Bitcoin Forum

Hi,

What is your outlook (price target) for bitcoin in the next 2 years ? (in USD/BTC)

Please vote and argue your case.

With the risk of introducing bias, here is my vote/argument: I believe bitcoin will be worth between 50 and 100 in the next two years. A total market cap of about 200 mio USD today for a technology like bitcoin seems small. I think a total market cap of 1 billion within 2 years is realistic, which would lead to a price between 50 and 100. A market cap of 1 billion would be achieved when 1 million users each hold about 1000 USD worth of bitcoin. Main drivers:
1) regulation (government ban or not ?)
2) ability to scale (how many users/transactions can the network handle?)
3) the rise of other, better crypto-currencies
4) acceptance by businesses (will there be many "Wordpresses" in the next two years ? will Google/Amazon/Facebook/Apple on day accept them ?)

Most interested to see your votes and hear your thoughts.

Pulling a number out of my ... I would say ~100  ;D

you have to divide the entire monetary wealth of the entire globe and divide it by the number of bitcoins

id say to make things fair the number of bitcoins will have to be increased at some stage though original stakeholders would be expected

to benefit most from the new issues

Please take your 'fairness' argument somewhere else.  The world isn't fair nor is bitcoin, nor SHOULD it be in any nominal sense.

With regard to the original question - I believe we'll see a relatively large correction to single digits in the short/medium term.  Two years from now I'd say between $25-40 is most likely.

under 10 or between 1000 and 10000.

more than 10000

I don't know what the market would bear, but I would like it to be between 100-400. I could really use the increase in small increase in funds, I have assets I need to purchase and then I would be able to buy even more btc!

I have no idea but I'd like to see it bottom out less than 10 at some point this year when I have plenty of cash on hand to make an immediate purchase.

I missed out last time around, I'm ready this time.

WTF?
You say within the next 2years everything on this planet is bought and sold with bitcoins only,
not sure if serious..

..ok, not serious, just trolling.

Haha, yeah right, that's what you wish, to get rich quick.
Good luck with that.

Let's be realistic. No market allows hyper-profiting.

When I get my ASIC mining hardware, well, mining, and the price of Bitcoin remains at its current level, I will be hyper-profiting. So, I know that the market will correct itself, sooner or later. Then I will keep making reasonable, high(is) profits for the foreseeable future. And that at the current norms is not more than 100%.

My cost of mining for the next few years will be around $3.9 / BTC.

Therefore I will be disappointed if the BTC drops below $7, but I don't believe it is sustainable to have it at the current $21. So, what is the hsitoric YOY growth, 30%?, 50%?, then it will be reasonable to expect it to hover (with slight upwards trend) around $15 in 2 years.

That's my thumb's suck.

But then again, the professional speculators can make and break any market, Bitcoin including - and that will make the BTC anyone's guess!

Ever thought that maybe the price won't drop but you'll have more mining competition?

LOL

if you really think the value of bitcoin is to any extent determined by the cost of mining, then you shouldnt be mining because you have no idea what you are doing.

I definitely do not understand your logic - are you saying that I should not mine because I do not know what I am doing? Hey, there are thousands of miners who mine without knowing what they are doing, but that doe snot stop them.

If you were right, and only the ones in the know continue mining, the Bitcoin would shrink to a very small network, and the price of BTC would go back to where it was in January 2011.

Nah, on a second thought, I will continue mining, I will take my chances...

And don't patronise me, when it comes to Bitcoin, I am comfortable with the knowledge I have (and maintain), I have been mining and speculating for almost two years now, following my instincts, I do not remember when the last time I've made a wrong decision.

Someone is delusional.

No, he's just pointing out that the price of BTC has no discernable connection to the price of mining them. Those two statistics have never aligned in a meaningful way, nor should they, logically speaking. The comment about exiting mining was simply a dramatic way of saying "You're doing it wrong".
Again, the price of BTC has nothing to do with the number of people mining them, so no it would not. It would just mean that there were fewer people splitting the rewards.
By all means continue mining, my only advice is never to be comfortable with the knowledge you have.

If you really know the mechanism of mining, you should know that your hyper-profiting would not last long: not because of dropping of BTC/USD rate, but a skyrocket of difficulty

This. I lol'ed so hard when I saw the original thread. $3.9 per btc of mining costs for 'the next few years'? More like till the next difficulty adjustment...

No, but it will probably stop them from making a profit.

Here is a clue; as with almost anything,  price of bitcoin is determined by supply and demand. Supply is now 25 BTC per ~10 minutes, regardless if you are the only one mining on the planet using a $25 raspberry pi or if 10 million miners spent $100,000 each on asics. Supply is fixed by the algorithm, and demand doesnt come from miners, it comes from speculators, hoarders, gamblers, drug users and anyone else wanting to buy BTC. The notion that mining cost has anything to do with bitcoin price is ludicrous. The only thing that it has something to do with the mining cost, is mining profit, and if everyone is as clueless as you, that profit will vanish real quick.  I dont know what you are mining with today, but I do hope you understand your GPU's and FGPAs are about produce only ~10% of what they used to and potentially less than 1% in a year or so. They will still cost exactly as much to run though.


