Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin => Mining => Topic started by: The Koolio on June 07, 2011, 03:55:00 PM


Title: What will be the difficulty in 3-4 weeks time
Post by: The Koolio on June 07, 2011, 03:55:00 PM
Can someone have a guess for me?

Title: Re: What will be the difficulty in 3-4 weeks time
Post by: Jack of Diamonds on June 07, 2011, 03:55:54 PM
Between 750000 and 1.3 million.

Title: Re: What will be the difficulty in 3-4 weeks time
Post by: xenon481 on June 07, 2011, 04:02:02 PM
Quote from: xonar on June 07, 2011, 03:55:54 PM
Between 750000 and 1.3 million.

Nice range.  :D

Title: Re: What will be the difficulty in 3-4 weeks time
Post by: exahash on June 07, 2011, 05:03:18 PM
Quote from: The Koolio on June 07, 2011, 03:55:00 PM
Can someone have a guess for me?

Go get SgtSpike's Mine or Invest spreadsheet (http://forum.bitcoin.org/?topic=7531.0), plug in the numbers and your estimate for difficulty increase percentages, and then look at the second sheet. 

Doing that myself, I'd say we're looking at 1.2MM in about 30 days.

I'm not confident the network hashrate will continue to grow like it has the last few weeks.  58xx and 59xx cards are nearly all sold out and the super nerds who just came home from college and filled their moms' basements with rigs will be getting power bills and summer blackouts by then (at least in the US).


Title: Re: What will be the difficulty in 3-4 weeks time
Post by: Jack of Diamonds on June 07, 2011, 05:12:35 PM
Quote from: xenon481 on June 07, 2011, 04:02:02 PM
Quote from: xonar on June 07, 2011, 03:55:54 PM
Between 750000 and 1.3 million.

Nice range.  :D

I know, but should be pretty accurate. If I were to strictly narrow it down I'd estimate 1.1m to 1.3m. The 750 is a very optimistic estimate that will prob. break in next difficulty.

Title: Re: What will be the difficulty in 3-4 weeks time
Post by: The Koolio on June 07, 2011, 05:13:59 PM
when is the next increase due?

Title: Re: What will be the difficulty in 3-4 weeks time
Post by: bcpokey on June 07, 2011, 05:27:34 PM
Quote from: Monoquark on June 07, 2011, 05:18:31 PM
Quote from: The Koolio on June 07, 2011, 05:13:59 PM
when is the next increase due?

In 1809 Blocks.

Give a man a fish, he eats for a day, teach a man to fish...

http://bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/

Title: Re: What will be the difficulty in 3-4 weeks time
Post by: shackleford on June 07, 2011, 05:43:44 PM
Quote from: bcpokey on June 07, 2011, 05:27:34 PM
Quote from: Monoquark on June 07, 2011, 05:18:31 PM
Quote from: The Koolio on June 07, 2011, 05:13:59 PM
when is the next increase due?

In 1809 Blocks.

Give a man a fish, he eats for a day, teach a man to fish...

http://bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Don't teach a man to fish, and you feed yourself. He's a grown man. Fishing's not that hard.

Ron Swanson

Title: Re: What will be the difficulty in 3-4 weeks time
Post by: fnord123 on June 07, 2011, 06:13:39 PM
21 days from today the difficulty will be 822,872
28 days from today the difficulty will be 990,991

These numbers are only accurate if:
  • The current ETA to next block estimate of 10.48 days is correct
  • The current estimated next difficulty is 683,274 is correct
  • The ratio of difficulty increases continues to be 20%, just like the next one

Here's the sequence:
Code:
6/7/2011	567,358
6/8/2011	567,358
6/9/2011	567,358
6/10/2011	567,358
6/11/2011	567,358
6/12/2011	567,358
6/13/2011	567,358
6/14/2011	567,358
6/15/2011	567,358
6/16/2011	567,358
6/17/2011	683,274
6/18/2011	683,274
6/19/2011	683,274
6/20/2011	683,274
6/21/2011	683,274
6/22/2011	683,274
6/23/2011	683,274
6/24/2011	683,274
6/25/2011	683,274
6/26/2011	822,872
6/27/2011	822,872
6/28/2011	822,872
6/29/2011	822,872
6/30/2011	822,872
7/1/2011	822,872
7/2/2011	822,872
7/3/2011	822,872
7/4/2011	822,872
7/5/2011	990,991
7/6/2011	990,991
7/7/2011	990,991
7/8/2011	990,991
7/9/2011	990,991
7/10/2011	990,991
7/11/2011	990,991
7/12/2011	990,991
7/13/2011	990,991
7/14/2011	1,193,458
7/15/2011	1,193,458
7/16/2011	1,193,458
7/17/2011	1,193,458
7/18/2011	1,193,458
7/19/2011	1,193,458
7/20/2011	1,193,458
7/21/2011	1,193,458
7/22/2011	1,193,458
7/23/2011	1,437,290
7/24/2011	1,437,290
7/25/2011	1,437,290
7/26/2011	1,437,290
7/27/2011	1,437,290
7/28/2011	1,437,290
7/29/2011	1,437,290
7/30/2011	1,437,290
7/31/2011	1,437,290
8/1/2011	1,730,940
8/2/2011	1,730,940
8/3/2011	1,730,940
8/4/2011	1,730,940
8/5/2011	1,730,940
8/6/2011	1,730,940
8/7/2011	1,730,940
8/8/2011	1,730,940
8/9/2011	1,730,940
8/10/2011	2,084,584
8/11/2011	2,084,584
8/12/2011	2,084,584
8/13/2011	2,084,584
8/14/2011	2,084,584
8/15/2011	2,084,584
8/16/2011	2,084,584
8/17/2011	2,084,584
8/18/2011	2,084,584
8/19/2011	2,510,480
8/20/2011	2,510,480
8/21/2011	2,510,480
8/22/2011	2,510,480
8/23/2011	2,510,480
8/24/2011	2,510,480
8/25/2011	2,510,480
8/26/2011	2,510,480
8/27/2011	2,510,480
8/28/2011	3,023,390
8/29/2011	3,023,390
8/30/2011	3,023,390
8/31/2011	3,023,390
9/1/2011	3,023,390
9/2/2011	3,023,390
9/3/2011	3,023,390
9/4/2011	3,023,390
9/5/2011	3,023,390
9/6/2011	3,641,092
9/7/2011	3,641,092
9/8/2011	3,641,092
9/9/2011	3,641,092
9/10/2011	3,641,092
9/11/2011	3,641,092
9/12/2011	3,641,092
9/13/2011	3,641,092

Title: Re: What will be the difficulty in 3-4 weeks time
Post by: Sukrim on June 07, 2011, 06:49:55 PM
Europe hasn't really caught on to Bitcoin yet and who knows when asian "gaming rooms" start to see there's a cheap way to finance their equipment!
A lot can happen in 1 month...

Also: Holidays! Kids start to have even more time to mess around on the internet.


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