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Title: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on February 01, 2016, 11:10:41 PM THE OPEN-AUDIT INITIATIVE: 2016 US ELECTION PREDICTION MARKET PROJECT
This Horizon project consists of a slew of prediction-market Assets that shadow PredictWise (http://predictwise.com/politics/)'s price data. This project is experimental. The owner of PredictWise (http://predictwise.com/) has kindly let me have access to APIs that will provide the numbers for the tradebot that will keep these Assets in line with his derived market-price data. Just to let you know, this project is started and run by yours truly, who is solely responsible for it. Neither PredictWise not the Horizon dev team is associated with it, except as independent supplier of data and independent supplier of the 2nd-gen cryptocurrency platform. The responsibility for this project is all on my shoulders. "Hello World!" Welcome to the first iteration, the "Hello World" if you will, of an initiative I call Open Auditing. Each of the Assets listed below in this post contain instructions on how to audit my pricing claims. Also below is step-by-step detailed instructions for any Assets you wish to audit. for a post of part of the audit instructions. Since the Horizon Asset system only allows for 1000 characters, and the full instructions clocked in at ~1600 characters, I had to post Part 2 of the instructions here. It's in the post just below this one. YOU CAN AUDIT ANY ONE OF THESE ASSETS CONVENIENTLY by using a special Horizon demo account. It holds ten of each contract. Using the tables below, you can find the one(s) you want to price-check. The Account ID is NHZ-R66W-847L-MTQR-5CSH5 Just copy and paste this exact ID into your Horizon wallet. If you don't have one, feel free to use this Web wallet (https://horizonfuture.com/wallet/index.html). After copying and pasting the Account ID, your login box should look like this: Feel free to click "Remember Account." :) If you trust me, you can use this direct link to NHZ-R66W-847L-MTQR-5CSH5 (https://horizonfuture.com/wallet/index.html?account=NHZ-R66W-847L-MTQR-5CSH5). If you don't trust me - perhaps you shouldn't - you can download your own independent full-node Horizon wallet here (https://horizonplatform.io/#walletdownloads). Please check your download against one of the checksums provided to make sure you've got the right .zip file. You can download a checksum checker here (http://www.bitser.org/download_zip.shtml). One you've got it installed, click the "Manage" button and the "Open File" icon on the top left of the Manage page. Load the Horizon wallet into it. Then, press the "Archive Information" icon - it's third to the right - and then press the "Checksums" button. The checksum you get should match the one for your full-node wallet on the official download page (https://horizonplatform.io/#walletdownloads). This guide in the official Horizon announcement thread tells you how to set up your new node (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=823785.msg14022494#msg14022494). Once you've got your wallet set up, or the direct link to my Web wallet (https://horizonfuture.com/wallet/index.html?account=NHZ-R66W-847L-MTQR-5CSH5) opened up, click the "Asset Exchange" button on the left. It looks like this: If you're using my Web wallet link to account NHZ-R66W-847L-MTQR-5CSH5 (https://horizonfuture.com/wallet/index.html?account=NHZ-R66W-847L-MTQR-5CSH5), you'll see the Assets already loaded in a list just to the right of the blue buttons. If you're using your own node, you'll have to add them yourself by clicking the Add Asset button in the upper right of the page and entering the Asset ID number. The list of contracts just below has the ID number for each of them. If you are DIYing with your own wallet, you can fill up your Asset Exchange bookmarks by clicking the above-mentioned Add Asset button... ...entering the Asset ID number in the form that pops up... ...and clicking the Add Asset button on the form. You'll see it added to your Asset Exchange bookmarks. As you'll soon find out, the above Asset ID corresponds to the contract, "Will the winner of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election be a Democrat?" Click here to get the contract lists (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019253#msg14019253)! Title: Re: [HZ] [PRE-ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on February 01, 2016, 11:27:37 PM PLEASE COMPLETE THE STEPS TO OPEN-AUDIT (1) AND LEAVE OPEN THE PREDICTWISE PAGE YOU USED. YOU'LL FIND THE ASSET'S NAME AT THE TOP-LEFT OF ITS PAGE IN THE HORIZON WALLET.
