Bitcoin Forum

Currently new BC are created worth of 1.4 million dollars every day. If we assume that the current need for BC is worth of 1.4 million dollars a day and BC supply halves, shouldn't that mean, that price should double? Or has that allready been baked in the current price?

It should rise logically yes but it won't double because the daily mined coins are going to get halved from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC and not every coin that exists on the world will get halved . only the new mined ones

Yes I understand that  ;D

My reasoning is that there atm is influx worth of 1.4 million dollars  a day from fiat to bc and that influx doesn't care about block reward. But you are right, it won't double, because existing bitcoin owners have incentive to sell their coins because price is higher.

Ad the topic is talking about the halving, does anyone know when the halving will happen?

Block reward halving, not BC halving. Approximately 2016-07-18.

Thanks for the answer.
Well we have time, beginning of the year is always hard for btc price to with a bit of luck we should be able to stock a few coins at low price before the halving  :P

due to diff increase, it will end up eventually in the +50% more range, so a 600-700 range is more correct than simply saying it will double

it will increase for sure, it is almost certain, it can not decrease because otherwise, always due to the diff miners will have no real profit

Well, I'm not saying you're wrong in any way, but saying "it can not decrease because otherwise, always due to the diff miners will have no real profit" is not a real argument, after all miners could stop making profit. That would just mean a fee increase or the end of btc  ;D

then sell your bitcoin because you're basically advocating for the died scenario of bitcoin,  there is no way that miners will leave all their peta for nothing, there is no bitcoin died scene for now

price must increase otherwise the diff will decrease, but seeing how all big farms run at 0.05 cent of electricity and have all roied on their previous equipments, who the hell will leave? none

I never really thought about it before but right enough, price shouldn't be expected to double because only mined coins are halfing although im still curious as to how it will affect price if at all. I suppose if we are looking at roughly 6 months till the halfing then 600-700 would be reasonable though i only expect around $500 even that might be a push, to me $500 stable with no danger of going down would not be too bad, probably disappointing for others though.

Well it should still double in fact, but on a VERY long trend, when new coins become more numerous than old one  ;D

As the halving will also mean less btc produced, it seems fair to say it will rise suddenly then keep going up and up. The halving will support the current up trend of btc

Indeed. this would only be true though if there was going to be more new coins than old but due to the fact that 15 million out of 21 have already been mined we will never have more new ones than old. So really any price increase is just pure speculation. Just perhaps people holding onto old ones.

Whaou, I didn't know it was 15/21...
That means that the price can skyrocket or totally dump with the only fact that early adopter have millions of coins..

i was not aware of that incredible number. It means btc is really an unreliable coin...

not really, i mean we are many many years away from before all coins are mined and bitcoin price is at what it is now regardless of early adopters. there is not realy anybody out there with millions of coins except maybe satoshi which is a non issue at the moment. The longer bitcoin is around the more spread out these millions of coins are getting.

Is there a way to check this? I bet it would feel safer if we knew exactly which proportion the 1% owes. Cause if they start spreading this it can dump everything hard!

yeah well there is a btc rich list here :-
But theres no way of really knowing how much one person has since they can have it split across multiple addresses.

As far as im aware theres nothing to stop that, but im sure that some people do keep an eye on these addresses and the transactions they make so its maybe easier for other people to work out how much some people hold. but theres nothing stopping an insanely rich person buying 1 million bitcoin today as long as hes willing to pay whatever they are worth, and either way if moneys going into it then its good for the bitcoin community as a whole. if someone from 2011 or whenever holds 1 mil coins though and decides to dump then not so good. Someone else would probably be able to tell you what old miners still hold a large amount other than satoshi since these things can be checked.

I also expect the same not like 1k. 600-700 range seems to be perfect and achievable by july this year.

perhaps even sooner and then maybe we will see small pump for price to go over 1K and then stable price is maybe little higher 700-800
if we consider all think that this price will be in most of this year

price won't doubled because only newly mining coin rewards halved but what about the coins that are already in the market, we can see 10-15 % growth on halving

you can expect up to 50% maybe more but after that expect for price to go stable again in some nice range 600-700 or 700-800 it would be nice

It's definitely not baked in the current price. During 2016 we can definitely achieve to see the price double from current price point, but it can also go much higher and bring us a new ATH, which would be a great milestone. It has not much to do with the block rewards being cut by 50% and that the price must go up 100%. That's what I consider to be nonsense. It will be the demand and speculation that will be the main driver that will push the price possibly to over $1000 again this year.

