Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin => Bitcoin Discussion => Topic started by: fimp on January 22, 2013, 05:11:45 PM


Title: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 22, 2013, 05:11:45 PM
Guessing deadline has been reached - you can no longer participate

Predict the price of the latest trade on MtGox on February 1, 00:00:01AM UTC and win 10 BTC!

Step 1: Fill out this form (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dGY4ckZHTFhIM1gxUWRLYS02NmQwWWc6MQ) with your guess.

Step 2: Reply to this thread with the same price prediction as you entered in the form.

10 BTC will be paid out on February 1 to the user who gets closest!

Rules
  • Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.
  • If two winner guesses of the same price are entered, or two guesses are close by the same margin to the actual price, the winner will be the first to have replied in this thread.
  • Bitcoin Charts (http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_trades.html) will be used to settle which trade was the latest before Feb 1, 00:00:01AM UTC.

Stats
Distribution of the final 287 guesses that made the deadline
https://i.imgur.com/llwzIgo.png
Raw data (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AndZWiwa1OJddGY4ckZHTFhIM1gxUWRLYS02NmQwWWc#gid=0)

Hosted by
https://www.bitcoinnordic.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/logo2.png (http://bitcoinnordic.com)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st
Post by: Bowjob on January 22, 2013, 05:14:14 PM
$21.29

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st
Post by: John (John K.) on January 22, 2013, 05:15:19 PM
$19.6

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: mb300sd on January 22, 2013, 05:24:14 PM
$21.17

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: nobbynobbynoob on January 22, 2013, 05:29:21 PM
$18,82

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: deadweasel on January 22, 2013, 05:33:12 PM
$19.05

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: chris200x9 on January 22, 2013, 05:33:24 PM
15.72

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: bencoder on January 22, 2013, 05:33:39 PM
$19.80

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Drifter on January 22, 2013, 05:35:29 PM
18.26

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: chiliftw on January 22, 2013, 05:35:42 PM
$ 19.83

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: scrybe on January 22, 2013, 05:38:15 PM
$22.60

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: SgtSpike on January 22, 2013, 05:40:32 PM
$16.438559

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: TheKoziTwo on January 22, 2013, 05:41:12 PM
$24.00

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ingrownpocket on January 22, 2013, 05:43:40 PM
$20

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: bittenbob on January 22, 2013, 05:43:53 PM
$18.11

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: drrussellshane on January 22, 2013, 05:44:01 PM
$19

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: malevolent on January 22, 2013, 05:44:20 PM
$16.8

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: 247saver on January 22, 2013, 05:44:49 PM
$16.05

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: alexanderanon on January 22, 2013, 05:46:44 PM
25.00

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: tehace on January 22, 2013, 05:48:34 PM
$10.00

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Bowjob on January 22, 2013, 05:48:50 PM
Quote from: tehace on January 22, 2013, 05:48:34 PM
$10.00

Oh you.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: plasticAiredale on January 22, 2013, 05:52:28 PM
$20.43

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: brunozisterer on January 22, 2013, 05:54:10 PM
127 US Dollar

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: RodeoX on January 22, 2013, 05:55:06 PM
I'm game!  $18.8666

 ???

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: bitcoinscratcher on January 22, 2013, 05:55:50 PM
$23.22

"When/If" I win you can send to 19yYrsWPgHLey3QJdruV9CpCHmGsaCsVAu

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: DutchBrat on January 22, 2013, 05:57:03 PM
$23.15

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Anduck on January 22, 2013, 05:58:26 PM
23.18, fact.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Jourgensen on January 22, 2013, 06:01:35 PM
18.76

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: nexus6 on January 22, 2013, 06:01:55 PM
$18.50  ;)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: epg on January 22, 2013, 06:06:50 PM
$19.87

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: CurbsideProphet on January 22, 2013, 06:13:02 PM
$16.45

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Tacticat on January 22, 2013, 06:14:01 PM
$23.23

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: der_meister on January 22, 2013, 06:15:38 PM
$15.71

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: pc on January 22, 2013, 06:23:23 PM
$30.12

I figure why not be optimistic?

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Dyaheon on January 22, 2013, 06:24:24 PM
$19.911

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: herzmeister on January 22, 2013, 06:24:51 PM
$18.16

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Spekulatius on January 22, 2013, 06:26:20 PM
How many guesses per user? 8)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: archetyp on January 22, 2013, 06:26:29 PM
27

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: starik69 on January 22, 2013, 06:27:03 PM
17.3

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Transisto on January 22, 2013, 06:29:09 PM
18.24something

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Isokivi on January 22, 2013, 06:30:56 PM
"About three fiddy".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9cn7xfBpZ3M

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: juhakall on January 22, 2013, 06:36:04 PM
17.95

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 22, 2013, 06:39:03 PM
Quote from: Spekulatius on January 22, 2013, 06:26:20 PM
How many guesses per user? 8)
One. Your first guess as recorded by the form is what counts. =)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: xxjs on January 22, 2013, 06:39:56 PM
19.387453

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: todu on January 22, 2013, 06:40:33 PM
USD 22.42

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Nerzahd on January 22, 2013, 06:41:49 PM
$ 18.40

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: nbtcminer on January 22, 2013, 06:44:42 PM
$15.5

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: arsenische on January 22, 2013, 06:46:38 PM
$19.73

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Luno on January 22, 2013, 06:46:57 PM
Why don't people save their bet until midnight the 29'th?

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Richy_T on January 22, 2013, 06:49:40 PM
NVM, already claimed.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Richy_T on January 22, 2013, 06:51:52 PM
Quote from: fimp on January 22, 2013, 06:39:03 PM
Quote from: Spekulatius on January 22, 2013, 06:26:20 PM
How many guesses per user? 8)
One. Your first guess as recorded by the form is what counts. =)

I accidentally put in the same amount as another user. Can I pick another or am I SOL?

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: arsenische on January 22, 2013, 06:53:07 PM
Quote from: Luno on January 22, 2013, 06:46:57 PM
Why don't people save their bet until midnight the 29'th?

Quote
If two winner guesses of the same price are entered, the winner will be the first to have replied in this thread.

It's free.. all reasonable numbers could be taken by that time :)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Dansker on January 22, 2013, 07:00:57 PM
20,05

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Batteryfire on January 22, 2013, 07:04:03 PM
19.59

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: modcom on January 22, 2013, 07:05:07 PM


$18.37

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: michaelmclees on January 22, 2013, 07:10:40 PM
17.46

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 22, 2013, 07:13:30 PM
Quote from: Richy_T on January 22, 2013, 06:51:52 PM
Quote from: fimp on January 22, 2013, 06:39:03 PM
Quote from: Spekulatius on January 22, 2013, 06:26:20 PM
How many guesses per user? 8)
One. Your first guess as recorded by the form is what counts. =)

I accidentally put in the same amount as another user. Can I pick another or am I SOL?
Your first guess was invalid as someone else had guessed the same already, so you can enter another guess.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: cryptodrifter on January 22, 2013, 07:15:30 PM
26.81

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Richy_T on January 22, 2013, 07:18:25 PM
18.97

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: xxjs on January 22, 2013, 07:35:19 PM
Will there be a time limit?

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: picobit on January 22, 2013, 07:36:25 PM
16.71

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: jjiimm_64 on January 22, 2013, 07:40:33 PM
18.53

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 22, 2013, 07:45:22 PM
Distribution of first 57 guesses

https://i.imgur.com/UpxNYuR.png

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: MineForeman.com on January 22, 2013, 07:59:22 PM
18.01

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Jurek on January 22, 2013, 08:22:36 PM
$14.4

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: giszmo on January 22, 2013, 08:23:55 PM
$23.74

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: tynt on January 22, 2013, 08:33:51 PM
$15.52

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: theomar on January 22, 2013, 08:35:22 PM
27.33$

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Tirapon on January 22, 2013, 08:36:15 PM
15.85

After rallying to maybe 19/20?