HOW TO OPEN-AUDIT (2) --> STEP ONE: Subtract 1 from the number in your calculator, or divide by 2 if your number's < 1. STEP TWO: Look in Buy Orders for Asset Issuer's bid to see if the Price numbers match. STEP 3: Click Asset Issuer; you'll see a ledger for Nxtblg Main HZ Wallet. STEP 4: Click "Assets" and look in the ledger for the Asset's Name. To the right of the Asset Name, you'll see a Quantity. STEP 5: Clear your calculator and enter in 10000 . This number is the Total Available of the Asset. STEP 6: Subtract the Quantity you found - the amount of it held by Nxtblg Main HZ Wallet - from the 10000. STEP 7: Close the ledger, look back at the Buy Orders (the buybook) to see if your subtraction matches the buybook's Asset Issuer Quantity. Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on February 26, 2016, 05:41:27 PM PREDICTION-MARKET PROJECT: THE CONTRACTS
WHICH PARTY WILL WIN THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
HOW TO AUDIT: CLICK HERE (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019288#msg14019288) WHICH INDIVIDUAL WILL WIN THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? PRESIDENTIAL CANDIATES ACTIVELY CAMPAIGNING:
HOW TO AUDIT: CLICK HERE (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019351#msg14019351) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIATES CAMPAIGN SUSPENDED:
POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIATES, NOT DECLARED (YET):
POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIATES REFUSING TO RUN:
HOW TO AUDIT: CLICK HERE (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019351#msg14019351) WHICH INDIVIDUAL WILL WIN THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL REPUBLICAN NOMINATION? REPUBLICAN CANDIATES ACTIVELY CAMPAIGNING:
HOW TO AUDIT: CLICK HERE (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019407#msg14019407) REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES CAMPAIGN SUSPENDED:
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES, NOT DECLARED (YET):
HOW TO AUDIT: CLICK HERE (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019407#msg14019407) WHICH INDIVIDUAL WILL WIN THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION? DEMOCRATIC CANDIATES ACTIVELY CAMPAIGNING:
DEMOCRATIC CANDIATES CAMPAIGN SUSPENDED:
HOW TO AUDIT: CLICK HERE (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019455#msg14019455) THANKS FOR CHECKING OUT THE OPEN-AUDIT PREDICTION MARKET SHADOWING PROJECT! Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on February 26, 2016, 05:45:18 PM HOW TO AUDIT THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENCY WINNER - PARTY - CONTRACTS
If one of these numbers doesn't check out, please let me know in this thread. Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on February 26, 2016, 05:51:14 PM HOW TO AUDIT THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENCY WINNER - INDIVIDUAL - CONTRACTS
If one of these numbers doesn't check out, please let me know in this thread. Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on February 26, 2016, 05:57:11 PM HOW TO AUDIT THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENCY REPUBLICAN NOMINATION CONTRACTS
If one of these numbers doesn't check out, please let me know in this thread. Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on February 26, 2016, 06:00:56 PM HOW TO AUDIT THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENCY DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION CONTRACTS :
If one of these numbers doesn't check out, please let me know in this thread. Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: mike34 on February 27, 2016, 09:05:02 PM had a look at this great interesting work as usual from you I really do have to find the time to learn more about all the things that horizon can do
And all the things you have set up for it. :) Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on February 27, 2016, 09:37:54 PM had a look at this great interesting work as usual from you I really do have to find the time to learn more about all the things that horizon can do And all the things you have set up for it. :) Thanks a lot! It'll be a lot of fun - and as Ben Franklin was reputed to say, "What use is a newborn baby?" I'm very glad you like "baby"! Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] Mike Bloomberg May Be In The Race Next Week Post by: Nxtblg on February 29, 2016, 06:26:30 PM HEADS UP, EVERYONE: In the "Which Individual Will Win The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election?" category of the contracts list (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019253#msg14019253), Michael Bloomberg appears in the "Not Declared Yet" category:
POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIATES, NOT DECLARED (YET):
