Bitcoin Forum

Down ~4USD in the last 15 mins  :o

Hope this is just statistical noise, or a minor correction...

(edit) back up ~1USD  ::)

Anyhow.. keep your ears to the railroad tracks if you're a speculator

More like one sale.

Probably one big sale.  Whoever it was will probably be feeling the pain in a week or two  ;D

Lost 6 Dollars now from todays high, rally's over guys.. Don't think it will ever climb back, seems like the old guys decided theyre rich enough at 30 and will massively sell over the next hours..

Sell everything! Delete your wallets! Set all miners to stun!

Looks like people taking profit, eating up most of the bids.  There is a very wide gap between bids and asks now.

Yeah, sorry guys, I'm out. 1000 BTC sell order happening in 5...4....3....2...

It's the bad news regarding the DEA and more bad press I believe.  Should have stayed up all night smoking crack and waiting for it to peak while searching hitting the refresh page for Google News every 30 seconds.

Already bounced back to 29USD

Haha, I hope it crashes before my Dwolla links so I can augment my modest 6-week old mining operation with some nominally-baked non-uranium-enriched BTC.

* sigh *

"wotta maroon." ~BB

The market is still EXTREMELY shallow.  Selling more than a few hundred BTC at a time is going to move the market substantially.  This is all part of any market's maturation process, either it will ride out these bumps or it will crash to near zero.  If you know which...  well congratulations ;-)   I am very hopeful that the Bitcoin market will eventually find some sort of stability and actually become the currency it is designed to be.  just my 2 bitmills

Lulz.  Oh yee of little faith... I shall laugh at you when the price hits $100 in less than two weeks.  ;)

Everyone calm down and accept that you are invested in the world's most volatile currency.

@29..


The churn in this market is insane.. I suppose that's to be expected when sharks start diving into the kiddie pool with 5 and 6-digit-USD-equivalent bids/asks.

Casual trader-miners like me can't play with fire this hot.. I hope it cools off, TBH.. could be good for BTC long-term.

Lol, I thought this was funny.  One buyer standing alone again all the sellers.

http://i56.tinypic.com/a0f381.png

hhmmm already back to 30 good thing i didnt sell any..

It's going back up, now at 30! Buy buy buy! Remake your wallets! Reload your GPUs!

well, that's a pretty strange ask pattern. Looks like a selloff.. 1k at each full denomination

Market hasn't doubled in the last hour, bubble's bursting, time to sell. I'm packing up and going home.

Has anyone else had a horrible transfer time for Dwolla funds showing up in Mt. Gox? I sent funds in 4 hours ago from Dwolla and nothing's showing. If the flow of capital into the market is restricted, that alone is going to slow things down.

That was Satoshi and me selling some :D

hey Durr are you the famous Durrr?

Dwan???

oO

Haha no I'm someone else, but Tom 'Durrr' Dwan is actually one of my favourite Poker pro's :) Along with Phil Ivey

Yeah, please scare the people so it goes back to 0.01$/btc. I'll buy so many bitcoins then!!

Well, I am going to put some more faith into my investment of bitcoins for the next little while...

I really hope we haven't reached the peak of the rollercoaster ride just yet.

I just bought some at ~$27 and resold almost immediately at ~$31.  Talk about froth.

It seems like people are scared of having it above the $30 mark.

At least, it's a balanced selloff

Definitely seems to be some serious resistance around 30USD.

I content to mine at a relatively slow rate until early last week. Damn U Dwolla lag! I wanted in for 10K! I would have recouped and doubled down and recouped again! Twice! In a FKIN WEEK ?!  

Either way, a correction on the order of 25-30% would be good for BTC. Even if to momentarily shut up the Ponzibubble Trolls.

I love these threads, they make me laugh.

Hovering around $3/BTC:
"ZOMG, the market's going to CRASH and BURNNNNN!"
"This is the peak for sure, no way it'll reach $5!"
"It's going to market correct down to $0.30"

Hovering around $8/BTC:
"ZOMG, the market's going to CRASH and BURNNNNN!"
"This is the peak for sure, no way it'll reach $10!"
"It's going to market correct down to $0.30"

Hovering around $18/BTC:
"ZOMG, the market's going to CRASH and BURNNNNN!"
"This is the peak for sure, no way it'll reach $20!"
"It's going to market correct down to $0.30"

Hovering around $30/BTC:
"ZOMG, the market's going to CRASH and BURNNNNN!"
"This is the peak for sure, no way it'll reach $40!"
"It's going to market correct down to $0.30"

Dang....misses my entry point...

every dip is a buying opportunity. I just wired more USD to MTGOX. BTFD!!!!