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on January 22, 2013, 08:37:46 PM
$16.42

@contest rules: Is this The Price is Right style where the winning bid isn't just the closest, but the closest without going over?

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 22, 2013, 08:40:34 PM
Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on January 22, 2013, 08:37:46 PM
$16.42

@contest rules: Is this The Price is Right style where the winning bid isn't just the closest, but the closest without going over?
Just the closest.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: thefiniteidea on January 22, 2013, 08:43:35 PM
17.97

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: rTech on January 22, 2013, 08:43:50 PM
18.14

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Grix on January 22, 2013, 08:51:18 PM
17.31

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: FooBaer on January 22, 2013, 08:51:31 PM
13.5892

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: crosby on January 22, 2013, 09:34:27 PM
18.20

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on January 22, 2013, 09:37:33 PM
Quote from: fimp on January 22, 2013, 07:45:22 PM
Distribution of first 57 guesses

https://i.imgur.com/UpxNYuR.png

This just shows how unorganized this forum is. We could have easily worked together to make a much more interesting gesture out of that graph.  ;)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: xcmba on January 22, 2013, 09:42:17 PM
$19.45

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Troll Toll on January 22, 2013, 09:46:45 PM
$15.34

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: BIGMERVE on January 22, 2013, 09:47:18 PM
17.75

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: rng29a on January 22, 2013, 09:59:49 PM
$22.38

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: 420 on January 22, 2013, 10:04:27 PM
19.2765

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: swappermall on January 22, 2013, 10:11:57 PM
29.9
If I win, please send the 10 BTC to
1XoaSiVjBM9caqcAkGj7iEvCBXp8FZpAY

Thank you.  The information harnessed by your graph is very useful for me and I appreciate your sponsorship of this poll.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: nameface on January 22, 2013, 10:14:32 PM
18.36

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Onichan on January 22, 2013, 10:19:08 PM
21.12$

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Meizirkki on January 22, 2013, 10:21:43 PM
22.32  :)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: harrigan on January 22, 2013, 10:22:46 PM
19.82

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: tulkos on January 22, 2013, 10:31:18 PM
21.2

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Shermo on January 22, 2013, 10:35:22 PM
$19.50

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: bitcoin-rigs.com on January 22, 2013, 10:45:10 PM
$18.95

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: zapeta on January 22, 2013, 10:45:40 PM
20.131

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: bitcad on January 22, 2013, 10:46:25 PM
21.22

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Equilux on January 22, 2013, 10:47:02 PM
22.45

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Beefsock on January 22, 2013, 10:47:12 PM
I'm in. My guess was $19.00  :)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: PsychoticBoy on January 22, 2013, 10:48:54 PM
20.09

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: gigitrix on January 22, 2013, 10:54:23 PM
$19.45

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: FreeMark on January 22, 2013, 10:55:44 PM
$26.89

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: bracek on January 22, 2013, 11:01:19 PM
19.09

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: mikeg on January 22, 2013, 11:07:05 PM
23.62351

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: FTWbitcoinFTW on January 22, 2013, 11:08:44 PM
$14.07

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: davidspitzer on January 22, 2013, 11:12:28 PM
18.05

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: btctalk on January 22, 2013, 11:13:28 PM
$19.86

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ildubbioso on January 22, 2013, 11:19:33 PM
$ 20.543

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: tymm0 on January 22, 2013, 11:22:47 PM
$ 18.85

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: okahira on January 22, 2013, 11:34:06 PM
$20.21

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ghostshirt on January 22, 2013, 11:37:30 PM
$20.14

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: (A)social on January 23, 2013, 12:01:28 AM
19.67

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: giszmo on January 23, 2013, 12:02:38 AM
lets see if post count correlates with bullish or bearish predictions:

hmm ... I see no clear trend towards bullishism or bearishism but to realism maybe:

http://lw2.leowandersleb.de/tmp/bitcoin/Screenshot%20from%202013-01-23%2000:56:16.png

I removed one (noob) vote of $124 so the chart gets readable. Interesting that the 2 3k-posters and the 2 6k-posters each agree to different prices.
If you are interested in the raw data (up to 4 5 posts ago):
163/21.29;3309/19.6;818/21.17;525/18.82;66/19.05;410/15.72;87/19.80;353/18.26;20/19.83;381/22.60;6073/16.438559;166/24.00;813/20;1064/18.11;257/19;830/16.8;35/16.05;137/25.00;38/10.00;120/12.5;20/20.43;76/127;1623/18.8666;4/23.22;760/23.15;22/23.18;7/18.76;17/18.50;31/19.87;365/16.45;98/23.23;99/15.71;207/30.12;74/19.911;877/18.16;30/27;55/17.3;1193/18.24;112/17.95;127/19.387453;32/22.42;149/18.40;101/15.5;419/19.73;135/22.09;658/20.05;18/19.59;30/18.37;490/17.46;8/26.81;700/18.97;159/16.71;1346/18.53;40/18.01;109/14.4;1086/23.74;56/15.52;28/27.33;17/15.85;6076/16.42;28/17.97;271/18.14;204/17.31;16/13.5892;355/18.20;7/19.45;68/15.34;175/17.75;6/22.38;3383/19.2765;4/29.9;43/18.36;42/21.12;116/22.32;3/19.82;45/21.2;105/19.50;60/18.95;115/20.131;6/21.22;107/22.45;20/19.00;421/20.09;305/19.45;11/26.89;343/19.09;8/23.62351;16/14.07;252/18.05;43/19.86;249/20.543;12/18.85

The median poster had 109 posts and the median estimate was $19.09.

My conclusion: The longer your track record here on the forum the less you want to look stupid by saying "$8" or "$34" even if you think it's likely.

More interesting than the post count would maybe be the account age. Guess the above picture would be clearer with that.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Hyperwyrm on January 23, 2013, 12:13:11 AM
$20.80

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ninjaboon on January 23, 2013, 12:14:30 AM
my guess = USD 22.22

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 23, 2013, 12:15:55 AM
giszmo, cool.

Here's the link to the data in an easily digestible format for stats making: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AndZWiwa1OJddGY4ckZHTFhIM1gxUWRLYS02NmQwWWc

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Third Way on January 23, 2013, 12:30:08 AM
$18.25  8)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Maidak on January 23, 2013, 12:37:15 AM
$18.7833

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: iamnotcool on January 23, 2013, 12:39:41 AM
$17.69

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: cypherdoc on January 23, 2013, 12:40:49 AM
19.21

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: finway on January 23, 2013, 12:41:42 AM
$ 25.24

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: SaltySpitoon on January 23, 2013, 12:42:47 AM
$15.75

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Canen on January 23, 2013, 01:43:00 AM
19.22

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: FreeMoney on January 23, 2013, 01:47:26 AM
$33.10

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Zeek_W on January 23, 2013, 01:55:59 AM
$14

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: dree12 on January 23, 2013, 02:07:50 AM
18.55

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: MelMan2002 on January 23, 2013, 02:12:30 AM
32.95
 (one can hope, right?) ;D

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: DoomDumas on January 23, 2013, 02:23:36 AM
23.95

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: btcven on January 23, 2013, 02:30:36 AM
$16.29

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Scott J on January 23, 2013, 02:31:16 AM
$9

 :)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: zoinky on January 23, 2013, 02:32:51 AM
$17.85

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: yunk3r on January 23, 2013, 02:35:40 AM
$23.11

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on January 23, 2013, 02:54:26 AM
$20.10

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Ago_Solvo on January 23, 2013, 04:25:45 AM
18.34

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Richy_T on January 23, 2013, 04:37:26 AM
1BTC

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: niko on January 23, 2013, 04:44:15 AM
Quote from: Richy_T on January 23, 2013, 04:37:26 AM
1BTC
Nice try, but you forgot the trading fee...

