Bitcoin Forum

Article here

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704372504578289922761002366.html#articleTabs_article%3D0 (http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704372504578289922761002366.html#articleTabs_article%3D0)

Although I'm a huge fan of Bitcoin, I was never really a fan of gold, and have usually advised people against buying it. Partly because of the shady overpriced pushers, costly storage, and difficulty of selling it later, and mostly due to studies that show that over the very long term, your gold investments will gain you maybe a 3% return. I believe stocks are a much better alternative.

This article, however, brings up some problems that I believe may foreshadow some issues we may have with Bitcoin. Despite gold's wide acceptance, it still fluctuates wildly, is a poor currency hedge, and is subject to manipulations. Will Bitcoin fall to the same fate, or will its wider use and acceptance help with that? (Since you can't really trade gold that easily, it mostly sits out of sight in vaults, while you can carry bitcoins on a phone and send and receive them as easily as credit card transactions). Thoughts?

Alternative for what?
Gold is a safety net for the absolutely worst financial situations you could imagine. You might be able to use bitcoin in such a situation but good luck selling stocks during a real economic crisis or personal crisis.

Is it overvalued for that purpose? Who the frack cares?

Is it me or is looking at the inflation rate or the real interest rate of 1 country, then comparing it to a globally traded commodity a flawed way of thinking?

Not only that, I do consider it a strawman argument.

I'm assuming you mean a worse situation than this?

I don't really believe a total collapse is possible. The reason is the world is just waaaay to damn big. If the USA, Canada, Europe, and China collapsed, we still have India, Africa, and all of South America who will gradly buy up their now much cheaper products.
But, even if there was a catastrophic world-wide collapse, would anyone even be interested in gold? And would bitcoin fare any better?

Oh dear, another American believing in the amazing free market economy that doesn't exist  ::), stocks are not the better alternative, in fact, they could well be the worst, why? Because like government bonds they're just worthless pieces of paper. If you look at the most commonly traded stocks ( from what I saw it was telecommunications like Vodafone, not a typo that's just how they listed it :D ) you will see that most stock traders are riding the volatility of the stocks thinking they're stable. Look at their earnings, study their EPS and of course check the P.E's, there's also the most basic of basic stuff like what there revenue is, mining and oil is where it's at in reality and that includes gold because they're consistently making profits but the trade volume is low right now. I guarantee you though once the crises hits, all the stocks will go on a sell frenzy just like 2008 - 2009 and then the commodities are just going to go higher and higher because of all the inflation the governments are causing.

What you have to realise is as well that China isn't going to collapse either unless it lets the U.S and Europe drag it down, I suspect many western countries will end up like Greece is now, just about any other country that has a surplus and hasn't been doing phony practices which is what this is all really about will be fine.

Or perhaps inflation was really only 220% per year rather than 250%. With that level of hyperinflation, accurate estimates must be rather difficult. Personally, I would trust the gold market over researchers' estimates of the inflation rate.

At first I do not believe this research until I see the data myself.
Second, a 70% drop is better than a 100% drop, which if you pick the wrong stock is almost a certainty in this situation. You might pick the right one but then how do you think your chances are if you don't? You plan on starving?

Of course there are other safety nets like land, real estate, food, tools and other machinery but none of those are as transportable as gold.
Bitcoin isn't really for the worst situations since it depends on infrastructure and it depends on the circumstances of course.

It won't?  China has a symbiotic relationship with the west.  It depends on the US and Europe to purchase its exports.  If the US and Europe collapse, how exactly does China "not get dragged down" with everyone else?

As for Greece, it is rather insignificant in terms of the world economy.  The only reason Greece gets a lot of attention is because if Greece fails, people are worried that much bigger economies (like Italy or Spain) may follow.  In other words, systemic collapse.  A collapse of the two largest economies in the world (the US and the European Union) would not leave anyone "fine." 

You don't "pick the right stock," you pick a hugely diversified portfolio of both local and international stocks. If your country falls, there's a good chance the others won't. And even with something like the 2008 crash, just keep buying while it's cheap, and wait for the rebound. (If something like 3/4th of professional stock managers who pick stocks still can't outperform the market as a whole, I sure as hell won't bother either, and will just buy the market)

But, regardless, I don't think any of the points in the article are in question, are they? If they are, the counterpoints of "No, no, it actually IS all those things the article says it isn't. Take my word for it!" aren't very good counter-arguments. Besides, I'm mostly concerned about bitcoin's fate regarding this. Could it eventually be subject to manipulation and similar issues?

You have the assumption that gold is an inflation hedge, but it is not.  It is a systemic failure hedge.