I remember reading somewhere that the current BTC price is just how much it should be given the current supply of Bitcoin.
I wish I could find that article again..

it will for sure double in value, but the question is, from what price will it double. this question has been asked quite frequently when the price was still below $250. if the price will double from $300, then we will see $600, which might seem low for some people. if it starts to double from $400, then $800 will be our price. it's something we don't know. only time will tell.

In my opinion, the block reward halving will create a pump BEFORE the halving actually begins because people will assume that when it happens the supply will drop so the demand will increase! That's what create the pump in bitcoin price. However what will happen AFTER the halving is unpredictable, bitcoin whales may wait for such a great time to make a big dump which acts like a kill switch to the whole bitcoin economy (if they won't, the crowd may do that part) or the hype will continue and the price got pumped even higher becoming a big bubble. In the best scenario, the price will increase steadily BEFORE and AFTER the halving but that doesn't simple just happen!

We should embrace ourselves for a wild ride with bitcoin price ;D

Regards
zodiac3011

So I have a question for you - why bitcoin didn't double its value right after 1st halving? Why litecoin didn't double its value either?
At first it seems logical that bitcoin price will go up. I agree with that. But it is bitcoin world and things are not so simple and logical here.

i agree with snorek, there hasnt been much mentioned regarding the LTC halving and its price,  i think certin people are pumping.  i agree tho that the price will rise, to where, no one knows

Cannot do this supposition. The need for bitcoin daily is not determined by the supply of only one day but for overall supply of bitcoin in existence. So more than 15 million bitcoin. Then the demand is not the same every day. If we see the number of transaction that can be a lateral and indirect indicator of demand the demand is doubled within the 2015 compared to 2014 (are doubled the number of transactions). This can be an indicator that show that the demand of one day is not the amount supposed by you. Because it was an increase of it (increase of transactions) day by day while the flow of supply of bitcoin in the market was the same.

the situation right now is way more different than the first halving. currently there is much more money involved, more users, more holders, rich investors are finding their way to bitcoin, we have mega mining farms right now, demand from china. all this is reason enough to make the comming block halving way more different. and when the media is airing bitcoin news, then it can be considered an extra push.

I also think that is the only logical thing to happen. But you never know, the price might crash, because it would stay the same, but miners will want to sell it for more due to higher maintenance cost (same as before for less profit).

That is a bad assumption. Newly-mined bitcoins are only a small part of the supply. Your number is probably off by a factor of ten.

Furthermore, bitcoins are not consumed. The supply of bitcoins is growing every day and will continue to grow after the halving. In order to maintain the current price, the demand must grow at least at the rate of the growth of the supply. The halving will require less growth in demand in order to maintain the current price.

Your calculation is not wrong, but it can't double immediately.
The value of bitcoin will rise of course but maybe gradually, i hope the end of the year the price will be doubled

There is no reason for the price to double, your logic is correct yes...but the value of Bitcoin is entirely dependent on supply and demand. So, if the free market thinks the value of each Bitcoin should double then it WILL double. If the market thinks the Bitcoin price should half, then it will half.

The price rose in the previous halving from 50 to 25. I think the price will also rise when it is from 25 to 12.5.

We can only know when the time of halving occurs. for now we can only speculate for the future price of BTC, You can invest in a few BTC for now.and hold it for 8 - 10 months.

If all the bitcoins users think that bitcoin will increase price before halving, its possible that we have a big pump before that, and with the halving the bitcoin price decrease because some of these users wants to sell and collect the earnings. I think that is a good opportunity now to buy some bitcoins to sell before the halving at higher prices.

