Bitcoin Forum

The month of January has been historically unkind to bitcoiners. We've seen the ATL (All Time Low) last January (for the year 2015). We saw the ATL for the year in January 2014, so on. January has been murder on bitcoins.

The coming January is no exception. We are going to see the ATL for 2016 in a few weeks. It will be a good time to buy, so get your fiat ready.

ok hold, got it

Those previous January are different because no something will take place in that year. Next year, January, is different because of the upcoming halving which bring more people to buy bitcoin to take advantage of that event. All price today can consider as good price to buy.

OP (and most predictors on here) should join the Clergy/Priesthood.

No other career encourages such profound statements of certitude with so little supporting evidence and rationale.

A thread by you saying we'll tank in Feb?

Ok just wait and watch, as we all know future not always follow past. Don't predict future based on past as this time people have already started to buy .

I actually think the price in January will continue to rise. That's the most likely thing to happen. If it goes down, then we can't do much other than waiting, and maybe even buy when the price falls down low enough. Can't see it fall below $400 though.

HOLDING WINS! FATALITY!

January 2016 will bring more of what December and November 2015 brought us, I reckon.

Nice answer mate. Yes it will and while halving is approaching expect more thrilling action in bitcoin price. Ride the wave. Don't missed the action.

January 2016 can bring an slightly increase of bitcoin price.
I don't expect too much but i hope a better price rather than of December, somewhere at $500+

January can bring an increase to the bitcoin price if all goes well this year. So far things are going nicely.

Well things at the moment are going good as the bitcoin price has started being increased.
But i don't expect any good surprise in the beginning of the next year until the halving period.

not a dump for sure, the price is very strong now, you see no below 400 like many were thinking, january is bringing new good proposals

the halving alone will make an huge difference on the future value, i may see another attempt to break 500 and stabilize at 500-700 range

Holding fiat money from 10-15 days but bitcoin price never went down from 400$.
I will buy when it reach atleast below 375$

I think this January will be good for bitcoin. I think that we will see the price reach $500. After halving comes, the price will be even higher.

Hmmm. I feel some supporting evidence might be useful. Here's January 2011 on Gox (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg120zczsg2010-12-31zeg2011-01-31ztgSzm1g200zm2g365zl) and January 2012 (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg120zczsg2011-12-31zeg2012-01-31ztgSzm1g200zm2g365zl), January 2013 (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg120zczsg2012-12-31zeg2013-01-31ztgSzm1g200zm2g365zl), January 2014 (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg120zczsg2013-12-31zeg2014-01-31ztgSzm1g200zm2g365zl) and January 2015 (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg120zczsg2014-12-31zeg2015-01-31ztgSzm1g200zm2g365zl) on Stamp. With the exception of January 2015, every January has seen a rise between the 1st and 31st. Now, five years' worth of data isn't really enough to make assumptions about future performance, but I am going to assume that "January has been murder" is hyperbole, unsupported by the available evidence.

I too expect prices will hit above $500 level. Because from last two months we are seeing higher closing price than previous month end. This way we can see this December closing price would be above $500 levels. So in January we can expect prices staying above $500 and will be trading towards $700 levels.

I believe we can see a price rally towards 600 USD.
Maybe not in january but in the first quarter of 2016 for sure.

The momentum is really up and we got some investors who have a lot of dough

If bitcoin does goes down like last year, it will give people a chance to buy bitcoin, the ones who are just getting into bitcoin.
I don't think bitcoin will go down very low, at least not lower than $400 next month.

Hmmm, I'd say the rise of the median price of the last weeks comes to a temporary halt in january with values roughly between $400 and $450. No sharp spikes and no deep valleys for the time being. Furthermore a slow accumulation of crypto throughout january, triggering a further (gradual) increase in value after that month.

It hopefully wont go down too much and 2016 could be different to last year as we have the halving coming up and there has also been a lot of chatter especially about the blockchain and in turn bitcoin, I would say we will be holding at a steady price for q1 so best to hold.

