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Title: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 04, 2016, 09:42:31 AM Can I turn 0.001 BTC into 1 BTC by betting on sports? It is a simple question I am looking to answer by running a fun experiment. More specifically: is it possible to consistently win at sports betting? At the time of this post 0.001 BTC is only $0.42 and it will not hurt at all to lose this amount. Whether I fail or succeed doesn't matter, it's about the knowledge gained in the process. I will try to update my progress weekly. If you are interested in attempting this challenge join me on this journey! Who can't afford to lose 0.001 BTC?
My investigation begins with the belief that it is possible to gain profit by sports betting. From what little I have read on the topic how I think I should approach this: 1. Figure out which side is more likely to win. How? Follow a betting system/strategy, create a simple prediction model, and follow other knowledgeable tipsters picks in areas I do not follow. 2. Get the best possible odds on every wager. Compare odds between bookmakers, and pay attention to timing when bets are placed during the day/week to get the best possible odds. 3. Look out for errors on posted odds/lines, and look for scalping/arbitrage/sure bet opportunities. Possibly lay off risk on bets by betting the other side using live betting once your team is up. 4. Track all wagers, graph results to know how you are doing, and learn/analyze what you are doing good and bad from past bets so you can adapt. 5. Adjust bet sizes to where you cannot lose everything from a bad string of results. I've read between 0.5% and 5% per bet, depending upon how confident/how much risk you want to take on. It seems to make sense to increase bet sizes when your bankroll grows, and decrease wager sizes when you are losing. It also makes sense if an event comes along that presents a unique opportunity where it's clear you have a large advantage that you should bet more on it. (These two ideas are kind of contradictory and I'm not sure how I feel about it.) 6. Take advantage of sportsbook bonus programs, promotions, and free bets. My first concern is the amount I am starting with: 0.001 BTC. All of the above makes sense if you have a large bankroll, but if you only have $0.43 it does not seem to make sense to be betting 1% of that per bet. I suppose it takes money to make money... and I suppose I am going to have to risk it all to start. This does not seem to be the smart thing to do. Many bitcoin sportsbooks have 0.001 as a minimum wager amount. I'm going to have to be ultra selective in what I choose to bet on. I'm going to have to figure out how to research a sporting event, what is important to pay attention to, and what is just noise... Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: Sengoko on March 04, 2016, 09:49:27 AM Looking forward to see anyone who would gamble He/she is playing sports and it's very different from dice since you pick the teams and not just rolling a number, analysis and general knowledge about the teams you are playing sure helps. @OP good luck! I like playing longshot parlays/consecutive plays like these every once in a while!Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: RussianRaibow on March 04, 2016, 01:03:53 PM Can I turn 0.001 BTC into 1 BTC by betting on sports? It is a simple question I am looking to answer by running a fun experiment. More specifically: is it possible to consistently win at sports betting? At the time of this post 0.001 BTC is only $0.42 and it will not hurt at all to lose this amount. Whether I fail or succeed doesn't matter, it's about the knowledge gained in the process. I will try to update my progress weekly. If you are interested in attempting this challenge join me on this journey! Who can't afford to lose 0.001 BTC? Didn't we have someone trying similar thing recently, and of course failing ;D I wish you good luck though, what sports will you be betting on? I hope not soccer, way too unpredictable. I saw someone else trying to go from 0.01 to 1 and failing, and OP is going further, from 0.001 to 1. That's quite the distance to go. You are right 0.001 isn't much to lose if you do, but I think it's very unlikely that you will make it to 1. However, I wish you luck OP. I'll be following this thread to see how you do. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: Everybitbit on March 04, 2016, 01:12:43 PM good luck on your journey, hope this will make it, saw some people with this kind idea few week ago but none of them are success yet..
its possible to reach that amount with skill and good prediction but of course with luck :) and yea good luck to you. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: BitcoinSupremo on March 04, 2016, 01:38:26 PM Can I turn 0.001 BTC into 1 BTC by betting on sports? It is a simple question I am looking to answer by running a fun experiment. More specifically: is it possible to consistently win at sports betting? At the time of this post 0.001 BTC is only $0.42 and it will not hurt at all to lose this amount. Whether I fail or succeed doesn't matter, it's about the knowledge gained in the process. I will try to update my progress weekly. If you are interested in attempting this challenge join me on this journey! Who can't afford to lose 0.001 BTC? Didn't we have someone trying similar thing recently, and of course failing ;D I wish you good luck though, what sports will you be betting on? I hope not soccer, way too unpredictable. I saw someone else trying to go from 0.01 to 1 and failing, and OP is going further, from 0.001 to 1. That's quite the distance to go. You are right 0.001 isn't much to lose if you do, but I think it's very unlikely that you will make it to 1. However, I wish you luck OP. I'll be following this thread to see how you do. It was me that said going to 0.01 to 1 but haven't tried yet, so how can you say that I failed ,if you are referring to me ? I still haven't because all my attention is to my premium tips threads which is going extremely well so far. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: BTCevo on March 04, 2016, 01:59:13 PM Can I turn 0.001 BTC into 1 BTC by betting on sports? It is a simple question I am looking to answer by running a fun experiment. More specifically: is it possible to consistently win at sports betting? At the time of this post 0.001 BTC is only $0.42 and it will not hurt at all to lose this amount. Whether I fail or succeed doesn't matter, it's about the knowledge gained in the process. I will try to update my progress weekly. If you are interested in attempting this challenge join me on this journey! Who can't afford to lose 0.001 BTC? Didn't we have someone trying similar thing recently, and of course failing ;D I wish you good luck though, what sports will you be betting on? I hope not soccer, way too unpredictable. It is hard but somehow Carles made some good profit before he opened jar. I think if you can earn like 0.1 from 0.01 this is already been good enough because it is already 10x from your balance. And you can try to start over again so your profit will not be gone like that. Why soccer is unpredictable? I guess soccer has so many options for us to bet so I would say that with some experience you can manage to make a good pick out there Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: twister on March 04, 2016, 02:52:42 PM Winning 1 BTC from 0.001 ?? I don't think so, not possible, even the best sports bettors can't do this. To make 1 BTC one would atleast need 0.1 according to me.
Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: Wendigo on March 04, 2016, 03:17:00 PM I highly doubt you will be successful with 0.001BTC starting bank. You will not be able to handle the transfer fees let alone having a proper bankroll manager with that kind of a starting bank. I think you should up the amount to at least 0.01BTC and divide that into at least 100 units if you want to last longer.
Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: rio3233 on March 04, 2016, 03:22:23 PM Turn 0.001 bitcoin to 1 bitcoin on sports. Good luck mate, i think you can turn it into 1 bitcoin on sports but it's so rare, is all your bet will be all in until 1 bitcoin ?
Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: leex1528 on March 04, 2016, 03:33:00 PM I think you would have better odds at turning .001 on dice games, blackjack, or any casinos. Keep in mind you are picking against professionals on sports betting. It is extremely tough to to that many times in a row. I don't know if it can be done or not. Good luck though!
Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: BitcoinHodler on March 04, 2016, 03:44:07 PM your starting amount is very small, but that makes your plan that much more interesting to follow.
