Bitcoin Forum

As one would expect since Avalon DHL shipment officially happened almost a week ago.

Instead I see a slight decrease in both hashrate and difficulty.
As if no ASICs were actually mining, and as if  some GPU rigs were getting retired without replacement.

Just sayin'.

Avalon said they shipped but no tracking #'s and they blame customs...didn't you read the avalon thread? it's a good read

Keep in mind the difficulty only changes every 2016 blocks (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty).

The first guy who puts an ASIC miner on the bitcoin network will likely be able to generate a lot of coins before the difficulty reacts to ASICs.

I have some experience with receiving shipments from Chinese marketplaces and have had shipments often stopped at customs.

The fact is that a tracking number is always there when the seller has, at the very least, reserved one with the courier. Even the cheapest and dead slow couriers (China Post, HongKong post, EMS) have tracking numbers.

if it the tracking number is not there, the seller has not shipped. Plain and simple. Now of course he will try to reassure you. He will lie to you. Say he has already shipped. This is quite common. He is only trying to keep you quiet while he keeps trying to source the item in that big  mafia of no-name factories and dodgy distributors which is Shenzen. That's why reputable Chinese marketplace sellers generally don't have the very latest unobtainium in their catalogs till production is good enough to guarantee some reasonable supply without having to bribe someone too much.

IMO:
One thing you can rest assured of is that, if there is no tracking number yet, nothing has been shipped yet. And these Avalon guys, assumed they aren't scammers, better know how to get things going in China because if their devices draw too much attention (as they probably do) they will "disappear" from the factories well before their contact can ship them.

And yet http://bitcoin.sipa.be says that the growth rate is negative. Uhmmmm...

More please.

Avalon said it takes up to 20 days for shipment. They started shipping on January 20th.

If this forum is not full with "I got my ASIC today!!!!!!!!!" messages by February 10th I propose to give Avalon a scammer tag. 

One day, ASICs will be here. That will be the day that ASICs arrive.
The end.

True story.

OMG me and Frizz actually agree on something? I'll second this.

Lol,This is going to be quite interesting....but we all need beta testers. :-X

Even packages from the Silk Road can take over 20 days. About 10 days from US East to US West. So given the Chinese post, DHL and others may take their time, I'd give it 25 to 30 days tokeep in in a somewhat realistic conservative timeframe.

You know, to account for any "lost", broken or damaged packages.

I just got a 27" monitor from Korea to the Midwest in 3 days if that puts anything into perspective.

But you are talking "western" country to "western" country .... customs between China and U.S. in particular is a tough business, I know because my in-laws ship simple over the counter medicine/vitamin supplements to their chinese friends and even those get thoroughly inspected very frequently, they'll get to chinese customs and then sit there for ages.... sad but true.

I have had en ebay item shipped from a company in Hong Kong to the Eastern US in under 6 days.In fact,my prior job used to do plenty of mail orders from mainland China to the US and they usually took less than 6-7 business days.

You have to pay a lot to get 6-7 business days from China.  That guy with those ASICs probably couldnt afford it.  Maybe he should have just ran them for a couple days first, to pay the extra shipping charge... I don't think anyone would be too upset

It is the Schroedinger ASIC: it is both shipped and not shipped  :o

Seriously. 10 days with no update and no tracking numbers. And you still believe they have shipped on the 20th.

Of course they have. After all, they are "Avalon". A respectable company with a proven success record aren't they?

But wait. They are shipping from China! Ah sure that must be the reason for the delay. And the lack of updates. And the missing tracking numbers.

Yeah, after all no one ever shipped anything from china. It is not like china is one of the biggest world economy. Probably it is the first time something is shipped from china!

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-thumbnail.png

yep

i thought they only shipped like 60 units, right?

so either someone else made some asics, or that's mostly GPU mining 'cause the price is at $20, with a few ASICs thrown in

60 * 66 Gh/s = ~4 Th/s

The ASICs would explain the bulk of the rise.

I just looked and it seems like it was 50, not 60 like I said earlier. 

I imagine that guy in Korea that does half a dozen or more blocks a day is probably using ASICs though, too.   

I mean, if I was in "Avalon" I'd send some stash to a friend or mine with some myself while they're still profitable...  so maybe if you included his total

i started overclocking my cards a little again , since it's profitable to do so atm

Weird. When it spiked up to 30TH/s for like 12 hours, I assumed it was more than just variation, and actually ASICs online. Now we're looking at 25THs, almost exactly where we were before.

I prefer the graph for the last 3 months:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

Follow the purple line.

Why did you shrink the img, without making it clickable? Then we can't see it.

Edit: But I do agree with you. We're almost to where we were before the reward half. Yay ASICs!

It does seem to have been variation (at least for now). I'm sure others have started up their GPU mining once more (as I did) since it's marginally profitable (again, at least for now). I think it'll be pretty obvious once there are a fair number of ASICs in the wild, and I'm fully expecting to see a stable 30+ TH/s over the next few weeks.

Well BFL will be hopefully shipping in the next 2 weeks, so I'm ok with that. As long as I get some time mining below a 5 million difficulty, I'll be happy. Not as it will affect my overall profits that much, but just cuz it sounds cool as hell.  8)

I should have provide a link for the image, but my brain farted.
I was just showing a graph of the same time period without a massive spike in hash rate.

Avalon shipped 15 days ago, and we're still not to the hashrate pre-reward half?

Those hashes look pretty volatile.

Looks can be quite deceiving. The hash rate is completing within it's normal range, especially given the substantial increase in USD/BTC value. It'll be vastly more obvious if there were more ASICs hashing.

It's going back up again, we'll see if this trend increases into next week.

We shall see indeed.

A) Avalon shipped 3+ weeks ago.
B) Network still isn't even at the pre-reward half level from 2 months ago.
C) The price has risen by $5 in just the past 2 weeks alone. It's at ~$23, higher than its been in a LONG time. That alone would entice a lot of miners to come back online.

guess what me  bfl and you are in the same team


we wonder why??? hmmm