Bitcoin Forum

Sizing up 2016

Here's what I’m expecting for the coming 12 months in bitcoin.

1. The bitcoin network will scale

After many months of debate, I think 2016 will reveal a decision about how to scale bitcoin for the next few years.

There are a number of prudent and effective proposals on the table today, such as Pieter Wuille's 'Segregated Witness', and Adam Back’s BIP248.

I expect one of the many proposed solutions to be implemented before the summer, to then later be supplemented by innovations such as pegged sidechains and the Lightning Network.

2. Bitcoin will shine as a safe haven asset

I expect renewed volatility in global markets, and as a result I see liquidity problems popping up unexpectedly.

As a result, funds and investors will seek to hold assets with low counterparty risk. I think bitcoin will be one of these, more so than in previous years.

3. Sidechains will be appreciated as major technical breakthrough

Similar to how bitcoin had to overcome accusations of being a Ponzi scheme in the early days, sidechains technology is now met with skepticism and mistrust.

As more operational sidechains come online and their utility and open-source nature become visible to the world, I expect perception to change for the better.

4. Commodity giants will get involved with bitcoin mining

Faced with a bear market in commodity prices which implies a declining demand for electricity, some big primary sector companies will partner up with bitcoin mining companies to provide them with legal framework and physical infrastructure – allowing bitcoin transaction processing to take place in some of the most barren regions of the world.

5. The bitcoin remittance network will further strengthen

Bitcoin exchanges integrating with each other internationally, deployment of more bitcoin ATMs and growth of bitcoin-friendly remittance platforms will allow for more and more people around the world to send money to their home country using bitcoin as a vehicle.

Should we see increased volatility in fiat currencies and the enforcement of exchange rate controls, then those too will serve as a catalyst for bitcoin remittance growth.

6. The block reward halving will have a positive effect on the bitcoin price

In mid July 2016, the amount of new bitcoins awarded to bitcoin miners will drop from 3,600 BTC per day to 1,800 BTC per day.

With that, the annual increase in the bitcoin money supply will drop from 9.17% to 4.09%. Miners will have a diminished capacity to influence the markets (rumor has it that over the past two years they have engaged in quite a bit of short selling prior to pushing newly mined coins in the market).

I expect the block halving, all else being equal, to have a positive effect on the bitcoin price.

7. Investors will be surprised

Every year I've been involved in bitcoin, I've been shocked and amazed.

In the bitcoin community, developers come with new hacks and solutions on a daily basis, competition is fierce and decidedly global, investors are eager yet often inexperienced and banks and governments are uneasy and fickle.

Bitcoin technology is only seven years old and bitcoin as a financial asset is only five. If I expect anything over the next 12 months, it is to be surprised.

It’s for that reason as well that I only attach a 75% probability to the predictions above.

2016 is shaping up to become an incredible year for bitcoin – maybe it will be the year when investors finally realize they cannot afford to not pay attention to this paradigm shift in money and finance.

2. Bitcoin will shine as a safe haven asset

I expect renewed volatility in global markets, and as a result I see liquidity problems popping up unexpectedly.

As a result, funds and investors will seek to hold assets with low counterparty risk. I think bitcoin will be one of these, more so than in previous years.'



This one is most important. Every time I talk to people about bitcoin
that follow finance immediately bring up those couple months when bitcoin
when up to 1000 then crash then up then flash crash etc. It scared off
a lot of people.

could be the worst too  ;)

this is something i keep hearing year on year.

2012 - this will be the best year!
2013 - this will be the best year, no doubt about that.
2014 - this time 100% the best year, great adoption and such....
2015 - very much investors and adopters will make bitcoin reach new highs.....
2016 - do i need to say more?

More here : http://www.coindesk.com/2016-bitcoin-best-year/
So what are your thoughts on the following ? how the new is going to be for Bitcoin ?


This will be interesting.  Excited to see who joins in the innovation of this aspect of Bitcoin.

All great points and I agree with most.

this is something i keep hearing year on year.

2012 - this will be the best year!
2013 - this will be the best year, no doubt about that.
2014 - this time 100% the best year, great adoption and such....
2015 - very much investors and adopters will make bitcoin reach new highs.....
2016 - do i need to say more?

could be the worst too  ;)

You are right similar things happen in the beginng of each year (and not only with Bitcoin btw) but something is telling me that this year really will be Bitcoin's Best Year Yet. ) Why not? Let's hope for the best.

For starters we have a good start: $450 insteed of $200 in January 2015.

i doubt, the worst was 2014, and 2016 is already looking better, there is the halving there is open bazar, there ar enumerous plan to increase the block limit and so on

unless some major flaw that destroy bitcoin completely is discover, it can not go worse than 2014

It is not just about price even these current floors are looking pretty stable and are by itself sign that from the very start of this year 2016 Bitcoin is being trusted more.We will see it more valuable and usable around the globe.