Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Blawpaw on December 15, 2015, 03:00:13 AM



Title: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: Blawpaw on December 15, 2015, 03:00:13 AM
What are some of the main reasons that may put Bitcoin in danger and have a terrible effect in its price?

please comment!


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: InvoKing on December 15, 2015, 03:06:22 AM
What are some of the main reasons that may put Bitcoin in danger and have a terrible effect in its price?
please comment!

in danger = computers that could find your private keys in few hours? no internet/electricity worldwide?
terrible effect in its price = sell a massive amounts with few buyers? USA/EU/JP/CHN reject its local currencies and adopt bitcoin? another mt.gox?

my guesses :P


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: maokoto on December 15, 2015, 03:06:57 AM
Finding a bug in the code for example. That would make the coin go down like ligthning.


Also some kind of international banning (USA or Europe Union banning it or considering it illegal) or finding corruption among the core developers in a major scale.

But those are things that would be hard to happen.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: mtnsaa on December 15, 2015, 03:09:40 AM
I think Satoshi's identity reveal can bring some bad news in these days, however the value is rising. But just for speculation, imagine if we found out that Satoshi has millions of BTC or other bad things and it was all a dishonest endeavor from the get go. That will be a huge hit on Bitcoin image.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: BTCBinary on December 15, 2015, 03:18:43 AM
If Craig was to be Satoshi and dumped all of his coins that would be a hard blow. Besides, that would mean that all the bitcoin project had been a Ponzi scheme all along.

Other than that would be a leak coming out saying bitcoin was an NSA invention and was bugged from the start and was al part of a bigger plot: The New World Order


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: chennan on December 15, 2015, 03:24:33 AM
Well I mean it seems that everyone has forgotten that there is still a blocksize debate going on, and the direction of where bitcoin goes from here doesn't necessarily matter any more because of "da halving!! :P".

Where the devs take it from here is very important for Bitcoins long time success, and what people are proposing from both sides on the topic of what the block size should be would be a huge change in the structure of bitcoin block chain itself...

So what I'm trying to say, is that if a bad mistake were to happen in this debate and the possible fork fails, then we would see a major decline in price because there would be no more trust in how bitcoin operates at it's most fundamental level.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: lolgato on December 15, 2015, 03:28:24 AM
If satoshi we're to ever show his face it could mean a lot to bitcoin if he dumps but we still found no sign of him.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: Blawpaw on December 15, 2015, 03:31:26 AM
Well I mean it seems that everyone has forgotten that there is still a blocksize debate going on, and the direction of where bitcoin goes from here doesn't necessarily matter any more because of "da halving!! :P".

Where the devs take it from here is very important for Bitcoins long time success, and what people are proposing from both sides on the topic of what the block size should be would be a huge change in the structure of bitcoin block chain itself...

So what I'm trying to say, is that if a bad mistake were to happen in this debate and the possible fork fails, then we would see a major decline in price because there would be no more trust in how bitcoin operates at it's most fundamental level.

Yeah, I guess you touched a sensible spot! And IMO it is the most threatening and real reason that can br4ing bitcoin down to the gutter


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: sbtctalk on December 15, 2015, 03:36:53 AM
Half of the bitcoin market is controlled by east asia due to its unregulated status. As long as things that are being done doesn't erode the power of ruling CCP, it will turn a blind eye.

What might cause btc price to crash will be a government clamdown on the mining farms.

Over there, btc is a way to get cash and they are not interested in the ideology behind btc.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: neochiny on December 15, 2015, 03:42:32 AM
What are some of the main reasons that may put Bitcoin in danger and have a terrible effect in its price?

please comment!