It is always a good thing before halving to stock up some bitcoin, few other people will do so as well so that atleast could get the price higher than the current price. The next halving will make distribution alot more less so according to economic law, the rarer something is the higher the price will be

That is  true, with each passing year bitcoin market grows and is undoubtedly much bigger compared to the state we had during 1st halving, that's for sure.
But it is apart from larger market cap, more people involved and money floating around it is unwise to think that situation will be much different than after 1st halving.
Bitcoin is still new and people are not familiar with the process it will scale, for many it will be first halving and they could panic and sell before or do something more irrational.

It won't double because it's already somewhat in the price already.

Think about when a company releases earnings reports. We already know they will make $X per share, so even though it is good news it doesn't affect much because it's expected (assuming earnings are close to target)

it will surely bump the price ump in my opinion

There will surely be a price rise. Maybe even a pump. I predict the price will rise to the $600 to 700 in the few months before and after the halving.

I really hope it does. Then I will make quite a bit of profit.

If there is a pump, the price could reach $1500 or higher. The stock market is in turmoil at the moment. If 0.001% of that money comes to bitcoin, the price will be much higher.

You are saying one of the most obvious thing, of course the price will go up if there is a pump because there isnt anyway for the price to increase unless someone decided to buy alot at once or alot of people buying small amount at the same time ( both are pump as well ) but there should be one coming since halving is near

I don't think the price will double, I think we'll more see a 25%-50% increase. However, if the price fall before it, we may see the price doucle or even triple then, but this would assume really specific conditions.

It will not be double but if we could reach another 10 % or 20 % increase than that is alot already. At the current price, 10 % is more than $40 and 20 % would be $80 that is some sweet profit for trading as most people own atleast 5 btc to trade, on average people have 10 btc to trade according to data

it has  started,bitcoin is going up fast just like a rocket,in reversal to oil which is going down .
so whats driving btc go up? i will hold my btc until the time it is ready to sell.

I really hope there won't be a big bubble like that one in late 2013, when it crashes, it won't be a good thing for Bitcoin in general, though it would certainly survive a crash like that again.
We would just have months upon months of very low volatility then, I'm not a big fan of that either.

we can only speculate but remember that is only year started so anything can happen and expect till halving

Even if im pretty sure that the price will raise i will not care about the halving, what has to happen will happen, but don't forget that bitcoin is not alone in the world there is a huge economy behind it, bitcoin will have a great success after the halvin just because of that, at least IMHO ofc :P

Yea, this is most likely how it will play out. It's funny because Bitcoin has risen more than 10000% since its birth, and people think it has no potential if it does not continue that trend.

When bitcoin becomes bigger, the network effect will make it even bigger. That is similar to Tweet or Facebook.

Yes it is already increased considering the fact of halving.There is no more increase/pump in future.Though they could take it to 10k$ tonight but it is not likely to happen as it might destroy the Eco-system or its functioning.Nothing more than 30% for now.

I don' think that the price will double, but it may rise up to about $600 which is 1.5 times the price now.

The post is not full correct and for the not correct part I have made a post before. Here I will comment only the part in bold. The answer for the part in bold is yes, the price should be increased for sure (if the financial rules of the centralized currencies would be able to have power even in the world of the decentralized currencies). But cannot be never told or predicted the amount because of to many other factors (existing or that can be created). But in one ideal situation (when everything remain as it was before the halving and the only parameter which change is the halving of the supply) the price would be doubled. But at 100% percent this situation cannot be verified never in the reality. This mean even that never cannot be predicted in what amount (and even if) would be the amount of this increase.

The price could double, but it also depends on new money coming into the bitcoin economy. Without new money, the price will not rise.

Yes. We need more users of the bitcoin, if we have 1 million new users and each of them hold 1 bitcoin, it will raise the price quite a lot.

That's right only the block reward is going to halve.This will not effect the supply of bitcoins because there would still more coins added albeit at  reduced quantity.This will not create any scarcity of bitcoin and not much gap in demand and supply curve.If bitcoin price goes up,it would be because of market forces in operation at that time and not because of reward halving

But won't halving functionally double the cost of mining?  And if the miners are facing doubled costs, the only answer is doubled prices.

I guess you could say the cost per mined bitcoin doubles, but that is complicated. It is simpler and more straightforward to say that the cost of mining stays the same, but the revenue drops by half, especially because when the dust settles the revenue really drops by less than half for the miners that remain.

