Bitcoin Forum

How far will the price fall when Butterfly Labs stops "customer service" and leaves the country?  Will we see the same magnitude as the Pirate Crash?

I will not be surprised. Classic ponzi with promises.

Please explain why it would crash.

They say BFL owner is criminal in past

Speculators dumped coins when the Pirate scam was confirmed so it seems plausible this might happen when this scam is confirmed.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110868.20
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=114329.0

I want to believe people becomes better. But expirence protests.

Btw, does anyone see any noticeable hashrate growth? I think if anyone would have asic technology in hands, that should have impact on hashrate dramatically.

Speculators dumped because Pirate had a lot of coins to dump. Butterfly labs don't have the coins.

I'd expect something similar then when pirate shut down.

Except I think it should be lower in magnitude in terms of the initial crash but have larger repercussions in terms of mid term price development. If the ASIC startups turn out to be a dud there will be large spread disappointment but the acceptance will be much harder to swallow. So I would expect about half a year downtrend. No idea how steep though it depends so much on other factors.

What do you think will those miners do who still have their coins from back before the big rise and who though they could dominate the game for another 4 years? It's not the speculators you ought to be concerned about.
It's the seemingly strong hand who might get so frustrated that they turn to drastic actions.

So we all playing roulette here :)

I read in midterm TA picture something weird could happen.

If there is no BFL and the other manufactures have more delays, the effect would more likely be that people start cashing out beause difficulty is not rising as fast as expected.

BFl not delivering does not make it a scam. If they default and repay what's left to the investors and preorders, they have only proved themself as bad business men. Maybe the Chinese chip maker has scammed them?

The thing that still not seem right about BFl is the total lack of crowd sharing of their firmware programming effort. If there had been a subforum where people discussed improvements with code snippets, it would have been just as tangible as a working prototype early on.

Avalon openly discuss the intricate part of their firmware efforts and discussing different methods of improving their algorithms.

BFL have not proven they have the brain power to make the butterfly ASIC take off. Sure they had delivered FPGAs, but thats a walk in the park to program especially if you don't care if your firmware is optimised and just focus on shipping something.

I think they will appreciate their bitcoins even more. BFL failing is not the same as Bitcoin failing.

In any case we may see a dump. Either from asic adepts which will try to cover credits, or from GPU miners that will quit biz due to asic success.

Your logic blows, remember the production of btc remains the same regardless all you are looking at it is possible sellers trying to get back a quick ROI. They will be there but only due to ignorance and fear mongers like you.

How so? I seriously have problems following that.

True dat, but what does this have to do with anything?


Oh wow.

Just trying to catch the yellow  ;)

This hasn't anything to do with luck... now if you just were to follow the arguments instead of discriminatory dismissing them we could get a real debate going.




always  :D

Cheers where do I send the beer? pm

This guy too. Need a beer? pm.

So if someone is criminal in past the market crashes?

I think that's a minority. Others will still want coins (can't mine with non-existing ASIC), so they might resort to buying them.

I still fail to see the connection... bitcoin can continue to use GPU if no asics are delivered.

I don't get it: "BIG SCAM HAPPENED ABUSING BITCOIN COMMUNITY!" => "SELL ALL COINS!" just doesn't compute.

It'll have about as much impact as an actual butterfly crash.

http://youtu.be/BZpUp4Tl-1s

It's accumulative. Of course none of bitcoin or it's infrastructure would be affected it doesn't have to.
If anything would have to be learned from previous selloffs it is that it's mainly a publicity issue.

I also would like to point you to my signature, it demonstrates the thought process of not only the general public but also the people who are into bitcoin not because of principles but of profits.

The collapse of the BFL can only lead to an increase in prices of coins (canceled boom-Mining), see, everything is going according to plan. IMHO


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=116994.0

I agree, the pirateat40 crash was caused by the false believe that he would pay back all he was holding and promising, which were a huge amount of 500K. The collapse of BFL will cease the false believe that the price of bitcoin is about to crash (because of the always very "eminent" release of ASICS, since months). So once it's clear there is no ASICS existing in the nature the price of BTCs will go up where it should be already (about 22$ for BTC, from my point of view)

Yup. Let's say, I used to fuckup someone here for 10k btc. So what? I don't ask money and don't post pics of my fake family proving I'm not scammer. Hey ppl, forget my police photo, just give a money. Hehe.

