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Title: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: annette786 on December 14, 2012, 07:22:36 PM You get two votes per user. I'm also allowing people to change their votes based on discussion.
Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: notme on December 14, 2012, 07:24:51 PM Major, long term investor who's bitcoin holdings became a bit overweight in his portfolio.
Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: annette786 on December 14, 2012, 07:30:16 PM I must say that I strongly suspect MTgox.
I don't believe there is any economic incentive to dump BTC like this as a long investor. It has to be someone that is getting massive amounts of BTC without buying them. MTGox makes money off trading and dumps like this creates massive trading days and brings out traders. Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: notme on December 14, 2012, 07:33:24 PM I must say that I strongly suspect MTgox. I don't believe there is any economic incentive to dump BTC like this as a long investor. It has to be someone that is getting massive amounts of BTC without buying them. MTGox makes money off trading and dumps like this creates massive trading days and brings out traders. I really need to set up that tin foil hat for btc store I've been thinking about. Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: imanikin on December 14, 2012, 07:45:50 PM I must say that I strongly suspect MTgox. +1 MtG has always been suspected, and will continue to be. Every xchange has incentive to do that. It will be impossible to prove until Bitcoin is big enough that the government regulators move in. That also means that a lot of people still have more than enough fiat to pump and dump for dollars or Bitcoin. Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: annette786 on December 14, 2012, 08:01:48 PM By the walls being setup-- someone, without question, wants you to sell your BTC.
Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: Ichthyo on December 14, 2012, 08:05:05 PM I really need to set up that tin foil hat for btc store I've been thinking about. Oh yeah... Want another conspiracy theory? Tomorrow is the first ICBIT future settled. Someone wants to manipulate the Mt.Gox rate down, maybe just by 0.50 in order to make huge profit from leveraged futures shorted at 13.50 just kidding... Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: byronbb on December 14, 2012, 08:09:44 PM Anything stop someone from selling and buying between multiple accounts to try and create fake volume?
Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: Yuhfhrh on December 14, 2012, 08:13:02 PM Anything stop someone from selling and buying between multiple accounts to try and create fake volume? MtGox fees. Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: kokojie on December 14, 2012, 08:15:58 PM Surely the news that mtgox's Jed and prosper.com founder Chris's joint venture to develop a "better" alternative coin has nothing to do with the dump, for sure.
Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: RodeoX on December 14, 2012, 08:17:29 PM Maybe it just hit a sell price for some peers?
Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: adamstgBit on December 14, 2012, 08:21:38 PM Surely the news that mtgox's Jed and prosper.com founder Chris's joint venture to develop a "better" alternative coin has nothing to do with the dump, for sure. link? Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: Kupsi on December 14, 2012, 08:23:56 PM Surely the news that mtgox's Jed and prosper.com founder Chris's joint venture to develop a "better" alternative coin has nothing to do with the dump, for sure. link? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=128413.0 Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: adamstgBit on December 14, 2012, 08:25:51 PM Surely the news that mtgox's Jed and prosper.com founder Chris's joint venture to develop a "better" alternative coin has nothing to do with the dump, for sure. link? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=128413.0 Oh Ripple Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: johnwhitestar on December 14, 2012, 08:29:10 PM I was thinking it's the end of month + end of the year dump.
Another reason from my point of view is the continuous heating of the news about the eminent release of the ASICs (which is not necessary true). Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: myself on December 14, 2012, 08:52:38 PM http://polimedia.us/bitcoin/mpex.php
Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: Stephen Gornick on December 14, 2012, 09:05:23 PM I was thinking it's the end of month + end of the year dump. In the U.S. there are big changes coming to the tax rates. So if you are in the U.S. and reporting your capital gains on your taxes, it is better to cause that transaction to occur in 2012 while the rate is lower. Quote Federal taxes on ordinary income [which includes assets held less than a year] will rise to as much as 39.6 percent from 35 percent. Long-term capital gains rates will increase to a maximum 20 percent from 15 percent, plus an additional 3.8 percent for high-income earners as a result of the 2010 health-care law. - http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-19/wealthy-advised-to-sell-for-gains-before-unfriendly-2013So if you had bought a bunch a little over a year ago at the $2 to $4 range, they couldn't have been "long term" until they were held for a year. So this is the first time that someone with a sizeable investment in bitcoins from late 2011 has been able to cash them out but still be classified as long-term gains. They aren't so much worried about losing out on further gains as in locking in the gains they've already accumulated but taking advantage of the lower tax rate. Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: rebuilder on December 14, 2012, 09:09:56 PM In the U.S. there are big changes coming to the tax rates. So if you are in the U.S. and reporting your capital gains on your taxes, it is better to cause that transaction to occur in 2012 while the rate is lower. How many people have records of how much BTC they bought and when? What documentation will the IRS accept? Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: Stephen Gornick on December 14, 2012, 09:26:43 PM How many people have records of how much BTC they bought and when? What documentation will the IRS accept? With Mt. Gox, if I remember correctly for 2011 tax year the account holder could request that an IRS 1099-B report be generated for them. Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: 01BTC10 on December 14, 2012, 09:28:58 PM Maybe a merchant that need to convert from BTC to USD no matter what.
Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: rebuilder on December 14, 2012, 09:34:04 PM How many people have records of how much BTC they bought and when? What documentation will the IRS accept? With Mt. Gox, if I remember correctly for 2011 tax year the account holder could request that an IRS 1099-B report be generated for them. That's good, I guess. Any idea how that works, more specifically? If you spent X USD over a year, at varying prices, and sold a portion of what you've bought, what will your buy-in price be counted as? Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: DeathAndTaxes on December 14, 2012, 09:54:03 PM How many people have records of how much BTC they bought and when? What documentation will the IRS accept? With Mt. Gox, if I remember correctly for 2011 tax year the account holder could request that an IRS 1099-B report be generated for them. That's good, I guess. Any idea how that works, more specifically? If you spent X USD over a year, at varying prices, and sold a portion of what you've bought, what will your buy-in price be counted as? In other assets you either need to show proof of the exact unit being sold or they are treated first in, first out. Now technically if you didn't use a shared wallet, and only sent funds to MtGox when you intended to sell the entire batch you could (through coin selection) choose which coins to sell and thus pick your basis. Not sure I would want to be the one trying to explain all that to the IRS for the first time so FIFO is likely your best bet. FIFO - First In First Out. Buy 100 BTC @ $5 Buy 100 BTC @ $7 Buy 100 BTC @ $9 Buy 100 BTC @ $11. Sell 250 BTC for $13. The Basis for the 250 BTC is (100*5 + 100*7 + 50*9)/250 = $6.60. Gain is ($13.00 - $6.60) * 250 BTC = $1,600. Note in any capital gain scenario good records are required. In the above example your remaining 150 BTC would be 50 BTC @ $9 and 100 BTC @ $11. You would need to keep a running tally of all purchases, date, and purchase prices, then all the sales and which (in order) basis they used. The good news is there is software like gainskeeper which does all this for you in equity txs. If Bitcoin gets big enough I am sure they will add a BTC module. Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: rebuilder on December 14, 2012, 10:04:29 PM In other assets you either need to show proof of the exact unit being sold or they are treated first in, first out. Now technically if you didn't use a shared wallet, and only sent funds to MtGox when you intended to sell the entire batch you could (through coin selection) choose which coins to sell and thus pick your basis. Not sure I would want to be the one trying to explain all that to the IRS for the first time so FIFO is likely your best bet. Not wanting to be the first to try it out is part of why I don't see myself selling any time soon... I figure I wait until I can either just buy something significant directly in BTC or until the profits are sufficient to justify hiring a lawyer to deal with it. Probably the former. edit: and I should note, I'd guess a lot of big early adopters are thinking along the same lines. Although Sirius apparently bought an apartment. Maybe he'd have something interesting to say on the subject. Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: ElectricMucus on December 14, 2012, 11:27:46 PM I just see a minor dump, not even worth dramatizing. Considering the upward momentum not even a dump at all.
Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: mb300sd on December 15, 2012, 01:00:40 AM Damn it people.. stop taking dumps, or at least do it in your own toilet ;)
Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: tvbcof on December 15, 2012, 01:27:19 AM In the U.S. there are big changes coming to the tax rates. So if you are in the U.S. and reporting your capital gains on your taxes, it is better to cause that transaction to occur in 2012 while the rate is lower. How many people have records of how much BTC they bought and when? What documentation will the IRS accept? I got almost all of my BTC from Tradehill and kept a dump of my activity. Will the IRS by happy with that? Dunno. Will find out if/when we get to $100-ish/BTC and I recoup my USD outlay I guess. Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: smoothie on December 15, 2012, 01:31:07 AM Damn it people.. stop taking dumps, or at least do it in your own toilet ;) DUMPTA DUMPTA DUMPITY DUMP WE ARE GOING TO TAKE A FAT DUMP! :D :D :D :D Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: zoinky on December 15, 2012, 01:33:15 AM Please dump more :)
Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: hahahafr on December 15, 2012, 05:08:52 AM 1st wave: thieve selling stolen coins because he sees that we are gonna stay at $13.x for a while.
2nd waves: panic people. Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: b!z on December 15, 2012, 07:03:55 AM Someone with no agenda just trying to sell their bitcoin is likely the most common reason.
There may be someone with many coins from a long time back, who just needs money fast. Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: TraderTimm on December 15, 2012, 06:52:29 PM I think it is just regular market activity. Some of the dumps pushed a few resting order triggers, as I was watching the raw price feed stream through. That is what it looked like to me.
As far as Mt. Gox being manipulators, they'd make far more money taking a slice out of the bid-ask spread than dumping lots of coins. Doesn't really make sense to push large amounts when they can get a non-disruptive income stream the other way. (Much like how Forex dealers make their money.) I don't think they are, but it would be the easiest way to take a cut on top of the usual 'clearing fee'. Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: xxjs on December 15, 2012, 11:55:19 PM What I have noticed, is that after a dump, new buy order creep in over the lowest prrice.
So, when it is a thin buy side and a have a few hundred to buy, I put them on buy at a quit low price. Suddenly someone comes from nowhere, diving down to my bid. So instead of waiting for the price to go low, why not place a low bid? Corresspondingly on the sell side. Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: muyuu on December 21, 2012, 11:00:57 PM What I have noticed, is that after a dump, new buy order creep in over the lowest prrice. So, when it is a thin buy side and a have a few hundred to buy, I put them on buy at a quit low price. Suddenly someone comes from nowhere, diving down to my bid. So instead of waiting for the price to go low, why not place a low bid? Corresspondingly on the sell side. Because then you are beaten to the punch, obviously. Do you expect bulls to tell you exactly what cards do they hold so you can beat them? Title: Re: Most likely source of the major dumps? Post by: disclaimer201 on December 21, 2012, 11:34:44 PM Christmas shopping
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