Bitcoin Forum

https://i.imgur.com/QP3Pb.png

Greatest %/day decreases in years

Ruh roh

Maybe a manufacturer of asics is done with "quality control" and they are ready to ship?

I don't really like looking at the 1-day average. It's too inconsistent, and can very easily be swayed by variance, without actually a drop in hashrate. That said, the 3-day windows has dropped off significantly since 12/12/4:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-2k.png

It looks to be too much for just variance. Seems the next diff recalculate might be a little lower.

lite coins hash rate has jumped quite a bit, maybe it is some big GPU farms.

So you're concerned about a dip that has a higher low than the two preceding it?

Why are threads created with misleading titles like bitcointalk is some tabloid rag?

I'm pointing out that the trend upwards has finally reversed.

This is the speculation forum, not the "here's my intelligent retrospective analysis of data I obtained from the future" forum.

So a title like "Hash Rate Breaking Upward Trend?" didn't seem more accurate? The addition of "Begins Massive Tank" seems really sensationalist to me.

I get we're in the 'speculation' forum, I'm just getting tired of the implied "OMG Crisis" in the thread topics.

Such as "Crash" titles when BTC declines by $1 USD. It's hyperbolic and makes little sense.

if you ignore the fact that the entire graph range is only +/- 2% of course it looks like a big drop... if the range was instead +/- 20% it'd look like the minor change that it is.

Because it is in tacotime's best interest for people to stop mining litecoins, most threads in speculation forums have an agenda

It's only 2%, but it's 2% per day for 4 days. In total, we're about -10% of the network a week or two ago.

Agreed. I think the only people who shut down are the twelve-ish people on this forum that have stated they have. Last I checked the estimated difficulty was going up. May have changed in the last 18hours though.

Estimate has flipped to a slight decrease, which is impressive considering how much the network ramped up just prior to the block reward drop, which really pushed the estimate high.

3438909 -> 3425847.

Estimate was even lower earlier, but we've had a few periods of 10+ blocks in about 45 minutes today which brought it back up a little.

Its growing again. Cant wait for difficulty to drop, but it looks that many have to wait atleast month, until they realizes, that they cant mine a shit now :)

Variance or no variance, for whatever reason the halving of blocks has provided for the largest short-term swing in estimated hashrate calculated by blockrate in the past year. Obviously it will be weeks before the ramifications sort themselves out though.

Current difficulty:   3438908.9601591   Current block: 211516
Next est. difficulty: 3384279.41923707  Target block:  211679
Next retarget in:     163 blocks (1.13194 days)

Where's your 10% drop? Current estimate from last difficulty adjust (12 days ago) showing total estimated drop of 1.6%.

Shhh :D

Isn't it more like a ~30% drop?  We were at 30 th/s on the 1st and now we're at 23 th/s from 3-day estimates

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-thumbnail.png

When taking into account the entire 12 days, yes it looks like nothings happened. But look at the chart I posted up above. The network hashrate was significantly and noticeable higher before the 4th than it was after the 4th.

Or if you want, look at the OPs chart. It dropped a minimum of 2% for 4 straight days. That's pretty close to a 10% drop.

I'm confused the hash rate is going down but difficulty hasn't moved much does that mean the remaining miners are just lucky?

There was a huge spike in hashrate at the beginning of the week, followed by a huge drop later, both rectifying towards the norm.

Difficulty is calculated roughly as expected_time/actual_time, so if it averages out to having taken the same amount of time, difficulty will remain roughly the same.

The total network hashrate seems a little too high for a monday.  I was kind of expecting it to be in the high teens, or lower 20s.

Like a good girlfriend

LMAO! ;D

Tip jar?

oh giggity.. all 3 difficulties are dropping off quite a bit.

btc    211718    0M    2016    213696    1978    1.88%    3370181.75000    3022227.88201    -10.32%    15d 7hr 37m 18s
nmc    86861    402M    2016    88704    1843    8.58%    963488.77507    796715.75148    -17.31%    15d 11hr 27m 52s
ltc    260605    680M    2016    262080    1475    26.84%    42.27702    26.72447    -36.79%    4d 1hr 13m 28s

Uh LTC difficulty recent went up from 26 to 42, not down...unfortunately. It was fun while it lasted after dropping from 48 to 26 though. :P

LTC is on its way back down.... I posted the then current estimates from allchains.info

LTC is on a roller coaster ride.. when diff drops people jump on it like a free meal.. when diff shoots back up they run away like the plague..

so far it seems that the down cycle lasts 2 days and the up cycle (higher diff) lasts 4 1/2 days

And people think a stable currency/economy can be built on a system like Litecoin?

Give me a break.

Bitcoin has a long, stable history compared to Litecoin -- and I still meet plenty of people that haven't heard of Bitcoin.

Litecoin is being difficulty coastered right now by a large BTC miner who mines and dumps every other difficulty period.  It's inevitable with a 3.5 day retarget.

In other news it looks like I was right, we're looking at a -13% difficulty decrease right now which will put us below 3M.

I don't know -- since your OP it went up quite a bit, then down again (eventually).

Difficulty reset 2 days after the OP -- it was basically flat.

If I say the BTC price is tanking, am I "proven correct" if the price drops 10% up to 12 days later?

Isn't there a saying about a broken clock being right twice a day?

That's true.  I mostly created this as a troll thread but then it turned into a big debate.