Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: twolifeinexile on January 24, 2013, 08:03:15 PM



Title: A correction is happening.
Post by: twolifeinexile on January 24, 2013, 08:03:15 PM
Price touched 19.2~ and now come back to 16, 20% in one day! What a ride !


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: Kupsi on January 24, 2013, 08:06:55 PM
16.71
13%.


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: CurbsideProphet on January 24, 2013, 08:08:59 PM
Just goes to show how incredibly volatile the market still is despite the relative stability over the past few months.  We're still very much in the "wild west" period, which is fun but also why you never put down more than you're willing to lose and be able to sleep at night. 


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: twolifeinexile on January 24, 2013, 08:15:21 PM
16.71
13%.
I see 16.2~ for a moment.


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: jwzguy on January 24, 2013, 08:16:54 PM
Well that...de-escalated quickly.


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: Draino on January 24, 2013, 08:21:19 PM
price stablized at ~13 for a while then rocketed to ~19 and now i bet it gets cut in the middle to ~16

isn't that similar to what happened last time there was a long sideways period?


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: conspirosphere.tk on January 24, 2013, 08:23:29 PM
It was about time.


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: BIGMERVE on January 24, 2013, 08:25:49 PM
Watching mtgox live now is more exciting than live sports.


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: casascius on January 24, 2013, 08:26:50 PM
I think it'll be back up.

As the price rises, tons of people come out of the woodwork and say "damn, I was thinking of buying bitcoins when they were cheap and I really missed out.  If it goes back down a bit, I'm interested in some coins."   (they say this directly to me, e.g. facebook, text messages, etc. and I think it's fair to say it's systemic and worldwide.)

Now the price retreats a bit, and these same people are saying, "OK, it's on its way down, it's probably not going to go any lower than $13 since it sat there for so long, so now's my best chance."  They're gathering their funds right now and figuring out how to get them into bitcoins.

All their funds show up over the next week or two, they buy and hold coins.  The price goes up and stays there.


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: twolifeinexile on January 24, 2013, 08:29:36 PM
16.00 is happening


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: CurbsideProphet on January 24, 2013, 08:34:37 PM
I think it'll be back up.

As the price rises, tons of people come out of the woodwork and say "damn, I was thinking of buying bitcoins when they were cheap and I really missed out.  If it goes back down a bit, I'm interested in some coins."   (they say this directly to me, e.g. facebook, text messages, etc. and I think it's fair to say it's systemic and worldwide.)

Now the price retreats a bit, and these same people are saying, "OK, it's on its way down, it's probably not going to go any lower than $13 since it sat there for so long, so now's my best chance."  They're gathering their funds right now and figuring out how to get them into bitcoins.

All their funds show up over the next week or two, they buy and hold coins.  The price goes up and stays there.


You could be right but do these people have the significant amount of fiat to move the market?  It seems more likely there are big players here that pumped and dumped hoping to lure in more with that very psychology.  In all fairness, my short-term targets have been far off so what the heck do I know  ;D


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: CoinDiver on January 24, 2013, 08:36:47 PM
POP!


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: casascius on January 24, 2013, 08:40:55 PM
You could be right but do these people have the significant amount of fiat to move the market?

Yep.

Lots.

It's just a matter of when.


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: Kupsi on January 24, 2013, 08:42:30 PM
16.71
13%.
I see 16.2~ for a moment.

I see 15.75
18%


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: CurbsideProphet on January 24, 2013, 08:43:07 PM
You could be right but do these people have the significant amount of fiat to move the market?

Yep.

Lots.

It's just a matter of when.

Interesting.  Thanks for sharing.  


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: Beta-coiner1 on January 24, 2013, 08:44:45 PM
You could be right but do these people have the significant amount of fiat to move the market?

Yep.

Lots.

It's just a matter of when.
I actually think you're right.I am not sure if anyone has actually looked at the Gox via live but some of the money you saw during the trading was huge.The money IS still there irregardless of if someone sells or not.What an individual might be trying to do is Sell while it was high effect the market with a huge dump then buy BTC at a lower price while still profiting.


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: bb113 on January 24, 2013, 08:45:31 PM

Quote
I think it'll be back up.

As the price rises, tons of people come out of the woodwork and say "damn, I was thinking of buying bitcoins when they were cheap and I really missed out.  If it goes back down a bit, I'm interested in some coins."   (they say this directly to me, e.g. facebook, text messages, etc. and I think it's fair to say it's systemic and worldwide.)

Now the price retreats a bit, and these same people are saying, "OK, it's on its way down, it's probably not going to go any lower than $13 since it sat there for so long, so now's my best chance."  They're gathering their funds right now and figuring out how to get them into bitcoins.

All their funds show up over the next week or two, they buy and hold coins.  The price goes up and stays there.


You could be right but do these people have the significant amount of fiat to move the market?

Yep.

Lots.

It's just a matter of when.

Interesting.  Thanks for sharing.  


Whether on purpose or not this is definitely occurring:
Quote
Variable ratio schedule (VR) – a reinforcement schedule in which the number of responses necessary to produce reinforcement varies from trial to trial. A VR schedule of VR10 means that if one averaged the number of reinforcers, on the average every tenth desired response was reinforced.

