Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: havoc928 on December 15, 2012, 07:28:45 AM



Title: BTC exhange rates
Post by: havoc928 on December 15, 2012, 07:28:45 AM
I am new to bitcoins and have been reading up on ASIC

What will happen to the exchange rates of BTC? I am hesitant on purchasing some because of ASIC


Title: Re: BTC exhange rates
Post by: Kluge on December 15, 2012, 07:49:58 AM
I am new to bitcoins and have been reading up on ASIC

What will happen to the exchange rates of BTC? I am hesitant on purchasing some because of ASIC
Short version: If we knew what would happen, the price would've already adjusted.  ;)

Long version: Aside from a malicious ASIC manufacturer controlling 35%+ of the total network hashrate and wreaking havoc for the lulz (or as part of a CONSpIRACYYY!!1!) within the next couple months, the BTC price probably won't swing too wildly (>30%) as a result of ASICs possibly being shipped soon. However, this is definitely a time of relatively high uncertainty. The block reward halved not too long ago, which might have effects which'll take longer to play out (will "corporate" miners with ASIC farms tend to hold BTC significantly more than previous "every-man" miners? Will GPU miners drop out of the Bitcoin economy entirely because they can no longer mine BTC profitably?)... And then there's the investment side of things.... GLBSE is gone (though some new exchanges have recently appeared to fill the hole), and most Issuers still have a clusterfuck of a situation on their hands. Investment seems largely dead outside the Godly work Ver, Shrem, and the like do, which may result in less demand for coins (a non-trivial number of $50k+ investors "quit" Bitcoin after Pirate fled). Silk Road recently moved ahead with a massive increase in the price of seller accounts, which may limit the availability of certain items, possibly stifling growth of their userbase (probably only in a minor way). OTOH, Bitcoin adoption has made dramatic progress over the past month, with both 4chan and Wordpress accepting Bitcoin. The Bitcoin debit card is on the horizon, too. Great things are coming, and they may or may not be tragic failures. x steps forward, y steps back - variables to be determined.

ETA: Thread belongs in Speculation.


Title: Re: BTC exhange rates
Post by: bb113 on December 15, 2012, 07:56:58 AM
its the most interesting experiment around. If you are into that type of thing get involved.