4 words:

Austrian Business Cycle Theory.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCmwRN5gjOo

China is perfectly capable of consuming the goods it produces and it has other countries to trade with besides US and Europe, the idea that China 'depends' on the US and Europe is neo-keynesian bullshit propaganda fed to us at an early age through state schools. China would actually be better off if it cut us loose because they are actually the ones holding our countries together with their surplus, how do you think we keep borrowing so much beyond what we can actually pay back?

We don't trade anything with them for the most part except worthless paper, let alone goods that are actually worth anything so how the hell are they dependent on us for anything? You should check out Peter Schiffs island economy story because it does an excellent job of explaining this kind of thinking in a correct way, no country actually 'needs' another country to consume its goods, especially when they're giving it away in return for nothing. It's not just China who are being scammed like this as well, it's Germany too as well as other places like India and Brazil that have raw resources, manufacturing etc.

Edit: Actually here you go: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlWpGm9POwQ

This makes absolutely no sense.  So what you're saying is China doesn't need the US and only receives worthless paper.  If that's the case then why would they continue to trade?  Yes, China is the largest foreign holder of US debt but they continue to purchase it because they need to continue their (unsustainable) growth rate.  You can't simply take out the US and the European Union, which individually are double the GDP of China, and think everything will be hunky dory.

Why do you think Germany is still in the Euro and continues to bail out countries like Greece?  Germany is hardly known for their charitable nature.  The reason is if they left the Euro and returned to the Deutsche Mark they would be screwed.  Why?  Because like China they're a heavy exporter and the strongest of the European union.  If they left, the Euro would rapidly devalue (as countries default on sovereign debt) and the Deutsche Mark would take off like a rocket.  Being a heavy exporter, this would cause a great amount of damage to their economy. 

Every country is doing what they're doing because it's in their best interest.  China isn't buying worthless paper because they love America.  Germany isn't saving Greece because they want a unified Europe.  No, they're doing it because it's economics 101 and if they don't, they go down with the ship too. 

In the short run their economy would need to undergo a dramatic structuring yes, but longer-term, I think Lethn is correct.

Why do the Chinese and Germans continu with it then? 
My guess: because clinging on to the believe that everything will work out is very human.
Because cutting your losses and telling your people that a lot of the wealth they think they had was an illusion is political suicide.
Because kicking the can down the road is the "responsible" thing to do nowadays.

Economics question: How do you continue a large growth rate by buying someone else's debt (aka giving someone else money)?

The problem with your logic here is that there is no person called "Germany".  Rather, persons with acting on their own interests represent the nation of Germany.   There are German citizens who can take advantage of Euro printing for their own interests.  There may be others who would benefit from a return the Mark.  There are probably others who are paid well for claiming that strong currency would hurt the economy, as you have claimed here..  generally those economists are paid by those who can benefit from monetary inflation.  From the point of view of a citizen or private business owner, its hard to see how being robbed (having your currency devalued) is a good thing.  Your claim that a heavy exporter would be hurt by having their assets go up in value is difficult for me to follow and has been beaten down several times in this forum. 


 

I'll give you one more example, the Swiss Franc.  Why did the Swiss National Bank peg to the Euro if a highly overvalued currency is a good thing for an economy?

In Sept 2011:



http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/sep/06/switzerland-pegs-swiss-franc-euro

It's a global economy.  To SELL globally, you need to have buyers in other currencies be able to afford your product.  If the price of your product skyrockets (currency appreciation), it becomes more expensive to your buyers (importers) and thus, they will buy less.  This is basic economics.  If this was "beaten down" several times on this forum, then by all means, post some examples where an overvalued currency is good in the long-term for a country that conducts heavily in international trade.  My examples are above, I'll wait for yours.

I agree with the article that those are not good reasons to hold gold, however I would be happy to hold gold myself (and bitcoins for that matter) despite those reasons. I believe things happen in cycles and just now it is gold's time. Faith in fiat money backed by nothing and created out of thin air by central banks will continue to evaporate more and more. Eventually there will be a stampede towards gold. Which we can already see the beginnings of with countries wanting to repatriate their gold. I don't know the timescale for the peak but I feel it is inevitable and will be many levels higher than today's price. Fiat money is caught in a death spiral and is heading down the toilet.

On the subject of bitcoins I don't think they are as susceptible to the shananigans that go on suppressing metals because of various reasons which I've mentioned in my blog. http://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2013/02/07/the-start-of-a-new-bitcoin-mania/

If the United States of America economy collapsed then the world economy would collapse.

I actually tend to think that comparing things to globally traded commodities (that are always in demand, like food and gold) is a great way to hedge. Ultimately, we use stores of value (like currency and gold) to trade for commodities that we need, like food and other basic necessities. If your store of value can now buy half of the food it used to buy, on a global scale, either food everywhere in the world got more expensive or your store of value became cheaper. Either way, your store of value gets you less - which means its value drops. That's just how it is. In my opinion comparing to as many globally traded commodities is the best way to get a broad picture on the value of your store of value.