I think the price will rise around January 2016. But it will not be too much. The price will be around $500.

the next January will be quite different. because there are a lot of good news is happening which support the price and push it up.
maybe it will be the lowest levels in 2016 as you said that is because the price will continue the up trend for the rest of the year

Ik expecting a small crash the upcoming days. After that a slow rise to 450-500 usd and mid januari a more serious crash to around 200 usd

$425-$475 range tbh, stabilising

spring could be a some serious upswing towards summer imo

Oh you're always predicting a crash.  You might be right, but lately the sentiment around btc has been bullish.  You ought to jump on board, my friend.  It's nice and warm in the herd.

this january is very special :)
Im sure we can reach $500, bitcoin halving make everyone to buying bitcoin and hold it

Didn't realize that January is a bad month for bitcoin. If what time tells is true then I won't be expecting any gains this time around either.
Too bad as I was seeing next month being a good time to sell any bitcoin I had left after this holiday season.

januari is new year, im sure 2016 bitcoin can succes i found more "good prediction/speculation" about bitcoin in 2016
like this

Record highs predicted for bitcoin in 2016 as new supply halves  (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-bitcoin-analysis-idUSKBN0U60GM20151223)

progress of bitcoin, I think it will be a great year for the advancement of bitcoin.
seen from the development now think bitcoin will become more intense in 2016 that has been waiting in front of the eye  ;D

I hope bitcoin can touch $450 stable in January 2016 ( I like stable price ) also we can touch $375 - $500 range in the end of January 2016. As others say, 2016 is the year of bitcoin, $375 - $500 is a good range compared to January 2015. There are many great news for bitcoin community in 2016, so maybe bitcoin will have good movement in January 2016, because the first month is the opening.

Your vies are treating bitcoin just like an ordinary commodity, may be like Gold. But bitcoin will jump in over night to another unexpected range. So, I believe there are more surprises in January also. In first quarter of 2016, bitcoin will be valued more than $1200 in my way of predictions.

This I doubt but we shall see.

January will give a some cold days for sure. Maybe even snow, since we didn't have that this christmas.

Bitcoinwise, we may see the biggest pump in years. With the upcoming block halving, january is the perfect time to get bitcoin somewhere near the 550 USD range.

I can see the price getting back up where it left in december.

But for that matter it could also go back to the oktober price. To see we have to watch patiently.

Price will go down.  Why?  Because bitcoin is unpredictible scam scheme, when everyone expects up,  it goes down.

There are too many factors that influence the price to say anything that make sense.

But looking what has happened, the market will surely react on what has happened the last couple of months.

Definitely going up... Why? Because my autistic brother says so ;)

So many people with autistic brothers...

ftfy.

it may be the case, because it is one long year for bitcoin, so it may just be an increase bitcoin prices that exceed the price in previous years

Price will go down . Why ? Most markets analysed it . You expect it will rise but once again you will be wrong

According to predictions We can’t expect big growth in January. In the end of January we can see slight growth in rate chart. After having we can expect better among the market of the current situation and rate. avoid prediction and save bitcoins for future is opinion.

A new wave of bulls :P

I just don't believe that this January will be horrible - no matter what January 2015 or 2014 was. The market is now bullish so I think we will actually crush nice highs for the start of 2016. $500 might be broken in January.

Anyway, I am happy either way. If it doesn't go like I expect then it simply means cheap bitcoins for everyone haha!

if it happened in 2015 does not mean it will happen in 2016

Bitcoin is NOT cheap at $400. People talk BIG here but analysis has proven that most people here have less than 1 BTC each.

I am waiting for the 500 USD price to be reached. The market manipulators have tried it twice already.
Now is the time to get the price to 500 USD and let it stay there for a while.

No chance means eventually people become impatient and start selling again to make a profit.

yeha but they still have more than $400 in fiat, so the problem is not having the money to buy, but that they not trust it

and 400 is very cheap actually, 1 btc should be comparabe at least with 1 kg of gold, not one ounce

It's not a matter of 'if'. It's just a matter of 'when'. I think we can do it in January. I hope this time we won't go below $500 again after reaching it. It has already happened before, now it's time for the real deal.