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Rothgar on January 23, 2013, 04:48:57 AM
$30.012

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: bbit on January 23, 2013, 05:10:56 AM
$21.21

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: evolve on January 23, 2013, 05:41:24 AM
17.85197


edit: someone had my number already, so I changed it

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: alexeft on January 23, 2013, 05:44:55 AM
15.65  ::)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: MichaelBliss on January 23, 2013, 05:47:26 AM
$19.47

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: saddambitcoin on January 23, 2013, 06:54:06 AM
$50.01

the price is right, come on down!

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: dooglus on January 23, 2013, 06:57:30 AM
$18.88

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: niko on January 23, 2013, 07:01:40 AM
18.13

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: scribe on January 23, 2013, 07:08:30 AM
$17.25

Some interesting data here for assessing community optimism :-)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 23, 2013, 07:39:26 AM
Quote from: evolve on January 23, 2013, 05:41:24 AM
$17.85

edit: damn it, I didnt see the guy ahead of me with the same price...can I change my guess?
Yes, make a new form submission and a new forum post.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: smoothie on January 23, 2013, 08:13:15 AM
Quote from: cypherdoc on January 23, 2013, 12:40:49 AM
19.21

really that's all by May?

Try again  :D

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: lepirate on January 23, 2013, 08:49:30 AM
$17.1

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: gimme_bottles on January 23, 2013, 09:13:23 AM
18.59

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: zvs on January 23, 2013, 10:09:03 AM
haha, i spit on your 15.50, 15.51, and 15.53 and say 15.54

i shall take the spot between 15.54 and 15.65 and be victorious


Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 23, 2013, 10:29:11 AM
Distribution of first 144 guesses:

https://i.imgur.com/Q9VCXrY.png

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: skydust on January 23, 2013, 10:33:46 AM
18.06

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: kroneko on January 23, 2013, 11:07:43 AM
18.26

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Justin00 on January 23, 2013, 11:13:21 AM
18.66

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Mageant on January 23, 2013, 11:34:38 AM
$21.23

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: qukkM on January 23, 2013, 11:46:16 AM
$18.35

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Otoh on January 23, 2013, 11:57:42 AM
18.34

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Hannah on January 23, 2013, 12:01:44 PM
$21.97

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on January 23, 2013, 12:20:59 PM
$19.88

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: willphase on January 23, 2013, 12:31:53 PM
$16.44

Good luck everyone!

Will

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: flower1024 on January 23, 2013, 12:33:13 PM
18.22

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: jl2012 on January 23, 2013, 12:42:31 PM
$18.31

sorry I submitted with a wrong name "jlau"

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: mesquka on January 23, 2013, 01:14:30 PM
$19.6

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Richy_T on January 23, 2013, 02:52:01 PM
Quote from: niko on January 23, 2013, 04:44:15 AM
Quote from: Richy_T on January 23, 2013, 04:37:26 AM
1BTC
Nice try, but you forgot the trading fee...

Whilst I was being facetious, I was kinda making the point that the original post doesn't actually specify that the trade be BTC/USD. Mtgox deals with other currencies too, right?

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: SalvorHardin on January 23, 2013, 02:56:44 PM
USD $ 20.25 / BTC

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 23, 2013, 03:01:06 PM
Quote from: Richy_T on January 23, 2013, 02:52:01 PM
Quote from: niko on January 23, 2013, 04:44:15 AM
Quote from: Richy_T on January 23, 2013, 04:37:26 AM
1BTC
Nice try, but you forgot the trading fee...

Whilst I was being facetious, I was kinda making the point that the original post doesn't actually specify that the trade be BTC/USD. Mtgox deals with other currencies too, right?
Yeah, but it's specified on the form.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: starsoccer9 on January 23, 2013, 03:35:38 PM
18.5

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: giszmo on January 23, 2013, 03:45:01 PM
Quote from: fimp on January 23, 2013, 03:01:06 PM
Quote from: Richy_T on January 23, 2013, 02:52:01 PM
Quote from: niko on January 23, 2013, 04:44:15 AM
Quote from: Richy_T on January 23, 2013, 04:37:26 AM
1BTC
Nice try, but you forgot the trading fee...

Whilst I was being facetious, I was kinda making the point that the original post doesn't actually specify that the trade be BTC/USD. Mtgox deals with other currencies too, right?
Yeah, but it's specified on the form.
Right. That's where I decided, not to troll like Richy_T ;)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: minorman on January 23, 2013, 03:56:47 PM
$14.95 /BTC

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: cbeast on January 23, 2013, 04:04:42 PM
17.67

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: jarsumarsu on January 23, 2013, 04:08:29 PM
23.23

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: jtibble on January 23, 2013, 04:24:21 PM
16.75

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: dirtycat on January 23, 2013, 04:28:15 PM
$9.76 a coin.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: axus on January 23, 2013, 04:31:29 PM
Hey, this is a nice, simple, well organized contest :)  My prediction is 16.06

 ;D

(I had to change it, someone had already guesses 16.05)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Chief Satangkai on January 23, 2013, 05:40:37 PM
16.28

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: hahahafr on January 23, 2013, 06:22:28 PM
$18.14

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Richy_T on January 23, 2013, 07:46:07 PM
Quote from: fimp on January 23, 2013, 03:01:06 PM
Quote from: Richy_T on January 23, 2013, 02:52:01 PM
Quote from: niko on January 23, 2013, 04:44:15 AM
Quote from: Richy_T on January 23, 2013, 04:37:26 AM
1BTC
Nice try, but you forgot the trading fee...

Whilst I was being facetious, I was kinda making the point that the original post doesn't actually specify that the trade be BTC/USD. Mtgox deals with other currencies too, right?
Yeah, but it's specified on the form.

Ah, bait & switch :p No doubt you'll put one of those evil cookies in our web browsers while we're there too.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: axus on January 23, 2013, 08:48:28 PM
Quote from: 247saver on January 22, 2013, 05:44:49 PM
$16.05

Oops.  I have to change my guess.   Hold on!  It would be nice if the form rejected entries that have already been made :)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Elwar on January 23, 2013, 08:51:56 PM
$31.5

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Blinken on January 23, 2013, 10:10:42 PM
19.11

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: giszmo on January 23, 2013, 10:28:27 PM
I don't like that changing the bet is not allowed but then again it somehow is when I managed to realize that my bet was taken already.
Bets can be made to arbitrary precision so the betting space is not going to be dense, although a 3-digit number is more likely to be a direct hit than a 7-digit number due to the fact that there are still trades done manually.
Betting where nobody has bet before makes winning more likely as the 3-digit values in the 18-ish area are bet on densely already, it's more likely to win with 22.3 than with 18.333 as either 18.33 or 18.34 would be 10 times more likely than any 18.3x
Sure, betting later yields higher chances of hitting the target so there should be an incentive to pick earlier, too. (Or not as apparently many people bet early. Well …)

If you just invested 10 Ƀ to see where the journey is going, you should provide this incentive more decoupled from above concerns. You want early data? Weight it higher. You want honest guesses? Don't punish people that are off by 1 Satoshi just because the correct guess was already taken. Make an even payout to all within +-5ct. or maybe weight that number with the days before the event that they gave their bet.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: entreprenr on January 23, 2013, 10:29:35 PM
19.4562

