Bitcoin Forum

A question for you guys who are buying BTC as an investment for the future.

c4c

BTC3.50000000

I don't give a shit as long as its not less than it is now.

 ;)

What will the [Euro, USD, GBP, Gold, Silver, Apple Stock, Corn, Beef, Oil] be worth next week, in a year, in 2040?

It is a good question.  I kow you are specifically asking the investors among us I am not, at least not on a large scale.

I do know that you have to understand the market forces that affect BTC in order to make such a evaluation. 

The influx of new BTC has been halved.  New business, new ways to move BTC in and out of currencies are being derived.  It would be nice for someone with a financial analysts back ground to layout a model for evaluation.

My vote is on $17-$19 given how much it has went up this past year.

It'll depend more on the value of the currency you're comparing to than the value of bitcoin.

Based on the poll choices, no possibility of going down?  Hang on a second let me take out a second mortgage real quick.

I think it'll be between $20-50 in Dec 2013

That's not true.  As more people around the globe start using bitcoins the more scarce they become, which increases their value.

0,1 EUR

lol at poll results. I think people say 20+ because they want it to be 20+ not because they think it will actually be 20+

Think again   ::)

I'd say something around $18-$20, since that is what will probably happen.

Where is the "lower than $13" option?

I think we will be around $15-20/BTC a year from now.

Seen the news lately?

Im not buying Bitcoins to put away for the future at the moment, I posted the poll just to see what other peoples thoughts were.

I see BTC like any other commodity and with there being a finite number being produced as more goods and services are able to be purchased with BTC and demand rises I can't see why they would ever go down in value.

In fact I was I speaking to a professional investor and mathematician yesterday who considers BTC the number one best investment in the world at this time.

One man's opinion of course.

c4c

Around 5-6 USD

I'm starting to think you've asked the wrong question.

Perhaps:   How many dollars will a Bitcoin buy in 12 months?

More then what they are today.

LOL... Tell that to your customers at Bitcons Direct.

It is true.

since this is just a poll, i say around $20

 How much wood could a woodchuck.......

People buying and hoarding bitcoins are responsible for the mania that results in the crashes that occur a few times every year, and they are the ones most hurt by these crashes.

If you are about to buy bitcoins because you expect the price to quadruple next year, then you are about to make a big mistake. Absurd expectations are a classic feature of a bubble just before it bursts.

I don't feel comfortable when the value of BTC is increasing much faster than gold or silver or other currencies against the dollar or the euro. It's an indication of a bubble fueled by irrational expectations.

Why did I listen? I was going to buy Bitcoins when they were $5 each. I think unless Bitcoins legal prospects (or technical prospects) change, the price will continue to rise, although probably slowing gradually, and will be between $17 and $25 in December of 2013.

If governments start spewing crap at it, then unfortunately, I think Bitcoin won't do too well.

Major crashes seem mainly driven by scares such as exchange hacks, not hoarding. Hoarders could only crash the market if they decided to dump sufficient BTC in one go, right?

And they dump at the first sign of trouble because they realize they might actually lose money instead of making 1000%.

The price of Bitcoin will rise permanently as it is a deflationary currency.

But if the "big fish" like smoothie - the biggest owners of bitcoin keep doing this shit speculation like today, people will find it risky to use bitcoins... that's the danger.

The big speculators underestimate their influence on the market, they can destroy the future of bitcoin just for their own interrest. They would earn more if they just left it alone and bitcoin would become mainstream...

That's my opinion...

You are right to a certain extent, but Bitcoin's already had it's huge bubble, and seems more stable now. The expectations aren't entirely irrational because the supply of Bitcoins is drying up (as far as mining goes) and the demand is presumably rising as more people adopt. I think growth will slow, but Bitcoin probably isn't done just yet.

That being said, I would welcome a mini-crash to about $8 so I can buy some! I made the mistake of missing out when they were $5.

Sorry I didn't put an option on the poll for the price to drop, most people seem to think they're on the way up anyway but still I should have put some lower choices on the poll.

I'll keep the poll open as this is turning into quite an interesting thread, I'm enjoying this forum a lot already.

c4c

I think it depends on several factors. If there is some sort of currency collapse by which people start to use bitcoin to replace their fiat transactions, that will be beneficial.

However, what I really think it will come down to is the bitcoin entrepreneurs creating technologies that become relevant to individuals. Once the average person can make bitcoin purchases at any store with a debit card, similar to what Paymium has begun to do in Europe, when someone can plug a safe into a wall that securely stores bitcoin savings with no setup or technical knowledge from the user, once bitcoin transactions into fiat currencies are instant and fluid, once I can get direct deposit in bitcoins. These are the types of things that lead to bitcoin being so easy and enjoyable for an individual to use without technical knowledge to make every day transactions, even from businesses who do not currently accept bitcoin.