Nonsense. If almost everyone except you stopped mining tomorrow, it would barely affect the price. The only thing that would really change is that you would make a killer profit. The opposite is much more likely though.


Just realize that your chances of making a profit depend almost entirely on how many others will take their chances. You might get lucky, if you ordered asics early and get your asic before most others,  but my gut feeling is that people are and will continue to overbuy mining equipment creating a loss for everyone.


Since you dont seem to understand even the basics, thats only due to luck and the fact BTC has been going up almost consistently.  As long as you kept holding at least some BTC, it was pretty damn hard to make a loss.

OK, it has never been my intention to force my opinion to anyone - I was merely replying to the OP's poll and arguing my view. As I stated, that was my thumb suck, and nothing else.

I am comfortable with my knowledge, I started mining with a single CPU, then moved along with the technology, well, I always ensured to stay way ahead of it. Currently I am mining with FPGAs (very profitably, FYI) and soon I will have considerable hash-rates thanks to the AISCs I will deploy. I've planned that right, and as usual, I will enjoying the results of my plans.

But you people should not worry about me being right or wrong - it is quite easy to determine if I am wrong - you just have to wait a year or two.

Fortunately, most of the ones who called the raise of BTC to over [insert your favourite unreasonable value here] will be long gone by the year end, similar to the ones who "predicted" in June 2011 that the BTC will be worth over $100 before the year end, or the others who stated that the BTC will be worth $millions by the time of the decade and one could buy a house with a single Bitcoin.

Unlike me, back in the days, where I thought the market will tolerate reasonable value for the BTC of not more than 100% of the mining cost - so we ended up with BTC=$5 and I made quite a profit with that.

So I rest my case. 

You really really dont understand how it works....
Im baffled.

I am quite sure you don't understand what determines BTC prices, or how mining competition works, but good for you that you turned a nice profit.
May you continue to do so in the future while securing the network.

I'm not sure whether the fact that he'll continue making a profit without understanding how Bitcoin works is good or bad  ;D

Another competitor in securing the network.  All good in my book.

Voted between 100 and 500 seeing the general trend of the last months...

If we extrapolate from the last few weeks to over the next two years... we'll be over 9000 in no time :p

True, but I don't think this January growth can really last for two years :)

Having (being bored, I guess) participated in this poll, I found the irrational speculation about the price of Bitcoin in two years to be quite meaningless.

To challenge the "intellect" of the people in this tread who know how Bitcoin works, I propose we start speculating on when (month, year) the transactional fee will exceed the block reward.

In my humble view, at that time the average individual-mining-profitability will stop determining the price of the Bitcoin. Instead, the average pool-profitability (solo-miners included) will start determining the price of Bitcoin.

And of course, in time, the transaction fee will exceed the pitiful BTC 25 (or who knows, BTC 12.5? BTC 6.25?) one gets as a reward to solve a block, hopefully reaching the astronomical figures everyone dreams about.

How about 1% transaction fee, and how many transaction could be included into a 1MB block? Everyone should be able to calculate this simple problem. I am sure the people in the know will celebrate that moment like their is no tomorrow!

But hopefully, at that same moment, the Network would have gained good, solid substance and the market-maker traders will decide to join and start playing yo-yo with the (proper size this time) market.

Methinks, good for them.

Too bad for the pigs, though, they will get slaughtered again.

Nothing new under the sky.

Usually when you want to talk about something completely unrelated to the OP you start a new thread.  Instead, you seem to have called this thread pointless and are attempting to start a new topic in its place.

Sure, I went on a tangent here. But it was not me who started this off-topic argument. I stayed strictly on-topic until the idiots chirped-in with their [whatever you call that].

My apologies to the OP, I should not have called your tread meaningless, I apologise again.

Fair value of a bitcoin = (cost of all mining equipment) * 0.51 / (number of bitcoins in existence) ~= $20M*0.51/11M ~= $1

Because this is what it costs to destroy the bitcoin. Would you risk investing $100 into something that could be destroyed for the cost of $1, without any risk of legal action or war, as with fiat currencies?

Satoshi argued that if anyone had the resources to launch a 51% attack, she will be better off just mining bitcoins and profiting from it. The fallacy here is that profit and double-spending are attacker's only motive. But there could be a lot of more powerful motives to destroy the bitcoin. A competing blockchain. VISA and PayPal. War on drugs. War on tax evasion and money laundering.

If you wanted to do a 51% attack you'd have to have as much mining equipment as the rest of the network combined.

That would change your very tenuous equation to

Fair value of a bitcoin = (cost of all mining equipment) / (number of bitcoins in existence) ~= $20M/11M ~= $2

The Labor Theory of Value is still wrong.

Agree )

Not saying this will always be the case. In distant future maybe bitcoin will become universally adopted, and some very powerful entities will stand to defend it. Mining for profit will no longer be the main motive. In this case, maybe only 1% of miners will be online consuming power, with 99% sitting in reserve ready to divert an attack. And a fleet of F-1515 tachionic interceptors ready to nuke malicious miners ...