[etc] Just now, I can across this new item claiming that Michael Bloomberg is going to announce (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/bloomberg-to-announce-us-presidential-run/527403) that he's running. Quote from: Andolou Agency Michael Bloomberg is planning a run for the U.S. presidency that would begin as early as next week. A source with knowledge of company affairs at Bloomberg L.P., told Anadolu Agency that said senior officials at offices worldwide were clearing schedules for meetings to discuss a sudden change in the management structure at the company. The source, who spoke to AA on condition of anonymity, was not authorized to discuss company matters on the record. The multibillionaire owner of Bloomberg L.P. is preparing to hand over his responsibilities at the financial data and media company ahead of an announcement after Super Tuesday on March 1, a key date in the nomination process for the Republican and Democratic parties. Bloomberg was planning to make his announcement on or after Super Tuesday, the source said. Bloomberg, who distanced himself from his company in a similar fashion when he was elected mayor of New York City, has been rumored to be planning an independent presidential campaign for months.... Interestingly, the contracts have hardly budged. PrzBlooYES, ID 10356649501873299324 , moved up only slightly from 1.2; it's now stuck at 1.4 HZ. This matches PredictWise's derived market price of $0.014 in Mr. Bloomberg's entry for "2016 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)". It's in the middle of the 2016 President Winner (http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner) page. Don't believe my numbers? Audit It! (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019351#msg14019351) If the above speculation turns into a definitive announcement, I'll move both YES and NO contracts for Mike Bloomberg into the "Presidential Candidates Actively Campaigning" list. The race will get really interesting if Mr. Bloomberg does declare. Word is, he's getting in the race in part because he "expressed frustration about how the present presidential campaign is dominated by populist figures such as Donald Trump for the Republicans and the Democrats Bernie Sanders." Mr. Bloomberg is much richer than Donald Trump. If he follows through, we'll see a real "Battle of the Billionaires" this year. And it's going to be a battle, all right! Just look at the reactions on this thread (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3403274/posts) at the premiere rightwing forum Free Republic! Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on March 02, 2016, 08:14:53 PM Ben Carson just suspended his campaign (http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/02/dr-ben-carson-suspends-campaign/), so I've moved his contracts to the respective "Campaign Suspended" categories. He fought the good fight, all right, but his fighting days are now suspended.
You'll see the change in the above list (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019253#msg14019253). Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on March 05, 2016, 01:31:36 AM ANOTHER HEADS UP, EVERYONE: Because the prediction markets are now buzzing about the possibility of a brokered Republican convention, PredictWise has added two new long-shot candidates in the "2016 President Republican Nomination (http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination)" list.
These two names are pols who have not declared, at least not yet, but are rumoured to have a longshot shot at getting the nom as a compromise candidate. The new long-shot contendas are Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. Accordingly, I've created four new Assets and have added them to the "Which Individual Will Win The 2016 U.S. Presidential Republican Nomination?" category of the contracts list (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019253#msg14019253). Both of them appear in the new "Not Declared Yet" subcategory: POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES, NOT DECLARED (YET):
As I indicated above, repeatedly, ;) the Yes contracts for each are real long-shots. As I write this, RNmRomnYES - ID 3831653167151593158 - is only 1.2. RNmRomnYES - ID 12455531451824895642 - is only 1.5. Both match PredictWise's numbers (http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination). Don't believe my numbers? Audit It! (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019351#msg14019351) The fate of these new contracts do hang upon a) a brokered convention in which no-one gets a majority of the delegates; b) one of the two being accepted as a compromise candidate to break a deadlock. Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: altsheets on March 07, 2016, 08:27:34 PM Just noticed a small copy paste error ...
