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Title: 17 is the new 12 Post by: kokojie on January 25, 2013, 02:45:16 PM I believe 17 has became the new 12, price won't deviate much from 17 (+-2) and will stabilize at this level for a while.
Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: Mageant on January 25, 2013, 02:51:10 PM One thing I've learned about the Bitcoin price is that it's hard to predict.
Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: HDSolar on January 25, 2013, 03:08:59 PM I believe 17 has became the new 12, price won't deviate much from 17 (+-2) and will stabilize at this level for a while. I would tend to agree except when ASIC's hits (and it will some day :) ) but until then this is a good stopping point. It is almost like yesterday was a stress test of the system to see how much the market could handle, just an idea.Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: Desolator on January 25, 2013, 03:59:24 PM Seeing as how the block reward went from 50 to 25, 24 is the new 12. We're just not there yet and people selling off BTC while the price edges higher is delaying it. They really ought to keep it until 23-24-ish to make the most.
Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: notme on January 25, 2013, 05:19:06 PM Seeing as how the block reward went from 50 to 25, 24 is the new 12. We're just not there yet and people selling off BTC while the price edges higher is delaying it. They really ought to keep it until 23-24-ish to make the most. BTC must flow from weak hands to strong hands before higher prices can be sustained. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: thoughtfan on January 25, 2013, 05:41:36 PM Seeing as how the block reward went from 50 to 25, 24 is the new 12. We're just not there yet and people selling off BTC while the price edges higher is delaying it. They really ought to keep it until 23-24-ish to make the most. BTC must flow from weak hands to strong hands before higher prices can be sustained. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: notme on January 25, 2013, 05:44:43 PM Weak hands panic sell, strong hands look at the drop and either say 'meh' or wire funds to the exchanges if they haven't accumulated enough yet.
Weak hands are in it for short term profit, strong hands believe in bitcoin. It's not dog eat dog, it's bull gore pig. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: zby on January 25, 2013, 05:58:32 PM Weak hands panic sell, strong hands look at the drop and either say 'meh' or wire funds to the exchanges if they haven't accumulated enough yet. Weak hands are in it for short term profit, strong hands believe in bitcoin. It's not dog eat dog, it's bull gore pig. You sound like a sect. Somehow I don't feel weak for selling in 2011 Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: thoughtfan on January 25, 2013, 06:00:33 PM Weak hands panic sell, strong hands look at the drop and either say 'meh' or wire funds to the exchanges if they haven't accumulated enough yet. Thanks notme, I think I understand a bit better though the 'bull gore pig' is lost on me (and lost on google too)!Weak hands are in it for short term profit, strong hands believe in bitcoin. It's not dog eat dog, it's bull gore pig. Yet somehow still the 'strong' idea, like the 'courage' idea in the other thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138493.0) just don't sit right with me. In the OP of that one is the line 'You will need your courage far more than it will need your faith'. But I think a simple belief that there's a bloody good chance Bitcoin will have a significant role in the future of world finance means no courage or determination or strength is needed. People keep telling me I'm brave in holding onto my Bitcoin as it gets so high or as it plummets so deep (not that I've had to yet). Of course I enjoy a bit of excitement as I realise how much better off I am than had I left it in pounds but if and when it goes below what it was last week or even what I paid for it it still don't feel I can claim credit for being strong or brave. It's like someone telling me I'm brave not believing in god. It's really easy. It's not like I even have a choice. It's just what I believe and I act accordingly. All I can do is to try and remain open to arguments that I may be wrong in the fundamentals that underlie my belief, and if I'm persuaded by any or enough of them then my belief will change but courage? strength? Nah, not me :) ...And those who do sell? Maybe they're not weak either. They just have different beliefs and act accordingly. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: notme on January 25, 2013, 06:08:22 PM Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.
Google should know that one. My only point is that we can't move up while people who are unsure about higher prices hold the coins. Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: thoughtfan on January 25, 2013, 07:16:47 PM Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered. On that we are agreed :)Google should know that one. My only point is that we can't move up while people who are unsure about higher prices hold the coins. Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: lebing on January 25, 2013, 07:18:04 PM Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained. Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: zby on January 25, 2013, 07:46:01 PM Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained. Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands. Yeah - because selling makes you weak - be strong - hold your coins no matter what. That's the kind of argumentation I would expect from Madoff or some scientologist. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: Blazr on January 25, 2013, 07:51:20 PM I don't see it, most of the liquidity is gone, I predict large price swings ahead.
Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: notme on January 25, 2013, 07:54:45 PM Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained. Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands. Yeah - because selling makes you weak - be strong - hold your coins no matter what. That's the kind of argumentation I would expect from Madoff or some scientologist. It's not about selling.... it's about selling in the current situation. Weak hands panic sell, strong hands look at the drop and either say 'meh' or wire funds to the exchanges if they haven't accumulated enough yet. Weak hands are in it for short term profit, strong hands believe in bitcoin. It's not dog eat dog, it's bull gore pig. You sound like a sect. Somehow I don't feel weak for selling in 2011 I don't think you are weak for selling in 2011, the situation was quite different then. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: Jutarul on January 25, 2013, 07:58:27 PM Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained. Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands. Yeah - because selling makes you weak - be strong - hold your coins no matter what. That's the kind of argumentation I would expect from Madoff or some scientologist. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: notme on January 25, 2013, 08:06:07 PM http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stronghands.asp#axzz2J1Goy7FR Right, it's a short term profits vs long term investor (or consumer) thing... nothing to do with physical strength or courage. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: DeathAndTaxes on January 25, 2013, 08:12:54 PM Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained. Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands. Yeah - because selling makes you weak - be strong - hold your coins no matter what. That's the kind of argumentation I would expect from Madoff or some scientologist. Exactly. The actual price doesn't matter. It is the sentiment of the investor. Example of a weak hand. Someone too scared to buy into BTC and watched it rise from $10 to $15. The entire time was convinced it would crash to <$10 so they didn't want to buy. Finally due to the spike from $15 to $19 they buy in (capitulation buy). They don't really want to buy in at this price point but their short term plan has failed and they feel "forced" to buy in now or risk missing out on even more price appreciation. This hypothetical investor now has too much invested at too high of a price (relative to their own internal valuation). This investor is just looking for a quick spike to >$20 to sell for a profit. They are very likely to dump on any significant price movement upward which caps their gains however the larger risk is they are too long relative to their internal valuation and thus are very likely to panic sell if the price moves against them. Their impulse purchase, entry point, objective, and internal valuation all conspire to create a scenario where their upside potential is small and the downside risk is large. Example of a strong hand. Someone dollar cost averaged with multiple strategic buys between $10 and $15 over the course of several months. The investor believes long term the valuation should be north of $50 and thus $1 to $2 price moves are really irrelevant. While this investor may have a large nominal amount invested they don't "need" the funds and are psychologically prepared to suffer a unrealized loss for months of even years. They anticipate significant corrections and have undeployed capital ready to "buy on dips". The investor also accepts there is a non zero chance that the Bitcoin experiment will fail and this speculative investment will be completely worthless. This hypothetical investor has a strong hand. They are more likely to be buying on dips and selling some (but not all) on unrealistic spikes to continually improve their basis. Over time coins (and thus wealth) are more likely to move from weak hands to strong hands then strong hands to weak hands. While an individual investor with a weak hand can get lucky "just happened to buy at the right time" in the long run on average they will transfer their wealth to those with stronger hands. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: evoorhees on January 25, 2013, 08:22:43 PM Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained. Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands. Yeah - because selling makes you weak - be strong - hold your coins no matter what. That's the kind of argumentation I would expect from Madoff or some scientologist. Exactly. The actual price doesn't matter. It is the sentiment of the investor. Example of a weak shand. Someone too scared to buy into BTC and watched it rise from $10 to $15. The entire time was convinced it would crash to <$10 so they didn't want to buy. Finally due to the spike from $15 to $19 they buy in (capitulation buy). They don't really want to buy in at this price point but their short term plan has failed and they feel "forced" to buy in now or risk missing out on even more price appreciation. This hypothetical investor now has too much invested at too high of a price (relative to their own internal valuation). This investor is just looking for a quick spike to >$20 to sell for a profit. They are very likely to dump on any significant price movement upward which caps their gains however the larger risk is they are too long relative