That's why we always miss it, just because people have stops there already...
They just want to get out with profits, they are not seeing the big picture, just trading and making small profits...

Yes that's the bottom line we are going to cross $500 mark this time and from there no looking back it should be just going on and on and on, I am doing my best to promote Bitcoin so that it reaches more people and more transaction and more value

If the bitcoin foundation would announce that Ebay or Amazon would accept bitcoin, it would be nice.

But in terms of news I think we have to wait longer. The price however will uplift to 500 USD. Of that i am (almost) certain.

Today the bitcoin price crashed also a bit and the total is about $6.
For this year it's hard to think even to reach somewhere at $450.

500 is incoming, and towards the halving this will only get higher!

can you tell me what the bitcoin foundation has to do with the announcements of ebay and amazon accepting bitcoin? i say nothing.

It's good to see the sentiment has become positive/realistic now

For me we can only hope for some big news if a full time marketing team is setup and directed by the Bitcoin Team.
The more professional the team is, the more likely companies will step in.

A new wave of investors.

Except for rain, sun i expect january will give us a 500 USD price for bitcoin.
If we have reach that way before the halving, it will be sunny al ove 2016

If we see more people getting into bitcoin by adding shops to the directory
More ATM's, january could be super for the price. A potential rise to 600 dollar.

It's really hard to say.
On one hand the price could go up to 500 and even to 550 dollar
Then on the other hand it can go back to 400 dollar and lower.

The time for bitcoin to shine has come.
I would say we will see bitcoin beating highs after highs this year. Starting this month it can potentially grow to 700 dollar this year.

Can't see the price go up to $700 in January. I am already happy if we manage to stay above $500 this month. That's realistic enough to happen. I know there will be a lot people selling around $500, but I hope it will be strong enough to catch the dumps.

Having only six years of data, and that is the case for Bitcoin, discards talking about seasonals!
I read it again and again on this forum and really hate it.
For the coming year it statistically meaningless what happened in the previous years as the observation period is too short.
In case of other assets it takes at least THIRTY years to collect something meaningful!  

I think he was speaking of $700 sometime around this year.
Not specifically now in january.

Regarding your prediction I hope we can reach the $500 this month. If not that's also no drama but then in fbruary, at least in march something with upwards movement should happen.
If we should pass the $500 quickly and keep rising there won't be bigger dumps happen I believe because many would start to speculate if this will be the run for the halving.And no one wants to miss that I think.

January will bring happiness to every bitcoiner, we can see price 500-600 this month or maybe more if we are lucky enough.upcoming halving will also impact price of bitcoin

Jesus, you think new year is some excuse to slack off work? Make my prediction come true already you loafer.

It's funny how people still talk about halving and how it will increase current price, but when you think about it; that's what they(even i) were saying when
price was ~230$. I still have no doubt that prices over time will increase by multiple folds, but i most certainly don't expect it this month.
imho this Jan we should hover around 400, with upps and downs of upto 50-75$. But ofcourse there are never any guarantees.

That is exactly my point as well. You cannot count that halving alone would keep moving the price to $1k and beyond. That is absurd. We shouldn't go beyond $500-600, at most, if there is no fundamental developments to follow in the first half of 2016. Otherwise we will just stay in the horizontal trend, as you wrote, with $50 moves in each direction. It is good for day traders, but not for the long-term investors.

The price will be around $450 in this month. It will rise slowly in the next few month in expectation of halving.

I hope we are in from some nice price rally to 550 dollar.

This would give the bitcoin economy an enormous boost.

Don't be superstitious about the month of January as there is nothing such bad thing if we see the things in their context.Those last years were hard as Bitcoin was struggling for its survival and was fighting for its recognition.Now the scenario is different,I don't say there will be a huge rise in price as I don't have any idea about this.What is sure there will stability in price of Bitcoin this year in January and some rise in year 2016.

