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Title: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: LMGTFY on March 21, 2016, 11:30:07 AM There's lots of speculation about what the block reward reduction will do to price, but not much about when it will happen. Are we all content to sit back and trust the wildly different estimates from Bitcoin Clock (http://bitcoinclock.com/) and Bitcoin Block Half (http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/)? Surely not! The wisdom of the crowd must be able to provide a better answer than the estimates from these two websites.
Apologies for the crude date ranges in the options - somebody might want to create a new poll as the halving approaches, with more finely-grained options. Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: --Encrypted-- on March 21, 2016, 12:05:10 PM July 4 - July 10 according to my estimation and speculation. :P
could be faster but most likely won't get slower. Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: makingwin1 on March 22, 2016, 05:44:45 PM There's lots of speculation about what the block reward reduction will do to price, but not much about when it will happen. Are we all content to sit back and trust the wildly different estimates from Bitcoin Clock (http://bitcoinclock.com/) and Bitcoin Block Half (http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/)? Surely not! The wisdom of the crowd must be able to provide a better answer than the estimates from these two websites. Apologies for the crude date ranges in the options - somebody might want to create a new poll as the halving approaches, with more finely-grained options. i think it will be july4 - july 10 too because i don't think that it will be too different from 2012 halving date and i really don't think that one day miners will stop mining for some time so date of halving would be pushed to next month Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: afbitcoins on March 23, 2016, 01:13:53 AM i put july 4th but admit heavily influenced by the bitcoin clock which I thought was gospel.
Honestly I don't think exact date matters at all, although its a fun idea for a thread and some conversation. The speculative bubble may appear some time after (or before) that date. Real economic impact of supply halving will be felt much later after speculative bubble has collapsed and new value found. Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: bitcoinhopper on March 23, 2016, 01:22:08 AM I think the halving will be around the 11- 17 July something there in between, its of course unpredictable but I think it will most likely be there.
Its also difficult to predict on which days it will happen but most likely on 11-17 July. Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: ultimatesky on March 23, 2016, 01:35:41 AM i put july 4th but admit heavily influenced by the bitcoin clock which I thought was gospel. Honestly I don't think exact date matters at all, although its a fun idea for a thread and some conversation. The speculative bubble may appear some time after (or before) that date. Real economic impact of supply halving will be felt much later after speculative bubble has collapsed and new value found. Its of course not to predict these days with the bitcoin but I think it will be later than the 31 of July if I may be honest. There is a good chance that it will be later in my opinion due to the things that are happening right now. Overall it does not matter, indeed but some people just want know what is not knowable ;) . Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: Amph on March 23, 2016, 07:47:10 AM i'm with late july , i would say july 18
Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: 1Referee on March 23, 2016, 07:49:32 AM I will go for somewhere in mid Juli, let's say it will happen on Juli 15th. That seems quite a fair guess from my side.
Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: n691309 on March 23, 2016, 08:05:07 AM There's lots of speculation about what the block reward reduction will do to price, but not much about when it will happen. Are we all content to sit back and trust the wildly different estimates from Bitcoin Clock (http://bitcoinclock.com/) and Bitcoin Block Half (http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/)? Surely not! The wisdom of the crowd must be able to provide a better answer than the estimates from these two websites. Apologies for the crude date ranges in the options - somebody might want to create a new poll as the halving approaches, with more finely-grained options. Voted for June 27 - July 3, recently while searching on blockchain i have seen that sometimes there are many blocks mined in few minutes, so i thing the halving will be at the Early July. Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: LMGTFY on March 23, 2016, 09:30:09 AM i put july 4th but admit heavily influenced by the bitcoin clock which I thought was gospel. Honestly I don't think exact date matters at all, although its a fun idea for a thread and some conversation. The speculative bubble may appear some time after (or before) that date. Real economic impact of supply halving will be felt much later after speculative bubble has collapsed and new value found. I desperately want it to happen sooner rather than later - but I have no idea why! I guess my heart has built it up into an important event, despite what my brain says! I wonder whether the rise late last year might, in hindsight, be seen as part of the 2016 halfing? Looking back to 2012, there was a similar rise before hand (though much closer to the November 2012 block halfing date - last year's rise was 7-8 months before the expected date). Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: BruceLee007 on March 23, 2016, 10:20:18 AM I think the halving will be around the 11- 17 July something there in between, its of course unpredictable but I think it will most likely be there. Its also difficult to predict on which days it will happen but most likely on 11-17 July. yes it is very unpredictable, it can beat July 2 or at July 29 we don't really know that but we are sure that it will happen in July and i would pick late July, around 22, because halving in 2012 hapend in late July too if i remember correctly, so i think same will happen now Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: DodoB on March 23, 2016, 11:45:11 AM Its the 16th of July according to this site http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ since its calculated by bots im going to assume its pretty accurate
Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: LMGTFY on March 23, 2016, 11:58:31 AM Its the 16th of July according to this site http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ since its calculated by bots im going to assume its pretty accurate Try refreshing the page throughout the day - its estimate changes frequently, and sometimes quite dramatically - the other site I mentioned in the OP has been slowly drifting back from late July, but Bitcoin Blockhalf has been jumping around from late July to late June. Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: lister storm on March 23, 2016, 12:17:53 PM i believe it will happen somewhere about july 1 because the pace of blocks mined is pretty fast right now and it is getting faster i think
when it will happen we will surely see a big increase in bitcoin price and most probably i will make a lot of money out of that Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: randy8777 on March 23, 2016, 12:34:28 PM 28 juli as i believe it will happen at the end of the month. i tried to calculate the average block times, but it won't help much since it changes quite a bit.
Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: ~Bitcoin~ on March 23, 2016, 03:43:24 PM July 4 - July 10 according to my estimation and speculation. :P I agree with this. Voted for july 4 to 10.could be faster but most likely won't get slower. Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: hasiramasenju on March 23, 2016, 03:50:39 PM block halving date i think it would be happen in the first week on july and my vote for options July 4 - July 10
Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: maokoto on March 23, 2016, 07:38:08 PM I voted for a later post July 18. My thought is that some bitcoin mining business would likely cease functioning even before the halving and not at the last moment, reducing some of the block finding and making it produce later.
Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: techgeek on March 23, 2016, 07:52:44 PM My prediction is anywhere within the 107 days and 14 hrs.
And can -2 days depending if more miners are on the network, so yeah.. I`m more excited when the halving is done after 1 week. Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: snipie on March 23, 2016, 08:06:18 PM Voted between July 11 - 17, it isn't that simple to estimate but that's what I think. After several weeks things will get exciting ;)
Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: Razick on March 23, 2016, 09:24:59 PM Just as a side note those two sites are within 5 days of each other. I wouldn't call them wildly different.
Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: LMGTFY on March 23, 2016, 09:27:55 PM Just as a side note those two sites are within 5 days of each other. I wouldn't call them wildly different. Keep an eye on Bitcoin Blockhalf - it changes frequently and jumps around a lot. When I looked earlier today it was only 2 days from Bitcoin clock, but it's been a couple of weeks either side within the past few weeks. Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: Junko on March 23, 2016, 09:46:19 PM July 11 - 17 is my prediction
Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: Zaun on March 23, 2016, 09:58:19 PM In my prediction it will be around 10 July but its not to predict right now so no one can say it.
I hope it will be around that date because than I'm still in my own country, otherwise I have my holidays.. Title: Re: Poll: predict the date of the 2016 halving Post by: bitbet-info on May 22, 2016, 11:32:04 PM BitBet is running a prediction market on this: https://bitbet.us/bet/1263/bitcoin-halving-to-occur-on-july-9th/ (https://bitbet.us/bet/1263/bitcoin-halving-to-occur-on-july-9th/) Money weighted odds are currently heavily in favour of July 10th. |