Bitcoin Forum

I've heard this all over the forum, and it just doesn't seem to be true, according to the chart of DJIA vs Bitcoin. In fact, it might be the opposite.

https://i.imgur.com/8Wm2cCP.png

I inclined to agree... but I guess the correlation is rather weak. Bitcoin value is also affected by other factors such as the credibility of exchanges, hacks, news related to crime and unknown...

I would think it depends on what kind of stock is going down. If it is in the tech sector then I can see it dependant on that but if it due to oil and gas prices going down then I can't see a pattern with that involved.

We'd all like to see such a pattern, but in reality there just isn't.

Bitcoin seems just a pump and dump these days in a world of its own.

Not related to any stocks or forex.

I GUESS YOU WUZ WRONG SUCKA

https://i.imgur.com/gp1Nzd0.png

As far as i can work out theres nothing set in stone that actually affects bitcoin other than FUD, stocks from what ive seen dont seem to cause any movement in price. Infact more often than not if the forum thinks something is going to happen witht he price chances are it wont.

it's a common thinking but you will not be really able to prove it at 100%, it could certainly be for some stocks but i doubt it is for every single one of them

the supply and demand for bitcoin is just crazy

That would only happen if the people that get out of stocks when they go down actually put their money in bitcoin at the same time (or atleast part of them).

Also, bitcoin volume and marketcap is just a drop in the ocean compared to the stock markets, so the effect would be much more noticable if this was actually happening.

It was also when there was a possibilty of Grexit.

When the stock market is insecure, meaning bad figures have come are expected to come, there is turbulence, investors look for more solid/profitable investments.

On of those alternatives are bitcoin, but there is also gold and FOREX.

Yes it's purely based on the investors and the amount of the transactions depending on which value of Bitcoin. Increases because when stock market goes down more investors will try Bitcoin because gold will not give quick profit will Bitcoin.

That will be good and easy for everyone to make profit out of bitcoin but it doesn't goes like that. But bitcoin price is depend more on its supply and demand and i think till now it is not depended upon any other commodities in the stock.

It's hard to draw a correlation between the two since bitcoin is in the discovery phase. Once it has been around for decades, then you can draw correlations.

The chart really needs to be re-calibrated. The range between $100 BTC and $1000 BTC is the same range as 2000 Points on the DJIA.

I also argue the DJIA is a pretty unfair representation of the stock market. It's a hand picked group of 30 stocks that are all blue chips. And guess what, if one under performs it gets booted out for a stronger stock.

Most of the time it goes up yes. But it is logic, investors try to figure out the most profit.
If stocks are not option A, They go for option Bitcoin.

There're tons of stocks. You might find a stock which *has been corelated* with bitcoin but it's not gonna be precise in the future. This is just a coincidence.

It's too hard to tell if there is any relation between the two options, because timeframe of comparison isn't long enough to make a definite conclusion.
It would help if you would specify what exact stocks you are referring to, but either way i think there's no link between the two.

at this point stocks and bitcoin are two different worlds. don't think when stocks go down that bitcoin goes up. it may have happened a few times. but that's just coincidence. bitcoin is going up and up due to the block halving. and it will continue to go up till far in next year.

I see some poeple here still have their logic about why they think btc goes opposite to stocks. However, based on charts, this doesn't actually happen. At best there is no correlation at all and at worst, they move in sync.

Bitcoin is an assets, and assets interact on with each other.
If the dollar is in decline the euro goes up and vice versa.

When stocks are going down, currency's are going up.
It's the way investors, invest and make money.

Maybe it is a coincidence, the financial markets are very insecure. First the euro, then grexit then the US debt ceiling.

You can't blame every rise of bitcoin because of a outside factor. What if an big investors actually ask some fellow investors to participate?

Oh it will happen at some point.   Just not yet.

Its not a reason I think, We saw before Chinese banks in the problem that time We saw the biggest price raise in bitcoin and Bitcoin price is consider by  its demand this normal for fiat currency too.If people start to utilize the bitcoin more than USD. Then rate will raise like a sky.

You might think the bitcoin price rise recently while the stock price go down. But for long term, they both rise.

i guess it means that bitcoin can be a very successful and strong currency that can even replace the money we have nowadays lets hope there wont be a crash in the bitcoin price

Over the entire (Bitstamp) history, the correlation coefficient between daily S&P500 and BTC/USD is ~0.65, which roughly means: moderately strong positive correlation.

In that sense, OP is right to point out that if there is any evidence so far for a correlation between stock market performance and BTC, it rather seems to be a positive relationship, not a negative one (i.e. "BTC is trending with stocks, not against").

