Bitcoin Forum

Assuming there is no major news to affect bitcoin's price, there are still a number of factors to consider when trying to predict the effect the block reward's halvening will have on bitcoin's price.

We want you to vote: What do you think will happen to bitcoin's price this time around?
The poll is open for the next 6 days. Results will be announced after the poll is closed.

UPDATE: I've edited the poll options to not limit changes to a specific percentage figure.

ehm, we are already increasing, if we keep this rate we should already account this as "the effect of the halving on the value"

because otherwise there are the chances that we reach $1k slowly and then at the halving you have something like $1050, and because of this you think that the value increased only by 1/20, which is not true

because the effect of the halving does not come true only on the date of the halving

3%? that is nothing in bitcoin :D

At the rate that we are increasing, I think that by the time of halving, the price of Bitcoin will be around $1000.

If there are no big unexpected incidents, my guess is 1BTC = $800 in July 2016.

With this line of thinking, your vote should then be "price remains within +/-3%" because nobody knows if this uptrend is going to continue through 2016 (I, for one, certainly hope it will) or if price will remain around the $450 level. So, without knowing how much the price will be, the poll serves as a gauge to the general sentiment that the bitcoin community has over the expected halving of the block reward.

Remember the bitcoin price lull in June 2015 when BTC was struggling to break through $250? Bitcoin Volatility Index at that time was about 1%... Even today, the volatility index is at around 3-4%. In any case, the percentage is just an arbitrary figure.

The poll is limited to a set of answers i guess. The price could go increase for the long term this time cause there is no sudden bumps and falls and i assume people re getting into it slowly and for some longer time span .
Seeing the last few days i am expecting the price to be 550 around the new years.

exctly .:)

3% is really low amount to strive for. Bitcoin is already growing in value everyday which is around 3% already.
I think the price would go up way more than that. It has so much more potential than just 3%

My vote. Much higher. The world is not ready for 12.5 btc blocks.

I've edited the poll options to exclude the percentage and just leave it at a general price movement

We are already experiencing the effect that the halving has on the price. It will continue till the halving with a final peak somewhere before or after the halving. After that when things cool down, the price will come down too. I believe we can do an attempt to break through $1000 without much effort in mid 2016, but the real challenge will be the dumps that will follow. How deep will the price tank before it recovers.

After when things cooled down, we won't see much difference as when there isn't a block halving upcomming within a year. It will be a bumpy ride with from time to time very slow price movements, and from time to time a rally to keep you guys happy.

I think the uptrend will continue after the halving then follow by a small correction. It is a tough call, no one can predict what will happen.

Yes we are already experiencing effects, I agree with this. Current growth is fueled by expected halving. We are seeing positive pressure on the price and huge volumes constantly for about last 10 weeks.

I predict that we will continue in this trend all the way up to halving and we will have a new ATH around the halving!

Price Will be top high prior to the halving because People expect something magical to happen.

When they realize This is nog the case, price Will slowly move down again.

i was thinking that you should change the poll option to something like in range, like 0%-10%, 10%-25% etc..., or simply put standard %, like 10%, 25, 33 etc...

I dont think the effect of the halving will be immediatly obvious, it takes a bit of time for the market to adjust to the new supply.      
Most large scale miners do sell nearly constantly because they need to pay huge amounts in electricity which they can only cover with the Bitcoin they mine, so while all those miners will only have half the amount of Bitcoin to sell now there are still other Bitcoin on exchanges.        
Note that the Bitcoin being traded on exchanged does not only come from miners directly but also from people who previously had bitcoin. There are still many whales, and if some of them decide the halving is a good time to sell a % of their holding we might even end up having the selling pressure increase for a moment. It could even be day traders who cause a momentary increase in pressure. Or maybe it's just that whales begin purchasing more at shops that accept Bitcoin, while not rebuying their Bitcoin, which leads to the shops increasing selling pressure.
In the long run though, the selling pressure should decrease, and it will be noticeable. The question is not if, but when this causes a rise. And if the rise will be swift or slow.        
So far those Bitcoin has a tendency to drop slowly and rise quickly. So I guess some months after the halving Bitcoin will suddenly increase in value by one or two orders of magnitude.

It's not after it's before the halving .

The market (traders, miners) will anticipate the raise due to the halving . In fact I think they are already doing it , by buying and mining , that explain the price raise and the increase in hashpower (plus the new hardware on the market).

Plus the fact than big player (like the one producing mining device ) won't let the profitability of the hardware drop (directly related to the price they can sell the hardware). So they will help to keep the price up . IMHO we can expect the 600$ per BTC .

It's going to be interesting for sure because as you say I agree we are not ready for that yet. It might take time to adjust for it. I would really ask to big miners how they feel about having half reward for the same price. But I think I know the answer.

i think a price of $1000 after the halving is what will happen. at that time there will be a huge load of volatility that will drive non bitcoin traders and bitcoin holders nuts. i think we'll see the price go up and down with 10-20% in the weeks after the halving.

The price will be around $1000-1500. The effect of halving will not drive the price much higher. Bitcoin price is more stable now.

I think as we approach the halving this is going to get super exciting once again and the price of bitcoin will be flying. More than likely over the ATH and who knows from there.

We are sure to have a massive dump after though then back to a higher floor than before the pump but still there will be a dump obviously.

If I could vote for three then I would because that is most likely. Lets go with price fluctuation very big at that..

A dollar will cost at most 0.001 bitcoins. :)

I think it will be very fluctuative. Too much speculation when it's happening.

And i think bitcoin price is around $600-$800 after halving.

It's going to be there before February. Try $1000 at halving or even more if we are lucky.

I said Daily average price goes higher each day. More than half of the users think the same as me, it's not surprising. We'll see steady rise from now on because we are already in a bull market and block halving only makes it better. Miners will have less coins so they can't dump like they do now. They can only dump half of the supply, which makes speculators have better hands.

It'll certainly rise IMO.

There are many reasons one can say that we will see a price rise after halving, because the effect is being seen nowadays itself, the instability of markets and traders' sentiments is what will take the price higher a little, but not much as mentioned somewhere like $2000.

Considering the increase in the demand for bitcoins, the price is most probably going to rise and if I have to guess, it will be around $800-$900 else it will stay at $500-$600 range. Online sources state the same.

I really would like to see bitcoin getting more value after the halving ,but i believe the current price is being pushed up because of it,but after we achieve and be a it i really believe price will return to the 300 or even 200 dollars value,call me pessimist but from one moment to another bitcoin had something like 33% up and as i know and i read there is nothing to these had happen, the demand and supply doenst work at bitcoin.

maybe we need looking after new year to know price will above $1000 or below $1000 if i can make a hope i want price stuck in around $970-$1000

Im thinking there will be a slump again for awhile, followed by a meteoric rise.... (maybe 650-700). I dont think we will cross 1000$ again for at least a year though

the price wont be stable after the halving for sure i think that the only way it can possibly go is up and that nothing after the halving will stop the increase of the price lets hope my predictions are correct and that after some time we will all be rich

After the halving, the amount of money sold by miners to support their mining operation will be reduced. So the price might rise.