Do you really think 29 million will be enough to go around when >1% of trade is conducted in BTC? It will go up forever, but not always this quickly.

We'll I suppose they're all wrong... Until they're right..

The frothiness alone would have me liquidating some derivative proportion today.

That said, I'm still a newcomer dying to get USD into BTC. I'm personally not foretelling doom, per se - I doubt very highly that BTC ever crashes (>75% of current rates) - Just that there has to be a significant correction at some point right?

If it's a truly a paradigm change (like horseback to automobiles), then no, there doesn't have to be a substantial correction.

There may be a correction as some point, sure.  And I don't mind if one does come.  But it's not going to be down to $0.30 without bitcoin dying out completely, and it would have to be initiated with a major event, such as the US government (or any other government, for that matter) outright stating that using bitcoins as a currency is illegal.  Whether or not they can enforce that position doesn't really matter - what matters is that people would lose confidence, and it would spiral into a panic sell until they're completely devalued.

As long as there's no major event like that though, there's not going to be any major corrections.  I doubt we'll ever see a drop of more than 50% in value without a corresponding event.

The frothiness alone would have me liquidating some derivative proportion today.

That said, I'm still a newcomer dying to get USD into BTC. I'm personally not foretelling doom, per se - I doubt very highly that BTC ever crashes (>75% of current rates) - Just that there has to be a significant correction at some point right?
[/quote]

Percentage-wise, it's getting less frothy by the week. If I had a BTC for every newby who made the same comment as you, I'd be Satoshi Jr. People have been predicting a correction since 1BTC, 1USD.  Don't you get it? we aren't going to "cash out." ever. Bitcoin is money. we're cashing out of FRNs.

You need to factor in that the entire 30d volume in BTC according to bitcoincharts is less than $12.5million, and that's probably >90% of all the money ever traded.  The market cap right now is $200M.  So much of this is just on paper gains at this point, which makes anything possible as far as price moves.

If you're looking at a 2 day or 3 day analysis of MTGOX/USD, I'd say yes we're in the later phases of an upward trend. 1-2-5 day ADX indicates a strong shift to a downward trend. In fact, the 2 day ADX shows a drop from 65~ ADX upward trend to 35~ ADX downward trend (and rising trend strength).

This is all fine and dandy if you're just looking for a quick buck.

If you switch to a 30day, 60, or 90day view though you'll notice that there is still a 70~ ADX positive trend with the +DI over 50 and the -DI next to 0.

Don't freak out folks. Keep growing bitcoin and shut your pie holes about 'where BTC/USD is going' until you know how to actually read some charts.

Just my ฿.02.

1Lhifrdmq563mZxY5gqYPEN5AdkN7Townd - For if this made you feel better about your investments :) Numbers do not lie!

Is Bitcoin just hoarded? Didn't 1,173,487.14 Bitcoin changed hands in the last 30 days of the 6,472,000 in existence on MtGox exchange alone?  Didn't 103,665 Bitcoins on MtGox alone (www.mtgox.com - trade page) changed hands in the last day?  Have Bitcoin as a medium of exchange now been distributed among the masses?  Is this a good thing not to have such concentrated Bitcoin wealth?

It is this attitude which will allow bitcoin to become the success we are dreaming of!

Hold on to your bits, gentlemen. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

But seriously, hold on to them.

Son, I don't understand a word you just said.

But, it's time to do some googling.  ;)

I am personally hoping for a big sell of down to 10 or lower again.. I would like a 2nd opportunity to load up.

I personally don't have much of a dog in this fight. Yet.

But I do probably represent BTC's target market pretty well (reasonably technical auto-didact looking for anonymous non-fiat holdings). The only thing holding me back from investing moderately heavily in terms of a direct USD exchange is the radioactive growth. Im not saying it can't go on like this forever, just that it probably wont, and if and or when that time approaches, there are many like me waiting for a more stable entry point. Just my฿.02

In the meantime, I'll keep on with my 1.5 Ghps.

Loolz  I could be me, i went out when the price was 31.89 and bid on 28.51

one hour ago:
You Bought 23.37 BTC for 28.5111!
You Bought 11.63 BTC for 28.5111!

I hope to in the next few weeks, build a better set of online tools for miners/investors.

I need help to do it in a reasonable time frame, as I'm more of a front end developer than anything... but this community desperately needs better tools. Threads like this one are all the evidence I need for that presumption.