The winner will be a Democrat PrzDemoYES 3564868636547103274 The winner will NOT be a Democrat PrzDemoNO 13462758571964497836 The winner will be a Republican PrzRepuYES 3564868636547103274 The winner will NOT be a Republican PrzRepuNO 13462758571964497836 ... but actually, when I bought the assets last week, my internal error correction unit ... didn't notice. ;) Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on March 07, 2016, 08:37:45 PM Just noticed a small copy paste error ... The winner will be a Democrat PrzDemoYES 3564868636547103274 The winner will NOT be a Democrat PrzDemoNO 13462758571964497836 The winner will be a Republican PrzRepuYES 3564868636547103274 The winner will NOT be a Republican PrzRepuNO 13462758571964497836 ... but actually, when I bought the assets last week, my internal error correction unit ... didn't notice. ;) Thank You!! I just corrected it and another error. Here's the corrected section: Quote WHICH PARTY WILL WIN THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] Mike Bloomberg May Be In The Race Next Week Post by: Nxtblg on March 07, 2016, 10:57:30 PM Just now, I can across this new item claiming that Michael Bloomberg is going to announce (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/bloomberg-to-announce-us-presidential-run/527403) that he's running. This proved to a false lead. Just now, Michael Bloomberg announced that he is not running. Source: New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/08/us/politics/michael-bloomberg-not-running-for-president.html?_r=0). The article says that he feared that his candidacy would only help Donald Trump (which is in line with what the handicappers figured out.) Accordingly, I just put his name in a new category, coloured red like the candidates who have suspended their campaigns, called "POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIATES REFUSING TO RUN". You'll see the change in the contracts list (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019253#msg14019253). Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: pol5 on March 08, 2016, 07:00:02 AM good job . I carefully watch this project. Good luck to you :)
Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on March 08, 2016, 05:00:47 PM good job . I carefully watch this project. Good luck to you :) Thanks a lot! Happy auditing. :) Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on March 16, 2016, 12:29:30 AM This just in: After his loss in Florida, Marco Rubio has suspended his campaign. Source: his speech live on CNN, plushere (http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/03/15/marco-rubio-suspends-campaign-after-losing-florida/). Accordingly, I moved his contracts for both the Republican nomination and the Presidency to the CAMPAIGN SUSPENDED category in each. You'll see the changes in the contracts list (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019253#msg14019253).
Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on May 04, 2016, 12:42:26 AM Just got the "Cruz News." Ted Cruz is suspending his campaign. Source: Politico (http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/ted-cruz-drops-out-of-presidential-race-222763). Accordingly, I moved his contracts for both the Republican nomination and the Presidency to the CAMPAIGN SUSPENDED category in each. You'll see the changes in the contracts list (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019253#msg14019253).
Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on May 04, 2016, 04:26:08 PM John Kasich has just dropped out.. Source: CNBC (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/john-kasich-campaign-latest-news.html). Accordingly, I moved his contracts for both the Republican nomination and the Presidency to the CAMPAIGN SUSPENDED category in each. You'll see the changes in the contracts list (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1349325.msg14019253#msg14019253).
This change leaves only Donald Trump in the Republican Candidates Actively Campaigning category. It also means that Trump is almost certainly going to be the Republican candidate. However, as specified by the contract terms, the payout at 100 will not be made until the Republican convention formally nominates him in Cleveland. Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on July 22, 2016, 08:45:32 PM As you undoubtedly have heard, Donald Trump has officially been nominated and has officially accepted the nomination. So, the first part of the Presidential race is over. Yesterday, I put in buy orders for RNmTrumYES and all RNm...NO contracts except for RNmTrumNO for 100 HZ each; the buys are large enough in volume to cover all the outstanding contracts. The rest, I dropped the bids.
Once the winning contracts are sold into my bids, I'll send the contract Assets to the HZ genesis account and they'll be burned. Congratulations to the winners. It was certainly an unexpected ride! Next week, once the Dem convention is over, I'll do the same for the Democratic Nomination contracts. The winner's YES contract and all the losers' NO contracts will be bought back at 100. Title: Re: [HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project Post by: Nxtblg on July 30, 2016, 07:37:56 PM After the last outraged gasp of the BernieBros, Hillary Clinton has officially been nominated and has officially accepted the Democrat nomination. That means the contestants are set for the general election. I put in buy orders for DNmClinYES and all DNm...NO contracts except for DNmClinNO for 100 HZ each; the buys are large enough in volume to cover all the outstanding contracts. The rest, I dropped the bids. Once the winning contracts are sold into my bids, I'll send the contract Assets to the HZ genesis account and they'll be burned. Congratulations to the winners. This was a fun contest; even Wikileaks saw fit to get involved. :D Once Election Day has come and gone, I'll do the same for the Presidential Election contracts: both individual and party. The winner's YES contract and all the losers' NO contracts will be bought back at 100. |