So where is hashrate?

If BFL does really show up at CES that would be interesting to me. I don't have a BFL preorder and I don't really think the outcome of whatever happens will actually be that big a deal, but showing up at a big conference doesn't really scream "we're about to scam everyone!" to me.

Yeah, https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/539-butterfly-labs-appear-ces-convention-2.html#post8581

You are both not gullible enough to preorder with BFL yet not sceptical enough to know that get-rich-quick isn't something that comes when you want it.

;D

oh, yes  :(

+1

Completely agree, I dont see any link between BFL failing and the price of bitcoins.  There have been few bad news in 2012 that did'nt affect the price at all !

If someone is short on bitcoin, the person did'nt understood the power of bitcoin at all !

Amen.

There is no evidence that the market adjusted itself in advance to the recent halving. I'd rather consider it's not, and that's why the price is going up now. If the mathematics are not an opinion, the price of btc must reach 22$, sooner or later. The only reason it hasn't yet are all this rumours about ASICS and the Christmas pause the main players of the market has done.
Make sense?

Although I shouldn't be saying this, because I'm holding mah btcs, I have to say : guys, you're fucking stupid.

Some of the you claim to not see any link between potentional BFL failure scam and a price crash. You obviously don't understand how markets work. Trust is the single most important thing on financial markets. If people are upset that they got scammed (again!), they quickly get the feeling that bitcoin is doomed. Yes, it is strongly exaggerated, but investors tend to exaggerate. Also, since bitcoin is an emerging market it needs new investments. Bad publicity = close to no new investments.

And before you start saying : 'hurr durr, real life scams don't make dollar price fall' let me say that you can't compare bitcoin to dollar.

Also, for those of you who say that bad news in 2012 didn't affect the price at all, please go see a doctor. There's something wrong either with your memory or eyes.

If When BFL managers hit the road with gullible people's money in their pockets, the price is going to go down for at least a few days. The only reason why I'm holding btcs right now is to exploit the recent discrepancy between Bitstamp and MtGox prices.

I don't say this often, nor lightly but...

Cool story, bro.

Yeah, that's exactly what people said when the thinking minority warned them about Pirate.

Not what you said, but totally the ranting, hard to follow, no evidence for claims way you said it.

hard to follow? well, let me sum it up for you then.
1, BFL is likely a scam
2, thus its bankrupcy is only a matter of time
3, if it goes bankrupt, the price is bound to fall rapidly

As for evidence, the burden of proof is on BFL, as they were originally supposed to deliver in November.
Price going down after a major scam is a common knowledge. Go to your local library and ask for a university textbook on economics.

Pics of bfl "rigs" from CES

http://codinginmysleep.com/coding-in-my-sleep-goes-to-ces/

But chips... Are there any chips?

Wow. Three plastic boxes. Must be an ASIC without a doubt.

Let's see how they are similar:
1. BTCST was operated by one unidentified unknown person. BFL has nearly 20 employees and we know exactly who their CEO is or where he's located at.

2. BTCST promised something that was mathematically impossible to sustain for any extended period of time. BFL promises something that is very possible by utilizing known technology, and the same product is being worked on by several other companies.

Your point of view make sense as well. But the qualities of BTC are above this little scammers. See the situation with pirateat40, which caused the market to go down for some months and now we are near to have recovered the highest point before pirateat40 default. The people who invested into BFL are much less than into pirateat40 and after pirateat40 there was a huge default of GLBSE and still we are up. The BFL default could give some impulse downstairs, but in the same time the impulse upstairs it would give should be much more powerful.
Of course someone might be turned down, by his loss from the BFL investment, but going away those people the market will became more mature. I wouldn't paragon BTC market with the standard joins-stock exchange market or forex market, because there are a lot of political and macroeconomical manipulation there, while BTC market being smaller in a way is much healthy (personal opinion).

1. wrong. people knew his name, face and address. he even personally met with his victims prior to the scam. regarding BFL, yes, we know their management. we also know that prominent members of BFL were convicted for a multi-million scam in the past.

2. feasibility of scammer's promises has nothing to do with his willingness to fulfill them.

it seems that Pirate and BFL guys have more in common than you previously thought, right?

Which victim did pirateat40 personally meet? also I thought we only have pirateat40's suspected name and address, not a confirmed one. Maybe I'm wrong about that.

