Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Gambling => Topic started by: Joel_Jantsen on December 14, 2015, 10:30:21 AM



Title: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: Joel_Jantsen on December 14, 2015, 10:30:21 AM
I have been betting at PrimceDice for a long time now.Recently I thought of giving this a try.I simply use the free bits from faucet and bet with 900.0X odds which makes the winning probability as 0.1100%.I know this is next to NULL but there are still some chances right ? I mean if i make 10 such bets everyday for about a month,will there be any chance that I'll actually win someday ? Your comments please.

For Reference :
https://i.imgur.com/7pbpSdW.png


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: mexxer-2 on December 14, 2015, 10:34:56 AM
 Uh 0.11% , 1.1 wins per 1000 rolls, and no its a pretty big chance.


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: Joel_Jantsen on December 14, 2015, 10:40:50 AM
Uh 0.11% , 1.1 wins per 1000k rolls, and no its a pretty big chance.
Can't really understand if you're being serious or just sarcastic   ::).If it actually makes sense to keep hopes on 0.1100% then I'm doing this until I make a huge win.


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: mexxer-2 on December 14, 2015, 10:45:49 AM
Uh 0.11% , 1.1 wins per 1000k rolls, and no its a pretty big chance.
Can't really understand if you're being serious or just sarcastic   ::).If it actually makes sense to keep hopes on 0.1100% then I'm doing this until I make a huge win.
The "k" was a typo. But the probability is correct, just can have some difference in the actual results due to variance.


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: JackpotRacer on December 14, 2015, 11:03:07 AM
I have been betting at PrimceDice for a long time now.Recently I thought of giving this a try.I simply use the free bits from faucet and bet with 900.0X odds which makes the winning probability as 0.1100%.I know this is next to NULL but there are still some chances right ? I mean if i make 10 such bets everyday for about a month,will there be any chance that I'll actually win someday ? Your comments please.

For Reference :
https://i.imgur.com/7pbpSdW.png

you would need to do this bet for about 3 month each day 10 bets to have a hit. but as mexxer already said it is the law of the large numbers and could hit with the first bet or after 4 or 5 month

my question for you would be let's say you win this bet :)
what will you do with the 0.00179800  ???


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: Mars110 on December 14, 2015, 11:19:17 AM

If seen from the possible victory of the bets. I think it's just a waste of time.

Because of the possibility of a win by a very slight amount of% that it is extremely difficult,

But, if you try and keep trying you might win, but you will waste time because of betting which is very Extreme
 :-\ :-\ :-\


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: BTCevo on December 14, 2015, 12:42:01 PM
I have been betting at PrimceDice for a long time now.Recently I thought of giving this a try.I simply use the free bits from faucet and bet with 900.0X odds which makes the winning probability as 0.1100%.I know this is next to NULL but there are still some chances right ? I mean if i make 10 such bets everyday for about a month,will there be any chance that I'll actually win someday ? Your comments please.


Nope doesnt mean that you play 10 times each day guarantee you will win it. 10 times a day that means a month it should be 300 times and dice games is about luck so it will be lower than 300 times and higher than 300 times then you can win it but ho much are you going to spend it if you keep on betting on 0.1%? It is better to make a little profit rather to aim that low winning percentage


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: edmundduke on December 14, 2015, 12:56:24 PM
It is not that hard to hit to be honest because 0.1% has a pretty big chance of it happening. This however does not mean that as you said (10 rolls for 30 days) that you will hit it. It could happen in the first 10 rolls or it could go way longer than the 1 in 1000 or what ever the exact numbers are.
But if you are consistent enough, you will hit it, there is no question about it.


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: Buziss on December 14, 2015, 01:35:49 PM
I have been betting at PrimceDice for a long time now.Recently I thought of giving this a try.I simply use the free bits from faucet and bet with 900.0X odds which makes the winning probability as 0.1100%.I know this is next to NULL but there are still some chances right ? I mean if i make 10 such bets everyday for about a month,will there be any chance that I'll actually win someday ? Your comments please.

If you do 10 such bets every day for 30 days, you would be making a total of 300 bets. The chance for you to lose 300 bets in a row = (1-0.11%)^300 = 71.88%. In other words, you have 28.12% chance to get a win in the first 30 days of trying.


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: Patatas on December 14, 2015, 01:51:24 PM
That's quite of a probability.It still has its own relevance in the program.I can't figure out how much time or period it will take for that event to happen but if you're lucky enough it might just happen in your first ten rolls or may even take 6 months to happen.It all depends on your luck though.But yeah the event would happen some fine day.


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: baumi97 on December 14, 2015, 04:28:19 PM
Well as one of you guys alreasy said, you can get a hit after 5 rolls, but also after 5000 if you are unlucky. I once was hella lucky and made this one in like 30 rolls with my faucet:

https://i.imgur.com/PBHLs3A.png


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: iv4n on December 14, 2015, 07:38:54 PM
I have been betting at PrimceDice for a long time now.Recently I thought of giving this a try.I simply use the free bits from faucet and bet with 900.0X odds which makes the winning probability as 0.1100%.I know this is next to NULL but there are still some chances right ? I mean if i make 10 such bets everyday for about a month,will there be any chance that I'll actually win someday ? Your comments please.

For Reference :
https://i.imgur.com/7pbpSdW.png

Nice idea u have here! Theoretically speaking this is possible and I will try this for sure. I don't think I have that luck, and i don't believe I have enough patience for 5000 throws. Maybe even more then 5000.. 40 $ sounds really nice but but it's too much work for it.
Like I said I will give it a try (couple hundred times) and we will dee whst will happen.
Good luck for others who will try this also, if someone hit it I hope we will be informed here with how many tries u do it. Regards.


