Bitcoin Forum

Every single fuckin thread i read about in this speculation thread just keep saying,"Halving is coming,keep holding bitcoins,it's a buy time price will rice"
I have some question for everyone."Really?" I mean what will happen day or 2 days after halving."Panic selling",Right? That won't make the fall in price? Please correct me anyone if i am wrong.Will not most of the people think now it's time to sell at the halving? ???
So if i don't want to sell and want to keep holding can i ever take the same benefit of selling like the people will take at halving? I want technical answers please.
Is there any other factor that can hopefully make the bitcoin not fall so much after halving because i know and you should accept it too.Sell orders will be sky rocketing at that time.Doesn't it?

There are no fundamental reasons for a price rise as a direct result of the halving. The biggest factors affecting the price will be increased awareness of Bitcoin caused by the event, irrational expectations, and all the hype between now and then.

Because the expectations of a price increase are a major factor, the conditions are ripe for a bubble. My expectation for the upcoming halving is that the price will behave exactly as it did with Litecoin's halving last year. That is, a bubble that pops just before the halving.

My belief is that the timing of the bursting of the bubble depends on how quickly the price rises and at what point enough people believe it is a bubble. If it rises very quickly, as Litecoin did, then the bubble will burst before the halving. It is more subdued, then the bubble will burst after the halving when the halving disappoints and people cash in.

There is always a chance that there will be no bubble. There is also a good chance that other external events affect the price more than the halving hysteria.

My primary assumption is that the price will rise over the long term, so I have bought a large amount and I continue to buy when I can. Whether I take advantage of a bubble or not, I will come out ahead if my assumption is correct.
 
But, this is how I plan to take advantage of a bubble:

When the price starts to go crazy I will start selling. After every 20% increase in price, I sell 10% of my bitcoins. At the top of the bubble, I will have many fewer bitcoins and a lot of cash. Even if the bubble doesn't pop, I am still way ahead.

But, the bubble will pop and the price will plummet. And when that happens, after every 20% price decrease, I buy back 10% of my bitcoins. At the bottom, I will have more bitcoins and more cash than when I started.

Here is an example. Starting with 10 bitcoins, the price jumps to $500 and it looks like a bubble, it continues to about $1000, and then it drops to $800 and I start selling.

Sell on the way up:

Price	BTC	$	Total Value
$500	10.00	$0	$5000
$600	9.09	$545	$5999
$720	8.26	$1140	$7137
$864	7.51	$1789	$8278
$1037	6.83	$2497	$9580

But, it's a bubble... Buy on the way down:

Price	BTC	$	Total Value
$800	6.83	$2497	$7961
$667	7.51	$2041	$7050
$556	8.26	$1623	$6215
$463	9.09	$1241	$5450

The result with this buy/sell strategy is that you are ahead of where you would be if you did nothing, no matter what happens.

I agree that price does not have neccessarily to go up, but one thing is quite for sure: it will produce un effect, either for the up of the low. And that generates quite a lot of expectation.

I think I will hold, if it goes down, hold until it goes up.

It doesn't even matter if there are legit reasons for it to raise.. there is a lot of hype. In the markets the psychological factor is what can make the price go to the moon in a matter of hours, and don't forget we are talking about Bitcoin here. The actual asset is undervalued as hell at only 6 billion dollar marketcap, the FOMO will happen any time now, and the halving could be that trigger.

I'll be honest, if you don't have a 10 post count, what you say has no weight.

The answer to your question is, why are you trolling us?

How would you know if it's really a bubble? What if it falls till $700 and reaches $1500 again? Don't you feel sad you sold some at $1k?


what asking questions is trolling you?If yes,why bother commenting?

Certain questions are aimed at dmging the confidence of a peoples.

Truth be told.
I asked the questions because i wanted to.
Doesn't matter if someone gets hurt  :P

I read a lot of different answers.From "it's already priced in, therefore nothing will happen" to "I don't know" to "it will increase at least 2x" and many more.
The fact is we are all just wild guessing. Some are concerned about it are others don't really care.
I say let's wait and see what will happen.

I never know for sure if it is a bubble, but either way I am still better off -- even if I don't make the maximum possible profit.

If I sell some at $1k, then I have doubled my money. I don't know why anyone would feel sad about doubling their money. I don't have to triple my money to feel good about it.

Is this event gonna get any media coverage anywhere? How would they frame it so anyone cared? How many traders actually give a shit about how bitcoin works? It might give this board a boner. I ain't so sure anywhere else cares.

I tried explaining Bitcoin to someone who's never heard of it, and she told me to shut up about it within less than a minute. Most people who have never heard of Bitcoin won't take the time to learn what the halving means, so it won't make the mainstream news unless the halving pumps the price to the moon. A steep price rise should make the news, but nobody will care why its gone up apart from our community.

Bear in mind, that the halving is not until July.

3.5 Months away. That is a lot of time....Bitcoin could easily tank to low $300s, upper $200s, and still have plenty time to consolidate and have a big massive pump up to $500, $600, with maybe even a spike to $800 or $900.......


......but for now:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yXygmqPU/

sometimes other people's opinions and speculation is incorrect. you just need to re-analyze. never to direct action. bitcoin trading is not easy. because you have to entrust your bitcoin in large enough quantities.

Don't listen to the hype, nobody can predict where the price will go. Isn't it expected for people in a bitcoin forum to be bullish about it without looking at it from a neutral perspective?

Just base on what you see on the market, dont follow those stupid persons who says" halving is coming, time sell, or buy now sell later because of halving" this are just there speculations, no one prove that this will happen..

i agree that halving effect (expecting a big rise) is just a hype, but i think this hype alone is effective enough to make the price rise.
just look at ETH which is the biggest hype of 2016, it grew maybe more than 1000% just because of hype and social media spamming.

it is all about speculation and hype and social media spamming. if bitcoin is the only crypto currency out there, then there is a possibility of these kind of price increase while halving . but the price might increase as said because of the hype , but the price will certainly come down because there will be a massive selling which will push the price down. so these are the facts .

ehm do not expect a pump before or quickly after the halving, it can happen at any time, the same for the dump after the pump, the point is that there is a huge good sentiment coming, because the halving make everyone happy

so a massive buy order it's very likely to be initiated because of the halving itself, then you can add the less dumping from the miner, which is also a thing that help demand

The problem is that people have way too high predictions when it comes to the block halving. They have seen what happened with the Litecoin price and think it will be the same with Bitcoin. They only don't understand that Litecoin was pumped by a Chinese group back then.

yeah...that and some very strong hands with very deep pockets pumping it, supporting it, pumping it, supporting it.