Quote 6. Take advantage of sportsbook bonus programs, promotions, and free bets. do you know any place that currently has any kind of giveaway? Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: beerlover on March 04, 2016, 07:29:00 PM Can I turn 0.001 BTC into 1 BTC by betting on sports? It is a simple question I am looking to answer by running a fun experiment. More specifically: is it possible to consistently win at sports betting? At the time of this post 0.001 BTC is only $0.42 and it will not hurt at all to lose this amount. Whether I fail or succeed doesn't matter, it's about the knowledge gained in the process. I will try to update my progress weekly. If you are interested in attempting this challenge join me on this journey! Who can't afford to lose 0.001 BTC? Didn't we have someone trying similar thing recently, and of course failing ;D I wish you good luck though, what sports will you be betting on? I hope not soccer, way too unpredictable. I saw someone else trying to go from 0.01 to 1 and failing, and OP is going further, from 0.001 to 1. That's quite the distance to go. You are right 0.001 isn't much to lose if you do, but I think it's very unlikely that you will make it to 1. However, I wish you luck OP. I'll be following this thread to see how you do. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: Mickeyb on March 04, 2016, 07:33:58 PM Surprise me with that challenge you say? Knock yourself out. It is undeniable that you won't cross 0.02 BTC profit, much less 1 BTC profit
Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: eternalgloom on March 04, 2016, 07:35:30 PM Can I turn 0.001 BTC into 1 BTC by betting on sports? It is a simple question I am looking to answer by running a fun experiment. More specifically: is it possible to consistently win at sports betting? At the time of this post 0.001 BTC is only $0.42 and it will not hurt at all to lose this amount. Whether I fail or succeed doesn't matter, it's about the knowledge gained in the process. I will try to update my progress weekly. If you are interested in attempting this challenge join me on this journey! Who can't afford to lose 0.001 BTC? Didn't we have someone trying similar thing recently, and of course failing ;D I wish you good luck though, what sports will you be betting on? I hope not soccer, way too unpredictable. I saw someone else trying to go from 0.01 to 1 and failing, and OP is going further, from 0.001 to 1. That's quite the distance to go. You are right 0.001 isn't much to lose if you do, but I think it's very unlikely that you will make it to 1. However, I wish you luck OP. I'll be following this thread to see how you do. Though it would take a very long time and you'd have to be pretty lucky to achieve this, but it's definitely not impossible. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: leex1528 on March 04, 2016, 07:40:27 PM Can I turn 0.001 BTC into 1 BTC by betting on sports? It is a simple question I am looking to answer by running a fun experiment. More specifically: is it possible to consistently win at sports betting? At the time of this post 0.001 BTC is only $0.42 and it will not hurt at all to lose this amount. Whether I fail or succeed doesn't matter, it's about the knowledge gained in the process. I will try to update my progress weekly. If you are interested in attempting this challenge join me on this journey! Who can't afford to lose 0.001 BTC? Didn't we have someone trying similar thing recently, and of course failing ;D I wish you good luck though, what sports will you be betting on? I hope not soccer, way too unpredictable. I saw someone else trying to go from 0.01 to 1 and failing, and OP is going further, from 0.001 to 1. That's quite the distance to go. You are right 0.001 isn't much to lose if you do, but I think it's very unlikely that you will make it to 1. However, I wish you luck OP. I'll be following this thread to see how you do. I think your math is a little off. Assuming they win double what they bet, it could easily be about this many bets .001 * 2 = .002 1 Bet .002 * 2 = .004 2 Bets .004 * 2 = .008 3 Bets .008 * 2 = .016 4 Bets .016 * 2 = .032 5 Bets .032 * 2 = .064 6 Bets .064 * 2 = .128 7 Bets .128 * 2 = .256 8 Bets .256 * 2 = .512 9 Bets .512 * 2 = 1.024 10 Bets 10 bets and he could win over 1BTC. Now he could even make this smaller if he won some with worse odds, or larger if he won some with really good odds. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: Freddynic159 on March 04, 2016, 07:52:24 PM It is a very ambitious purpose. I am sure that with the passage of time and a bit of luck you can comply with it. ;)
Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: onlinedragon on March 04, 2016, 07:59:08 PM Will be great if you can archive this but don't think it's that easy few bets in a row and you lose a big part.
Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 04, 2016, 10:13:30 PM This is the start of my research on deciding what to bet. My aim is to share my thoughts and strategy. I want to be as transparent as possible, and it would be cool to get feedback to check if my thoughts make sense. Starting with such a small amount (0.001 BTC) means I have little room for error. What should I start to examine first? Immediately what comes to mind is to bet on good teams, and bet against bad teams. This seems simple enough, but what defines a good team? What makes a team bad? What makes one side better than another? Most sports have a table that show their teams standings for the current season. In these standings teams that are having a successful season will be above teams that are not successful. It appears that good teams may be at the top of the table, and bad teams may be at the bottom of the table. So if a team is at the top of the standings should you bet them automatically? No. While the standings reflect the combined results of a team's season, they do not take in other factors: 1. How has the team been performing recently? Teams can go on winning or losing streaks. A team could be near the top of the table, but have lost their last five games. It must be investigated why a team has won/lost their last five games, and an interpretation must be made about what a team's recent form says about them. 2. Has the team played this opponent before? Who has won more head to head? How long ago were these games played? I believe more weight should be put on games played during the current season, and the more recent the games the better. Over time teams and players are changing, and that team years ago, maybe even months/weeks/days ago, is different. If the record is very lopsided, or very close, this seems to be valuable information. An interpretation must be made about what a team's head to head record reveals about their match up. 3. What is the margin of victory (or defeat) typically for the team? Are they blowing out the teams they have played, or are they barely scraping out wins by a few points? Recently what is the margin over the last few games compared to the season as a whole? What is their average game margin against teams ranked above them, similarly to them, and below them? Do they under perform or over perform against certain teams on a consistent basis? When they gain a lead how often do they maintain it, and how often do they give it up? I'm not sure that I totally believe "the better the team the more they should win by", but having a consistently positive margin is an expression of skill, and it also seems to be a measure of consistency. An interpretation must be made about what a teams margin of victory says about their potential skill and consistency. 4. Are there any notable players included/excluded, or injuries that are important to a team? Certain players can be more important than others, and have a greater impact upon a team. Who are these key players, and how can we identify them? Are certain players playing while injured while not being 100% healthy? Teams and news sites publish lineups and injury information before a game starts. A judgement must be made on whether or not a team is better or worse with the current starting player lineup, and whether or not the players are healthy, and what effect this will have on the team's performance. 5. Where is the game being played, and what other various lesser important conditions/intangibles surround it? (Warning, here I seem to go down a rabbit hole): The coach. How long has he been coaching? What is his track record? What is his philosophy on the game versus how the team is actually playing right now under him? Does the team appear to respect and listen to him? The man who prepares and manages his team must be accountable for their performance. An interpretation must be made about the impact of the coach on the performance of the team. Is it being played at home? Away? At a neutral location? Maybe a team has played better at home, or worse away. An interpretation must be made about whether the location has an impact on the performance of a team. What will the weather be like? whether it's pouring rain, extremely hot/cold, or an absolute perfect day, surely this will affect performance. I'm unsure how to quantify the effect of weather though, and I need to think about this question more, but an interpretation must be made on the impact of weather on a team's match. Will there be a biased crowd? Maybe the crowd could affect officiating decisions. Who are the officials/referees for the match, and do they have a history showing their style of officiating, and what effect will this style possibly have? Maybe an official is reluctant to call certain fouls and this will affect how the game is played. An interpretation must be made on the effect officials may have on a team's match. How long ago did the team travel and was it far? Maybe a short turnaround between games and traveling could have an effect. People get tired. Jet lag is a real thing, crossing time zones, and just travel in general can take a lot out of you. An interpretation must be made on the effect of a team's travel/match turnaround time on their performance. When was the last time the teams played? Is it the first week of the season, or are teams coming off of a holiday/break/bye week? How do breaks affect teams? Do teams become more refreshed, or do they become rusty needing time to adjust? I'm unsure to the answer, but an interpretation must be made examining the effect of time between matches played on a teams performance. What is the financial status of the team, and are there any concerns with the organization? Is the team as a business being run by competent people, or are there concerns? Is attendance good or poor? These may be distracting issues to players/coaches affecting performance. Or to go further, if the team's backbone, the owner and general organization, are doing a poor job hiring and managing staff/talent then maybe it has a lingering negative effect on a team. An interpretation must be made on whether the business operations of a team has an effect on the teams performance. In any case these are only some of the factors to consider that I thought of. Can you think of others? There seems to be an absurdly large amount of things that can have an effect on any event, and it seems impossible to consider them all. This has to be a game of having an imperfect set of information, and drawing conclusions from it. Better yet, this is all before we look at the available odds to bet on from the sportsbooks, which is what I will look at next... Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: leex1528 on March 04, 2016, 10:45:26 PM This is the start of my research on deciding what to bet. My aim is to share my thoughts and strategy. I want to be as transparent as possible, and it would be cool to get feedback to check if my thoughts make sense. Starting with such a small amount (0.001 BTC) means I have little room for error. What should I start to examine first? Immediately what comes to mind is to bet on good teams, and bet against bad teams. This seems simple enough, but what defines a good team? What makes a team bad? What makes one side better than another? Most sports have a table that show their teams standings for the current season. In these standings teams that are having a successful season will be above teams that are not successful. It appears that good teams may be at the top of the table, and bad teams may be at the bottom of the table. So if a team is at the top of the standings should you bet them automatically? No. While the standings reflect the combined results of a team's season, they do not take in other factors: 1. How has the team been performing recently? Teams can go on winning or losing streaks. A team could be near the top of the table, but have lost their last five games. It must be investigated why a team has won/lost their last five games, and an interpretation must be made about what a team's recent form says about them. 2. Has the team played this opponent before? Who has won more head to head? How long ago were these games played? I believe more weight should be put on games played during the current season, and the more recent the games the better. Over time teams and players are changing, and that team years ago, maybe even months/weeks/days ago, is different. If the record is very lopsided, or very close, this seems to be valuable information. An interpretation must be made about what a team's head to head record reveals about their match up. 3. What is the margin of victory (or defeat) typically for the team? Are they blowing out the teams they have played, or are they barely scraping out wins by a few points? Recently what is the margin over the last few games compared to the season as a whole? What is their average game margin against teams ranked above them, similarly to them, and below them? Do they under perform or over perform against certain teams on a consistent basis? When they gain a lead how often do they maintain it, and how often do they give it up? I'm not sure that I totally believe "the better the team the more they should win by", but having a consistently positive margin is an expression of skill, and it also seems to be a measure of consistency. An interpretation must be made about what a teams margin of victory says about their potential skill and consistency. 4. Are there any notable players included/excluded, or injuries that are important to a team? Certain players can be more important than others, and have a greater impact upon a team. Who are these key players, and how can we identify them? Are certain players playing while injured while not being 100% healthy? Teams and news sites publish lineups and injury information before a game starts. A judgement must be made on whether or not a team is better or worse with the current starting player lineup, and whether or not the players are healthy, and what effect this will have on the team's performance. 5. Where is the game being played, and what other various lesser important conditions/intangibles surround it? (Warning, here I seem to go down a rabbit hole): The coach. How long has he been coaching? What is his track record? What is his philosophy on the game versus how the team is actually playing right now under him? Does the team appear to respect and listen to him? The man who prepares and manages his team must be accountable for their performance. An interpretation must be made about the impact of the coach on the performance of the team. Is it being played at home? Away? At a neutral location? Maybe a team has played better at home, or worse away. An interpretation must be made about whether the location has an impact on the performance of a team. What will the weather be like? whether it's pouring rain, extremely hot/cold, or an absolute perfect day, surely this will affect performance. I'm unsure how to quantify the effect of weather though, and I need to think about this question more, but an interpretation must be made on the impact of weather on a team's match. Will there be a biased crowd? Maybe the crowd could affect officiating decisions. Who are the officials/referees for the match, and do they have a history showing their style of officiating, and what effect will this style possibly have? Maybe an official is reluctant to call certain fouls and this will affect how the game is played. An interpretation must be made on the effect officials may have on a team's match. How long ago did the team travel and was it far? Maybe a short turnaround between games and traveling could have an effect. People get tired. Jet lag is a real thing, crossing time zones, and just travel in general can take a lot out of you. An interpretation must be made on the effect of a team's travel/match turnaround time on their performance. When was the last time the teams played? Is it the first week of the season, or are teams coming off of a holiday/break/bye week? How do breaks affect teams? Do teams become more refreshed, or do they become rusty needing time to adjust? I'm unsure to the answer, but an interpretation must be made examining the effect of time between matches played on a teams performance. What is the financial status of the team, and are there any concerns with the organization? Is the team as a business being run by competent people, or are there concerns? Is attendance good or poor? These may be distracting issues to players/coaches affecting performance. Or to go further, if the team's backbone, the owner and general organization, are doing a poor job hiring and managing staff/talent then maybe it has a lingering negative effect on a team. An interpretation must be made on whether the business operations of a team has an effect on the teams performance. In any case these are only some of the factors to consider that I thought of. Can you think of others? There seems to be an absurdly large amount of things that can have an effect on any event, and it seems impossible to consider them all. This has to be a game of having an imperfect set of information, and drawing conclusions from it. Better yet, this is all before we look at the available odds to bet on from the sportsbooks, which is what I will look at next... Most of the reasons you listed have little to do with what determines a sporting outcome. As a matter of fact most of the ones you listed usually result in the exact opposite happening. I would try reading a few books on this, lots of great authors out there and you will realize how hard it is to win at sport betting Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 05, 2016, 12:37:57 AM Most of the reasons you listed have little to do with what determines a sporting outcome. As a matter of fact most of the ones you listed usually result in the exact opposite happening. I'm sorry, I am confused at what you are trying to say here. Can you give an example? What do you personally think determines the outcome of a sporting event, and what should be investigated? Have you had success betting on sports? I will give some examples of my thinking: - A team at the top of the standings should on average win more than lose against a team at the bottom of the standings. - A team who is recently playing poorly (losing their last five games in a row) should on average lose more to a team who is on a roll (winning their last 10 games in a row). - A team who is 12-0 head to head against another team is likely to win again in their next meeting. - A team who has never lost by more than a 15 point margin this year is getting 22 points on the spread. They are more likely to cover the spread than not. - A team who is 24-2 at home is likely to win their next home game. - A team who is replacing multiple impact players with lesser players due to injuries or other circumstances is going to be weaker than they are normally, and are vulnerable. - A team is playing a match in which where they must overcome a deficit like an aggregate score, and will alter their playing style to aggressively take more risk. Say it's the soccer world cup, and a team needs to overcome a 2 goal lead to qualify. It is likely for there to be more goal scoring chances. - A team has a coach who has patterns where he does certain things in certain situations. For example in a college basketball game where a coach has designed a certain style of play where he slows down the game, creating considerably less possessions and points, games may become closer and lower scoring. - A team who has more finances/resources to spend will likely win more over time than a team who has less to spend. I would try reading a few books on this, lots of great authors out there Any books on sports betting that you would suggest reading? My first bet today I risked 0.001 BTC on the Worcester Wolves ml at 1.28 odds in the British Basketball League team. They were 8 point favorites, 7 places in the standings above their opponent Leeds Force, and top 2 in the standings for the BBL, so it seemed more likely they would win over a team who has performed worse over the current season. https://i.imgur.com/IBJL9Fb.jpg http://www.betexplorer.com/basketball/united-kingdom/bbl/matchdetails.php?matchid=rPFDil9b (http://www.betexplorer.com/basketball/united-kingdom/bbl/matchdetails.php?matchid=rPFDil9b) https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/b0cfb5bQ21ESzFJbEszVXZMWVB3SzF1b0Q2dz09/r/595422/ (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/b0cfb5bQ21ESzFJbEszVXZMWVB3SzF1b0Q2dz09/r/595422/) Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 05, 2016, 01:34:18 AM So I am risking 0.00128 BTC on Illinois State money line at 1.58 odds to beat Indiana state in college basketball. The game starts tonight in about an hour.