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: ajareselde on December 14, 2015, 07:44:29 PM
OP, like it clearly stated in your own image, the probability is 1:900; in another words - it's pointless.
Don't sell yourself short by wasting your time trying to earn something with faucets - there's a reason why they're there, and it's not to make you rich, or even worth your while.
Even typing captcha's and retyping doesn't pay that bad..

btw claiming faucet constantly one after another will most likely get your account locked.

cheers


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: Joel_Jantsen on December 15, 2015, 11:38:54 AM
OP, like it clearly stated in your own image, the probability is 1:900; in another words - it's pointless.
Don't sell yourself short by wasting your time trying to earn something with faucets - there's a reason why they're there, and it's not to make you rich, or even worth your while.
Even typing captcha's and retyping doesn't pay that bad..

btw claiming faucet constantly one after another will most likely get your account locked.

cheers

I know and I totally agree.The point is ,I was just trying to figure out the statistics like just what if ?I mean even if its 0.something,its still holds some relevance in the probabilities right ? Speaking logically the total probability is always 1,so in that case the value still holds some point in it.However lets see how it turns out for me.


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: Joel_Jantsen on December 15, 2015, 11:42:51 AM


you would need to do this bet for about 3 month each day 10 bets to have a hit. but as mexxer already said it is th elaw of the large numbers and could hit with the first bet or after 4 or 5 month

my question for you would be let's say you win this bet :)
what will you do with the 0.00179800  ???


Its not about the winning btc's lol suppose i raise the faucet bits to 0.0000200 and then bet with the same odds which are 9900X then the total profit comes upto 0.19 btc's ,which from a free faucet are like kickass! Who doesn't want 0.19 from free a faucet ?


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: JackpotRacer on December 15, 2015, 12:10:44 PM


you would need to do this bet for about 3 month each day 10 bets to have a hit. but as mexxer already said it is th elaw of the large numbers and could hit with the first bet or after 4 or 5 month

my question for you would be let's say you win this bet :)
what will you do with the 0.00179800  ???


Its not about the winning btc's lol suppose i raise the faucet bits to 0.0000200 and then bet with the same odds which are 9900X then the total profit comes upto 0.19 btc's ,which from a free faucet are like kickass! Who doesn't want 0.19 from free a faucet ?

thanks for the answer. fair enough :)

please bear with me. you want to reach 0.19 fair enough :) (if you have enough patience you will succeed imho)

but what will you do with 0.19 ? will you stop and enjoy it?


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: Maesters1- on June 18, 2016, 10:17:00 PM
no one can explain the probability of winning or loosing in gambling.


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: janggernaut on June 18, 2016, 10:48:21 PM
I have been betting at PrimceDice for a long time now.Recently I thought of giving this a try.I simply use the free bits from faucet and bet with 900.0X odds which makes the winning probability as 0.1100%.I know this is next to NULL but there are still some chances right ? I mean if i make 10 such bets everyday for about a month,will there be any chance that I'll actually win someday ? Your comments please.
-snip-
Yes, i think you'll hit it someday, but no one knows how long it takes. As reference, Serlite (One of mod on PD) was hit 9900x with max faucet (at that time he won 0.12+ BTC) so there is a chance too for hit that 900x. Goodluck, its really need patience before you hit it.


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: electronicfactura on June 19, 2016, 08:12:20 AM
It is all about luck you may hit at first roll or never.What is my experience on primedice or other dice sites there results under 0.90 appears many time when I am rolling at 2X.I don't know how it will work if we roll the dice for a multiplier of 900X or above.You need to be lucky to hit because last year if I remembered well some one hit this multiplier.


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: JackpotRacer on June 19, 2016, 08:40:19 AM
It is all about luck you may hit at first roll or never.What is my experience on primedice or other dice sites there results under 0.90 appears many time when I am rolling at 2X.I don't know how it will work if we roll the dice for a multiplier of 900X or above.You need to be lucky to hit because last year if I remembered well some one hit this multiplier.

It is all about luck you may hit at first roll or never

if it is provably fair (and it is imo) then there is no "never"
one will always hit whenever luck will hit him :)

with bad luck he might hit a tree before


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: Bitinity on June 19, 2016, 08:56:33 AM
It is all about luck you may hit at first roll or never.What is my experience on primedice or other dice sites there results under 0.90 appears many time when I am rolling at 2X.I don't know how it will work if we roll the dice for a multiplier of 900X or above.You need to be lucky to hit because last year if I remembered well some one hit this multiplier.

"NEVER" will only exist when players do not have more money to continue hunting the big multiplier or if the site cheat players.


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: bithasher on June 19, 2016, 09:00:00 AM
Dice is actually game of bankroll if you have good bankroll and can keep continue playing.You will surely hit at some stage during play.If you run short of money during playing then never will apply to you as someone mentioned above.Luck is only thing you need to hit higher amount with lower amount of money.


Title: Re: What is the Probability of winning 0.1100% at PrimeDice ?
Post by: Daffadile on June 20, 2016, 10:32:21 PM
There is nothing special about this, you could always have done this. The odds are bad and yes i do understand that after 1000x you should win but you might try 3000x and still not win it's not reliable. If you work it ouit it would pay the same as a faucet anyway. with a faucet at least it is garanteed.