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: FreeMoney on January 24, 2013, 12:53:52 AM
Quote from: giszmo on January 23, 2013, 10:28:27 PM
I don't like that changing the bet is not allowed but then again it somehow is when I managed to realize that my bet was taken already.
Bets can be made to arbitrary precision so the betting space is not going to be dense, although a 3-digit number is more likely to be a direct hit than a 7-digit number due to the fact that there are still trades done manually.
Betting where nobody has bet before makes winning more likely as the 3-digit values in the 18-ish area are bet on densely already, it's more likely to win with 22.3 than with 18.333 as either 18.33 or 18.34 would be 10 times more likely than any 18.3x
Sure, betting later yields higher chances of hitting the target so there should be an incentive to pick earlier, too. (Or not as apparently many people bet early. Well …)

If you just invested 10 Ƀ to see where the journey is going, you should provide this incentive more decoupled from above concerns. You want early data? Weight it higher. You want honest guesses? Don't punish people that are off by 1 Satoshi just because the correct guess was already taken. Make an even payout to all within +-5ct. or maybe weight that number with the days before the event that they gave their bet.

It's actually an interesting game as is imo. There is some incentive to pick early since your guess will help keep people out of the range you think is most likely.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: jibinkor on January 24, 2013, 02:16:23 AM
$21.44

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: constitution on January 24, 2013, 02:51:17 AM
21.84$

Great Idea!

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: mygodpp on January 24, 2013, 03:12:36 AM
$18.677

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: twolifeinexile on January 24, 2013, 03:13:26 AM
$22.223

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: nomnomnom on January 24, 2013, 06:43:34 AM
$20.23

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: mokahless on January 24, 2013, 07:11:06 AM
21.47 USD

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: BitcoinsAreFreedom on January 24, 2013, 07:51:22 AM
$17.43

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: elendir on January 24, 2013, 07:57:48 AM
$ 22,1
Nice one, thanks!

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Phinnaeus Gage on January 24, 2013, 08:46:39 AM
In before somebody else: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd

My guess will be the exact number obtained when all the guesses (minus all guesses that are more than doubled the current price--$18.3790 USD or half of same) are totaled, divided by the number of guesses tallied, and rounded to the nearest satoshi.

To be clear, no guesses over 36.758 or under 9.1895 will be considered for the calculation.

If the resulting number proves to be the winning entry, the prize pool will be donated to the I-can't-believe-I-created-this-stupid-Pirate-bet fund, namely Matthew, to disperse how he sees fit.

This is a serious entry, and I desire fimp to accept it as it is. I will PM the link to this post since, with this unique guess/entry I will be breaking one of the rules:

Quote
Step 1: Fill out this form with your guess.

All he'll have to do is quote this post, and somebody quote him doing such, and my guess will be validated.

At the very least, we'll learn how close wisdom-of-the-crowd will work in this case.

I, nor any one of my other accounts, will be submitting another guess.

~Bruno K~

EDIT: PM sent.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 24, 2013, 09:27:14 AM
Quote from: Phinnaeus Gage on January 24, 2013, 08:46:39 AM
In before somebody else: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd

My guess will be the exact number obtained when all the guesses (minus all guesses that are more than doubled the current price--$18.3790 USD or half of same) are totaled, divided by the number of guesses tallied, and rounded to the nearest satoshi.

To be clear, no guesses over 36.758 or under 9.1895 will be considered for the calculation.

If the resulting number proves to be the winning entry, the prize pool will be donated to the I-can't-believe-I-created-this-stupid-Pirate-bet fund, namely Matthew, to disperse how he sees fit.

This is a serious entry, and I desire fimp to accept it as it is. I will PM the link to this post since, with this unique guess/entry I will be breaking one of the rules:

Quote
Step 1: Fill out this form with your guess.

All he'll have to do is quote this post, and somebody quote him doing such, and my guess will be validated.

At the very least, we'll learn how close wisdom-of-the-crowd will work in this case.

I, nor any one of my other accounts, will be submitting another guess.

~Bruno K~

EDIT: PM sent.
You'll have to submit a regular guess like everybody else, but that doesn't stop you from using your desired strategy.

All guesses are available in an easy-to-handle format here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AndZWiwa1OJddGY4ckZHTFhIM1gxUWRLYS02NmQwWWc#gid=0).

Shortly before the guessing deadline Jan 30, 00:00:01 AM UTC you can do the calculation and submit a guess the normal way.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: tubro on January 24, 2013, 09:30:48 AM
$17.17

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: flipperfish on January 24, 2013, 01:09:16 PM
$15.61

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Gavin Andresen on January 24, 2013, 01:21:27 PM
20.11

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: DobZombie on January 24, 2013, 02:06:48 PM
14.26

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: solomon on January 24, 2013, 02:31:44 PM
13.93

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: constitution on January 24, 2013, 03:22:26 PM
So when do you stop taking guesses, as we grow closer to the date I assume we will have to have a point where guesses can no longer be made

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 24, 2013, 03:58:39 PM
Quote from: constitution on January 24, 2013, 03:22:26 PM
So when do you stop taking guesses, as we grow closer to the date I assume we will have to have a point where guesses can no longer be made
See Rules in the first post.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: jjiimm_64 on January 24, 2013, 04:08:47 PM
Quote
Rules

    Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.


I guess it was my stupidity not to wait until Jan 29, 23:30 to make my guess :(

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 24, 2013, 04:19:39 PM
Quote from: jjiimm_64 on January 24, 2013, 04:08:47 PM
Quote
Rules

    Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.


I guess it was my stupidity not to wait until Jan 29, 23:30 to make my guess :(
You could risk your guess already being taken by then.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Zodiac1233 on January 24, 2013, 04:19:58 PM
$21.07

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: waterskeer on January 24, 2013, 05:07:19 PM
18.99

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Mushroomized on January 24, 2013, 05:21:47 PM
23.45

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: averwind on January 24, 2013, 05:24:51 PM
$19.21

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Luceo on January 24, 2013, 05:29:40 PM
$17.79

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: vssa on January 24, 2013, 05:38:00 PM
12.2

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Korbman on January 24, 2013, 07:28:30 PM
$17.75

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: dserrano5 on January 24, 2013, 07:35:10 PM
Quote from: fimp on January 24, 2013, 04:19:39 PM
You could risk your guess already being taken by then.

I see nothing in the first post that prevents a guess like e.g. $19.19191919, therefore making a collision highly improbable. Or am I missing something?

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: uncaer9 on January 24, 2013, 07:40:18 PM
17.7$

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Raize on January 24, 2013, 07:44:54 PM
33.50

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: FreshJR on January 24, 2013, 08:12:49 PM
14.81  :D

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 24, 2013, 09:33:48 PM
Quote from: an0therlr3 on January 24, 2013, 07:35:10 PM
Quote from: fimp on January 24, 2013, 04:19:39 PM
You could risk your guess already being taken by then.

I see nothing in the first post that prevents a guess like e.g. $19.19191919, therefore making a collision highly improbable. Or am I missing something?
That's true. But rounder numbers have a higher probability of being the actual last price, because human traders tend to use rounder numbers.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: homeyhomedawg on January 24, 2013, 10:20:51 PM
19.69 bucks

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Phinnaeus Gage on January 25, 2013, 01:44:43 AM
Quote from: fimp on January 24, 2013, 09:27:14 AM
Quote from: Phinnaeus Gage on January 24, 2013, 08:46:39 AM
In before somebody else: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd

My guess will be the exact number obtained when all the guesses (minus all guesses that are more than doubled the current price--$18.3790 USD or half of same) are totaled, divided by the number of guesses tallied, and rounded to the nearest satoshi.