These conversations about the price of BTC are getting just about as interesting as conversations about the weather.

Ivanish,

 technical indicators are concoctions of the past, and in this case are out the window entirely. Float, volitility, news etc etc, are making this mostly unreadable, although I did a "special" analysis last night that told me this was going to 32 within days, that target turned out to be today.

Then you either have a large amount of BTC that your never intend to part with any fraction of, or you hold 0 BTC and never intend to invest.

Let it rain, Baby!  ;D

I could talk about Bitcoin prices all day long.

I think the talking will get less if the price drops...

(No, I'm bullish for BTC)

This is the time to buy!
{"ticker":{"high":31.9099,"low":19,"vol":105869,"buy":26.11,"sell":26.2,"last":26}}

Price dropping like a rock. 20% off high

I would buy right now... I wish I had more money in dwolla.

Here it is
{"ticker":{"high":31.9099,"low":19,"vol":106784,"buy":25.51,"sell":25.6,"last":25.522}}

Correct, they are in the past. However, people will read into whatever they want to, and not necessarily always what they should.

My whole point though is that people need to stop looking at the 2-3-5-7 day patterns and start looking at the 30-60-90day patterns.

The quick bucks to be had will be nowhere as great as the longer term investments according to the 'concoctions of the past' that are technical indicators.

I think we'll see a down trend that will bring it back down below 25 in the next day or so (if not today). So there is opportunity for the 'day traders'.

However, I think we'll be seeing 30-35 again by the weekend regardless of volatility and 'whats in the news'.

There are 4 times as much selling as there is buying.  That signals a massive price drop in the next 24-48 hours.

The ratio up until this point has been at most 2:1 and in alot of the time, there has been a 2:1 in favor of the buyers.  If your going to cash out now is the time.  Other wise wait for the next bubble...

How long does it take for BTC to get from the client to MTGOX?

I hope it drops back down to $10 so that I can buy some for the price that they were going for when I started the process of getting some money from my checking account to MtGox. :)

I just want to say thank you to all the panicked sellers.  We're going to move some major money as soon as selling slows down, and make a killing on the way back up.  I love human fear... because it's so easy to predict and profit off of it  :)

yeah I wish I had some USD I'd be buying on mtgox right now, it's all in BTC so I just have to wait this out. 

This thread alone probably had a pretty intense effect on the selloff. It's crazy how easily the market can move.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD/accumulated_orderbook.png

Market Depth is evening out. The value in the Bitcoin is stabilizing, the impossible growth from $9 to $30+ was inevitably going to fall. While this sell off is quite dramatic its prime opportunity to buy, it shows the market potential without having to wait too long for the bubble to stabilize to normal expected growth.

The DEA is coming!! The DEA is coming!!

They have warrents! They'll close your bank account! You'll go to jail!

SELL SELLL SELLWLLWSLWSLW!!!!!!

ITS GOING DOWN!!!!!!! SELL SELL SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


its GOING BACK UPPPPPPPPP!!!!!!!


BUY BUY BUY BUY


that scene in the simpsons with martin buying Soy at the stock exchange finally makes sense

Everyone sell everything for a straight week, until my new funds clear!! :-)

I'm buying a bunch at 20.. Sell to me!

Yes, yes it is.

Massive Shout Out to the Fundamentalists.

Looks like a stand off between buyers and sellers, lets see who moves first.

You do realize that that picture means absolutely nothing because of dark orders?

I have no issue with a "crash" -- it only hurts speculators or people trying to make a buck (or a euro, or a ruble, or whatever).

I fundamentally believe in bitcoins as a currency. If anything, the recent attention from the finance world and politicians only helps legitimize it as a thing of value--if it had no value, there would be no fuss. There are people putting money into bitcoins that aren't just "enthusiasts". We've crossed over. If there's a "crash", it's only because of irrational exuberance (or the long arm of The Man). The fundamental value--there are people who want bitcoins--still exists.

Even if the government gets involved, the nature of bitcoin means it can't be killed. And even if bitcoin falls back into something just for "enthusiasts" and loses much of it's newfound "value", I for one am proud to be an enthusiast (even a poorer one :) )

This happened within less than 5 seconds

The bids and asks are almost the same...
{"ticker":{"high":31.9099,"low":19,"vol":113866,"buy":23,"sell":26.8,"last":28.8}}

{"ticker":{"high":31.9099,"low":19,"vol":114448,"buy":22.8897,"sell":26.4,"last":22.8897}}

A last sale went through at 28.8 then some how 22.8897 in a flash!