This January will be much more different and will bring good things to Bitcoin in my opinion.It is possible to see price over 500 $ by the end of this month which will keep increasing steadily till the completion of block halving.

In good and in bad we are here with bitcoin no matter what january brings. For some it will be good for sure and I hope I will be one of lucky ones.

I don't think that this January will bring anything new in the bitcoin network, about the forum i hope that everything will go well and no escrowscams that happened few days ago

why is this january different than previous january months? as far as i know nothing special will happen this month. i am already happy if we can maintain a price of at least $420 this month. everything on top of that is a nice present. it feels good to hold coins that keep their value fairly stable over a certain period of time.

What escrow scam?

here the drama https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1306301.0

For the moment it is not at all bad. Big stability and high price. Maintaining the trend of the last 2-3 months. I hope that go in this way. No one can find what will bring tomorrow for the bitcoin but is a fact that all the previous year bitcoin was much more stable even than to many important legal national currencies (beginning from the is dollar). So have no "reason" to change it behavior this months or in the others to come. Anyhow all that we can do is to hope that this wish become true. Or even to pray. All the other remaining things have to do with "It". "It always can do what "It" want.

I just hope the price of bitcoin will go up and beyond anything we have ever seen.
Touching 800 dollars would be my dream.

There is enough time to go to 800 dollar.
Having 1 big bonus (the block halving), your dream may come true.
However i prepare for a price of 700 dollar

I really hope to see some company like ebay accepting bitcoin.
It would give bitcoin so much power.

With power I mean it will attract people about bitcoin seeing it's a real payment option.

This would be very very beneficial for bitcoin's prosperity. I do expect this to happen but not this year.
If the price stablizes this year and we see some little developers, merchants probably find bitcoin themself.

For me getting the price to 500 dollar would be terrific.
If the new low is 500 dollars we have finally achieved an acceptable price.

it won't happen, but you can wait for open bazar which will be even better, and decentralized than ebay

i'm sure that if open bazar will be done corretly, amazon and ebay will be obsolete

quite confused predictable prices so stable long enough, but I hope it can reach $500 or more :)

Just wait a few more weeks, the price will rise after the consolidation. The longer the consolidation, the higher the price.

What do you say now???

I told you I saw the future.

This is how it's going to play out through the remainder of the year. We will briefly touch 600 and then drop down to 350. Average price will remain around 400. Make fun of my prediction and you will die a pauper.

Most accurate prediction ever made on the forum.

I hope more then what we have seen.
The price did take a beaten, while I aimed for a 10% increase.
Well we are just halfway the month, so a lot can happen.

you say that having all and all the history of SIX Januaries in total. That is quite little in statistical terms, you know that?
Any asset, if we speak about seasonal, needs at least 30 years of historical data to get any meaningful pattern. Otherwise the error of such a speculation is too big to make any reasonable prediction.

The month of January has brought frustration and anger to almost everyone involved in bitcoin.
It just keeps going down and all because of the mass media. Nothing really to do with real world events. Just nerd rambling and if the mines can produce more.
Somebody mentioned in the wall observer thread it as a toy. I am starting to believe this notion as many people can just play with it with no care.

Well Bitcoin today is a toy. Owned by the whales.

Those chinese investors are making bitcoin a child's currency, which is very very bad for us.

Until there is mass adoption of Bitcoin, and that seems less likely each day, the coin will be a toy for speculators. That is what happens to Bitcoin for quite a long time already and until we have a game changer, if at all, that affects heavily the adoption, we shouldn't expect anything else in regard to price action.

The Chinese government is going to make a new coin. So the Chinese investors might not be interested in bitcoin any more.

So far we got quite some action already.
Not what I expected to be honest. I hoped we would already be at 500 dollars

My hope is we go to 600, but that dream has sailed.
Right now it's mandatory to stay positive and hope the investors who left come back again.