I think, when the governments around the world,
takes place or take power over bitcoin as it can be possible.maybe,
because of the issues ISIS and other bad guys using bitcoin.
it can really affect the price of bitcoin. or if the maximum
of all countries or almost all countries ban using bitcoin in their countries,
it will be very bad effect on us.. :(  well this is just my opinion


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: WENGER on December 15, 2015, 06:09:32 AM
well one of the major reasons that could lead to decline of Bitcoin value would be if majority of whale's to dump at the same time their Bitcoins which as result will definitely degrade the value and the other one is if all of a sudden the demand for Bitcoin vanishes. There could also be a lot of indirect factors too.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: Supercrypt on December 15, 2015, 07:35:43 AM
One of the reasons in short term decline in bitcoin prices, like many people were speculating is selling for celebrating occasions like Christmas and New year. But the more stable prices are looking more stronger to tolerate any this kind of short term selling pressures. So, there are many chances for continuation of raising prices.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: americanpegasus on December 15, 2015, 07:40:54 AM
If Craig was to be Satoshi and dumped all of his coins that would be a hard blow. Besides, that would mean that all the bitcoin project had been a Ponzi scheme all along.

 
 
You goober. 
 
Even if Craig were Satoshi (he's not), and he came out and said, "Fuck everyone, I hate you all, I'm selling all my Bitcoins and going to finance the white power movement." then get this: Bitcoin would still function just the same as it always did!
 
Would the price crash?  Sure.  But it would still be the original and most popular financial crypto-network.  Nothing changes. 
 
That's the beauty of Bitcoin - no one can stop it, not even the original creator.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: Snorek on December 15, 2015, 07:42:56 AM
I think on of the main reasons of the price decline could be news about unfavorable bitcoin regulations incoming.
I predict that we will see bitcoin price drop sligtly in the early 2016 due to incoming antibitcoin regulations in North Carolina and California announced.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: NorrisK on December 15, 2015, 07:43:58 AM
Satoshis coins moving would probably be very dangerous at any point in bitcoins future and will surely cause a price decline out of fear of being dumped on.

Other things might be severe cracking down by the gorvernments (minor effect, will cause short term problems) or well known companies and persons taking a real firm stance against bitcoin.

Bugs in the software that cause insane problems (duping coins, creating them out of thin air, etc.) as roll backs are essentially impossible with current transaction volume.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: americanpegasus on December 15, 2015, 08:08:09 AM
Satoshis coins moving would probably be very dangerous at any point in bitcoins future and will surely cause a price decline out of fear of being dumped on.

Other things might be severe cracking down by the gorvernments (minor effect, will cause short term problems) or well known companies and persons taking a real firm stance against bitcoin.

Bugs in the software that cause insane problems (duping coins, creating them out of thin air, etc.) as roll backs are essentially impossible with current transaction volume.
 
  
Satoshi's coins moving wouldn't be the end of the world.  Three other individuals hold 400k each.  Roger Ver holds 300k.  This isn't quite a million, but these people hold incredibly large numbers of the currency... and yet their use and movement of the coins doesn't cause the price to collapse.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: Amph on December 15, 2015, 08:27:15 AM
internal dispute are the wrose thing for bitcoin, those that divide the community, can possible destroy bitcoin if too many hard fork happen in the future

or at least can potentailly damage it, i'm not too worried about satoshi's coin, because at best we would have more cheap coins to buy


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: sbtctalk on December 15, 2015, 09:25:49 AM
Maybe an end of world scenario -- satoshi dump all his coins to generate a crash.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: 1Referee on December 15, 2015, 09:43:08 AM
The most realistic dangerous scenario is when a fork doesn't work out as planned. A certain mining pool will go over the 51% mining share. I think that's the most dangerous for Bitcoin at this point. There are more scenario's such as a hacker cracking the private keys, but that's not realistic.

Maybe an end of world scenario -- satoshi dump all his coins to generate a crash.

Even if Satoshi is dumping his coins, it won't bring Bitcoin in danger. It will cause a massive massive crash, but the price will recover eventually.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: sbtctalk on December 15, 2015, 09:57:39 AM
The most realistic dangerous scenario is when a fork doesn't work out as planned. A certain mining pool will go over the 51% mining share. I think that's the most dangerous for Bitcoin at this point. There are more scenario's such as a hacker cracking the private keys, but that's not realistic.

Maybe an end of world scenario -- satoshi dump all his coins to generate a crash.

Even if Satoshi is dumping his coins, it won't bring Bitcoin in danger. It will cause a massive massive crash, but the price will recover eventually.


Ok.

1) a screwed up fork - that splits the community.

2) 51% hashing power issue.

With a decentralised community, who has the authority to ensure such issues won't happen?