Who knows what one thing develops that gets a million people to join bitcoin. Once a debit card comes out, I have at least 6 friends who will join. The potential is amazing.

I'd say there is a 90% chance that they'll be worth more at the end of 2013 than today. I'm not sure of the exact amount but I believe that one day a Satoshi will be worth 1USD - one day!

I only discovered bitcoin a few days ago (I've been travelling the world and lost in the wilderness too long), and I think this is like the start of the internet all over again, this will be just as revolutionary if not more so. Everyone is saying "I wish I had bought more when they were cheaper" or "it's too late for me" what these people don't realise is that THIS IS the early days - bitcoin is still way on the fringes which is a great thing for us early adopters :)

They will be worth more at the end of 2013 - how much more? Nobody really knows but in the long term over 5 - 10 years or so you are looking at MASSIVE gains

The way The Bernank' is printing, that day may arrive sooner than expected. ;D


Massive gains or fail are the two most likely scenarios, in my (and some others') opinion.

Why isn't there a "stays the same" option?

Man, that's crazy-talk.

Agreed, it's not allowed to stay the same, and it's definitely not allowed to go down.

$TEXAS

Well they might not be worth anything if the world goes to hell... Dec 21 2012... Hehe.  ;D

Compare with Paypal

Total ammount of transactions in 2009 - 71 billion USD

Bitcoins in circulation 10 500 000

71 000 000 000 / 10 500 000 = 6761 usd/btc

This is just to have some approx. imagination

Even if a bitcoin was worth 0,01 euro, I would still use bitcoins.
It makes things so easy (send bitcoins to whoever you want, with
low transaction fees) and difficult (to be hack and controlled)

It used to be $ 1, $ 31 now it's $ 13 does it matter?
As long as we can send and receive bitcoins that's worth more
then whatever pricetag you throw @ it.

Lets hope your wish stay a wish. Because it will blow a bubble if it come true and bubbles tend to blow up. A currency should not grow to fast.

This is an interesting point, if Bitcoins become too valuable they will become useless as a currency and will be just another finite commodity like oil, gold, diamonds etc.

The difference is although we like the whole Bitcoin philosophy and the way the system works what use do they actually have as a currency if they are worth $10,000 per coin. They'll just end up being part of wealthy peoples diversified investment portfolio's.

c4c

No, that is why we have millibitcoins, microbitcoins and satoshis. (Centi-whatever is for pimps).

You are underestimated the Russian (there is no paypal) China, Australia,Canada, South America, Europe, Middle East,Africa ect. ect.

The world isn,t JUST America and thats way i believe in BITCOIN ..when its taking over the world the price be way over $20,-

Even if only the use would be illegal stuff ect. still it will go up..then also the legal possibilities and the mainstream use of it the rocket just started to go up..just my 2 cents  ;) ;) ;) ;)
 

That's a strange comparison. If all Bitcoins are moved 100 times per year the value only has to be ~$70.00 on average to get to 71 billion USD transaction volume per year.

http://www.capitalblueprints.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/one-million.jpg

He know's  ;D

Imagine if they were ever to go that high and we were all the new generation of "dot-com" millionaires lol. One can dream!

ha ha ha well it is a fundamentally disruptive technology (which normally means BIG changes) that could well bring as much change as the internet for so many reasons. It is still in its infancy.

I dream at night of cryptocurrencies and us buying spacetrips with them in 20 years ;)

I know it's a strange comparison, that's why I wrote some approx. imagination

But how would you compare it to Paypal?

How many transactions will be done with all BTCs during one year?

There is aprox and there is mixing two unrelated numbers.  
It would be like saving a Prius gets 60mpg and a Porsche can go 240 mph so a Prius is worth 1/4th as much as a Porsche. :)

So even as guestimate we need to look at same units.

Today BTC has an annual estimated* tx volume of ~$1,227 (http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=) million and the money supply is ~$140 million.  This means the Bitcoin economy has a velocity of ~9 (each coin is exchanged 9 times per year on average).

If Bitcoin had tx volume equal to PayPal that is ~$71B tx per year and ...  
If the velocity of 9 holds then the money supply would be valued at $71B /9 = $7.8B.  

If we assume this happens in 4 years when there are ~16M BTC minted that would put the exchange rate at ~$486 USD:BTC.  
If we assume this happens in 8 years when there are ~18M BTC that would put the exchange rate closer to ~$432 USD:BTC.  