To be clear, no guesses over 36.758 or under 9.1895 will be considered for the calculation.

If the resulting number proves to be the winning entry, the prize pool will be donated to the I-can't-believe-I-created-this-stupid-Pirate-bet fund, namely Matthew, to disperse how he sees fit.

This is a serious entry, and I desire fimp to accept it as it is. I will PM the link to this post since, with this unique guess/entry I will be breaking one of the rules:

Quote
Step 1: Fill out this form with your guess.

All he'll have to do is quote this post, and somebody quote him doing such, and my guess will be validated.

At the very least, we'll learn how close wisdom-of-the-crowd will work in this case.

I, nor any one of my other accounts, will be submitting another guess.

~Bruno K~

EDIT: PM sent.
You'll have to submit a regular guess like everybody else, but that doesn't stop you from using your desired strategy.

All guesses are available in an easy-to-handle format here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AndZWiwa1OJddGY4ckZHTFhIM1gxUWRLYS02NmQwWWc#gid=0).

Shortly before the guessing deadline Jan 30, 00:00:01 AM UTC you can do the calculation and submit a guess the normal way.

Fair enough. I can submit a weighted average a couple hours before closing.

Thanks, fimp, for your consideration.

~Bruno K~

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Thursday on January 25, 2013, 04:33:27 AM
$15.87

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: smoothie on January 25, 2013, 05:29:16 AM
BITCOIN NORDIC charges 9% on top of the exchange price for bitcoins.

That IMO is waaaay over priced.


Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: TheDarKnight on January 25, 2013, 09:02:50 AM
It's a bit early doors but lest I forget later, I'll have my pot-shot right now  :-[
I\ll say 15.4 USD! ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: TheButterZone on January 25, 2013, 09:33:34 AM
$15

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 25, 2013, 10:25:53 AM
Distribution of first 209 guesses

https://i.imgur.com/5H6AQDo.png

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: bushstar on January 25, 2013, 12:42:57 PM
$11.50

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: JTurner on January 25, 2013, 01:20:29 PM
$16.95

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: TooCasual on January 26, 2013, 03:35:54 PM
$17.90 USD

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: localhost on January 26, 2013, 04:04:21 PM
16.85

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Vorksholk on January 26, 2013, 04:12:02 PM
I'm betting on $19.32 USD per bitcoin. That number came out of virtually nowhere.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: farfiman on January 26, 2013, 04:48:32 PM
17.17

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: paraipan on January 26, 2013, 05:02:36 PM
$16.90/btc (source (http://www.rugatu.com/questions/6271/how-much-do-you-think-bitcoin-will-cost-on-27-jan))

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: dan9575 on January 26, 2013, 05:13:08 PM
$18.49

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Bitconian on January 27, 2013, 09:32:46 AM
$17.88

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: lettucebee on January 27, 2013, 11:11:12 AM
18.01

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: wjohnnyw on January 27, 2013, 02:27:12 PM
18.40/BTC

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: UncleBobs on January 27, 2013, 03:19:39 PM
$17.64

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: szuetam on January 27, 2013, 06:31:43 PM
28,53 USD/BTC
:)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: meebs on January 27, 2013, 07:00:04 PM
18.67

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Garr255 on January 27, 2013, 07:09:32 PM
17.551

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: 001sonkit on January 28, 2013, 02:30:56 AM
18.33

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: mjc on January 28, 2013, 05:08:55 AM
22.45

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: RichG on January 28, 2013, 05:28:01 AM
$18.75

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: rxw on January 28, 2013, 05:28:37 AM
17.59

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Bit_Happy on January 28, 2013, 05:31:08 AM
17.345
Thanks

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Maidak on January 28, 2013, 06:44:38 AM
17.6855

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: onpdm on January 28, 2013, 07:17:38 AM
18.31$

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Liquid on January 28, 2013, 10:21:25 AM
18.30

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: uk1 on January 28, 2013, 11:01:55 AM
$17.52

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: IIOII on January 28, 2013, 11:35:49 AM
$ 19.187

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: glub0x on January 28, 2013, 07:47:02 PM
19.32497823
thanks!
1N97ty8K86qGn7BKBZy7m9JM5gUkoosJE3

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Nachtwind on January 28, 2013, 07:59:10 PM
$12.47

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: BTCGOLD on January 28, 2013, 08:06:08 PM
$19.35
16oR2SaeFLGGMoNWrkLDfTZLuTrmbBQka6

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: OpenYourEyes on January 28, 2013, 08:13:18 PM
$18.06

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: phatsphere on January 28, 2013, 08:14:57 PM
23.31

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: David M on January 28, 2013, 08:16:30 PM
20.6092

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Chloride on January 28, 2013, 09:26:10 PM
$17.88.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Savior on January 28, 2013, 10:19:32 PM
21,45$

Savior

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: SaltySpitoon on January 28, 2013, 10:36:26 PM
$18.52

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Koekiemonster on January 29, 2013, 12:21:59 AM
$20.95

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: BrannigansLaw on January 29, 2013, 12:56:53 AM
$19.25

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: pipboy on January 29, 2013, 01:16:54 AM
$20.12

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Lanzer on January 29, 2013, 02:10:02 AM
$19.10

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fatigue on January 29, 2013, 02:13:28 AM
$20.02

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: enquirer on January 29, 2013, 02:25:12 AM
18.77

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Beans on January 29, 2013, 05:17:54 AM
19.87
1FDmV1NEjXiYinPK2kqEzLKnaHji4NbTQb

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Narydu on January 29, 2013, 05:26:12 AM
20.23

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: constitution on January 29, 2013, 05:29:33 AM
Im watching to see if the 10 Bitcoins is actually gave out :D

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: bitstarter on January 29, 2013, 05:32:45 AM
$21.99
payment address: 1HYPdQXk3bURyXoznRseCp7XRd1FcHnPmy      ;D

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: maxbit on January 29, 2013, 05:45:47 AM
18.83
1GiiLmurSsnSQA5BFVQUkyBN8AG51m8p3h

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: lophie on January 29, 2013, 09:03:19 AM
$22.3

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: psiborg on January 29, 2013, 12:27:37 PM
17.553

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: foo on January 29, 2013, 01:06:22 PM
$20.75

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ravello on January 29, 2013, 02:06:09 PM
$19.64

1CAbceRSzThLrJaE1bdqozFxGfAzLKPZi5

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: peepee on January 29, 2013, 02:33:15 PM
$23.75

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: wannabitcoin on January 29, 2013, 03:29:11 PM
20.44

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: remotemass on January 29, 2013, 03:30:45 PM
$20.0099

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: marhjan on January 29, 2013, 04:22:30 PM
I'll take a shot at a bit of a correction.  $15.8125

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: itai3856 on January 29, 2013, 04:33:02 PM
20.32/btc

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Jan on January 29, 2013, 05:01:51 PM
21.96

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: galaxyAbstractor on January 29, 2013, 05:07:47 PM
$24.43
1486DmG3QdZSP8BCuLRYGhSGCY4js58hia

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: jerfelix on January 29, 2013, 06:25:34 PM
20.69

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: novusordo on January 29, 2013, 06:30:16 PM
20.32

20.33, because someone else already took 20.32.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Ferroh on January 29, 2013, 07:26:58 PM
19.17

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: GIANNAT on January 29, 2013, 07:45:33 PM
19.87

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: elux on January 29, 2013, 08:01:59 PM
Unique bets as of when I started monkeying, about an hour ago: http://www.bitbin.it/leTAYO0H

