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Happy new year!

Troll much?  :D

Happy New Year!

Want to bet? I predict at least one of BFL, bASIC, Avalon or ASICMINER will deliver a product in January (In ASICMINER's case, this means running devices on behalf of shareholders)

Please don't link a betsofbitco.in bet, I want locked in odds.

Make an offer then.

Wow, ElectricMucus is changing his mind on ASICs!

He previously said (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=92268.0) that the whole BFL ASIC project was bogus (back when BFL was the only vendor to have announced ASICs.) But now he seems to believe *someone* will ship ASICs eventually, just not in January. I am glad you are finally able to think rationally  ;)

Even odds, up to 100BTC, trusted escrow.

For BFL, bASIC and Avalon, I win if an end customer receives a product on or before Jan. 31.
For ASICMINER, I win if some or all of their initial production batch begins hashing for shareholders on or before Jan. 31.
Pre-production or sample units hashing do not count as a win for me.

I'm not very familiar with ASICMINER's plans, so I welcome clarifications.

You are desperately trying to twist the meaning of my post, don't try again. I said they will, fail on spec and don't deliver on time. I was right on the latter.
Bogus enough for me. I never said they wouldn't deliver anything (although that is entirely possible)


@dust problem, I don't have 100BTC...

100BTC is my maximum, I am willing to bet less.

Well I have like 1BTC atm.

Sorry, that was just too good a trolling opportunity to miss up.

Being late hardly qualifies as being "bogus". This is simply incompetence in planning timelines (hardly surprising from BFL, hence why I gave my bet a deadline of June 30, 2013).

You say I twist your words, but you words are vague. You keep saying "fail on spec". But technically this means you believe BFL could release an ASIC achieving 999 Mhash/Joule (barely "failing" their estimated 1000 Mhash/Joule). So, I would like to hear from you a Mhash/Joule number that you are ready to bet on.

Efficiency it's all that matters, at the time I was posting that thread it was common consensus amount BFL supporters that not only they will have their devices significantly before the reward halfing but also that they will be the most powerful and cost effective solution by a long shot.
Most people pre-ordered from BFL with that approach and, alone from the failure to enable ASIC mining before the block reward reduction BFL qualifies as "Bogus". They ordered from BFL because they thought they gonna mine with ASICs before the block reward reduction and even calculated their budget and finances accordingly.

I dare you to find any post where I specifically state that BFL isn't going to deliver any product at all for certain. What is certain is that they are BOGUS in terms of made-to-believe efficiency and ROI.

So please, set an exact Mhash/Joule number below which you would consider BFL as "failing to deliver".

Would they fail if they deliver 999 Mhash/Joule? 700 Mhash/Joule? 500 Mhash/Joule? 350 Mhash/Joule?

(Mhash/Joule is the same as Mhash/s/Watt if this confuses you.)

They themselves have stated 10% margin that's what it is. I am certain they will fail to deliver that since it is in their business model to exaggerate. (The stated 1GH/J so that'll be below 909.09MH/J)

I think it is probable that they vastly under-deliver, in excess of 50% but not certain.
But this thread is not about that topic, it is about shipping dates which are more of an immediate concern.

Well my personal estimate is that they will do around 700 Mhash/Joule. So it looks like you don't disagree with me so much after all.

In any way, even if they achieved 700 Mhash/Joule, and do it late, this does not warrant you criticizing them as "bogus". 30% below expectation wouldn't be the end of the world. You and I have a different definition of this word.

Everyone is a scam, but bASICs are a biggest scam and a liars! They even does not send the money back, if your order is canceled. So Butterflies are not the worst company.

How's this ElectricMucus: If we do ship before January ends, you send the entire Avalon team cookies, the soft kind, not too sweet made with coarse grains to provide texture. The conventional chocolate-chip ones are good too but the molasses and ginger chews are especially delicious with fresh cinnamon.

If not, you send him a rig. How's that? Then this bet will start to get serious ;)

Dude what the hell are you talking about? Ask for refund and you will get it.

