.png

the levels are there now is decision time   ;D

Or trading against it when the time is right....

Regarding your second graph. The price is still up at B when it should be down at C. Where did you go wrong?


Why do the call it Elliott Wave Theory? It's not really a theory. At best, it is speculation. Really, it is an textbook example of confirmation bias (look up "Street Light Interference"). It should be called Elliott's Cocaine Hallucination, or Elliott (Wouldn't It Be Great If The Whole Universe Could Be Condensed Into One Simple Equation?) Wave Theory, or Elliott Wave ... Hey There Are Fairies Dancing In My Garden!

https://i.imgur.com/bUHUI.png the orange trend line come from 32 top what it was resistance is now support if we go below that can be considered a trow off but i need to go quickly below and with heavy volume

LOL. had that one night. Cycling along a long street and 4 consecutive street lights went out as i passed them. I was completely spooked.
In my case it would be pretty unlikely for four lights to switch off in such a short time. I susspect either a practical joke or faulty wiring.

But yeah, confirmation bias is real and it messes with what you think is real.
Elliot waves are bias on steroids.

That was my point, essentially. Too subjective to be of any real use.

I watched a series of videos on Youtube where a guy was showing how he could turn a porch light on and off by walking underneath it. He did pretty well, although it wasn't perfect. Anyway, I timed the light and found that it turned on for 30 seconds and then off for 60 seconds every time, over and over. I guess he didn't realize that he had trained himself to walk under the light for 30 seconds and then walk away for 60 seconds.

Typical, those pesky brains fooling ourselfs...
BTW, i know all this because i produce music as a hobby.
When creating music confirmation bias becomes really, realy apparent.
I don't think there is any serious sound engineer that has not, at some point, tweaked a device, heared the change and then realized the device is not connected.
But that is just one example.
There are tons of examples, and that's just the onses concerning experiencing sound.
All our senses are routed through our predictive parts of the brain before being fed to our consiousness. We usually only experience a change to the world if the change is sufficiently unlike our prediction of how it should be.