Bitcoin Forum

Just some random thought I had...

Tough question.

The main value of Bitcoin, is as a means of getting other currencies behind Capital Controls easily into USD....but if USD crashed, would holders of USD flock to Bitcoin in order to get exposure to CNY, or Euro?

Under such circumstances, we could expect too see massive commodity (and hence massive price) inflation. That would be the true test of whether Bitcoin is a commodity or a currency (I think it is neither).

Hmm... yeah but wouldn't the price of bitcoin in USD be almost infinite if the dollar plummets to zero?

it will be simply be evaluated with the second stronger currency in fiat, so euro or cny, if every major fiat crashes that would be a major thing to think about

the only possibility would be barter at that point...

It could go either way (sort of dependent on people choices to invest in it or to go with something else). If they all suddenly switched to BTCitcoin then the price will get pumped a lot but don't expect it to last that way as it gets settled after some time and goes back to the real range eventually (but will have a higher base as opposed to the initial value before the crash).

Wouldn't a USD-holder wanting CNY or EUR exposure simply exchange their USD for CNY or EUR? Why would they go via BTC?

That'ts my point. If bitcoin remains intact after the collapse, hyper-inflation would be caused by anyone wanting to convert BTC to USD.

Yep...U are absolutely correct.

Only in circumstances where their are barriers to exchanging currencies i.e. CNY - USD, is Bitcoin useful as a means of Capital Flight....

But ya know what....with the negative interest rates around the world, and the Fed actually raising their rates ever so slightly, which will result in the US stock market retreating, which generally means stocks around the globe go into retreat, and then of course with the huge problems China is facing....

....I suspect we are going to have a strong USD policy going forward, aiding and abetting the global economic recession, and offering itself and US government bonds as thee go to safe haven asset. This will be good for Bitcoin. With that said, all the Chinese government have to do one day is turn around and say, "right, too much CNY going into BTC and coming out as USD" BTC is banned!" Then Bitcoin would be well and truly fkd.

Bitcoin = ultimate gravy train asset. We all seen blistering gains in the past and all suspect that there will be blistering gains in the future. But I think all but the most naive realise what a tightrope walk Bitcoin as an investment is, and speaking for myself, I fully expect one day for Bitcoin to implode, and for something else, something better designed, something which has learned from Bitcoin's shortfalls, and most likely something created by The Man, for The Man, to move into it's space.

I expect one day, to wake up to some wikileak document indicating that Bitcoin was an NSA pilot project all along.

BTC goes up

That is correct. If dollar crashes there will be always some alternative currency eagerly waiting to take the place of the former hegemon.
So after the stir and crisis is gone we will see Euro or Pound as next global currency and bitcoin price will be measured mainly by these.
Will BTC go up? It is a hard question, in the initial phase probably not, but later after the crisis probably yes.

Sure, I also have more confidence in the US economy in the short term than the OP's (hypothetical) scenario. But we're straying off-topic. I do agree with you about the likelihood of carry trade towards USD developing - kinda the reverse of the JPY carry trade during the 90s and early 00s. I was more curious why you thought the OP's scenario would result in USD -> BTC -> X exchanges.

There are times that China made the bitcoin price soar when the Yuan is down. I cannot say the same though if it's the US Dollar as I'm not sure if US population in general has more bitcoin awareness than the Chinese population in terms of percentage.

Presumably you mean a solely USD crash? [Edit: sorry, obviously you mean that - because that's what you said!] Because I'm not seeing that have that much of an impact on BTC. Sure, BTC would stutter just the same as everything else if the USD went down the pan (moreso than, say, the AUD or CAD collapsing), but I'm not getting the hyper-inflation bit. Sure, BTC would be worth a shed-load of USD - but we'd all be valuing BTC in more relevant currencies. It'd suck to be in the US and stuck with USD, but the rest of the world would presumably muddle on. I don't see the BTC economy suddenly mimicking Weimar Germany.

And, in this scenario, why would anyone want to convert BTC to USD? What would BTC have that other currencies wouldn't have? Why would BTC holders suddenly want USD when holders of every other currency are ditching the USD like it's the plague?

Probably the Bitcoin price would go up, same happened when the  chinese Yuan value dropped

Same for me here, Americans will find a way to transact to others financially and the only way for them to do such is with cryptocurrency and bitcoin is the biggest there is.

No.

USD is Safe Haven, not BTC.

When CNY devalues, CNY runs to BTC, and then ultimately to USD.

BTC is not a safe haven. It is a conduit and a conduit that only makes sense in one direction. If USD goes down, nobody is going to be running into the CNY, or the EUR, cos by definition, they will be going down as well.

When/if USD goes down, safe haven will be commodities, gold, silver, etc.

According to me nothing. Bitcoin is not dependent from the us dollar. It is true that the us dollar is the main currency to which is given its value (price) but in the same time is given its value even in other currencies (euro, Australian dollar, British pound, Chinese yuan and other currencies). Normally it is  given in us dollar because the us dollar is the most important currency in the world, is the preferred one used internationally and the preferred one used at the international commerce. But if we will go at China no one give the price of bitcoin with us dollar before the price of it with yuan. The same even at Great Britain or Australia, Canada etc. So if crashed the us dollar will be crashed only the us dollar. The other currencies (including bitcoin) may suffer its crash but after a few time everything will have its real market value.  

At first I'd be really happy as it allows me yo buy much cheaper coins with my euro.

For bitcoin to get pegged to another currency, USD needs to significantly crash. A 50% drop would likely not even have that result.

bitcoin would surely get more popular and people would start buying it a lot as fiat would be worthless

fiat money= safe haven? do not compute at all

i can agree on gold, but fiat is bound to collapse eventually and not for bitcoin, but for their own rotten system

to give you honest answer will be dont know if dollar can collapse or even crashes but in this world anything is possible will this influence the price i dont think it will be hard cuz it not just dollar here we have euro, GBP and local btc exchanges with there country currency so really tough question to ask.

I do think that Bitcoin is going to grow enormously and it is much more popular. I also think that more people should know what Bitcoin is and what it does.
Many people know that does not and that is unfortunate. If they know what it is they will use it too.