Granted there is a lot of "guess" in that guesstimate (and it shouldn't be taken as more than a guess).  A large portion of the value of BTC is speculation and as Bitcoin gets larger and larger its growth will slow and the speculation premium will decline.  Also the velocity of 9 may not hold it could be much higher or lower in the future but it is a starting point.




* Blockchain.info looks at tx and attempts to estimate which output is the tx and which is the change.  It is a guesstimate only.

Nice summary. It's difficult to compare it tho:
* Someone could move 100k a few times and drastically increase the transaction volume.
* A lot of BTC are moved on web services (e.g. exchanges) without a transaction.
* ...

True however both of those factors would only materially matter IF they change significantly as Bitcoin tx volume rises.  One way to look at them is we are comparing tx volume to price and any excess or "unreported" tx are already baked into the current price.

However I should stress that was just a guestimate.  A back of the napkin SWAG.  It at least compares similar units as opposed to comparing tx volume (measurement over time) to money supply (a point measurement).

I just looked at it like a question of "how many windows are there in New York City?

Who can tell, but perhaps bitcoin may become something different, ie netdollar. This is all very new, so I'd be wary about buying for investment.

As long as people continue to use it, it should be around. Still I would not invest either...

40-50 is a reliable guess imo

I'm guessing around $17 American based on the current steady inflation of the price. Makes me wonder if vendors will start lowering the Bitcoin price or let it ride?

Id be surprised if it was still below $100 in 12 months.
Even though BTC is up almost 300% from its lows this year, $150m for market cap is peanuts when you consider that some WallStreet CEOs make more than that in a year. The real mania has yet to begin. 99% of the people out there have not even heard of Bitcoin, let alone buy some.

Unfortunately this also means that there will be a bigger crash than the previous bubble eventually in percentage terms.

I believe it will break 20, but i also believe that this will invite alot of other similar currenceys to use that as a means to drive people to theres. like lite coin or whatever may come.

I just cant see the set amount of BTC after its all been mined will be enough world wide, given there are alot of horders so IMO. but then again im used to USD. and for me having 1/20th of a bitcoin being a dollar just doesnt sit right. kinda like 1000 pesos sounds like alot its not. (ive got 1000 mbtc!!!!!)  or i could be too stoned... i hope i make sence.

I agree with your first paragraph but moderately disagree with the second. BTC is unlikely (though obviously not impossibly unlikely) to fall in price by over 90 per cent again, in my humble opinion.

The demand for Bitcoin will steadily grow during the next year. BTC will reach $18 at the end of 2013.

Also the more the banks only thinking about themselfs instead of there customers, Crisis in 2013 getting worst in most lands people feeling they get scammed by pensionfunds and bringging millions to waek countries, maybe the new weaponlaws in the US, al that will be in favor of the use and economie of BTC exactly what we need at the exact moment in time,
mark my words its not just the money making BTC,  it will get its use it,s made for... ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)

This thread always remind me of this dude:

http://mygayblog.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/predictions.jpg

Ha ha ha!

I'm pretty optimistic myself - no crystal ball required :)

I can rise upto 15$ - 17$..

it would be around 10 - 20$

BTC value will be over 30$+ by 12 months.. Mark my word!

Somewhere between $40 and $80 looks realistic, I think. Much more than that and it could be a bubble, who knows? Bitcoin is still officially in beta. Should a few "big boys" get involved with bitcoin investments, for any reason, expect the exchange rate to top $100 in no time at all, but that won't necessarily be this year.

Between $30 and $50 per BTC in 12 months ???

I think $22-$25

Surely you can't compare the value of something without taking into account how many units there are?  Now we know exactly how many bitcoins exist, but knowing how much gold and silver is out there is a little harder.

From my hunting online, these are the figures I have come up with:

	| Bitcoin	| Silver	| Gold
Units	| 10,717,175	| 500,000,000*	| 5,304,873,180*
Price ($US)	| $19.20	| $31.15	| $1660.80
Market Cap	| $205,769,760	| $15,575,000,000	| $8,810,333,377,344

* Troy ounces (above ground investment availability)

Bitcoin is worth:

1.321% of Silver
0.002% of Gold

or Bitcoins would be worth:

$1,453 if equal to Silver
$822,076 if equal to Gold

Please discuss if this is the right way to calculate the value of Bitcoin.

$100 even.

I'm sure there's an element of that going on - but I would answer that myself anyway based on the last 12 month trend, the fact that it's already $16 or more, and scarcity of coins/effort of mining is going up.