to their internal valuation and thus are very likely to panic sell if the price moves against them. Their impulse purchase, entry point, objective, and internal valuation all conspire to create a scenario where their upside potential is small and they have a large risk of selling in any downside correction. Example of a strong hand. Someone dollar cost averaged with multiple strategic buys between $10 and $15 over the course of months. The investor believes long term the valuation should be north of $50 and thus $1 to $2 price moves are really irrelevant. While this investor may have a large nominal amount invested they don't "need" the funds and are psychologically prepared to suffer a unrealized loss for months of even years. They anticipate significant corrections and have undeployed capital ready to "buy on dips". The investor also accepts there is a non zero chance that the Bitcoin experiment will fail and this speculative investment will be completely worthless. This hypothetical investor has a strong hand. They are more likely to be buying on dips and selling some (but not all) on unrealistic spikes to continually improve their basis. Over time coins (and thus wealth) are more likely to move from weak hands to strong hands. Wow, very well said! Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: Hexadecibel on January 25, 2013, 08:32:34 PM I would follow deathandtaxes on twitter
Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: SgtSpike on January 25, 2013, 08:35:13 PM I would follow deathandtaxes on twitter +1. Consistently the most logical writer here.Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: zby on January 25, 2013, 08:44:17 PM Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained. Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands. Yeah - because selling makes you weak - be strong - hold your coins no matter what. That's the kind of argumentation I would expect from Madoff or some scientologist. Exactly. The actual price doesn't matter. It is the sentiment of the investor. Example of a weak shand. Someone too scared to buy into BTC and watched it rise from $10 to $15. The entire time was convinced it would crash to <$10 so they didn't want to buy. Finally due to the spike from $15 to $19 they buy in (capitulation buy). They don't really want to buy in at this price point but their short term plan has failed and they feel "forced" to buy in now or risk missing out on even more price appreciation. This hypothetical investor now has too much invested at too high of a price (relative to their own internal valuation). This investor is just looking for a quick spike to >$20 to sell for a profit. They are very likely to dump on any significant price movement upward which caps their gains however the larger risk is they are too long relative to their internal valuation and thus are very likely to panic sell if the price moves against them. Their impulse purchase, entry point, objective, and internal valuation all conspire to create a scenario where their upside potential is small and they have a large risk of selling in any downside correction. Example of a strong hand. Someone dollar cost averaged with multiple strategic buys between $10 and $15 over the course of months. The investor believes long term the valuation should be north of $50 and thus $1 to $2 price moves are really irrelevant. While this investor may have a large nominal amount invested they don't "need" the funds and are psychologically prepared to suffer a unrealized loss for months of even years. They anticipate significant corrections and have undeployed capital ready to "buy on dips". The investor also accepts there is a non zero chance that the Bitcoin experiment will fail and this speculative investment will be completely worthless. This hypothetical investor has a strong hand. They are more likely to be buying on dips and selling some (but not all) on unrealistic spikes to continually improve their basis. Over time coins (and thus wealth) are more likely to move from weak hands to strong hands. Yeah - in the positive scenario he is a 'strong hand' in the negative one he is a 'bag holder'. All that rhetoric is just to manipulate people. It is all just probabilities. If you think it most probably will drop soon - then it is better to sell now - even if you think that some day in the future it will go up, because you can always buy back cheaper. And it is all symmetric - you know - you can also think about holding USD and selling it for bitcoins. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: thoughtfan on January 25, 2013, 09:41:02 PM Example of a weak shand. Someone too scared to buy into BTC and watched it rise from $10 to $15. The entire time was convinced it would crash to <$10 so they didn't want to buy. Finally due to the spike from $15 to $19 they buy in (capitulation buy). They don't really want to buy in at this price point but their short term plan has failed and they feel "forced" to buy in now or risk missing out on even more price appreciation. This hypothetical investor now has too much invested at too high of a price (relative to their own internal valuation). This investor is just looking for a quick spike to >$20 to sell for a profit. They are very likely to dump on any significant price movement upward which caps their gains however the larger risk is they are too long relative to their internal valuation and thus are very likely to panic sell if