Imho, in the broadest sense, there are two camps: one camp who is on the boat due to bitcoin ideology and its techology such as public ledger.

Camp number two: bitcoin is a commodity to earn fiat currency and this is the mindset of the eastern sphere who controls more than half of the worlds bitcoin supply.



Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: Mickeyb on December 15, 2015, 10:05:39 AM
What are some of the main reasons that may put Bitcoin in danger and have a terrible effect in its price?

please comment!

Definitely a major exchange getting hacked! Also some misunderstandings of the lead devs as we have seen with the XT but I doubt we will see any more situations like that in the near future!

As for the Bitcoin protocol, I think that the protocol is safe and proven as it can be!


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: chennan on December 15, 2015, 12:41:28 PM
If Craig was to be Satoshi and dumped all of his coins that would be a hard blow. Besides, that would mean that all the bitcoin project had been a Ponzi scheme all along.

 
 
You goober. 
 
Even if Craig were Satoshi (he's not), and he came out and said, "Fuck everyone, I hate you all, I'm selling all my Bitcoins and going to finance the white power movement." then get this: Bitcoin would still function just the same as it always did!
 
Would the price crash?  Sure.  But it would still be the original and most popular financial crypto-network.  Nothing changes. 
 
That's the beauty of Bitcoin - no one can stop it, not even the original creator.

You're definitely right, and hopefully if this very unlikely scenario were to happen, then hopefully Satoshi would have the descency to put his coins up on multiple exchange websites for everyone to have a chance at owning them. If the real Satoshi wanted to go full on "fuck you" mode, he would put his coins up for auction which would probably get a stupid high premium on them because these bitcoins are exceptionally rare... Which brings us to the fungibility issue again. Since these coins can be traced back to the birth of Bitcoin itself, people see these coins as more valuable since it hasn't touched any other wallets/scam sites/mixers/etc. I think this would cause more of an issue and hence a decline in price.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: randy8777 on December 15, 2015, 02:02:31 PM
hacked exchanges is what people make sell their coins causing the price to crash. especially when the larger exchange states that its cold wallets were stolen. that's when things start to get real messy.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: Supercrypt on December 15, 2015, 02:08:48 PM
What are some of the main reasons that may put Bitcoin in danger and have a terrible effect in its price?

please comment!

Definitely a major exchange getting hacked! Also some misunderstandings of the lead devs as we have seen with the XT but I doubt we will see any more situations like that in the near future!

As for the Bitcoin protocol, I think that the protocol is safe and proven as it can be!

You mean like MTGox, another exchange too may face a similar issue? I doubt but that also is possible as after the news came out, other exchangers like Gemini are taking extra care. Dumping seems to be a major concern as of now.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: biggbox on December 15, 2015, 03:43:35 PM
I certainly hope current exchanges take note of past incidents that happened to exchanges that went bankrupt by accident (remember one incident that the CEO was scammed to transfer a huge amount of coins via phone only to realised he was scammed afterwards) or engineered collapsed or security incidents such as server hacked.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: sbtctalk on December 16, 2015, 05:08:43 AM
What are some of the main reasons that may put Bitcoin in danger and have a terrible effect in its price?

please comment!

Definitely a major exchange getting hacked! Also some misunderstandings of the lead devs as we have seen with the XT but I doubt we will see any more situations like that in the near future!

As for the Bitcoin protocol, I think that the protocol is safe and proven as it can be!

The big names such as microsoft, oracle should form a tech consortium to explore, develop the ledger and protocol further.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: Rizky Aditya on December 16, 2015, 08:27:26 AM
The only option that I can think of, is if the internet goes down across the whole world. That would only bring it down like $30-$50 anyway.


Title: Re: Reasons for a possible BTC price decline?
Post by: QuintLeo on December 16, 2015, 10:25:56 AM
EU writes laws regulating Bitcoin (by intent, or by "badly written law that ends up being TOO restrictive" like has happened so often in the past by well-intentioned lawmakers) to the point it's almost unusable.

 Other areas do the same - or outright ban Bitcoin (but I don't see a deliberate outright ban being likely, even China seems to have realised that THEY are making a ton off of it given how many Bitcoin manufacturers AND FARMS are China based).


 Internet "bubble" syndrome.