The global scale is to exclude droughts, famines, and other phenomena that skew value only locally and therefore not of interest as an encompassing measure.

Perhaps I misunderstood you, but why is such a flawed way of thinking?

You misunderstood me.  I agree with your way of thinking.
But in the article they say things like " in the last three decades the real interest rate in the UK shows only a small correlation with gold price" and conclude that gold prices and real interest rates aren't really correlated.  What I am saying is that you have to take into account the other world economies and what the real interest rate in those countries is if you want to say anything decent about the correlation of gold with real interest rates.

Perfect example!  Thanks, I have been thinking about this one too.  

First, imagine yourself in the shoes of a SNB representative / employee.  You don't need to follow the news of the names and dates of the moves (yes there have been scandals in the news there) involved to realize, yes, of course you could have made a bundle on this deal and probably still can as the "infinite wall"  at 1.2 Euro is still there.  What are they going to do with all the euros they have bought?  They will still buy as many as you want to see at 1.2, by creating francs.  You asked why they are printing all these new Francs.  In my opinion free money is the real incentive there.      

Seems to me quite a sad day (ok, ~1.5 years already) for the strong history of the franc.  

To sell globally, yes you need to price your product competitively at its quality level.  If you are selling the product for bitcoins, gold, francs, euros, whatever, you will need to find a price range to deal with your customer.  As a company, if your assets become very valuable, how is this a bad thing?  Yes there are details, minimum wage laws, taxes, imports, etc..  but this quote:


is a total joke imho.  "Massive overevaluation of the franc"  (sic) has been an incredible boon to the Swiss economy over the last century, while other central banks were busy looting the citizens with savings there seems to have been some measure of anti-corruption or something in place which has saved Switzerland.  CHF was worth about 0.25 USD 40 years ago.  You might notice that Nestle, Basel's bio-industry, watches, etc. have done just fine during this period of "massive overevaluation".  Sadly it appears that is over now, if the national bank is issuing such deceptive statements and following or making deals with other monetary bandits.  

The real losers here are the holders of CHF, and unfortunately the reputation of the banking sector there is losing as well.  On the plus side, the infrastructure is still some of the best in the world, there is a great educational system, a skilled and organized work force, and I expect the large fund of euros purchased with newly created francs will not be as easily looted as it would be in NY or DC.  



  

 

 

The world economy would suffer, sure, but it would definitely not collapse. We don't produce and buy all of the world's products. Many places in the Middle East, South America, and Africa will barely be affected, since they don't really do a lot of business with US, anyway. Plus USA is only 350,000 million people out of the 7 billion population. US is important, but it's not THAT important.

As a company, if you lose 50% of your customers, how is that a good thing?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/exports (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/exports)


That's a decline of 21.6%. 



In other words, Euro, USD, Euro, and Euro.  And you still can't see why the SNB is trying to peg to the Euro?  I really don't know how I can make it any clearer. 

BingGo!
Most people fall into this trap when thinking commodity vs. their own currency.On the other hand, USD's inflation rate is definitely a prime driving factor for gold. So as other global commodities.

No, I don't see.  I'm not sure who the SNB players are, how they are connected with the big 7, what kind of relationships they have with the ECB or other banks, and what Swiss industries they work with.  Sorry, I'm just not connected enough to know more and heck if we did we wouldn't be posting here :) 

Yes, it sucks to lose your customers.  Yes there are difficulties in the Euro block economy of which Switzerland is a part.
No, I don't see any evidence to believe that having a strong currency is the reason for these problems. 
If you want to pay employees less, why not just lower their salary? 

Ok maybe your'e getting it.


It's starting to come together.


Damn, so close.  I provided you with examples, charts, quotes, articles....  If you don't see it I'm not going to waste anymore effort in trying to help you along.  If you're willing to bring something to the table, some modicum of evidence to support your argument, then maybe we can continue.  Otherwise I'm done.
 

 ??? And with that, I'm out.

If you see gold as an investment, then yes, there are many, better, alternatives to gold. However if you view gold as money, or a hedge against inflation, economic, and political turmoil, then you will see it makes a wonderful insurance policy. Gold (and silver). With this view, gold is seen as a protection for your investments, not an investment in and of itself.

Storage is only costly if you have someone else hold onto it for you. There really is no difficulty in selling it though, and I'm not really sure what you mean by shady overpriced pushers.

You provided me with quotes from people who are printing money for themselves, providing not believable excuses on unscientific grounds why its ok for them to confiscate wealth of others.  Philipp Hildebrand said so. 

I can prove pirate will give the money back: "I will repay soon" he said.  Want a chart with that? 