I already did. If they still alive, then they are liars.

If you guys go through with the bet I'll offer my services as an escrow agent.

If I buy a CPU I get a certain amount of cores which will run on a certain frequency. The same goes for graphic cards and any other microelectronics device. Companies deliver expected performance withing a very thin margin. Except for BFL It's their company policy to exaggerate their specs and yes we really seem to agree on that.

Anyway: They this thread is about the January shipping schedule of all ASIC sellers which I say they will not meet.

they are bordering on the chinese holiday season. one might not see this stuff until march. it is pretty easy to see this happening.

If you're in reference to the FAB, Josh is already on record in stating that it's not located in China, and that the Chinese New Year is not a concern for delivery of chips.

~Bruno K~

I wonder if he knows the Chinese New Year is not only a big deal in China.

I think that you guys have bad taste in cookies, but that's probably just because I'm not a fan of ginger.

I've not paid a huge amount of attention or put much research into things, but I think I recall you folks having some interest in open-source, at least relative to your 'competition'(*).  If so, and if you live up to the opens-source principle to reasonable degree, I'll either make a donation (and I'm sure you can find some oven-hot chocolate-chip cookies which you are welcome to use the BTC for), or potentially even buy some of your wares.

* I am currently of the opinion that most probably pretty much every one of the more widely advertised ASIC efforts is a straight-up scam except, potentially, Avalon.  But this is no more than a gut feeling from someone who pays relatively little attention except to read some of the posts on this board...and has only the most rudimentary and dated experience with hardware.  Anyway, if my gut sense turns out to be correct, it is not really fair to classify BFL (for instance) and Avalon as 'competition'.

China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc... Nicely played. All celebrate this multi week holiday. Wherever there is a significant Chinese
presence. And just because THEIR fab does not have workers who enjoy the holiday, perhaps, what they require to do their work could be
delayed which more then likely comes from China or some other area affected by the holiday.

Still.. with no demo being shown yet... guessing march seems very very reasonable. Jan, actually get some parts, Feb start building,
March actually have something to show.

There was plenty of people who know based on their past history that nothing was going to show up until after Jan if not longer.
By then I will have already placed an order with avalon i imagine since they seem to be able to present a demo first based on rumors.

Josh has already said that anything which was sourced from places which would be affected by CNY they already have in hand.  He seems confident that the fab itself won't be affected by the holiday but that might be naivete on his part as even businesses which don't officially close often still have extremely reduced capacity as many workers head home for the holidays (with or without permission) and many employment contracts end around that time of year.

I seriously doubt their ability to ship in January if they don't have the packaged chips in hand within the next 10 days because, as Josh is so fond of pointing out in respect of his competitors, there's still a lot which can go wrong after the foundry finishes producing the chips.

It could also mean a higher workload (and more contention) for the fab, if it's still operating while the others are closed.



Even when they have the packaged chips in hand, the multi-million dollar question is still whether they'll work acceptably well or not.

Until BFL advises upgrade customers to start returning their FPGAs, BFL ASIC shipment isn't imminent no matter what target dates they have.

+1000

And to that point, has there been any discussion on that process?  A quick search lead me to nothing...

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/606-shipping-back-fpgas.html

^^ Thanks for that!!

+1

Why do these threads always have trolls ...."BFL suck", "bASIC are liars"...etc. Whatever happen to serious and helpful posts?

Who said we weren't serious and helpful?

Okay just for you: RAINBOWS, UNICORNS, FLOWERS, CAREBEARS, CHOCOLATE, LOVE.

That make you feel better? :D

This thread is not about flowers and carebears. You troll.  :P

Why would people make serious and helpful posts in a thread which was clearly intended to be neither?

Pretty much everything serious and helpful which can be said about ASICs has already been said at this point.  People are just posting for the sake of hearing their own voices for the most part and that's likely to get worse if BFL doesn't advise people to start returning their FPGAs within the next few days (because if they don't, then they won't be shipping mid-January and people are over them announcing delays at the last moment).

 :-*