Bitcoin Forum

I don't think this prediction is all that bold - but feel free to post your opinions and either tell me how smart/stupid I am when it does/doesn't happen.

As long as you just post your claim without any reason behind it you'll have a hard time for anybody to take you serious.

I approve.

So, your predicting a drop in value to $8? I don't know if your right or wrong, but I assume you can't predict the future either. What indicators are you looking at?
Cheers,

Very basic reasoning - volatility is the rule in the bitcoin market.  We may touch $50 on the way up this time, but to not expect a major correction or several along the way just seems foolish/naive.  I'm also not overly worried how seriously anyone takes this - just throwing out a prediction, and so MANY people are bullish right now we're SCREAMING for a correction.  Under $10 (single digits) didn't feel audacious enough, so I went with $8.  Time will tell ;-)

LOL I wish.

The thing is, Bitcoin scarcity is kicking in and it's getting a lot of press.

I wish I could hoard some coins at 8$! but it's not going to happen.

I remember when predictions of Bitcoin going under $1 were all the rage.  $8... meh.  I guess that means the bear have increased their valuation by 700%. :)

I wonder if in a couple years we will see some brave predictions about how Bitcoin will will be under $50 by next year.

I'm glad to hear that! This means we will mos def never-ever see single digits again!

I agree, I definitely think we will see single digits by the end of the year (particularly if the price keeps growing at the rate it has over the last few months).

this is why I've been selling a good % of my holdings.

anything can happen, SR could be taken down, MTGOX could see some heat from banks?
anything... and poof the price suffers drastically

I want to be ready to buy cheap when something like this happens  ;)

Please let's put matters in relation.
In the past, we had one big bubble and crash, but since then, we had several corrections. The corrections were all somewhat around 25%, not more. e.g 7 -> 5, 13->9.8.

So, since you're talking about a "rule" of volatility:  25% down from $20 would be 15, but 25% down from $50 would be $ 37.5
None of this is single digit.


On the other hand, a really catastrophic event could yield all conceivable possible outcomes.
But if we try to be reasonable, all we can say is that a catastrophic event is possible, not more not less.
Any kind of more tangible guesswork has to be related to something connected to our experience, which by definition does not mean "catastrophic".

Completely possible!
I don't see any good reason why it should be deemed "impossible, short of catastrophe" to see single digits again.

Lol no

In mid 2011 I remember reading comments on this forum about how some people would be amazed if bitcoin was worth less than US$100 by the end of that year.  It finished at around $2.  It's easy to think the price will keep going up after a sudden burst in the price.  All that's needed is a few people with lots of bitcoins to think 'hmm, yep, I reckon this is as good as it's going to get for a while' and dump.  Instant correction as others follow.

Those convenient 'walls' at $20 right after a dump are not created by a mass of people all thinking the same.  It's someone extracting maximum value from the market and doing a great job of it.

This.  People have been mislead by the fact that holders of large amounts of bitcoin have been keeping them off the order book for a few months now.  When thy put those bitcoins back up to help reinforce a direction change, things will look very grim.  I wouldn't be surprised to see 100,000BTCs stack up under $21, and the psychological weight of that on most people can help turn this into a ver long correction.

The situation right now looks rather weird to me. We got newbies who clearly behave like a bubble herd, those who expect a crash just because it always happened, and there's a possibility of big players who are for some reason desperate to buy now and didn't care about Bitcoin earlier. That's the hardest point to predict.

Without the latter kind, this is just another bubbly phase. Looks like one, anyway. It's a pretty basic risk: if almost everyone's a bull and the order book looks flat, who should provide stability against crashes?

Predicting specific values is very hard though. One can be off by a factor just because Bitcoin.

Isn't that just fine? Aren't that the signs that Bitcoin has become more mature? There are all kinds of contradictory forces at work, which help things to level out. The more Bitcoin becomes real-world, the more it becomes mixed and boring. We'll never see a year with such extremes like 2011 again -- unless something really exceptionally happens. All these events, Pirate, the BitInstant card, the reward halving, the ASICS. All these are not exceptional events.

this is true.  expect a grind higher punctuated by spurts and pullbacks.

Just by looking at the growth of the gambling industry alone in bitcoin.  I say won't happen.   Lots of room to go up.  of course there will be some corrections.  I'd like it to go up a little more gradually than it is now though. :p

it's certainly possible, but only if there is a specific reason. for example, a new yet unknown virtual currency that outperforms bitcoin on all levels is introduced and all start to jump into the other ship …

pfff, like one of three hundred alternative chains? for something to "outperform" bitcoin now it should at least have as much media attention, and it's quite hard to achieve for a follower. other qualities do not matter much, as long as there's no fatal flaw.