Bitcoin Forum

This is to continue the thread after the similar one got locked down.

This is about speculation on Silver prices and discuss technical analysis and fundamentals.

I have made my bet official. Silver will move below 10 USD at least intraday before Dec 31, 2016

As I could not find a reliable link for physical Silver prices, I use paper prices. If someone can help me out with physical silver prices, I will add another bet as promised for physical Silver prices.

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1044 (http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1044)

For anyone interested there's a silver investment report for sale for those who many not have studied Silver intently but are curious about investing
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=133066.0

Very possible silver could move to $10 before 2016; but it is also quite likely for it to rise higher than it is now

You probably shift bet deadline more far from event deadline - e.g. to summer 2016. Otherwise it is not intersting to bet. In Dec 2016 the result of this bet would be obvious.

aren't the odds different the closer it gets to the event deadline? but you may be right. I am not so familiar with this site.

Not even sure if I can change the bet deadline now any more?

Too bad we can only assume smoothie won't take the other side based on the hissy fit he threw right before he locked the other thread.

"I'm right, you're wrong, and you're not allowed to respond.  Also you're trying to back out, not me."  Lol.

you are so right. but on the other hand, one person already bet 1 BTC against me in the bet, so its up and running..

Others are invite to join :-)

Such a big difference between paper and physical silver.  Paper silver, yes... it will become worthless when the stock-market crashes. Physical silver @ $10 is laughable. If you are actually suggesting the physical silver will be at $10 US an oz, you are ignorant or just trolling.

not trolling. I like challenging bets. Silver may go down to 3-4 $ and I don't find it impossible to suggest that physical silver will be worth 2.5 - 3.3 x more during that time.
Anyway, I agree that it is borderline, but as I said, this is a challenging bet and I would not bet the farm on it.
And in any case, I am short Silver since the 34 $ area (as per subscriber newsletter) and will not mind it the crash stops above 10 $ even for paper silver. this will still be a trade of the century

How about:
http://www.apmex.com/Product/156/default.aspx (http://www.apmex.com/Product/156/default.aspx)
?

edit: 3 years, 11 months is a way too long wait. I would bet in a shorter term, 8 months max.

OP back pedals on the state of the USD by the end of the bet being in tact. He weaseled his way out of the bet by saying if the USD dies or changes im backing then the bet is invalid. I call that bullshit. You can't make a prediction that assumes the USD will exists as it does today and invlidate the bet if the dollar dies.

Physical silver prices should be the cost of 1 silver American eagle coin at ampex, Gainesville, and providence metals without shipping cost. This also means that said bettor will have to buy 1 oz at least of the American silver eagle coin and have it delivered to them and they have to show proof from the dealer that they bought the coin at less than 10 USD.

To confirm a third party can do the purchase with $10uSD escrowed funds.

OP do you accept or are you going to back pedal again?

A few nice charts to make up your mind  ;D:

http://goldsilverworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/silver_price_trendline_2000-2012.gif

http://sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/freelongtermCPIAG1700log.php

http://goldsilverworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/cpi_inflation_adjusted_silver_price_200_years_1800-2012.gif

http://goldsilverworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/gold_silver_ratio_very_long_term_1344-2012.gif

http://www.kitco.com/hist_charts/3650d_sm_gold_silver_ratio.gif

http://sharelynx.com/chartstemp/charts5/bubblecom08comp.php

http://goldsilverworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/monetary_base_M0_vs_gold_price_1940-2012.gif

http://goldsilverworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/US_dollar_purchasing_power_vs_gold_1774-2012.gif

http://goldsilverworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/US_national_debts_since_1940_presidents_accountable.gif

Generic rounds should be used as SAEs generally have a premium attached to them.

That said this is a poor bet for the OP even if this adjustment is made. Paper silver is a favorite whipping boy of banksters because they don't hold it. This has allowed them to naked short sell(counterfeit) unlimited quantities of paper silver in the past. This time is drawing to a close however as more and more people have become aware of this obvious manipulation and have taken the contrarian approach and buy on dips.

Then there's the problem with the implied gold to silver ratio if silver(real or counterfeit) returns to $10/Ozt. That would imply a GSR of 165.84, when the current is 55.61 and historical ratio is closer to 15:1. Unless of course gold is expected to give back all of it's bull run gains as well. What do we all think? $556.13/Ozt of gold anytime soon? Note the same banksters own huge piles of the yellow stuff.

bravo conspirosphere.tk

smoothie takes trolling to levels never before seen:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=131984.msg1420130#msg1420130

Cypher and notme,

I am still waiting for you guys to bet. All I see are amateur attempts to distract from the point at hand. Are you both pussies? Lol

Scared? Let's bet. Put your money where your mouth is. Attempting to troll me does little to affect me.