https://i.imgur.com/1fsI3mj.jpg http://espn.go.com/ncb/game?gameId=400868334 (http://espn.go.com/ncb/game?gameId=400868334) https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/1eca34cWmtuSWZ0SGVPeWxRYW1CZTNGdjc5UT09/r/595422 (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/1eca34cWmtuSWZ0SGVPeWxRYW1CZTNGdjc5UT09/r/595422) The main reason I took Illinois State is because they were able to win 9 of their last 12 regular season games, and even beat Wichita State who appear to be a good team. Their recent form is better than Indiana state. They are rated better defensively than Indiana State, which I believe will be the difference in the contest. Also Indiana state is ranked two spots lower than Illinois State in the conference standings, so they have performed slightly worse this season. Indiana has won only 46% of their games so they do not have a winning record. * Well that was a huge fail! I will have to think about what went wrong. For starters I did not spend enough time making a decision. I was not patient enough, not selective enough, and did not research enough I suppose. It was surprising how badly Illinois played, and I wonder if there was anything that would have indicated that before the game started. I guess I have learned that Illinois State college basketball is a fairly inconsistent team. Maybe going forward I will focus on teams who are extremely consistent. While I am disappointed, I'm not going to give up, and I'm going to restart the challenge from 0.001 BTC. Currently my overall profit sits at -0.001 BTC. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: RussianRaibow on March 07, 2016, 02:05:58 PM Can I turn 0.001 BTC into 1 BTC by betting on sports? It is a simple question I am looking to answer by running a fun experiment. More specifically: is it possible to consistently win at sports betting? At the time of this post 0.001 BTC is only $0.42 and it will not hurt at all to lose this amount. Whether I fail or succeed doesn't matter, it's about the knowledge gained in the process. I will try to update my progress weekly. If you are interested in attempting this challenge join me on this journey! Who can't afford to lose 0.001 BTC? Didn't we have someone trying similar thing recently, and of course failing ;D I wish you good luck though, what sports will you be betting on? I hope not soccer, way too unpredictable. I saw someone else trying to go from 0.01 to 1 and failing, and OP is going further, from 0.001 to 1. That's quite the distance to go. You are right 0.001 isn't much to lose if you do, but I think it's very unlikely that you will make it to 1. However, I wish you luck OP. I'll be following this thread to see how you do. It was me that said going to 0.01 to 1 but haven't tried yet, so how can you say that I failed ,if you are referring to me ? I still haven't because all my attention is to my premium tips threads which is going extremely well so far. It must not have been you then. The person I'm thinking of failed more than once in their challenge to go from 0.01 to 1BTC. They were going to keep trying until they made it, but were just starting over from 0.01 when they lost all their bet. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: 7Priest7 on March 07, 2016, 02:09:57 PM yes it is possible, you can try to bet on basketball, nba, because a lot of games each week, and there are a lot of predictions allready, even if odds are very good try bet on them, because you won't loose your money, good luck on geting your bitcoin
Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: Zaragota95 on March 07, 2016, 03:16:50 PM So I am risking 0.00128 BTC on Illinois State money line at 1.58 odds to beat Indiana state in college basketball. The game starts tonight in about an hour. https://i.imgur.com/1fsI3mj.jpg http://espn.go.com/ncb/game?gameId=400868334 (http://espn.go.com/ncb/game?gameId=400868334) https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/1eca34cWmtuSWZ0SGVPeWxRYW1CZTNGdjc5UT09/r/595422 (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/1eca34cWmtuSWZ0SGVPeWxRYW1CZTNGdjc5UT09/r/595422) The main reason I took Illinois State is because they were able to win 9 of their last 12 regular season games, and even beat Wichita State who appear to be a good team. Their recent form is better than Indiana state. They are rated better defensively than Indiana State, which I believe will be the difference in the contest. Also Indiana state is ranked two spots lower than Illinois State in the conference standings, so they have performed slightly worse this season. Indiana has won only 46% of their games so they do not have a winning record. * Well that was a huge fail! I will have to think about what went wrong. For starters I did not spend enough time making a decision. I was not patient enough, not selective enough, and did not research enough I suppose. It was surprising how badly Illinois played, and I wonder if there was anything that would have indicated that before the game started. I guess I have learned that Illinois State college basketball is a fairly inconsistent team. Maybe going forward I will focus on teams who are extremely consistent. While I am disappointed, I'm not going to give up, and I'm going to restart the challenge from 0.001 BTC. Currently my overall profit sits at -0.001 BTC. So you failed on your first step? :D Well you can learn from your own mistakes if nothing else. But you're being overly analytical here, if betting was all about analytics everyone would be winning all the time. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: Farma on March 07, 2016, 04:29:51 PM you're so great if you really can do it, because nominal bitcoin 0.001 was very far from 1 bitcoin, I can only watch you alone, so good luck ;D
Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: leex1528 on March 07, 2016, 04:40:23 PM Most of the reasons you listed have little to do with what determines a sporting outcome. As a matter of fact most of the ones you listed usually result in the exact opposite happening. I'm sorry, I am confused at what you are trying to say here. Can you give an example? What do you personally think determines the outcome of a sporting event, and what should be investigated? Have you had success betting on sports? I will give some examples of my thinking: - A team at the top of the standings should on average win more than lose against a team at the bottom of the standings. - A team who is recently playing poorly (losing their last five games in a row) should on average lose more to a team who is on a roll (winning their last 10 games in a row). - A team who is 12-0 head to head against another team is likely to win again in their next meeting. - A team who has never lost by more than a 15 point margin this year is getting 22 points on the spread. They are more likely to cover the spread than not. - A team who is 24-2 at home is likely to win their next home game. - A team who is replacing multiple impact players with lesser players due to injuries or other circumstances is going to be weaker than they are normally, and are vulnerable. - A team is playing a match in which where they must overcome a deficit like an aggregate score, and will alter their playing style to aggressively take more risk. Say it's the soccer world cup, and a team needs to overcome a 2 goal lead to qualify. It is likely for there to be more goal scoring chances. - A team has a coach who has patterns where he does certain things in certain situations. For example in a college basketball game where a coach has designed a certain style of play where he slows down the game, creating considerably less possessions and points, games may become closer and lower scoring. - A team who has more finances/resources to spend will likely win more over time than a team who has less to spend. I would try reading a few books on this, lots of great authors out there Any books on sports betting that you would suggest reading? My first bet today I risked 0.001 BTC on the Worcester Wolves ml at 1.28 odds in the British Basketball League team. They were 8 point favorites, 7 places in the standings above their opponent Leeds Force, and top 2 in the standings for the BBL, so it seemed more likely they would win over a team who has performed worse over the current season. https://i.imgur.com/IBJL9Fb.jpg http://www.betexplorer.com/basketball/united-kingdom/bbl/matchdetails.php?matchid=rPFDil9b (http://www.betexplorer.com/basketball/united-kingdom/bbl/matchdetails.php?matchid=rPFDil9b) https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/b0cfb5bQ21ESzFJbEszVXZMWVB3SzF1b0Q2dz09/r/595422/ (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/b0cfb5bQ21ESzFJbEszVXZMWVB3SzF1b0Q2dz09/r/595422/) Read scorecasting (https://books.google.com/books/about/Scorecasting.html?id=0lSi_eCQvNwC&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&hl=en#v=onepage&q&f=false) Your statements sort of contradict each other. You say, a team that is at the top of the standings should win more than a team at the bottom. Then you say a team that has a winning streak should beat a team with a losing streak, what if the team at the top of the standings is on a losing streak where a team at the bottom of the standings is on a winning streak? Most of the streaks you are referring to are wrong, most of the time you have to look over the long course of the season, career, etc. Give that book a look at its a great read and really makes you think of other things out there Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 07, 2016, 05:22:05 PM Thanks leex! I just ordered that scorecasting book on amazon, looks great. I also with it ordered this book Trading Bases: How a Wall Street Trader Made a Fortune Betting on Baseball by Joe Peta. Since baseball season is coming up, maybe it will be insightful!
I am having another go today, starting with 0.001. This is my second attempt at the challenge, and currently my profit is (-0.001 btc). My first bet is a Soccer under 2.5 @1.5 odds in the Greek league: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/43c0c0eUWUyT3B3NnRGWnpPdXgvcHJIRVlwUT09/r/595422/ (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/43c0c0eUWUyT3B3NnRGWnpPdXgvcHJIRVlwUT09/r/595422/) Looking at their results there are not many goals scored between the AEK Athens and Asteras Tripolis: http://www.flashscore.com/match/06PEJHr1/#h2h;overall (http://www.flashscore.com/match/06PEJHr1/#h2h;overall) They've had many draws and low scoring matches, so I figure why won't there be another low scoring match today. It starts in about 10 minutes from now. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: dipkiss on March 07, 2016, 05:34:41 PM Try to make 0.10 btc with just 0.001 btc bankroll..making 1btc is quit impossible and you need to place thousands of bets.
Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 07, 2016, 06:34:36 PM Your statements sort of contradict each other. You say, a team that is at the top of the standings should win more than a team at the bottom. Then you say a team that has a winning streak should beat a team with a losing streak, what if the team at the top of the standings is on a losing streak where a team at the bottom of the standings is on a winning streak? Your example is a great situation of when you have to be careful, but I think this is being far too literal with what I'm saying. I do not think it is black and white. I do not think 100% of the time you should bet on the team with the better record, or bet only on the team with the better winning streak. These are just elements that can add to a greater understanding of a match up. It's about predicting/taking an educated guess at the outcome of a match with all the available info. I would never suggest following some list of stone carved betting commandments like a Neanderthal! https://i.imgur.com/KJnHiCb.jpg?1 I will try to answer your question: If a team is at the top of the standings then they have been performing better over the course of the current season than a team at the bottom of the standings. If a team is on a significant recent current winning streak then they been performing better than a team who is on a significant recent current losing streak. Your question is more about what to value more: performance over the course of a season, or current performance. This is where you need to dig deeper, research, and make assumptions about what is affecting a team's performance over time. Are there current lineup changes due to injury, trades, coaching decisions, or something else? Where are they playing the matches--does the environment have an effect? You can find information that appears to explain a team's current performance, and make assumptions that this information will impact the team's future performance. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: Psi on March 07, 2016, 06:55:30 PM Its easy to over analyze things , as that's what sports gambling is about, taking the info and making a decision , usually you can talk yourself into or out of a bet, lol, I usually pick underdogs as they pay better and sometimes the guys making odds leave some room to create action, things like nfl early week bets can pay a lot better. Yesterday for example took tfc to beat ny, in soccer, they won at like 3-1, then went to bet on Toronto raptors, the odds-$ $ got me to take Houston +7 at 2.75, they won outright anway, just saying how things can go, good luck !
Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: Odien on March 07, 2016, 06:57:35 PM I wish you good luck. If you manage to bet on low-risk bets, you are safe. What I recommend you is to bet what you have in safe bets (like the FC Barcelone) and then use only your profits to bet back.
Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 07, 2016, 07:54:55 PM Starts in 6 minutes, Estoril 1 win in last 8 away matches, Rio ave 0 losses in last 5 home matches, taking Rio DNB @1.44:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/fba46c7V2xYQkpvSjJoMnZYekwwbkFEa0cyQT09/r/595422/ (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/fba46c7V2xYQkpvSjJoMnZYekwwbkFEa0cyQT09/r/595422/) http://us.soccerway.com/matches/2016/03/07/portugal/portuguese-liga-/rio-ave-fc/gd-estoril-praia/2068547/ * Rio 1-3 Estoril: surprising result as Rio's defense was extremely poor. Back to the drawing board... Profit is (-0.002 BTC) Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 07, 2016, 09:48:27 PM Vekic holds a 1-0 H2H against Mestach, which was a 2-0 victory. Mestach has lost her last three matches in a row. Their last meeting was also on the same surface type (hard court).
http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1414848 (http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1414848) (Argentina premier league split into two conference zones): Tigre are second worst team in ARG Premier Zona1, and Tucuman are the third best team in ARG Premier Zona2, so Tucuman's quality should be much better than Tigre. They rarely play each other, playing only 3 times, and have not met in 6 years, but the results of Tucuman show they have achieved much more this season, and I look for them to outperform a lesser team. http://us.soccerway.com/matches/2016/03/07/argentina/primera-division/club-atletico-tigre/club-atletico-tucuman/2182975 (http://us.soccerway.com/matches/2016/03/07/argentina/primera-division/club-atletico-tigre/club-atletico-tucuman/2182975) I am risking 0.001 on these two results combined @3.324 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/525e566OGdkRlZpYndUbHNYVmFBOVpOaXpUUT09/r/595422/ (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/525e566OGdkRlZpYndUbHNYVmFBOVpOaXpUUT09/r/595422/) * Tucuman already down 0-4 Tigre. I am not doing very well so far in this challenge. Profit is (-0.003 BTC) Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 08, 2016, 12:12:47 AM NHL: Philadelphia flyers have lost 14 of 18 against Tampa Bay since 2010-11 season. The odds on this match though are nearly even, despite Tampa bay being on a roll winning its last 9 games in a row. Flyers are at home, and are coming off a 6-0 win. It seems the odds are too good to be true on Tampa, so risking 0.001 on Philadelphia @2.07 odds:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/ea9b306YXpHeGU4eFBoNjRVd1NyMmhQMSttQT09/r/595422/ (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/ea9b306YXpHeGU4eFBoNjRVd1NyMmhQMSttQT09/r/595422/) http://www.flashscore.com/match/dYGfTU7r/#match-summary (http://www.flashscore.com/match/dYGfTU7r/#match-summary) Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 08, 2016, 01:42:09 AM Yes MKR, I was just looking at simple stats, not having followed their progress through time. I am just trying to experiment with betting, and it is not working out yet. What I am learning so far is my imagined quality and consistency of the sides I have bet is not matching up with the reality of their performances. I am wrong in how I am evaluating the strength of teams, and need to change my thought process and attitude.
I'm also aware that in a short run of games anything random can happen... for example Tigre beating Tucuman 5-0 is quite a spectacular result today:http://canchallena.lanacion.com.ar/1877560-tigre-atletico-tucuman (http://canchallena.lanacion.com.ar/1877560-tigre-atletico-tucuman) In the end I need to learn to be more calculated. My goal is to figure out how to form stronger, more accurate opinions, and question my thought process along the way. BTW I love your suggestion to specialize in a league. Overextending yourself can be bad, yet at the same time I'm conflicted as I wouldn't want to limit betting opportunities. What does it take to really stay on top of a league? I need to figure out an answer to this question. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 08, 2016, 04:06:41 AM NCAAB: BYU averages 83.6 points per game, and Gonzaga averages 79.3 points per game.
Yet their last two meetings they have held eachother much lower: 2/27/16 GON 71-68: line for total was 155.5, ended 139 1/14/16 BYU 69-68 GON: line for total was 162.5, ended 137 For today's game the total is at 150... still too high? BYU plays an uptempo style with a lot of three point attempts. Gonzaga has good 3pt shot defense, better defense in general. Gonzaga has held 12 straight opponents under 70 points. The game is a TV game on ESPN2 and is being played on a neutral court at Orleans Las Vegas. The total for the game opened at 151.5 and is down to 150. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of BYU's last 12 games when playing Gonzaga. I'm predicting that since it is a big game on ESPN2, and in Vegas, it's assumed people are betting on the favorite Gonzaga -3 and the over 150.5 total. Their last two meetings this year were only decided by three points, could've gone either way, yet the total was off by over 15 points both times this year! I'm assuming the total is inflated again, and am risking 0.002 BTC on the under 150.5 @1.98 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/0ebaa0cVkFQTDZKaXNSQlUzR3kzbVRWSmJEQT09/r/595422 (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/0ebaa0cVkFQTDZKaXNSQlUzR3kzbVRWSmJEQT09/r/595422) http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400870250 (http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400870250) * O/U line for first half was 71... and they scored 94 points in the first half. 94 points! Projected total for the game is now 184! Again, I am very wrong. The lines for the totals are so inaccurate; this is interesting at least. I need to learn how to calculate totals as an experiment and compare to the existing lines. Also I found out Nitrogen Sports does not provide 2nd half totals on NCAA basketball games (also NBA). Why don't they? Is there a reason? profit (-0.004 BTC) Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: Mist on March 08, 2016, 04:10:31 AM NCAAB: BYU averages 83.6 points per game, and Gonzaga averages 79.3 points per game. As someone that follows a good bit of basketball, that's a solid bet. GL with that.Yet their last two meetings they have held eachother much lower: 2/27/16 GON 71-68: line for total was 155.5, ended 139 1/14/16 BYU 69-68 GON: line for total was 162.5, ended 137 For today's game the total is at 150... still too high? BYU plays an uptempo style with a lot of three point attempts. Gonzaga has good 3pt shot defense, better defense in general. Gonzaga has held 12 straight opponents under 70 points. The game is a TV game on ESPN2 and is being played on a neutral court at Orleans Las Vegas. The total for the game opened at 151.5 and is down to 150. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of BYU's last 12 games when playing Gonzaga. I'm predicting that since it is a big game on ESPN2, and in Vegas, it's assumed people are betting on the (rightful) favorite Gonzaga -3 and the over 150.5 total. Their last two meetings this year were only decided by three points, they were close contests, but again the total was off by over 15 points both times this year! I am assuming this trend continues, and am risking 0.002 BTC on the under 150.5 @1.98 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/0ebaa0cVkFQTDZKaXNSQlUzR3kzbVRWSmJEQT09/r/595422/ (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/0ebaa0cVkFQTDZKaXNSQlUzR3kzbVRWSmJEQT09/r/595422/) Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 08, 2016, 06:46:34 AM Tennis live bet: Langer is 7-0 H2H against Krawietz, and today prematch Langer ml was ~1.4 odds.