I guess you mean by "the only answer is doubled prices" is that the only way for mining to remain unchanged is for the price to double. Mining is constantly changing. There is no reason why it should remain unchanged.

Has mining really changed since ASIC showed up?  I mean, any efficiency increases at this point are going to be incremental rather than revolutionary.  The machines doing the mining are already optimized for the task at hand.

Mining is always changing, esp when those producers are investing in more effecient ways to mine outside from the ASIC chip route.

You can see now the smallest efficient miners by antminer are these tiny wireless router looking things and most are with cloud despite the risk.

If we discover a way faster chip then the ASIC then yes, but until then best we can do is cut down the energy consumption on a miner at this point like the producers have done.

no because there is something called asic efficiency, which essentially doubles for every new generation, so their consumption is basically halved

and the value yes is manipulated by the mienrs itself to face the halving, it's not like there is a secret demand that increase the value at each halving...

If the demand is the same and the supply is halved, the price will rise. But will not double as supply can be from existing coins.

Well halving means that miners will get less money so price will have to rise or miners won't mine anymore, so we should see a decent price rise after halving, which will happen in july, and i think that we will see price around 700$ after halving

The supply is not halved. Bitcoins are not consumed. The supply is greater now than before the previous halving, and it will be greater after the next halving than it is now.


If the price does not rise after the halving, then some miners will certainly stop mining. This will cause the difficulty to fall but it will not cause the price to rise.

I would assume that most of the increase has already been baked into the current price. Everyone has known about the halving, and everyone is of the mind it will increase the price. From that perspective, consider that the price has risen from $220 in August of 2015 to $410 in March of 2016, a slow and steady increase of 86% shortly before the halving.

Coincidence?

I think he's talking about the inflationary supply of the newly minted coins. The rate they are produced is halved, but it's not the same as supply.

that increase is already nullified from the diff increase, that it will increase again if new asic will come before the halving, so the halving need in some way to generate a new high in value to sustain the miners profit

it can be that miners ar elucky and there will be an increase in demand, they can will be able to make some profit before this happen even after the halving, tnx to their new gear with better efficiency

or simpy they will manipulate the value to increase it artificially

Well the halving will affect the price as already had affected,bitcoin jumped from 250 dollars to 400  because the halving.I dont know how long the aproaching of it may affect once again the bitcoin price.But till end the year bitcoin will hit atleast 600 dollars,if the miners or the comunity will pump the coin i dont know but one thing is sure it will go up.

It's not at all guaranteed to to $600 by the end of the year. If it were, it would already be there because otherwise people would be leaving money on the table. I think you mean to say you *hope* it gets to $600 by the end of the year, but I'm skeptical. I would guess it's likely we see a price fall after the halving from all the people expecting a huge price swing and then dumping quickly if it doesn't materialize.

there is nothing for sure when it comes to speculating about bitcoin price, you can just make guesses by looking at the charts and do some analysis plus checking how the overall tendency is.
so far it looks good, and all things point to a rise because of the block halving.

Or its already did risen because of the halving. It's nearly doubled since August. There's not a real good reason to expect it to rise further at this point because of the halving.

it definitely is a possibility that the block halving price is already calculated in todays price, but i strongly think we can gain at least another 50% from current price level this year. just wait for the panic buyers to start buying as they don't want to stay behind. last minute buyers will probably cause a small rally just before or just after the halving. that's what people here are waiting for. ACTION!

so what that it has doubled? it is going to rise even more, most of people will start buying bitcoins like a few weeks before halving

in my opinion we just need to wait and see if the bitcoin price will rise, i personally am holding my bitcoins right now and waiting

Always demand increases gradually when user increase. Also the supply will be continued with the previously mined coins, upcoming product gets halved.

Yeah but even though the price will possibly go up, do you think it will go as much as 50%? I feel like those type of days for coins are few and far between.
The 2013 years are over, sad but its true.

Exactly said, every time we can't expect the same 50% increase. By the year of 2013  the price went steep increase due to the entry of large number of users and their imaginative speculations.

The point is that smart people bought because of the halving a long time ago. The price is not going to magically double the day before the halving, but that's what simple people expect. So if you do get a rush of morons buying the day before the halving, it will create a bubble that will pop as soon as the upwards momentum runs out, so if you're buying now, you're basically gambling that you won't be one of the people holding the bag as the bubble deflates.