True, feasibility does not guarantee it's not a scam, but non-feasible business is a guarantee that it is a scam. So BTCST = 100% scam. BFL = scam possible, but unlikely. Btw BFL just showcased their ASIC miner at CES:
http://bitcoinmagazine.com/asic-mining-updates-asicminer-deploying-butterfly-demonstrating-at-ces/

blah-blah-blah, blah-blah-blah... Where are the fucking chips? Does it able to mine right there?

[quote author=kokojie link=topic=135295.msg1442371#msg1442371 date=1357680963
Which victim did pirateat40 personally meet? also I thought we only have pirateat40's suspected name and address, not a confirmed one. Maybe I'm wrong about that.
[/quote]
uhh.. I can't believe I have to do this, but just for the sake of the argument. Behold :

http://gravina.x10.mx/images/them.jpg
A photo from Las Vegas. (I couldn't find the original one without captions, but whatever)
I don't know who is who, but the one next to Pirate looks a bit like Stephen Hawking  ;)

https://i.imgur.com/Tcbop.jpg
Pirate himself

source : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91252.60  (you could have found it in 5 second if you wanted to)..


Let me repeat it for you, in case you didn't understand : BFL managers were convicted of a huge scam in past. They took several million dollars.

Well, that explains a lot.

https://www.btcfpga.com/forum/index.php?topic=954.0  :-[

First ASIC arrived! BUUUUUUUUUUUYYYYYYY!

http://youtu.be/e4wFkhafEdA

You sound irl just like I imagined

sure...

Hehe. I pleased you like my Iranian emphasis

Please what is your BTC address? I want to buy it so badly! :)

so you called your chinese friend and told him what?

"i want the latest ASIC technology, a chip layout for mining bitcoin and a dev kit so i can hook it up to my laptop?"

i want that guys phone number

1bGSponsor01jkIranian980FreeDom

600 East 125th Street, New York, NY
(646) 672-6767

I will erase this phone in 10 mins. You really need to call there. Mostly everyone here.

can you take a high res (or at least better than that crappy video) picture and post it?

C кaкиx пop иpaнцы пишyт киpиллцeй?

дык eптa

http://www.ti.com/tool/msp-exp430g2

costs 5 bucks and doesn't give you any hashes

http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/2226/orlyjm.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/822/orlyjm.jpg/)

You must be Sherlock Holmes

$4.30

lol

FTFY

Ok so pirateat40 has been seen in person, before he was labeled scammer. But I still don't see his confirmed name and address anywhere, can you point that out to me?

Also, even if someone was able to put the pieces together and confirm his name and address, this is still quite different from BFL whom has put out their real identity since the start.

Learn to use the search tool.
https://i.imgur.com/OcoGI.png
Yeah, they just forgot to mention that they were scam convicts.
Seriously, I get the impression that you simply want to believe and you refuse to accept any argument or evidence.

so you ppl did get any refunds ? the refund policy say you can ask after 01/01/2013

I would expect a scam operation to give some refunds.  As long as pre-order revenue exceeds refund revenue, it makes sense to "stay in business".

As long as preorder revenue exceeds refund revenue, it makes sense to say financial pyramid running fine.

No real product, huge advertising campaign - their advertising is almost everywhere. It looks like a bubble, smells like a bubble and probably ... a bubble.

This is my minirig, exactly what introduced at CES2013

http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/7182/img1612e.jpg (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/138/img1612e.jpg/)

That was actually a little funny  :)

I have to agree but op is still a random whore. I'd still hit it though. ;)

Interview with miners pre ordered BFL products

Turn subtitles on!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ERE4uiufqE

Hilliarious, I hope BFL would make a promotional video so someone could make a Bad Lip Reading video of it.

LMAO well done sir. But Josh isn't coming so he'll take it.

http://youtu.be/H20nEbzzx2Y

I will also be in thr KC area in the next month if needed. Family visit of course.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=133487

Bitpay is directly connected with all possible BFL rumors. If scam confirmed they will be partners in crime.

Nuff said.

Well... You saw it first

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlWrmIqGs3Y

Lol.  Did you make that?

Yes

Micon, hat off sir!

http://www.donkdown.com/josh-zerlan-butterfly-labs-scam-investigation-full-radio-report/

https://twitter.com/DonkDown

For naima53 and ElectricMucus: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpajoF4Uyew (You may say I'm a dreamer but I'm not the only one ;) )