EXTRACTED USING:
Code:
 
grep -o '[1-9][0-9]\.[0-9][0-9]' guesstheprice.html | sort -u | sed 's/^/\$ /' > unique_bets.txt

Code:

$ 10.00

 $ 11.50

 $ 12.47

 $ 13.58
 $ 13.93

 $ 14.07
 $ 14.26
 $ 14.81
 $ 14.95

 $ 15.34
 $ 15.50
 $ 15.51
 $ 15.52
 $ 15.53
 $ 15.54
 $ 15.61
 $ 15.65
 $ 15.71
 $ 15.72
 $ 15.75
 $ 15.81
 $ 15.85
 $ 15.87

 $ 16.05
 $ 16.06
 $ 16.22
 $ 16.28
 $ 16.29
 $ 16.42
 $ 16.43
 $ 16.44
 $ 16.45
 $ 16.71
 $ 16.75
 $ 16.85
 $ 16.90
 $ 16.95

 $ 17.17
 $ 17.25
 $ 17.31
 $ 17.34
 $ 17.43
 $ 17.46
 $ 17.52
 $ 17.55
 $ 17.59
 $ 17.64
 $ 17.67
 $ 17.68
 $ 17.69
 $ 17.75
 $ 17.79
 $ 17.85
 $ 17.88
 $ 17.90
 $ 17.95
 $ 17.97

 $ 18.01
 $ 18.05
 $ 18.06
 $ 18.11
 $ 18.13
 $ 18.14
 $ 18.16
 $ 18.20
 $ 18.22
 $ 18.24
 $ 18.25
 $ 18.26
 $ 18.30
 $ 18.31
 $ 18.33
 $ 18.34
 $ 18.35
 $ 18.36
 $ 18.37
 $ 18.40
 $ 18.49
 $ 18.50
 $ 18.52
 $ 18.53
 $ 18.55
 $ 18.59
 $ 18.66
 $ 18.67
 $ 18.75
 $ 18.76
 $ 18.77
 $ 18.78
 $ 18.82
 $ 18.83
 $ 18.85
 $ 18.86
 $ 18.88
 $ 18.95
 $ 18.97
 $ 18.99

 $ 19.00
 $ 19.05
 $ 19.09
 $ 19.10
 $ 19.11
 $ 19.13
 $ 19.18
 $ 19.19
 $ 19.21
 $ 19.22
 $ 19.25
 $ 19.27
 $ 19.32
 $ 19.35
 $ 19.38
 $ 19.45
 $ 19.47
 $ 19.50
 $ 19.59
 $ 19.64
 $ 19.67
 $ 19.69
 $ 19.73
 $ 19.80
 $ 19.82
 $ 19.83
 $ 19.86
 $ 19.87
 $ 19.88
 $ 19.91

 $ 20.00
 $ 20.02
 $ 20.05
 $ 20.09
 $ 20.10
 $ 20.11
 $ 20.12
 $ 20.13
 $ 20.14
 $ 20.21
 $ 20.23
 $ 20.25
 $ 20.32
 $ 20.33
 $ 20.43
 $ 20.44
 $ 20.54
 $ 20.60
 $ 20.69
 $ 20.75
 $ 20.80
 $ 20.95

 $ 21.07
 $ 21.12
 $ 21.17
 $ 21.21
 $ 21.22
 $ 21.23
 $ 21.29
 $ 21.44
 $ 21.47
 $ 21.84
 $ 21.96
 $ 21.97
 $ 21.99

 $ 22.09
 $ 22.22
 $ 22.32
 $ 22.38
 $ 22.42
 $ 22.45
 $ 22.60

 $ 23.11
 $ 23.15
 $ 23.18
 $ 23.22
 $ 23.23
 $ 23.31
 $ 23.45
 $ 23.62
 $ 23.74
 $ 23.75
 $ 23.95

 $ 24.00
 $ 24.43

 $ 25.00
 $ 25.24
 $ 26.81
 $ 26.89
 $ 27.33

 $ 28.10
 $ 28.11
 $ 28.12
 $ 28.13
 $ 28.14
 $ 28.15
 $ 28.16
 $ 28.17
 $ 28.18
 $ 28.19
 $ 28.20
 $ 28.21
 $ 28.22
 $ 28.23
 $ 28.24
 $ 28.25
 $ 28.26
 $ 28.27
 $ 28.28
 $ 28.29
 $ 28.30
 $ 28.31
 $ 28.32
 $ 28.33
 $ 28.34
 $ 28.35
 $ 28.36
 $ 28.37
 $ 28.38
 $ 28.39
 $ 28.40
 $ 28.41
 $ 28.42
 $ 28.43
 $ 28.44
 $ 28.45
 $ 28.46
 $ 28.47
 $ 28.48
 $ 28.49
 $ 28.50
 $ 28.51
 $ 28.52
 $ 28.53
 $ 28.54
 $ 28.55
 $ 28.56
 $ 28.57
 $ 28.58
 $ 28.59
 $ 28.60
 $ 28.61
 $ 28.62
 $ 28.63
 $ 28.64
 $ 28.65
 $ 28.66
 $ 28.67
 $ 28.68
 $ 28.69
 $ 28.70
 $ 28.71
 $ 28.72
 $ 28.73
 $ 28.74
 $ 28.75
 $ 28.76
 $ 28.77
 $ 28.78
 $ 28.79
 $ 28.80
 $ 28.81
 $ 28.82
 $ 28.83
 $ 28.84
 $ 28.85
 $ 28.86
 $ 28.87
 $ 28.88
 $ 28.89
 $ 28.90
 $ 28.91
 $ 28.92
 $ 28.93
 $ 28.94
 $ 28.95
 $ 28.96
 $ 28.97
 $ 28.98
 $ 28.99

 $ 29.07

 $ 30.01
 $ 30.12

 $ 32.95

 $ 33.10
 $ 33.50

 $ 36.75

 $ 50.01

 $ 99.00


Really strange distribution of bets. (Compare the number of bets at $24.XX to the number of bets at $28.XX)
Anchoring? Status quo bias? ...Gives some insight into the price expectations of the forum.


Edit: Regex fail! The strange series at twenty-eight are from posts in this thread. *facepalm* :-[ ::) ;D

I'd (try to) fix it... But I've already made my bet. :)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: petrescuerz on January 29, 2013, 08:15:27 PM
19.89 

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: elux on January 29, 2013, 08:16:20 PM
$22.89

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: BrannigansLaw on January 29, 2013, 08:20:57 PM
My guess is the 'mean' of everyone's guess up until 1st Feb.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Evan on January 29, 2013, 08:23:33 PM
20.01

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Serenata on January 29, 2013, 08:56:53 PM
$19.696

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: dotcom on January 29, 2013, 09:04:08 PM
20.50

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: wachtwoord on January 29, 2013, 09:18:14 PM
$19.02

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: SysRun on January 29, 2013, 09:25:46 PM
20.89

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: xorxor on January 29, 2013, 09:32:12 PM
19,4075

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ibno on January 29, 2013, 09:57:29 PM
19.55

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: DanielBTC on January 29, 2013, 10:06:28 PM
$21,20

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: cambda on January 29, 2013, 10:09:32 PM
18.445

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on January 29, 2013, 10:57:13 PM
$20.371

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: kbroadfoot on January 29, 2013, 11:18:50 PM

$17.77

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: deepceleron on January 29, 2013, 11:58:38 PM
19.615

(wins with 19.6075-19.6275)

Quote from: mesquka on January 23, 2013, 01:14:30 PM
$19.6
Quote from: John (johnthedong) on January 22, 2013, 05:15:19 PM
$19.6
-
Quote from: ravello on January 29, 2013, 02:06:09 PM
$19.64

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: no name on January 29, 2013, 11:59:19 PM
$20.652

thanks!