the price moves against them. Their impulse purchase, entry point, objective, and internal valuation all conspire to create a scenario where their upside potential is small and they have a large risk of selling in any downside correction. Example of a strong hand. Someone dollar cost averaged with multiple strategic buys between $10 and $15 over the course of months. The investor believes long term the valuation should be north of $50 and thus $1 to $2 price moves are really irrelevant. While this investor may have a large nominal amount invested they don't "need" the funds and are psychologically prepared to suffer a unrealized loss for months of even years. They anticipate significant corrections and have undeployed capital ready to "buy on dips". The investor also accepts there is a non zero chance that the Bitcoin experiment will fail and this speculative investment will be completely worthless. This hypothetical investor has a strong hand. They are more likely to be buying on dips and selling some (but not all) on unrealistic spikes to continually improve their basis. Over time coins (and thus wealth) are more likely to move from weak hands to strong hands. A massive thank you all in this thread for helping me 'get' this. It hadn't even crossed my mind that its derivation could have come from card games but the switch from seeing 'strong' as in how big the investor's balls are to what position they're playing from opens the door for me to an entirely new understanding. And this description from DeathAndTaxes is astoundingly clear. Whilst at first glance it may look like it is the indecisiveness of the player that makes them weak if I'm understanding this right that is not what is being referred to at all. That is only what lead to this hypothetical player holding a weak hand in the first place. It is the hand they are holding (their position/circumstance/attitude) which makes them a 'weak hand' which they are likely to lose if the market goes against them for anything other than the tiniest blip. Interestingly, and especially when it comes to Bitcoin with its divisibility, it's not so much what we're dealt or how much we brought to the table that determines how strong or weak our hands are as the decisions we make in terms of how much (relative to our 'pot'), at what prices and when we buy, hold or sell. Our knowledge and understanding of trading, our tendency to make well reasoned decisions and to form a plan as well as our courage to carry that plan through all have a part in determining how strong our hand is. Of course luck has its part to play but deciding to select strong hands and carrying them through to their conclusion on a consistent basis is very likely to result in a long-term earned increase in asset value, at the expense of those who didn't. OK, I'm converted. Now that I understand it I'm a fan of the notion of money flowing from weak hands to strong hands now :) Now all I need to do (if I plan to do any more than hold onto my Bitcoin until such a time that I can earn in it and pay most of my living expenses in it) is to learn the skills and disciplines necessary to hold strong hands :) I love this forum. I open my mouth with a misunderstanding and get presented with a beautiful opportunity to learn. The quality of thinking here bodes well for Bitcoin methinks :) Thanks all. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: cheat_2_win on January 25, 2013, 09:54:10 PM Only when those of us confident enough about higher prices hold them can the higher price be sustained. Exactly. This is what is meant (imo) about the moving from weak hands to strong hands. Yeah - because selling makes you weak - be strong - hold your coins no matter what. That's the kind of argumentation I would expect from Madoff or some scientologist. Exactly. The actual price doesn't matter. It is the sentiment of the investor. Example of a weak shand. Someone too scared to buy into BTC and watched it rise from $10 to $15. The entire time was convinced it would crash to <$10 so they didn't want to buy. Finally due to the spike from $15 to $19 they buy in (capitulation buy). They don't really want to buy in at this price point but their short term plan has failed and they feel "forced" to buy in now or risk missing out on even more price appreciation. This hypothetical investor now has too much invested at too high of a price (relative to their own internal valuation). This investor is just looking for a quick spike to >$20 to sell for a profit. They are very likely to dump on any significant price movement upward which caps their gains however the larger risk is they are too long relative to their internal valuation and thus are very likely to panic sell if the price moves against them. Their impulse purchase, entry point, objective, and internal valuation all conspire to create a scenario where their upside potential is small and they have a large risk of selling in any downside correction. Example of a strong hand. Someone dollar cost averaged with multiple strategic buys between $10 and $15 over the course of months. The investor believes long term the valuation should be north of $50 and thus $1 to $2 price moves are really irrelevant. While this investor may have a large nominal amount invested they don't "need" the funds and are psychologically prepared to suffer a unrealized loss for months of even years. They anticipate significant corrections and have undeployed capital ready