I brought to the table counterexamples of your theory, which as I understand it was: an appreciating currency means difficulties for your production economic interests.  My counterexample was Switzerland, 1970-2010.  I specifically mentioned Nestle, watch industry, and biotech.

Granted, it's hard to impossible to make a controlled experiment in economics.  In this case, your hypothesis predicts great growth in industrial sector in Zimbabwe, Argentina, and Venezuela about now.  Also USA in the last 15 years should have shown great growth in export sector according to your theory.  Forgive me for not being strongly compelled.   
 

 

August 2011



Straight from the Wall St. Journal, about your "counterexample" Nestle.  Now please stop talking, you're just embarrassing yourself.

Another way to put it is that gold retained 30% of it's purchasing power over that time period, while the Brazilian currency retained pretty much 0%. Plus, worldwide, gold prices dropped for everyone by as much when accounting for inflation.

Also, the argument about gold being too volatile is factually incorrect. Gold has actually been less volatile than the S&P over the last 6 years, and has increased in value every year for the past 10 years.

I'm not a goldbug, but it has a much better risk to reward ratio than the stock market does.

So August 2011 is month which is a good indicator of performance 1970-2010?  How did Nestle do during the period I mentioned, in which the Franc had some 400% gain against the dollar?

Anyway lets talk about your WSJ quote, because I disagree with it anyway and it is a bit deceptive, seeing as in Aug. 2011 there was a small correction in price but the stock was still up ~50% YTD, and it implies companies would prefer their assets to depreciate in value.     

How about we rephrase it a bit:

The strong bitcoin, which has gained 1000% against the dollar, has been an enormous drag on Silk Road merchants and Alpaca Sock exporters.

Do you still buy it? 

Well I do admit there is a grain of truth in what you say, in that relatively wealthy nations have to pay higher labor costs and so find it difficult to compete in certain foreign markets with cheap labor.  Perhaps you will also admit that the motivation of individuals when robbing the wealth of a nation is not only to increase the competitive edge of the export sector in cheap manufacturing?   

This is a common goldbug claim, and it is retarded.  Obviously gold performs better than fiat like USD that targets an inflation rate of 2-3% with periods of double digit inflation in the 1980's.  In the long run, fiat currency is the worst investment around.  It goes to zero by design.  To think this matters, you have to ignore the fact that no one "invests" in USD by hoarding it under their mattress.  People invest in productive assets like stocks.  Not only do stock prices tend to beat inflation, they get a dividend every year. 

You should not use gold to estimate inflation, unless you think we were deflating for 20 years before 2000.  Gold does not track inflation.

CurbsideProphet, nice job owning hashman.  People listen to Peter Schiff and think they know everything about economics.  They can have fun losing 40-70% of their money with that thinking:
http://www.businessinsider.com/2009/1/peter-schiffs-clients-got-hosed-this-year-too

Recap of gold valuation.

The gold production (supply inflation) is currently about 2 % of the existing gold. Forces value down.

Some of that is ornamental. If gold should become money again, some of that would be used as money. Forces value down.

If gold should become money again, it will obtain exchange value, or moneyness. Forces value up.

The holding preferences. This is not predictable. Some will save more when they get more, some will consume more, it is different for every individual.

Number of individuals on earth increases. Forces value up.

Saving will reduce mass of gold used for money. Forces value up.

Investments will increase productivity, prices on goods go down. Price of money is the inverse of goods prices. Forces value up.

Higher value spurs more gold production. Forces value down.

Did I forget something?

Summa summarum, the future is unknown.

Difference to bitcoin:
a) Inflation of bitcoins available at a known rate, inflation will eventually end, after that loss will ensure diminishing number of bitcoins available.
b) Bitcoins are money now.

Could you please clarify how this claim is retarded? Yes, stocks were most likely better than gold during that time period, although I don't know because original article didn't provide that data. Lets look at how well stocks do against inflation:

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/SPX-Dow-Nasdaq-Since-Their-2000-Highs.php

The last chart shows stocks invested at the high in 2000 still haven't recovered when taking inflation into the equation, and including reinvested dividends. That doesn't even include taxes and fees that are near impossible to avoid.

Keep in mind that there is a conflict of interest between the author and the subject.

You picked the height of the tech bubble to start your stock market graph.  If you are capable of predicting this well, you could make 640,000% return only making one trade every ten years since 1970.
http://media.peakprosperity.com/images/yir2012-5.jpg
http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/80283/2012-year-review

Unfortunately, almost no one can make predictions this good, so we have to rely on long run averages.  Productive assets like stocks crush unproductive ones like gold in the long run.

What is worse is when governments force the population to invest in stocks through superannuation leading to the situation where you can lose 50% of your retirement savings because a stock market crash happens near the end of your career.