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: deepceleron on January 30, 2013, 12:02:25 AM
aaand that's it!

Quote from: fimp on January 22, 2013, 05:11:45 PM

  • Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Phinnaeus Gage on January 30, 2013, 01:11:52 AM
$19.27

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: scrumbly on January 30, 2013, 02:08:55 AM
$23.47

edit: oops, I'm too late. Oh well, I'll leave it here for fun anyway.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Adrian-x on January 30, 2013, 02:56:39 AM
20.001 USD

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ThePanCakeKid95 on January 30, 2013, 04:33:06 AM
20.21

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: hmmmstrange on January 30, 2013, 08:28:42 AM
19.765

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: themaskedone on January 30, 2013, 08:37:40 AM
17.02

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: uuidman on January 30, 2013, 09:23:00 AM
$19.71

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ingrownpocket on January 30, 2013, 09:26:42 AM
Quote from: fimp on January 22, 2013, 05:11:45 PM
  • Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: giszmo on January 30, 2013, 09:51:39 AM
Quote from: Carlos L. on January 30, 2013, 09:26:42 AM
Quote from: fimp on January 22, 2013, 05:11:45 PM
  • Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.

Bruno got himself an acceptable exception by providing a formula in time (and I would check if he calculated correctly if I were his neighbor when loosing to him). All after that are post the deadline aka dead ;)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: phatsphere on January 30, 2013, 09:56:03 AM
10 is not bad. whoever wins, I propose to donate something to this marvelous forum :-)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: onealfa on January 30, 2013, 06:15:02 PM
19.97 $/btc -dwn

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Realpra on January 30, 2013, 06:39:32 PM
Quote
Quote from: nobbynobbynoob on October 27, 2012, 05:21:40 PM
Would you like to bet BTC10 with me? I wager BTC10 that the price will not be equal to or above USD 15 on the stroke of February 1 2013 at 00:00 UTC. If the price is below USD 15 at that point, you pay me BTC10. If the price is equal to or above USD 15, I pay you BTC10. Sound good?
Quote
Quote from: Realpra on October 27, 2012, 04:10:02 PM
That's a bit much, lets say 1 BTC and it's a deal - I'm not a (very) betting man;)
Quote
Quote from: nobbynobbynoob on October 27, 2012, 01:11:26 PM
Yes, still a deal. BTC1 it is then.
Bad copy paste job I know.. anyway do I get points for getting it so close 3 months in advance?

Here is another quote of mine from Nov 4:
"In this case total price increase factoring in market anticipation is: 20/12.5 = 1.6."*
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=122197.msg1315679#msg1315679

The interesting thing here is that market anticipation had pretty much 0 effect.

EDIT: * as in ~11$*1.6=17.6

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: deepceleron on January 30, 2013, 06:46:37 PM
THE CONTEST
IS CLOSED!!!derp!

The exact last trade can be determined from mtgox directly using the API.

MtGox trade numbers are determined by epoch time + 6 digits. Per rules:

1359676800xxxxxx = Feb 01 2013 00:00:00 GMT (final trade up to this time is winning price)
1359676801000000 = Feb 01 2013 00:00:01 GMT (this trade number or higher (after) don't count)

for looking up trades, you use the starting trade number:
(example, now) Trades since Wed, 30 Jan 2013 18:40:00 GMT
https://mtgox.com/api/1/BTCUSD/trades?since=1359571200000000

For finding the last trade (won't show data until after date):

Trades since Thu, 31 Jan 2013 23:59:00 GMT (61 seconds of trades, to end of contest)
https://mtgox.com/api/1/BTCUSD/trades?since=1359676740000000

Trades since Fri, 01 Feb 2013 00:00:00 GMT (only one second of valid trades to end of contest)
https://mtgox.com/api/1/BTCUSD/trades?since=1359676800000000

Try enough numbers and you should get the last qualifying trade and the first "too late" trade in one data reply.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 30, 2013, 11:01:43 PM
deepceleron, as per the rules, bitcoincharts.com will be used to determine the last trade - not MtGox API.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 30, 2013, 11:16:54 PM
Distribution of final 287 guesses before the deadline

https://i.imgur.com/llwzIgo.png

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: dooglus on January 31, 2013, 12:01:48 AM
According to Mr. Moody, the price was $19.70001

https://i.imgur.com/CzjjtWH.png

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on January 31, 2013, 12:17:02 AM
Quote from: dooglus on January 31, 2013, 12:01:48 AM
According to Mr. Moody, the price was $19.70001

https://i.imgur.com/CzjjtWH.png
Well it's not Feb 1 yet.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: dooglus on January 31, 2013, 12:30:46 AM
Quote from: fimp on January 31, 2013, 12:17:02 AM
Well it's not Feb 1 yet.

Good point, well made.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Phinnaeus Gage on January 31, 2013, 05:58:21 AM
Quote from: giszmo on January 30, 2013, 09:51:39 AM
Quote from: Carlos L. on January 30, 2013, 09:26:42 AM
Quote from: fimp on January 22, 2013, 05:11:45 PM
  • Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.

Bruno got himself an acceptable exception by providing a formula in time (and I would check if he calculated correctly if I were his neighbor when loosing to him). All after that are post the deadline aka dead ;)

To be fair, I did not meet the deadline, and my submission was not based on any calculations. I had every intent to make the deadline, but got sidetracked and missed the UTC conversion.

I'm pretty sure I won't be off by more than BTC1 though.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ingrownpocket on January 31, 2013, 09:14:35 AM
We got a jet to the moon. Hope it doesn't blow up half way.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: bitcats on January 31, 2013, 09:36:29 AM
Quote from: fimp on January 31, 2013, 12:17:02 AM
Well it's not Feb 1 yet.
  In some places it is ;)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: FreeMoney on January 31, 2013, 09:48:16 AM
Quote from: bitcats on January 31, 2013, 09:36:29 AM
Quote from: fimp on January 31, 2013, 12:17:02 AM
Well it's not Feb 1 yet.
  In some places it is ;)

Where?

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: bitcats on January 31, 2013, 09:53:56 AM
Quote from: FreeMoney on January 31, 2013, 09:48:16 AM
Quote from: bitcats on January 31, 2013, 09:36:29 AM
Quote from: fimp on January 31, 2013, 12:17:02 AM
Well it's not Feb 1 yet.
  In some places it is ;)
Where?
wait an hour, i'll tell you..

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Korbman on January 31, 2013, 03:01:36 PM
Quote from: FreeMoney on January 31, 2013, 09:48:16 AM
Quote from: bitcats on January 31, 2013, 09:36:29 AM
Quote from: fimp on January 31, 2013, 12:17:02 AM
Well it's not Feb 1 yet.
 In some places it is ;)

Where?

Christmas Islands...Australia...New Zealand.

Anywhere over there really.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: bitcats on January 31, 2013, 03:23:24 PM
I'm relaxing on Samoa beach today 8)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Korbman on January 31, 2013, 03:37:20 PM
Quote from: bitcats on January 31, 2013, 03:23:24 PM
I'm relaxing on Samoa beach today 8)

99% off topic: I'm assuming American Samoa in the Pacific? I've wanted to vacation there at some point..I imagine it's quite nice  :D

1% on topic: Did we ever establish a time zone for determining a winning price?

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ingrownpocket on January 31, 2013, 04:26:36 PM
Quote from: Korbman on January 31, 2013, 03:37:20 PM
Quote from: bitcats on January 31, 2013, 03:23:24 PM
I'm relaxing on Samoa beach today 8)

99% off topic: I'm assuming American Samoa in the Pacific? I've wanted to vacation there at some point..I imagine it's quite nice  :D

1% on topic: Did we ever establish a time zone for determining a winning price?

