Bitcoin Forum

The overall sentiment remains bullish.

• The price won't go below $14.95 this weekend and going forward.
• We will stay between $15.10 and $15.85 through Tuesday.
• We will hit $16 and above by the end of the week.

I'm a newbie. Let's see if my analysis holds true.

It would be too easy ;)

Wow, BTC can rise that fast?

Since I'm a newbie here, does it keep rising or it'll be like the stock market where it can be 15BCT this week, 16 the next and then 12 after that?

bitcoin charts have a very interesting pattern to them. In the short term they alternate between rising slightly and staying flat then rising again and staying flat again ect... in the short term the price hardly ever falls. When the price does fall, which isnt often, it falls precipitously.

Most national currencies are very liquid. For instance, CHF/USD (Swiss Franc) will only move fractions of a cent in daily trading.

Since Bitcoin is still very small, its trading is volatile because you can buy a lot of the supply in one go. As Bitcoin gets bigger and the supply becomes more scarce, it will become less volatile and become more like regular currencies that only trade in cents and fractions rather than whole units.

Eventually you'll see long-term prices that hardly change but it will take awhile.

All the more reason to invest in it now I suppose  8)

Yup. Bitcoin has lots of potential to rise. The tricky part is that it will also do some falling. There's no way to know for sure how much it will rise and how much it will fall.

cool analysis,waiting for the results

My analysis would be 16.50 mid-week.

I wonder where the price is generated from, maybe some exchange sites? It's a myth to me so far.

http://MtGox.com -> http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/

I predict a semi crash to $12.

Is there a site where you can bet if it will go up or down? Like a binary options kind of site but for BTC?

I remember BTC did breach $15 earlier, but it went down after that. Anybody knows the reason? Do you think it will go down again?

I myself am still trying to get a good grasp of what moves the Bitcoin market. This article listed a few theories but nothing definitive. http://bitcoinmagazine.com/bitcoin-price-breaks-15-4-august-2012-high/ (http://bitcoinmagazine.com/bitcoin-price-breaks-15-4-august-2012-high/)

I'm still very new to Bitcoin but my own small little investment has gone up over 10% since I bought in last week. I imagine also that the amount of liquidity or rather lack there of in comparison to other currencies has something to do with it. I'm going to observe the market more closely for a while longer before making any moves, there seems to be lots of volatility.

Did it hit 16 yet? :)

It's already on its way to 17 :o

I think we will be at $25+ by the summer, possibly before.

At one point, it was at 15 and crashed to 10 in a matter of an hour or so, I believe. This was when pirate's ponzi scheme came to a grinding halt.

I'm waiting for a price drop then buy buy buy

One way to look at this, and it's only one way.

Since a market is in part based on trust and confidence, :-) peoples beliefs matter.  I'm with you if there is a sell off, I'm buying.

Confidence alone will not suffice a market.  If there is a place to spend them and people use them then there will be a desire to buy them.  I believe the infrastructure has been developed to the point that there is sufficient services to maintain the current price, and there is enough interest in building new infrastructure that the price of BTC will grow higher. 

So if confidence falls off, as the supply of BTC out weighs the demand momentarily,  as the ASIC mining arrives, I'm buying. 

How might the market take a dip?

- Once ASIC is realized and the network difficult raises to the point GPU miners have to pull their equipment and replace it.  Those that have not already ordered, will do so.
- The doubters of ASIC that now see the ASIC's working will likely decide to buy
- People with early investment will buy more to keep their profitability up as the hash rate busts through 500 TH and to double that. 

All this buying will translate in the companies selling ASIC miners, to need to convert large amounts of BTC to USD, since their suppliers don't take BTC.
Then there are  still others that took loans to buy the equipment they purchased they will be looking to convert BTC to fiat to pay off loans.

After this settles, things will be back to normal.  So a small dip is a possibility.

However, given the recent boom in Bitcoin, there could well be a increase in the price but at a smaller pace than we are currently seeing.

We will soon see since Avalon claims to be shipping.

I still think it's possible for the existing governments to kill bitcoin:

First, just shut off the fiat currency to the exchanges. Shut down all of them at the same time - it would be a breeze. The exchanges are a single point of failure and there are only a few of them. Coordinate a raid on them all at once on some trumped-up charge like money laundering, drug trafficking, etc.

Second, attack the manufacturers that accept fiat. By manufacturers I mean companies who make the stuff that makes bitcoin viable. For example, shut down all ASIC manufacturing, the big FPGA sites, the Casascius coins – anyone who helps bitcoin but takes payment in fiat is vulnerable to an attack the same way the exchanges are vulnerable.

Third, buy out or arrest silk road plus the top ten other bitcoin destinations. If they took out the "top ten list," then bitcoin would be relatively worthless because the average person wouldn't be able to find anything they wanted to buy with it.

Oh yeah, and shut down the popular forums, like this one, by seizing the domain.

Can, and has ...

Its plausible but not feasible. First of all, they'd need to organize on a world wide scale and as long people want it, someone out there will make it again. Bittorrent is a perfect example of that.

It has already surpasses 17$ and rising, we can only hope it drops soon!