He just lost the first set to Krawietz, but considering he has not lost to Krawietz in 7 matches I like his chances with the odds @2.65. http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1415010 (http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1415010) Risking 0.0015 BTC on Nils Langer ml @2.65 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/84c7fc9VXpTODlNdTg2VjhlTFpSQ0ZPTjZudz09/r/595422/ (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/84c7fc9VXpTODlNdTg2VjhlTFpSQ0ZPTjZudz09/r/595422/) * Langer did not care very much in the second set, and didn't appear to give an honest effort. I guess there was somewhere else he wanted to be instead of this small Chinese tournament. At this rate I will get to 1 negative BTC in no time. Don't go chasing waterfalls... Profit (-0.0055 BTC) ** After further investigation this was the first match Langer had played in over 21 days. In his last match he retired down 4-2 in the first set. This should have been a gigantic warning sign! He retired in his last match, and couldn't make it out of the first set. There is no explanation of his reason for retiring. Wait, it gets better... Langer's last match: 13.02.2016, Wroclaw challenger, 1st Round qualifying, Langer- 4-2 first set, retired http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1407187 (http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1407187) After this match he played the challenger match in China (Zhuhai) that I bet on and lost in the first round. Go back one year: 14.02.2015, Wroclaw challenger, 1st Round qualifying, Langer retired http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1282831 After this he played two challenger matches in China (Guangzhou, Shenzhen) and lost both in the first round. Weird how similar the results are, and I'm not entirely sure what they mean. It is super interesting to think about player motivation. Maybe there are times of the year, areas of the world, or certain tournaments where a player is more likely to retire, tank, lose on purpose for various reasons. If a player retired in their last match be wary of betting on them. Are they healthy, are they motivated, how can you even know? Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: LarryHocks on March 08, 2016, 09:46:24 AM You must be really careful. Losing is much easier than win so that is not good. You must play with small amounts.
That is the only good option. And I hope that more people will also realize that they lose more money than they win money in gambling. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: OneHash on March 09, 2016, 10:44:58 AM If you're looking for high odds give our website a try. Not only odds tend to be higher than anywhere else in some cases but also we grant 10% bonus to your winnings if you decide to share the bet on Facebook.
Tell us what you think if you do bet. ;) https://www.onehash.com/# Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: FrueGreads on March 09, 2016, 12:50:05 PM I truly believe that it is possible to win from sports betting. If not I would not be running a tipster competition in the forum. We are in the fifth month now, and we keep seeing proof that it is possible to make good profit from it. The only problem I see here is the starting bankroll. Like you said there is no margin for error. I believe in bankroll management is a key aspect to be able to profit, that is one of the reasons why we have a 5% max bet stake size in our competition.
In your case with just 0.001, you can't do that, so it will be hard I think. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: vendetahome on March 09, 2016, 03:31:35 PM Can I turn 0.001 BTC into 1 BTC by betting on sports? It is a simple question I am looking to answer by running a fun experiment. More specifically: is it possible to consistently win at sports betting? At the time of this post 0.001 BTC is only $0.42 and it will not hurt at all to lose this amount. Whether I fail or succeed doesn't matter, it's about the knowledge gained in the process. I will try to update my progress weekly. If you are interested in attempting this challenge join me on this journey! Who can't afford to lose 0.001 BTC? My investigation begins with the belief that it is possible to gain profit by sports betting. From what little I have read on the topic how I think I should approach this: 1. Figure out which side is more likely to win. How? Follow a betting system/strategy, create a simple prediction model, and follow other knowledgeable tipsters picks in areas I do not follow. 2. Get the best possible odds on every wager. Compare odds between bookmakers, and pay attention to timing when bets are placed during the day/week to get the best possible odds. 3. Look out for errors on posted odds/lines, and look for scalping/arbitrage/sure bet opportunities. Possibly lay off risk on bets by betting the other side using live betting once your team is up. 4. Track all wagers, graph results to know how you are doing, and learn/analyze what you are doing good and bad from past bets so you can adapt. 5. Adjust bet sizes to where you cannot lose everything from a bad string of results. I've read between 0.5% and 5% per bet, depending upon how confident/how much risk you want to take on. It seems to make sense to increase bet sizes when your bankroll grows, and decrease wager sizes when you are losing. It also makes sense if an event comes along that presents a unique opportunity where it's clear you have a large advantage that you should bet more on it. (These two ideas are kind of contradictory and I'm not sure how I feel about it.) 6. Take advantage of sportsbook bonus programs, promotions, and free bets. My first concern is the amount I am starting with: 0.001 BTC. All of the above makes sense if you have a large bankroll, but if you only have $0.43 it does not seem to make sense to be betting 1% of that per bet. I suppose it takes money to make money... and I suppose I am going to have to risk it all to start. This does not seem to be the smart thing to do. Many bitcoin sportsbooks have 0.001 as a minimum wager amount. I'm going to have to be ultra selective in what I choose to bet on. I'm going to have to figure out how to research a sporting event, what is important to pay attention to, and what is just noise... odds usually says you which team will win, but if you're sure thatit will be tie, like in football game, bet on tie not team and you should choose main games, like basketball and tennis, maybe soccer too, a lot of games each week so you always will have where to bet Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 10, 2016, 03:21:32 AM NHL: The LA Kings are the lowest scoring team in the Western Conference, and second lowest scoring team in all the NHL, scoring an average of 4.8 goals per match. The Washington Captials have had their last 5 games in a row go under 5.5 goals.
WSH goalie HOLTBY: 2.28 GAA, and LA goalie QUICK: 2.24 GAA. I expect there to be few goals in the match, so I am risking 0.001 BTC on under 4.5 goals @2.59 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/ee2b477NDBZTkwzSmFoWTJOR2h5WjhzQXdWZz09/r/595422/ (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/ee2b477NDBZTkwzSmFoWTJOR2h5WjhzQXdWZz09/r/595422/) http://www.flashscore.com/match/Q5b9szoq/#match-summary (http://www.flashscore.com/match/Q5b9szoq/#match-summary) * LA Kings opened the first period quickly scoring three goals. Holtby did not play well. The huge deficit changed the dynamic of the game, and Washington took more risks going forward. Somehow they came back from 0-3 in the third period with three goals of their own taking the game into OT. Both teams did not perform to their average past performance as they let in more goals. Maybe it is wrong of me to expect a player or team to perform to their average past performance. There has to be more of a range a team/player is expected to play in. I suppose I did not consider the range of possible performance, and the range of probable performance of both teams. What are a team's/player's limits? What are the capable of, what are they not capable of? These are questions I need to consider more. profit (-0.0065 btc) Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: hua_hui on March 10, 2016, 09:56:30 AM NHL: The LA Kings are the lowest scoring team in the Western Conference, and second lowest scoring team in all the NHL, scoring an average of 4.8 goals per match. The Washington Captials have had their last 5 games in a row go under 5.5 goals. WSH goalie HOLTBY: 2.28 GAA, and LA goalie QUICK: 2.24 GAA. I expect there to be few goals in the match, so I am risking 0.001 BTC on under 4.5 goals @2.59 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/ee2b477NDBZTkwzSmFoWTJOR2h5WjhzQXdWZz09/r/595422/ (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/ee2b477NDBZTkwzSmFoWTJOR2h5WjhzQXdWZz09/r/595422/) http://www.flashscore.com/match/Q5b9szoq/#match-summary (http://www.flashscore.com/match/Q5b9szoq/#match-summary) very reasonable sounded. i am very interested in this match. hope that things will turn out well for u. keep an eye on this. gd luck. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 10, 2016, 01:42:09 PM Soccer (Romania, Cupa Ligii): Concordia has only scored one goal in its last 4 games, and are just in terrible form. In addition Dinamo Bucuresti has held a dominant record against Concordia as well (9 wins, 3 draws, and only 1 loss). Betting 0.001 BTC on Dinamo Bucuresti:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/dad2712cjR4RWZsLzZRbERraVFFV0dHY3NFZz09/r/595422/ (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/dad2712cjR4RWZsLzZRbERraVFFV0dHY3NFZz09/r/595422/) http://www.flashscore.com/match/SYfojg0j/#match-summary (http://www.flashscore.com/match/SYfojg0j/#match-summary) * Concordia is up 3-0. What happened? Concordia was more efficient, scored 3 goals on only 7 attempts on goal. Concordia/Dinamo had equal possession (51-49), Dinamo slightly more shots on goal attempted (7-12), Dinamo had many more corners (1-9), yet Concordia had 5 saves on goal, and Dinamo had 0 saves. These stats do not do a good enough job at explaining how Concordia achieved this result. I don't know what happened, and I don't understand how I can gain an understanding of what happened only from the stats on flashscore. There is so much that happens during a game that is not recorded. What is important that isn't being recorded? Then, looking at what is actually recorded, the stats can sometimes show what happened, yet other times they can be downright unimportant or misleading. Even if they are perfectly good, if I don't correctly interpret what the numbers mean then I'm in trouble. Something is going terribly wrong in how I am analyzing soccer matches. I need to think about what I am doing wrong, and clearly identify it so I can at least begin to change how I am going about things. profit (-0.0075 BTC) Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: zeaderza on March 10, 2016, 01:42:48 PM I follow you.I like this type of challenge from 0.001 btc to 1 btc or other amount.