Quote from: Carlos L. on January 30, 2013, 09:26:42 AM
Quote from: fimp on January 22, 2013, 05:11:45 PM
  • Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Desolator on January 31, 2013, 06:30:02 PM
Quote from: Carlos L. on January 30, 2013, 09:26:42 AM
Quote from: fimp on January 22, 2013, 05:11:45 PM
  • Guesses can be entered no later than January 30, 00:00:01AM UTC.

Awww, so it's too late for "I bid $1, Bob"

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ingrownpocket on January 31, 2013, 08:12:53 PM
I guess I lost The Game.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ilian000 on January 31, 2013, 08:30:25 PM
$20.40

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: thefiniteidea on January 31, 2013, 11:58:54 PM
Quote from: ilian000 on January 31, 2013, 08:30:25 PM
$20.40

winner winner chicken dinner!

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on February 01, 2013, 12:03:07 AM
Quote from: thefiniteidea on January 31, 2013, 11:58:54 PM
Quote from: ilian000 on January 31, 2013, 08:30:25 PM
$20.40

winner winner chicken dinner!

Only slightly too late  ;D
If I am correct, the last trade was $20.41001
I missed the prize by slightly more than a cent  :o
Any prizes for the runner-up ?  ;D

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: plasticAiredale on February 01, 2013, 12:09:24 AM
Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on February 01, 2013, 12:03:07 AM
Only slightly too late  ;D
If I am correct, the last trade was $20.41001
I missed the price by slightly more than a cent  :o

Quote from: plasticAiredale on January 22, 2013, 05:52:28 PM
$20.43

Wow, i have $20.43, anyone closer?    :o

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on February 01, 2013, 12:10:23 AM
Quote from: plasticAiredale on February 01, 2013, 12:09:24 AM
Quote from: Spaceman_Spiff on February 01, 2013, 12:03:07 AM
Only slightly too late  ;D
If I am correct, the last trade was $20.41001
I missed the price by slightly more than a cent  :o

Quote from: plasticAiredale on January 22, 2013, 05:52:28 PM
$20.43

Wow, i have $20.43, anyone closer?    :o

No, you win, I had 20.371 , congrats!

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ildubbioso on February 01, 2013, 12:12:08 AM
Where can I see the last trade at that exact moment?

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on February 01, 2013, 12:12:49 AM
Congratulations to plasticAiredale for winning 10 BTC!

plasticAiredale guessed $20.43. The actual last price was $20.41001 (https://i.imgur.com/NDmddgd.png), which makes plasticAiredale miss the target by only $0.01999.

plasticAiredale, do you want the 10 BTC prize sent to your signature address 1MksH37MJ228vPudyFzRye4YAjCQpLRdbn ?

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on February 01, 2013, 12:16:47 AM
Quote from: plasticAiredale on February 01, 2013, 12:15:31 AM
AND THANK YOU, this was very fun.  ;D

lol yeah, I was more excited than with normal trading  :)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on February 01, 2013, 12:17:57 AM
Quote from: plasticAiredale on February 01, 2013, 12:15:31 AM
How about 1N7BUxPiqftup9haX8Ch5n4gw4Nwcf7Wz1 instead.

AND THANK YOU, this was very fun.  ;D
Here you go. (http://blockchain.info/tx-index/48113658/545f293993c8d6f9447a000f84ebb84bb76e1712c2f4f62c34e5b55543c93af3)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ildubbioso on February 01, 2013, 12:20:20 AM
Quote from: plasticAiredale on February 01, 2013, 12:15:31 AM


How about 1N7BUxPiqftup9haX8Ch5n4gw4Nwcf7Wz1 instead.

AND THANK YOU, this was very fun.  ;D

Did you do that transaction?  ;D

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on February 01, 2013, 12:26:07 AM
Quote from: ildubbioso on February 01, 2013, 12:20:20 AM
Quote from: plasticAiredale on February 01, 2013, 12:15:31 AM


How about 1N7BUxPiqftup9haX8Ch5n4gw4Nwcf7Wz1 instead.

AND THANK YOU, this was very fun.  ;D

Did you do that transaction?  ;D
I of course made the transaction of 10BTC to his address.

Here is my username signed with the originating address: G5iAbZ7tSYKRXVwnV2yJEeYRxb9Ip+JVSAQ40TV8xXjTfYV6O4iYmzJxpLK8VIq46QIENXnppUIeDc9RWP4T9y8=

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ninjaboon on February 01, 2013, 12:53:24 AM
Is the contest results out yet ? Its 1 Feb at my side now and BTC price is above USD20 now.

http://s14.postimage.org/a8jnsmfz5/btcprice_above_USD20_1feb2013.jpg (http://postimage.org/)
upload foto (http://postimage.org/)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: plasticAiredale on February 01, 2013, 12:53:38 AM
Had to help put the kid to bed when I won, so I finally have a minute to reply a little better.

Thanks again for running the contest. I don't know why you did it, maybe to advertise BitcoinNordic.com? or just to have a fun thing to do, but I appreciate it.

And now the price can continue to rise. First time I ever was rooting for the price to drop  :)


P.S. if the forum mods want to add a fancy Soothsayer flair to my account, go for it  ::)

Go 49ers!

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on February 01, 2013, 12:56:17 AM
Quote from: ninjaboon on February 01, 2013, 12:53:24 AM
Is the contest results out yet ? Its 1 Feb at my side now and BTC price is above USD20 now.
Yes, see posts above.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ninjaboon on February 01, 2013, 01:31:22 AM
wow. congrats to the winner.

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: fimp on February 01, 2013, 01:57:38 AM
Quote from: plasticAiredale on February 01, 2013, 12:53:38 AM
Had to help put the kid to bed when I won, so I finally have a minute to reply a little better.

Thanks again for running the contest. I don't know why you did it, maybe to advertise BitcoinNordic.com? or just to have a fun thing to do, but I appreciate it.

And now the price can continue to rise. First time I ever was rooting for the price to drop  :)


P.S. if the forum mods want to add a fancy Soothsayer flair to my account, go for it  ::)

Go 49ers!
Thank you for taking part.  :)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: BitCoinsLOL on February 01, 2013, 02:18:38 AM
20.50

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ingrownpocket on February 01, 2013, 09:41:13 AM
Quote from: BitCoinsLOL on February 01, 2013, 02:18:38 AM
20.50
GTFO

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: Korbman on February 01, 2013, 10:55:46 AM
Quote from: BitCoinsLOL on February 01, 2013, 02:18:38 AM
20.50

lol.

@Fimp, you might want to lock this thread now

:)

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: no name on February 01, 2013, 11:02:41 AM

congrats to winner!

Title: Re: Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)
Post by: ildubbioso on February 01, 2013, 12:29:38 PM
Quote from: fimp on February 01, 2013, 12:26:07 AM
Quote from: ildubbioso on February 01, 2013, 12:20:20 AM
Quote from: plasticAiredale on February 01, 2013, 12:15:31 AM


How about 1N7BUxPiqftup9haX8Ch5n4gw4Nwcf7Wz1 instead.

AND THANK YOU, this was very fun.  ;D

Did you do that transaction?  ;D
I of course made the transaction of 10BTC to his address.

Here is my username signed with the originating address: G5iAbZ7tSYKRXVwnV2yJEeYRxb9Ip+JVSAQ40TV8xXjTfYV6O4iYmzJxpLK8VIq46QIENXnppUIeDc9RWP4T9y8=

I meant the latest trade on MtGox  ;)


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