The time for Bitcoin to increase in price because of the halving has already passed from an economic standpoint because rational markets are forward-looking and liquid markets are efficient, which means the obvious economic reason for a price increase is already baked into the price. The next "halving" related increase will be based on mania, hype, and speculation. If you want to gamble like that, just go play a dice game, as you can get much more reasonable odds.

The price could double to $800 a few months after the halving. But it will reach at least $800 this year.

The bad thing is that you never know what will happen with the BTC price after the halving and that is not so good for the people who already have some Bitcoin.
But they have to wait a long time if they want to make some profit otherwise it is not possible, I heard some things that it will be not rise after the halving.

And some people are depended on the halving and that is not good, they will be mad if the value is not rising.

If you were able to predict / know the price after any event (not just the halving), you will be a millionaire.  ::)
There are risks involved with everything.
With Bitcoin, the risk involved is higher; so is the possible reward.

Yes, I believe the halving has been baked in already.  I have said this before, but since this is not some new event we should expect the bitcoin market to at least be a little bit efficient.  I'm watching this, I can't wait until it happens so we can see if we're going to get a price spike.

Bitcoin will give profitable price before halving. Long time no increase, so its expected to circulate between $425 to $450 by the coming months.

The worst part is that we can't predict what will happen to bitcoin after halving. I heard that there is no great change after halving. So it is better to gain some profit rather to lose and thing here is, the people with more btc will suffer.

I beg to differ with those who say halving will not have any effect on bitcoin price.Halving will make Bitcoin less available in market which will lead to price hike.Halving will also make Bitcoin again in news and media attention will attract more people to bitcoin which in turn again increase price

i dont think that the price will be so low, im pretty sure there should be a huge upwards trend in an upcoming two months or so what will push the price significantly up

i hope that bitcoin price will grow a lot during the halving as i have some bitcoins and i hope that this investment will earn me some good money in a long run

I think and hope the halving will cause a temporary price drop. This should allow some good btc flow in the future

hopefully before the halving, the price should inflate a bit to soften the price drop.

Its been baked in every since last month too lol.

It`ll stay as a revelent topic discussion until it actually finally comes within the 2 months time frame or whenver it does.

lol why would you think that halving will make the price drop down ? Even in the scenario of already factored in halving price tanking, the
halving itself will start speculative investing, do i really doubt price will drop, at least not for some time.
Notice how current price is holding for quite some time, proving that we can maintain the price with current fiat flowing in..

I dont know till where bitcoin can really grow,last year bitcoin were on 250-300 dollars,todays we are on the 410 dollars without anything related to make such up ,soo maybe a part of the new price has already present ,i dont like to be pessimist but the halving may be a fiasco ,when several people wanna to it to reach bigger values.(fiasco because the new price may be already inside the current value,correcting it around more 50 dolars up maybe)

It could go up when the supply from mining is cut by half, it seems kind of likely. But if the market thinks that it will it should have priced most of it in already. It tries its best to be ahead of the curve after all. Or at least that´s the theory.

the market doesn't think that at all (if that is even a thing)
don't just repeat what you have read in an FUD topic without any reasoning. there was the same arguments going on last time for the last halving, they kept saying it is priced in and not gonna go higher, now check out the charts and see how wrong they were.

Well, almost everyone knows that markets try to be ahead of the curve. They try to price in anticipated events before they take place. That´s why they´re called markets - I guess.

Markets are interdependent, but bitcoin doesn't have much impact with the market scenario. It has continued growing even at the worse time of world markets and oil markets.

It trades on a market so I don´t understand what you mean by it not having much impact on a market scenario. This market works like any other market, its participants try to anticipate the future, where the price will be in the future.
It´s extremely elementary.