I think you use easymoney with high oods. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 10, 2016, 03:38:29 PM I think it's essential to watch actual matches live, sometimes you can feel in your gut if certain player or team can beat the other if you watched them long enough before, no stats will give you that. I agree when watching a sport sometimes you can just intuitively see things. Sometimes you can get better odds than you would have had prematch. You can see how the players are actually performing on the day as opposed to guessing. I've not tried live betting much yet. Maybe I will experiment with it more. I see that Nitrogen Sports is great for betting prematch, but has limited live betting options. Other sites like Direct Bet, BetCoin, and CloudBet seem to have more options during play. Anybody: what is the best BTC sportsbook for live betting? On the flip side one nice thing about betting is you don't have to always watch the game. If you are betting many, many games it might not be possible to watch, or you might not have access to a live stream of the event. It might even be not interesting to watch. You don't like the sport, the game's not competitive, you have more important things to do with your time, but hey it's still possible to take a position on a game where you believe the odds are favorable and get paid if you are correct. While watching a game I would be concerned about errors in short term decision making, emotions playing a part of that. When you're watching a tennis match and identifying with a player, or a display of skill they just put on, maybe it's possible to be blinded and take an unreasonable position. Games change so dynamically with seconds being the difference between goal and near miss. If you are caught in heat of the moment, and asking yourself "is this the right time to place my wager?", you really need to know what you are doing, analyze the situation now, analyze if the odds are favorable now, predict what you think is going to happen in the near future with the game situation/odds--all of this almost instantly before the next game changing event affects the odds again. In other words you have less time to think. Time could be your enemy. Every second the odds are changing as a match progresses. Whether they are changing in your favor or not has to be repeatedly assessed. When should you close out your position/hedge and guarantee a certain loss or profit, and when should you let the bet ride until the conclusion of the event? It just gets so complex as you're working against time... well, I guess it only gets complex if you make it complex. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: shanem on March 10, 2016, 03:58:03 PM 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC challenge is extremely difficult. You need to win 10 straight games at 2.00 odds in a row and use all your capital + winning to make it to 1 BTC. If you can win 10 straight games in a row at 2.00 odds consistently, you will become very very rich.
Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: CryptoBjorn on March 10, 2016, 05:50:01 PM 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC challenge is extremely difficult. You need to win 10 straight games at 2.00 odds in a row and use all your capital + winning to make it to 1 BTC. If you can win 10 straight games in a row at 2.00 odds consistently, you will become very very rich. Yes indeed. But you need to have play really safe and that is hard. You will always lose more money than you win money.So you must be smart to do that. And maybe also be very lucky. I hope that you can make it possible. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 10, 2016, 06:57:18 PM Tennis: The majority of Yanina Wickmayer's matches are on hard court (174-111 hard only record). Today she's playing vs Polona Hercog who plays the majority of her matches on clay court (200-79 clay only record). Yet when you look at Hercog's hard court history you find she does not win win nearly as many matches--less than 50% (85-92 hc record).
They have never played each other before, but today they are playing in the first round of WTA Indian Wells. I am predicting Wickmayer will win because she has performed well on hard court in the past, while Hercog simply has not. Betting 0.001 BTC on Wickmayer @1.548 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/3873b04K2p1R2ZnSEFnWkRaU2MrUG9QVk8wQT09/r/595422/ (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/3873b04K2p1R2ZnSEFnWkRaU2MrUG9QVk8wQT09/r/595422/) http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1415623 (http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1415623) * Wickmayer won 2-1. She lost the first set 0-6, then won the next two 6-4, 6-4. I wonder why she lost the first set 0-6? Maybe tennis players can conserve energy by conceding a set when down. Is it worth holding a serve in a losing set? I'm not familiar with the strategy, if it is one, and I wonder what players employ this strategy often? profit (-0.00695 BTC) Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 10, 2016, 08:42:23 PM I hope for you that Wickmayer wins, but if you watched those girls play you'd know that this match is total coin-flip, odds should be 1.85:1.85 or something. Lol, ok i'll stop annoying you with my stupid comments. I don't mind it at all! The whole reason I made a thread instead of just a word document is to hopefully have conversation, and learn about what I'm doing right/wrong and share it. First off a coin flip is 50/50. A bookmaker would not give you 50/50 odds on the flip. Bookmakers charge you an amount for taking your bet. This commission for running the sportsbook is called the vigorish, vig, or juice. Instead of the coinflip being 2.00/2.00 odds the sportsbook will charge 10% vig and the odds will become 1.9/1.9. We want to bet at sportsbooks with the best odds to get the highest payout possible on our bet. If the same odds are being offered on an event across all sportsbooks (which is not the case usually) then the best odds will be the place with the least vig. Since there is not an even amount of money being bet at all books, and books adjust their lines independently (some being slower or quicker to adjust for changes in odds), there's often a huge difference in the odds between events. Anyway, considering all this above... if Wick-Hercog was 50-50 the true odds would be 2.00/2.00. If a sportsbook had a 5% vig then it'd be 1.95/1.95. Looking at the available odds prematch for Wick-Hercog: http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/usa/wta-indian-wells/hercog-polona-wickmayer-yanina-trfpSjn3/ (http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/usa/wta-indian-wells/hercog-polona-wickmayer-yanina-trfpSjn3/) At Pinnacle Wick opened around @1.61 and closed @1.55; Hercog opened @2.45 and closed @2.61. If the true odds of either winning was 50/50, then Hercog would be the better play hands down. Bet Hercog every time if this is the case, and in the long run over many games this would be profitable. The whole damn tricky thing is determining what the true odds of an event occurring are. Wick-Hercog can't be 50/50. Tennis can be a sport where it's one person versus another, so it should be easier to examine than team sports. If two people are equal in every way then they will be 50/50 to win. The problem is that no one's equal, and their abilities change over time, and through different conditions. People have flaws, advantages and disadvantages. I suppose you would have to think about every possible variable in a match, and then test to see if those variables really matter in the outcome. I know that people create models to predict the outcome of a match, but I don't really know what goes into making one. It would be cool to learn how to make one, and check if it is effective or not. If you made one you would need to feed it data all of the time that you get from somewhere. It would be a huge hassle to manually enter it all so you would need some way of automatically getting it, or hiring someone to get it. At some point the model is going to be like the mouse--if you give a mouse a cookie, it's going to ask for some milk as well. Then he'll ask for a straw. He'll finish and ask for a napkin, then a mirror to check if he has a milk mustache... the last thing you need is a model with a milk mustache. Irregardless of potential challenges it's something that would be awesome to look into. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: Gina83 on March 10, 2016, 08:43:09 PM first I want to say GOOD LUCK!! anything's possible!!