However, the BTC history is rather short, and the above correlation is not extremely strong, so I'd take it with a grain of salt. More interesting perhaps is looking at it from a more fine-grained perspective: correlation between the two markets over a rolling time window of some reasonable length, say 200 days:

https://i.imgur.com/sZ6WvXf.png

Under that view, it seems the two markets were rather strongly positively correlated until around mid 2014, followed by a period of negative correlation. I wouldn't pretend to know whether that's only a fluke or not (perhaps due to the deep BTC bear market), but we'll probably only get a real answer if and when stocks enter a real bear market and we get a chance to see whether BTC follows this trend or resists it.

What's the connection between BTC and the Stock market? There's no real visible link here to me.

That's the point.

The scale of the plot is different for Bitcoin and DJIA. I just see them rise similar, but there is deviation recently.

I think the correlation is just a coincidence and that soon stocks will go down (china crashing as hell) and btc flat or even higher...

I do not think there is a big correlation in this. It is true that some people may run to Bitcoin when they see economy falling, but many (big) investors do not know about Bitcoin or simply do not trust it. It might have some influence, but not such a strong cause-effect.

If the fiat inflation is reduced or lower, or that the fiat value is increase, there is a possibility that bitcoin price will drop.

It is also how it is difficult to obtain the more value which is called.

And if a lot of people can get to it, the less it I think. We do not have the self control.

Right. If bitcoins obtain little than the price goes up because it is so difficult to obtain and become bitcoin so worth. So it makes sense that it is more valuable.

a better correlation seems to be "btc goes up when the threat of capital controls becomes reality".

This seems to be the case, as capital controls lead to fear and uncertainty, and both of those tend to lead some to btc

As far as I can work out there is nothing set that actually affects bitcoin, the stocks from what I have seen don't do something, it is going to happen with the price chances or it won't.
We will see it at the end from the stocks, I don't think its true.

i think you are talking about those chinese move on november. Yes we need some more capital control rules also in us and europe. :)

all stock market today is down but bitcoin slide, i think bitcoin is have own way. so happen with stock market,oil, commodities, etc. does'nt affect to bitcoin

I think that it would be more : "the worst the situation is, the higher the Bitcoin price will be". If this is true, they're great times ahead my friends ;D !

thats true! there is another thread on here where someone pointed out that economist Martin Armstrong is now advising people in all of europe to open banks in the USA, because some countries (Switzerland I believe) have already approved bail ins

I think it is of course logical that when there is little of it is that it is more valuable.

And if there is a lot of it is that it will be worth less.

The bitcoin price is being calculated with accordance to the value of dollar. So value of bitcoin increase even if dollar price increases. This indicates the direct relation between stock market and bitcoin price. The bitcoin too goes down when stocks go down

Well your logic is thinking about the two entities literally. BTCBTCBTC price doesn't work that way and I do not believe there's a direct relationship at all. Indirectly, though, it might be possible.

If the bitcoin is not affected by other factors, the bitcoin price in dollars will drop when the dollar value rises.

When the price starts going up, people start coming out of the woodwor. We are setting new records almost on a daily basis for amount traded and number of transactions.
It should be noted that bitcoin is a relatively illiquid market, so its exchange rate against major world currencies has been historically volatile

There is too much volatility in Bitcoin to properly measure whether there is a correlation or not.  If Bitcoin were to stabilize we could have a better picture.

Yes. I think the bitcoin has too much volatility. If the bitcoin price just rises 1% a week, that will make it very valuable.

This is an interesting thing. I fully expected bitcoin to develop and grow in a counter market fashion. Kinda the way gold prices behave. When the market is a mess investors flee to gold. But that is not what I see at all. In fact bitcoin often tracks world markets.

I have no idea why that would be?  ???

Would you also expect investors to flood into Random_Shitcoin when markets tank? If not, why?

They do seem to do that with alt-coins? It's not what I do though.
Most of the money I have made in various markets has been made betting against markets. I divested before the last two tech crashes and the 2008 crash. However it hasn't always worked, I take a bath once and a while.

I guess I was trying to say that people see gold as a safe haven, something relatively stable (rightly or wrongly). They feel that even if they do lose money with gold, it won't be all of it & it won't be overnight. Because gold is a big thing, with many private/governments investors, one of those "too big to fail" things.
Bitcoin, otoh, is seen as a high risk/high reward investment, like a tech/bio startup.

IMO I think the price will stabilize (to a certain degree) after the halving occurs, I think the run up to this will show increased volatility but after the halving I believe it will settle and then maybe more accurate comparisons can be made to real world markets.

The price peak in 2013 was about 11 months after the halving. The price rose a lot at the time.

It maybe because of the demand of both sides. Some of the stockholders might transferred their stock funds into bitcoin.

If they transfer 0.01% of their funds into bitcoin, the bitcoin price will fly very high. The price maybe $100,000.