Bitcoin Forum

Ok most of the people here were expecting the price to go significantly up after the block halving, now over a month later and the holidays behind us it's still stuck at just $1-2 above what it was before the halving.
Is that all? What do you think?

I thought price would go up a little bit.

It went up a little bit.

Not sure what your point is?

Actually I think most people around here expected the price to stay the same. If you'd asked that question at any point leading up to the halving, you'd see a lot of the same response; "It's already priced in."

Since a lot of people on these forums are speculators, they don't wait until an event happens to make their buy/sell decisions. Look at the price charts going back 6-8 months from the reward halving. Most speculators had come to the conclusion that bitcoin would be worth more in a few months time, so they bought bitcoin back then (while the price was low). Fast forward to now, they were right!

Sometimes it's easy to make these kinds of guesses, but the difficult part is always the "when".

um it already has. The halving is a well known and studied event, it was priced in when the price went from $5 to $10 a few months before the halving.

The current $13 is not due to the halving, but due to the good publicity and confidence generated by Wordpress.com accepting Bitcoins. To go higher, we would
need significant new catalysts, something like "wikipedia/reddit accepts bitcoin", or "50% gambling sites are accepting Bitcoin".

Bitcoin's value can only go higher by having more places accepting it, so go out and promote Bitcoin.

Price already rallied from $5 to $12.

The general answer to the question "When the price is going up as expected" in the free market, is:
It already did.

Actually, "most of us" said reward halving was already priced in.

$20 before this summer  :D

I bought in 2010 because of all of the halvings, so there.

Everyone knew the block reward was being halved...  The market anticipates such things.  See the rise from $6.50-$13 as the doubling people expected.  ;)

+1

Thats why we gave the big buy signal already at around 5 $ last year...

So you don't expect a doubling the next 6 months, since there is no halving?

The doubling was because of increased demand, and that continues. Only if everyone lost half of their coins a "halving" would create a doubling of price.

THIS

Its same as option pricing, option prices dont stay flat until day of expiration and then skyrocket or go to zero on expiration day, they increase/decrease every second of their lifetime.

Perhaps we need a "black&scholes" like, bitcoin pricing calculator ?

I was in camp claiming that it was NOT priced in and that the price would increase.

(My logic was that
* Bitcoin is not just speculators;
* that there is a constantish flow of money going into Bitcoin from people who just discovered it
* and hence COULD not buy in the summer 2012
* and finally that this flow and the shortfall of new coins would push the price up.)

Now I will admit I expected BTC to be easily above 15$ by now but I also knew that it would not be an overnight thing (unless there was some panic buying).

I think there HAS been a strong upwards pressure though - it is a whole 1$ more now than at the end of November and every drop has been quickly reversed since.

I expect continued strong behavior the next few months.

ok what the guys that said the halving was already factored in, say now? when it doubled again? :)
Btw because of that thread i sold 70BTC at $14-15 since you guys kinda convinced me that was it. 2 days after that it skyrocketed again :)
good thing I left the majority in BTC and still holding them.

Don't listen to the tools. Bitcoin is experiencing unprecedented growth!
The halving may have been factored in, but new users w/ the halving clearly was not.

what are you %$^# gonna say now?

this thread has costed me  about $2500......

and you all speak so competent :)