but of course u gotta be lucky though.. skills is a must... but luck is what need to win. I won about 0.004 mbtc from 20 freespins at betchain, awhile back... about 3-4 months ago.. with that 0.004, I turned it into 24. btc. but of course that was from playing slots. so I believe that its possible, when you're feeing lucky.. ;D Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 11, 2016, 01:00:53 AM NHL: Minnesota has won their last two games with Edmonton this year. Edmonton is the bottom team in the Western Conference of the NHL. Minnesota's Kuemper 2.28 GAA at home, Oilers Talbot outstanding 1.19 GAA streak over 5 recent games (with exception of Sharks game), but against Minnesota Talbot is 0-2 and 4.13 GAA. I am betting against Talbot playing in Minnesota, and I figure he will fail to win in Minnesota yet again if not because his performance, because of his team. Betting 0.00155 BTC on the Minnesota Wild @1.561 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/8b5c759MDNLOGF2dXJtUlRZQ3c3cGtMTW9Sdz09/r/595422/ (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/8b5c759MDNLOGF2dXJtUlRZQ3c3cGtMTW9Sdz09/r/595422/)
http://www.flashscore.com/match/jaUDZf6l/#match-summary (http://www.flashscore.com/match/jaUDZf6l/#match-summary) * Minnesota lost a close 1-2 game. Allowing only 2 goals is a great job by Kuemper. Minnesota and the Devils had about even shots (30-25), and about even blocked shots (15-18). Minnesota dominated faceoffs (40-15). Minnesota only committed 2 penalties to the Devil's 4, but Minnesota went 0-4 on the power play. The game was tied until about 7 minutes left when the Devils actually won a faceoff which quickly turned into a 2v2 iso into a good shot beating the goalie. Minnesota had a power play directly after but their offense was apparently asleep tonight. Ultimately their offense failed to click against a team that is not very good, if you look at their 5v5 stats the Oilers are 3rd from the bottom: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?db=201516&sit=5v5&disp=1&sortdir=DESC&sort=GFPCT (http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?db=201516&sit=5v5&disp=1&sortdir=DESC&sort=GFPCT) So what other reasons are there for Minnesota losing aside from simply being outscored? I'm not sure. I need to think about what affects the outcome of a hockey game. I don't know the players, so I don't know if the lineups who started are better or worse than any other day. If anyone is unhealthy or injured I just did not know. I know that Minnesota is barely out of a playoff spot, and they do have motivation to win games to get into that spot. I'm having trouble understanding this result still. I guess NHL hockey teams are close to each other in overall skill, and I suppose that any team can beat another on any night. That's almost giving in though and saying oh it's just random results, it's the way the puck bounces, roulette on ice... scratch that jazz. How often do NHL teams win this year? (Warning, this is painful to read, was just trying to put down my thought process, skip to bold for conclusion.) So far this season home teams win 42% of the time, draws happen 23% of the time, and away teams win 35% of the time. Right now the best record is the Washington Capitals who are 49-18, so they win 73% of the time. The bottom of the standings is the Winnipeg Jets at 27-40, so they win 40% of the time. Tonight's bet Wild-Oilers, what are their records? Wild are 31-37, so they win 48% of the time. Oliers are 27-43, so they win 38.5% of the time... and these stats are including overtime. Let's look at regulation time: Minnesota is 29-27 in regulation--(win 42.6%), and have 12 draws (17% of the time) (lose 40.4%). Oilers are 16-36 in regulation--(win 22%), and have 18 draws (25% of the time) (lose 53%). The prematch odds on the game were Wild @1.92, Draw @3.97, Oilers @3.74. The overround is 2.13% so implied probabilities for regulation time are: Wild (49.49%), Draw (26.03%), Oilers (24.48%). The implied odds are very similar to their season averages. It seems that to take the Draw and Oilers there is a significantly better chance of this happening according to their season averages: as we looked up above, Wild win in regulation 42.6% of the time, so the draw and opposing team win 57.4% of the time. The implied chance of draw and Oilers is 50.11% which is 7.29% less likely than the season average (57.4%). If the current season average is truly an accurate indicator of Minnesota's performance then there's a +7.29% chance of Draw and Oilers occurring that is not accounted for correctly. Draw and Oilers has value as a bet because there's a greater chance of it occurring (according to the season average) than the sportsbook odds suggest... possibly we should have bet that instead! Nhl wins info from http://www.betexplorer.com/hockey/usa/nhl/ (http://www.betexplorer.com/hockey/usa/nhl/) profit (-0.0085 BTC) Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: niagwai on March 11, 2016, 03:36:50 AM NHL: NJ Devils Backup Keith Kinkaid has allowed 10 goals in his last two starts. In NJ Devils last 5 games they are 1-4, and all 4 losses were by more than two goals. I'm betting against this goalie Kinkaid, betting 0.001 BTC on Sharks -1.5 goals @2.25 odds:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/951a193SEZqMlJyNUVGMmpPaHRQeVRmdVphUT09/r/595422/ (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/951a193SEZqMlJyNUVGMmpPaHRQeVRmdVphUT09/r/595422/) http://www.flashscore.com/match/YV1HuEFe/#match-summary (http://www.flashscore.com/match/YV1HuEFe/#match-summary) * Sharks already down 0-2. What's happening? For starters the Sharks are not scoring. Sharks-Devils shots (26-15), Faceoffs (22-23), and the Devils scored in the 2nd period with only 3 shots, and the Devils scored in the 3rd period with only 5 shots. They've made 2 goals in 8 shots, pretty efficient. I don't understand how the game is unfolding and I need to look more into NHL stats. What NHL advanced stats are important to understanding games? There is one thing I did just notice: This year... Devils win 51% of their games OT included Devils win 48.5% of their games at home OT included Devils win 51.6% of their games on the road OT included Sharks win 60% of their games OT included Sharks win 45.5% of their games at home OT included Sharks win 70% of their games on the road OT included http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-home-and-away-winning-percentages/2015/ (http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-home-and-away-winning-percentages/2015/) Devils win more of their away games than Sharks win home games... Sharks seem to perform worse at home. Why, I have no clue. Devils win 51.6% of their games on the road... Sharks win 45.5% of their games at home. The prematch odds OT Included were Sharks @1.39, Devils @3.26. So according to their season win %s the Devils should have been the play. I guess the NJ backup goalie Kinkaid is having a good game, and I was mislead by him giving up 10 goals in his last two starts. He's going on a shutout right now. I don't know about his surrounding cast, if they were different for those games. I was wrong about him and the Devils. This is not something that happens often... the announcer just said it's been TWENTY YEARS since the Devils last shut out the Sharks. I need to make serious adjustments. profit (-0.0095 BTC) Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: martinacar on March 11, 2016, 09:26:04 AM NCAAB: BYU averages 83.6 points per game, and Gonzaga averages 79.3 points per game. As someone that follows a good bit of basketball, that's a solid bet. GL with that.Yet their last two meetings they have held eachother much lower: 2/27/16 GON 71-68: line for total was 155.5, ended 139 1/14/16 BYU 69-68 GON: line for total was 162.5, ended 137 For today's game the total is at 150... still too high? BYU plays an uptempo style with a lot of three point attempts. Gonzaga has good 3pt shot defense, better defense in general. Gonzaga has held 12 straight opponents under 70 points. The game is a TV game on ESPN2 and is being played on a neutral court at Orleans Las Vegas. The total for the game opened at 151.5 and is down to 150. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of BYU's last 12 games when playing Gonzaga. I'm predicting that since it is a big game on ESPN2, and in Vegas, it's assumed people are betting on the (rightful) favorite Gonzaga -3 and the over 150.5 total. Their last two meetings this year were only decided by three points, they were close contests, but again the total was off by over 15 points both times this year! I am assuming this trend continues, and am risking 0.002 BTC on the under 150.5 @1.98 odds: https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/0ebaa0cVkFQTDZKaXNSQlUzR3kzbVRWSmJEQT09/r/595422/ (https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/0ebaa0cVkFQTDZKaXNSQlUzR3kzbVRWSmJEQT09/r/595422/) If you dont play safe and than you can lose a lot of money and that will be not good, it will be all wasted. Title: Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting] Post by: Nameless Coin on March 11, 2016, 04:08:15 PM It is hard to get that. I think it is impossible and that cant happen. You will always lose more money than you win money.
Or you must be very smart and lucky, but that happens not that often so it will not possible I think. |