It does seem to be moving up and down pretty wildly lately, but I think overall it's been a pretty neutral month. Last third will be interesting

As it is almost weekend, I could say that price would drop a little later...maybe we'll expect movement by monday.. hehehe...  :)

The news of the month for me is Hong Kong-based bitcoin exchange Gatecoin has joined a startup accelerator backed by Standard Chartered and Chinese Web services giant Baidu.

Btc exchange project funded by Chinise giant It has full China gov acceptence


http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-baidu-fintech-accelerator/ (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-baidu-fintech-accelerator/)

News like this is undervalued.

Else the price would climb at least 2%. It's sad things go this way. But well yeah it's how it works with bitcoin...

"Gatecoin is receiving a $25,000 investment in exchange for a 5% stake in the startup, co-founder and CEO Aurélien Menant told CoinDesk. The company will also work with advisors to the program, which are drawn from those sponsoring the initiative as well as firms like Barclays and PayPal."

So the company is valued at $500k. It is quite a large sum for a start up company.

This month hasn't bring bitcoin any good as far as I can tell.
We've seen the value of bitcoin drop in just a couple of days.

this happened all time not only this year, even now value of bitcoin drop but will rise again maybe 2 month again or 3 month again or maybe tomorrow ;)

For the moment we are only in an almost stable price. No ATL in horizon. If wouldn't be for the "speech" of Mike Hearn, the situation could have been much more quiet. But even with his bitcoin mortuary the bitcoin has react very well. The decrease caused by his words and the bankrupt of Cryptsy was comparable with its games in the best days. 70-80 us dollar decrease and some recover after (only to tell that I am alive and in health) have a significant meaning. Bitcoin has began to have immunity from the problems, the actions against it and from the errors of the others. If this can be verified continuously even in the months to came it would be a qualitative step ahead on its maturity as a product and, first of all, as a currency.

in January will soon be over, I guess there are no major changes were brought in january 2016, this is the same as in December last. but maybe next month will bring something new like bitcoin price increases  :)

Will, the curse happened, January bitcoin price is low and it dip fast and now we are crawling back to $400, I hope it will be the last.

I also believe this will be the last time we are going to test and cross $400 price levels. But, the good thing is more stable bitcoin prices around $380 and $390 price levels. Technically this will ensure the prices will be testing $400 level very soon.

Its good to see solid price points though.

Since its been rebounded so many times, and now its actually holding the minimum to be those levels, unless something drastic happens.

Bitcoin will make all users understand about the nature of bitcoin. Bitcoin will grow slowly and won't go that high as most of the users predicted. The value seems to be in the barrier of $400 to 450$  by the January end

yes bitcoin have the movement that relatively stable today. unlike in 2009-2013 were classified as having a very ekstream movement. bitcoin now more restrained.

Two altcoins are on the line now pumping so expect that the price will behave for about days or even weeks.

The trend for that altcoins will be decreased for sure because people will began focusing on btc in the last months before halving.

end of january is so disgusting price move slowly like a turtle, price move up and down very slowly this is happened in this week. what going on with this situation, it's very hard to get some profit this weeks.

i never trade when the price isn't moving much, i just relax and do other stuff not related to bitcoin. i tried to do some trading on slow days but it's not worth it. staring at the price ticker all days for a measy profit is not worth the time. i only trade when there is real market action.

I hope to see some new features added to the wallet this yar.
It's been some time since the wallet was made more user friendly. The code needs to be updated.
If we see this little changes, it will be good for the price.

I think it is good to buy some and forget about it for a few months. The price could rise in a few months.

that's good advice for people who can't handle the volatile market as it is. but i think the bitcoin price at this point can go up significantly at any time. people will have a hard time forcing themself to forget about bitcoin for a certain period of time.

nothing for now, small price pump and dump, but nothing more special, later this year will come halving which will change everything

I think it will be a hard year. The value now is quite low, and I dont know if it will rise this month. But we all hope for that.
I hope that we can all sell it with profit. Maybe we can now in this time invest and maybe sell it in the future.

I do not think the price will rise this month or next month. The price is waiting for the block size decision.