    Lab example: VR4" = first pellet delivered on 2 bar presses, second pellet delivered on 6 bar presses, third pellet 4 bar presses (2 + 6 + 4 = 12; 12/3= 4 bar presses to receive pellet).
    Real-world example: slot machines (because, though the probability of hitting the jackpot is constant, the number of lever presses needed to hit the jackpot is variable).


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schedule_of_reinforcement#Schedules


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: Rassah on January 24, 2013, 08:46:57 PM
Glad it came back down. I'd rather have it be where it's supposed to, than hovering around in a possible bubble state, no one knowing when it will pop.


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: EuroTrash on January 24, 2013, 08:52:52 PM
Naj. Look at the volume. More than two millions USD moved in a day if I read it right. Wow. I like to believe that this market has drawn the attention of one financial wolf whose pockets are deep enough. To play the pump and dump game at such scale.

Damn I'm out of popcorn. And I wish I had money sitting on Gox.
:-)


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: kgo on January 24, 2013, 08:56:59 PM
You also need to pay attention to the depth to tell if it's a correction or volatility.  Right now it would only take 20,000 BTC sold to go back to 19.  Way more than that was bought on the ride up of the past few days.  Depth chart looks like a half-pipe now, which means it doesn't take a lot of money or bitcoins to get wild swings without serious support or resistance.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: Richy_T on January 24, 2013, 08:57:43 PM
Glad it came back down. I'd rather have it be where it's supposed to, than hovering around in a possible bubble state, no one knowing when it will pop.

+1. Stability is what is needed. Steady as she grows...


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: XxionxX on January 24, 2013, 10:09:18 PM
Watching mtgox live now is more exciting than live sports.

Yeah, down from $19 to $15.6X, and now back up to 17.30 again!? Roller coaster ride!


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: minorman on January 24, 2013, 10:14:25 PM
Nothing ever goes straight up (or down). Its always a sawtooth.
The huge dump down in the 15.xx level on mtGox today is a really, really, healthy sign IMhO.


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: cypherdoc on January 24, 2013, 10:18:21 PM
Nothing ever goes straight up (or down). Its always a sawtooth.
The huge dump down in the 15.xx level on mtGox today is a really, really, healthy sign IMhO.

very true.  the bull tries to buck off as many as it can on the way up.


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: twolifeinexile on January 24, 2013, 10:35:46 PM
Nothing ever goes straight up (or down). Its always a sawtooth.
The huge dump down in the 15.xx level on mtGox today is a really, really, healthy sign IMhO.

Could you elaborate? Why


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: mb300sd on January 24, 2013, 10:40:07 PM
Nothing ever goes straight up (or down). Its always a sawtooth.
The huge dump down in the 15.xx level on mtGox today is a really, really, healthy sign IMhO.

very true.  the bull tries to buck off as many as it can on the way up.

http://youtu.be/aA9kW2u0ZAQ


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: Cluster2k on January 24, 2013, 10:58:33 PM
It was about time too.  Rising more than 10% per day, every day was all the signs of a bubble waiting to pop.  Traders letting hubris get in the way of sound judgment.  Buying simply because other people are buying.  Exciting ride none the less.


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: goldlyre on January 25, 2013, 09:57:09 AM
I think it'll be back up.

As the price rises, tons of people come out of the woodwork and say "damn, I was thinking of buying bitcoins when they were cheap and I really missed out.  If it goes back down a bit, I'm interested in some coins."   (they say this directly to me, e.g. facebook, text messages, etc. and I think it's fair to say it's systemic and worldwide.)

Now the price retreats a bit, and these same people are saying, "OK, it's on its way down, it's probably not going to go any lower than $13 since it sat there for so long, so now's my best chance."  They're gathering their funds right now and figuring out how to get them into bitcoins.

All their funds show up over the next week or two, they buy and hold coins.  The price goes up and stays there.

Hi Mike, please have a look at this - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=137912.0


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: jl2012 on January 25, 2013, 10:39:14 AM
I think it'll be back up.

As the price rises, tons of people come out of the woodwork and say "damn, I was thinking of buying bitcoins when they were cheap and I really missed out.  If it goes back down a bit, I'm interested in some coins."   (they say this directly to me, e.g. facebook, text messages, etc. and I think it's fair to say it's systemic and worldwide.)

Now the price retreats a bit, and these same people are saying, "OK, it's on its way down, it's probably not going to go any lower than $13 since it sat there for so long, so now's my best chance."  They're gathering their funds right now and figuring out how to get them into bitcoins.

All their funds show up over the next week or two, they buy and hold coins.  The price goes up and stays there.

Hi Mike, please have a look at this - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=137912.0

You'd better use PM or have a new post in an appropriate section


Title: Re: A correction is happening.
Post by: johnyj on January 25, 2013, 12:51:47 PM
It's fun to look at the price movement, it shows the market is still very low on liquidity, but people's psychology has changed, many people want to buy at $12 level, I think one year ago many people wanted to buy at $5 level