On the basis of the above, I'd be hard pressed to see it not surpassing $20, and probably fairly soon!

$40-$50, it's just like gold. Limited supply, price will keep rising.

Will only be as much as people are willing to give for it... They have no intrinsic value.

BUT if you can trade them for IRL goods this becomes another story, they will only boom if lots more of big online merchants start to accept them. Imagine Amazon or eBay although I doubt this will happen anytime soon...

first post, glad i found this forum, there's a ton of good info here.

I expect BC value to go down a bit. But as long as it useful it is going to stick around.

You do realize the nominal value of something is mostly irrelivent.  What matters is the aggregate.

For example imagine Satoshi had decided to make the total number of coins 2.1 billion and the intitial block reward 5000 BTC.  Everything being the same BTC might be trading at 1 BTC = ~$0.20.  Would that make it a better price.

Likewise today 1 ton of silver costs about $1,000,000 USD or 20,000 BTC.  Wow silver is really expensive huh?  20,000 BTC for silver?


Well with simplistic thinking only in nominal terms I am totally surprised you undervalued it.   
BTW today 1 mBTC = ~$0.02.  You have a chance to get them while they are cheap.  Only 2 cents each an amazingly low price.

I've made about 30% on my initial btc just by starting when I did. Don't want to count on that, though.

Chaz, and others, in my opinion this is NOT the correct way to value Bitcoin.

The price of Bitcoin, or Gold for that matter, depends on Supply and Demand, and on the Elasticity of these two things.

The Supply of Bitcoins comes from two places: mining, and people who have Bitcoins watching the price decide that the time is right to sell.
Of these people there are many different types: early adopters, investors who feel they have made their money and should take some profit, even investors
running scared as the price falls. The way the number of bitcoins on the market changes with price I call the elasticity.

The Demand for Bitcoins comes from many places, investors, traders etc. It too has some elasticity, perhaps not as much as the supply.
The Demand is affected by a couple of major things right now: the increased use of Bitcoin as a currency and the increased use of Bitcoin as an investment vehicle.
These are major major factors that are going to increase Bitcoin Demand in the next year.

The supply of Bitcoins from mining has recently halved: the reward went from 50 to 25 per block. This is very significant as it places the onus of supply squarely on the price.

We can be sure that mining aside,  Supply WILL equal Demand, because each Bitcoin bought is sold by someone. Those mined are a fixed amount per unit time, more or less and the Demand has reached a stage where it massively outstrips Bitcoins mined. (I ought to prove this as it would be easy to prove or disprove.)

My conclusion then is that the correct way to decide what price Bitcoin will reach in a year is to look at supply and demand and see how these are matched.

The answer is they are not. Demand is set to massively increase due to increased use as a currency and people using it as an investing instrument (and yes, people using it as a cheap way to transfer currency across the world.)  This Demand can only be satisfied if the price rises massively. So, I suggest that this is what will happen.

Demand will go up by a factor of 10 this year. I dont know exactly what the elasticity of Supply is, but I do know that Demand too will be fuelled by a continuously rising price.

This is of course crystal ball territory.  My Guess, $40 to $80 per bitcoin by the end of January 2014.

Why not more than $80?  Well at $80 someone who invests now has quadrupled their investment. Thats so good that they would be thinking sell the coins and run, so I think that in a year its not possible to have an upside of more than 3 or 4 times.  This selling would exert a downward pressure. It can happen, but not in a single year.

Thats my crystal ball gazing done.



 

Decent post, mintymark.

Yes, three to four times increase annually has looked like the new norm, but we need to take light of the fact that the BTC price has increased more than thousandfold within about three years. That's not to say it's going to repeat that over the next three, but growth of more than 300% pa is possible. That said, I tend to agree with your $40-$80 assessment.

bitcointip mintymark +BTC0,001

I'd just point out a couple of things. With bitcoin getting noticed more.... all it takes are a few big fish to start buying. That alone could drive price up. There are plenty of people in the world who are capable of buying large chunks of bitcoins with their pocketchange.

With asics coming into play.... the supply from mining side will be more concentrated in the hands of fewer people. This means that they could potentially influence the market more than before. Not if they sell but if they don't sell the coins they mine.

I think the keepers of larger amounts of bitcoins all have ideas about how much they think bitcoins are worth. If bitcoins rise up in price it will hit these tiers... where people will either spend or sell at least some of the bitcoins they hold because they finally feel that's how much they are actually worth.  That, combined with day traders will cause spikes in the price ... but the price will not drop as low.. and the highs will get higher.

I think 1 year from now the price will be around 37. just a guess