Crap...someone just ninja'd all the cheap Bitcoins. I was hoping for it hit $22 before rebuying.

Yea, there's a huge gap between 23 and 30, prices can go anywhere in seconds, never seen such a volatile market...

How many markets have you seen that are less than 2 years old?

so, what happened today? my theory:

A bought coins for a lot of $
A waited for the announcement
A sold all his coins (probably at the same rate at which he's bought them)

if i had a few bil on my bank account, i'd do the same. just to scare some people. can anyone disprove my theory? is it not possible to invest a lot of $ at once on mtgox etc? maybe he's ddosing everything related to btc, too.. because i sure have some trouble browsing the web.

The "wealthiest" account on Bitcoin holds 297,000 bitcoins... At a $30 valuation it is worth $8.9 million! Is it safe to assume that it belongs to the creator of Bitcoin? Quite a smart guy I must say. His/her wealth may even be spread across many accounts... It's quite disturbing that one person holds at least 5% of Bitcoins wealth.

Could a small sell-off from such a wealthy individual cause this much volatility?

I think it was intervention of the U.S. government. They pulled out ENIAC, dusted the mothballs off, and set it up to mine. The influx of hashes caused a flurry of chaotic activity in the markets.

Instantaneous sell off cant occur since MtGox has a exchange limit of $1000 USD. But yes if he were to transfer in $1000 worth of Bitcoins a day until all of it was in MtGox and he sold off of them it would affect the market but I doubt at that rate not substantial enough to cause a huge crash but definitely loss of value for a little while. It's not very disturbing that 1 person owns 5% of all Bitcoins wealth. In the US the top 10% own 80% of US wealth and the balanced in developing countries like China are even more lopsided. It's just capitalism at work.

Good point. It would nevertheless be interesting to know who this person is... Although the whole concept of Bitcoin goes against that :)

It is my understanding that the MtGox exchange limit of $1000 is due to US restrictions - why aren't there alternative markets maintained outside the US that could lift this limit? If none exist today I'm guessing this will supported very soon.

Last I heard Satoshi was rumored to have 1.5M bitcoins, not 300k. 

That 297k is just a single address.  It's not a wallet or an account.  A wallet or account holds many many of these addresses, so what you see on that list is hardly indicative of how many bitcoins the person(s) with the most coins actually own.

Have you guys seen the spread over at http://www.tradehill.com  ?

$20 to $28 right now. Lots of room to be a market maker there.

They are just getting started, but from a features and fees standpoint, they will give MtGox a run for their money.

You can get a 10% discount on all fees forever if you sign up using this code: TH-R1168

Or, if you like me better, use this code:  TH-R1283

;)

Can someone explain me why the major trading sites have absolutely crappy deposit options? No Moneybookers, Neteller, Visa, Mastercard, usually not even Paypal?

That's something they really need to improve on in my opinion.

paypal, visa & mastercard are all much too easy to charge back

They are easily reversible by the buyer, which is no good. Too much fraud

Wasn't there a thread about KnightMB and his 361K BTC? Was that figure from a single address?

In any event, the true Early Adopters would have been foolish to hold on to all of them at $30. We may be seeing the effects of a limited scope cash-out by a few dozen large account holders. Ultimately, its very very good for the future stability of BTC for the EAs to sell off a significant percentage of their holdings, anyway, and once again, a cool-off would convince a large bloc of investors like, *ahem*, ME, to get some capital into the market.

Also, IIRC, you can circumvent the $1k daily limit at mtgox by furnishing ID for verification, although why people wouldn't simply set up x checking accounts to link to x Dwolla accounts to link to x MtGox accts.....

And with BTC showing a period low of 20.19 and currently at 25.70  - I'd say my initial claim was right, this is a clear Selloff/correctional phase. If I could short BTC-USD on my 4X acct, I'd have made an absolute killing today. Dirty math on the pips of today's drop is insane.

Nope it's back up to almost 30. The Dwolla funds are coming in I think.

Yeah, there was a bit of a selloff today, but that is clearly over.. Whatever excess inventory was being dumped at 30+ this morning (PST) has impacted price and demand has already recovered... Damn I need my Dwolla account to hurry up and link already.. I hope for my own selfish sake that $30 doesn't look like a steal in 5 business days.

Maybe, more likely has to do with the fact it went from  about $1.50 to $31.90 in a little over 1 month.

Lol, this.

Sometimes the truth is funny  :)