Well at crypto world nothing is secure a safe investment,even knowing this event should and must affect the price if hasnt yet made it ,but we see bitcoin already testing new values.

people always be talking about Block reward halving and some people said prices will increase after that and some people again said the prices will down and i don't know Which one will right but my hope is Block reward halving will be good for bitcoin and bitcoin users

We should trust those elders here who says that there will be an increase after the halving..I too have the same feeling of being confused, but if we do the math, the supply of fresh coins after the halving would only be half which I think could make the price increase...But of course we could not just under estimate the amount of coins which will be dumped by those who are holding now..

i would assume the price will go up due to the decrease of btc supply while the demand is higher. The price stay 420+ even when there are altcoins going stronger everyday. those altcoins still are being converted into btc and so btc will still circulate with more users after halving... miners however would have to rethink of thier business. less miners will still make btc price go up.

The bitcoin price will in the $600 to $900 range during the halving period. The year end price could be higher.

As mentioned by above mate the year end price will be higher only if the halving gives a peak increase in price. Without that with the technological and gradual increase price can be seen between $500 to $600.

sure? 1.4 milion dollar everyday? never hear this statistic,can you show me some source?
its possible if bitcoin price become double than now,but not sure about that,just guessing from some people.

The average block generation time of a bitcoin block is ten minutes. This block discovery is rewarded with 25 bitcoins. So, you have circa 3600 bitcoins being mined per day, worth about 1.5 million dollars.

The block generation time decreases if more hash is added and vice versa. This reverts back to ten minutes every 2016 blocks mined, by an adjustment of the difficulty.

So, you have a fixed amount of bitcoins being mined per day. This fluctuates a little between these difficulty adjustments which take place every 2016 blocks (12-14 days) and evens out at just about 3600 bitcoins per day.

This all changes, when the block reward is no longer 25 bitcoins lol. in a couple months.

If its halved, then its 12 something in decimals, which makes it people go frenzy. The true question is, what happens when we hit the 210,000,000 mark hard code.

when does the block halving start? Is it even profitable to mine btc anymore at all?

The halving occurs at block 420,000. Look here: http://bitcoinclock.com/

At that point, only the most efficient miners will be able to continue mining profitably. Regardless, some portion of miners will continue to mine at a loss.

Well, yeah the amount mined per day will be cut by half in a few months as we know. So it will go from ca. 3600 to ca. 1800 bitcoins. How this will affect the price is difficult to say. As for mining; I guess plenty of mining gear will be turned off instantly. Probably to be replaced with much more advanced equipment, I´m not so familiar with how that is going. It´ll be a radical change, total hash rate has ballooned dramatically since last fall, miners have obviously been trying their best to make the most before the halving.

Dude if you were CERTAIN that the halving would bring a price increase, wouldn't you bet absolutely everything you had on it?  I don't think people who say the halving is going to spike the price are doing that.  I don't know that for sure, but my guess is it's a bit of a bluff.

Total hash power has gone up by a whopping 175% in the last six months. Those are some massive investments. I wonder how much 800 million GH/s costs. Presently there´s almost 1.3 billion GH/s chasing that fixed daily amount of bitcoins. What will happen when that catch get cut by half overnight? Will much of it simply go belly up or will the price of bitcoin rise to keep most of this mass in the money and therefore mining? After all the blockchain is the foundation of bitcoin and I guess it requires some major mining ongoing on a regular basis to function properly.

Some of the home miners will stop mining but if they treat it as a hobby, they will keep on mining.

You never know what the halving will bring around this time, as you can see you see that the value is not even rising and that halving is also coming so that is bad.
I also dont even think that the value will be that more after the halving.

The truth is no one really knows what will happen. Everyone is throwing out wild guesses about what the price of Bitcoin will be after the halving but the general expectation is that the price would rise. I have seen people claiming the price will crash but to me they sound like alt coin hoarders probably having  invested a lot in Ethereum and want to undermine Bitcoin. The logical outcome would be an increase in value however I am not 100% sure to put my house on the line.

I am fairly certain that the halving will reduce the issurance of new coins. So when the halving comes, the price could rise.

It also depends on the demand of the bitcoin. The Ethereum has good demand for it to be used in the DAO.

There could be other applications based on the Etehreum. One example is Augur, the prediction tool.

i agree with you but it could also spread a little as you can also see since the DAO Attack. Since then the ETH is a little more under the rate to the BTC actually.

It is possible for the price to reach $900 after halving. But more realistically, the price will be around $800.