to "buy on dips". The investor also accepts there is a non zero chance that the Bitcoin experiment will fail and this speculative investment will be completely worthless. This hypothetical investor has a strong hand. They are more likely to be buying on dips and selling some (but not all) on unrealistic spikes to continually improve their basis. Over time coins (and thus wealth) are more likely to move from weak hands to strong hands. Yeah - in the positive scenario he is a 'strong hand' in the negative one he is a 'bag holder'. All that rhetoric is just to manipulate people. It is all just probabilities. If you think it most probably will drop soon - then it is better to sell now - even if you think that some day in the future it will go up, because you can always buy back cheaper. And it is all symmetric - you know - you can also think about holding USD and selling it for bitcoins. Many of us in the forum can see through your attempt to manipulate the price down. Why do you think, when so much innovations are happening in bitcoin arena, holding bitcoins is equivalent to holding a bag? From my vantage point, it is the other way around. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on January 25, 2013, 09:56:12 PM Yeah - in the positive scenario he is a 'strong hand' in the negative one he is a 'bag holder'. All that rhetoric is just to manipulate people. It is all just probabilities. If you think it most probably will drop soon - then it is better to sell now - even if you think that some day in the future it will go up, because you can always buy back cheaper. And it is all symmetric - you know - you can also think about holding USD and selling it for bitcoins. Many of us in the forum can see through your attempt to manipulate the price down. Why do you think, when so much innovations are happening in bitcoin arena, holding bitcoins is equivalent to holding a bag? From my vantage point, it is the other way around. What are you talking about? He is just pointing out the obvious. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: cheat_2_win on January 25, 2013, 09:58:34 PM Yeah - in the positive scenario he is a 'strong hand' in the negative one he is a 'bag holder'. All that rhetoric is just to manipulate people. It is all just probabilities. If you think it most probably will drop soon - then it is better to sell now - even if you think that some day in the future it will go up, because you can always buy back cheaper. And it is all symmetric - you know - you can also think about holding USD and selling it for bitcoins. Many of us in the forum can see through your attempt to manipulate the price down. Why do you think, when so much innovations are happening in bitcoin arena, holding bitcoins is equivalent to holding a bag? From my vantage point, it is the other way around. What are you talking about? He is just pointing out the obvious. OOPS :P I am starting to see ghosts in my screen. Need to sleep a little bit more. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: notme on January 25, 2013, 10:17:59 PM If you think it most probably will drop soon - then it is better to sell now - even if you think that some day in the future it will go up, because you can always buy back cheaper... if you are right. FTFY Also probability says you will be wrong fairly often, so make sure you use proper money management practices and don't bet the farm on one move. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: XxionxX on January 26, 2013, 12:53:21 AM Example of a strong hand. Someone dollar cost averaged with multiple strategic buys between $10 and $15 over the course of several months. The investor believes long term the valuation should be north of $50 and thus $1 to $2 price moves are really irrelevant. While this investor may have a large nominal amount invested they don't "need" the funds and are psychologically prepared to suffer a unrealized loss for months of even years. They anticipate significant corrections and have undeployed capital ready to "buy on dips". The investor also accepts there is a non zero chance that the Bitcoin experiment will fail and this speculative investment will be completely worthless. This hypothetical investor has a strong hand. They are more likely to be buying on dips and selling some (but not all) on unrealistic spikes to continually improve their basis. Have you been watching me!!?? You described me perfectly! WHERE ARE YOUR CAMERAS AND MICROPHONES!!?? :D >psychologically prepared to suffer a unrealized loss for months of even years. Heck I am prepared to lose it all, I just believe in the concept of bitcoin. Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: cbeast on January 26, 2013, 01:43:11 AM [apology mode]
It's not really worth starting a new thread to state what I think is now obvious. Instead, I am going to blatantly ignore the OP to state that I do not believe we will ever see single digit USD prices again. [/end apology mode] Bitcoin is Sixteen, going on 17 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZnlcHzPZgIw) Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: proudhon on January 26, 2013, 03:32:02 PM I would follow deathandtaxes on twitter +1. Consistently the most logical writer here.Um, hello!?... Title: Re: 17 is the new 12 Post by: lebing on January 26, 2013, 05:01:17 PM I would follow deathandtaxes on twitter +1. Consistently the most logical writer here.Um, hello!?... Yes, your microphone is on |