Also locking the thread was because S3XXX refused to answer a legitimate question then when he finally did he backpedaled like a pussy.

 ;D

Hey NOTME,


If you read this thread you would see my bet and terms with the OP. the bet he listed does not define physical silver prices. I have suggested an option. Being how stupid you are you couldnt see that I've made an offer. Paper silver prices mean nothing to me.

Of course to you, OP, and  cypher-pussy it means everything.


Your precious paper prices. Stocks and other bullshit.  ;D

agree. itis fun to watch someone getting so agitated...
I need to sleep and work sometime and that is why I cannot post one second after every smoothie question..

so, smoothie.

why don't you propose your terms of the bet. I am confused with what you are saying.

how much do you want to put in?
what are the conditions?

Bet: Physical Silver price defined by averaging the price of any 20 generic/govt (they have to be different coin/bar designs) 1 oz 999 silver fine coins or bars on APMEX, Gainesville, or Providence Metals will not go below $10 USD by Dec 31st, 2016 (as it exists today with BS govt backing).

If the price of silver goes below $10 USD for the average price of ANY 20 generic/govt 1 oz 999 silver fine coins or bars on APMEX, Gainesville, or Providence Metals by Dec 31, 2016, YOU WIN.

If it doesn't, I WIN.

If the USD changes in backing or does not exist as it does today (meaning all USD is now backed partially by gold or some other hard asset or another US currency is created or if the USD is modified by chopping off zeros on the bills (LOL)), I WIN.

The average price MUST be calculated with 20 unique designed 1 oz silver 999 fine bars or silver 999 fine coins from those sites. So if intraday your paper price goes to < 10 USD and you can't average with 20 unique silver items THAT ARE AVAILABLE FOR PURCHASE on those times combined sites, the price doesn't count.

Bet amount: 100 BTC

Let me know if you want to change anything, then I can decide if I want to accept your terms.

What is funny is how you did not answer the question after at least a day and a half as I continually asked you to define "physical silver price". You did not think that I would catch that or the fact that the USD might not exist in 4 years eh? ROFL!  ;D ;D ;D

no, I just wanted help to define the physical Silver price.

I am fine with the bet, except the point on the USD currency change / default, because I think this is very likely.

There are two options.
1) reduce the bet to 10 BTC and I go with your conditions
2) keep 100 BTC but remove the currency risk. If the USD changes in backing or does not exist as it does today (meaning all USD is now backed partially by gold or some other hard asset or another US currency is created or if the USD is modified by chopping off zeros on the bills (LOL)) NOONE WINS.

I vote for #2. high stakes bitches. high stakes

Can I escrow? ;)

Since you insist on finally admitting that the USD will likely fail (despite your prediction initially, which I commend you for), let's just go with #1.

Deal?

Were did he ever say the USD would not fail?  His prediction was about silver, you pulled in the BS about the USD.

the whole bet is silver in relation to USD. if usd disappears by 2016 bet should be void; but not anymore

Right.  S3052 was generous to accept that condition.

If we bet which of two trees would be taller in a year, and some third party came and replaced one tree with a different tree most people would call off the bet, not give it to the person who bet against the tree that was removed.

I am fine with option 1 as I said. Still, it is a bit unfair that in the event of an USD failure the bet goes to you, but anyway, lets go ahead.
I will add this bet on betsofbitcoin in the next 1-2 days

P.S. And to clarify: I never indicated that I did not forecast the USD fail. In fact, it is the opposite. I expect this very strongly since years.

Saying you believe that silver will hit less that 10 USD in four years implies you believe the USD will exist in 4 years. Got it? Or you going to back out of that implication too? LOL.


"I bet something, but I don't really believe it." ~S3052

LOL  ;D ;D ;D

do we have a bet or not? I thought we agreed on option 1

He's more interested in running his mouth than putting his money up.

I already agreed. Keep up and pay attention. okay? Thanks lol  :D :D :D

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:


LOL!

Wheres the money going? just another betsofbitco.in that everyone else can jump in on?

I'm starting to wonder if betsofbitcoin will be around in 4 years. Something tells me they won't.

they've been around a year and a half. gotta believe they making some money they don't want to lose.

Domain expires 04-Aug-2013

watch them renew for at least 2 years before that ;)

I just bought a kilo of junk silver coins and will buy moar in case of further dumps.
So much for my bet.

That's awesome. I'm only buying bullion govt coins.