Bitcoin Forum

This thread is closed a rollover next prize = 0.20

New thread is here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1436869.msg14536905#msg14536905




Just setting up.  we had a winner last jump

Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s  so  the winner is   +0.8 = wpt1wpt1


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1402986.0


picks open in 4 days or so contest rules are not changed.

we start picks on the 600th block and end picks on the 1200th


uᴉoɔʇᴉq Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   171,099,415,155 (+3.39%)
Adjust time:   After 1416 Blocks, About 14.2 days >>> we start  when this is 1416
Hashrate(?):   1,183,484,225 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:  





uᴉoɔʇᴉq Difficulty:   165,496,835,118
Estimated Next Difficulty:   171,099,415,155 (+3.39%)
Adjust time:   After 816 Blocks, About 14.2 days>>> end picks at 816
Hashrate(?):   1,183,484,225 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 10.2 minutes
3 blocks: 30.6 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:  


picks are 1.1    1.2   1.3  plus or minus

Will that big peak of hash power that we keep seeing pop up ever stay permanently?  I hope not, but at least the 3 peaks that show on the bitwisdom graph are all about the same so it could be the same gear coming on an off and not 3 separate sets of hundreds of petahash.

I suspect just that.  which means someone has 75-200ph to be turned on and off.

This has shown up on and off since nov.or early dec.

So good result last Period, let's hope the trend continues. Very early days for this Period but we are just over +10% so far.

Off to Vegas for a different style of Gambling Tomorrow, wonder if they accept BTC yet?  :)

Rich

Price is up a little around 419, from day low of around 414.   So nothing huge but a good thing to see.  I really want 425 this change... but  I wanted it last and did not happen and stay.

Changes have been pretty nice to use lately.   I keep being afraid it's going to change... but happily wrong on that part.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   171,703,218,242 (+2.91%)

Adjust time:   After 1762 Blocks, About 12.1 days  we start picks in 346 blocks at 1416

Hashrate(?):   1,158,561,229 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.3 minutes
Updated:   

What are the  rules for new guys to pick?

You need to be joined before the 1st of Feb 2016 and have 30 posts.



Back to the stats.
First we are at block

405558 (Main Chain)   2016-04-03 14:25:17

405216 (Main Chain)   2016-04-01 06:34:35

so   342 blocks made in 56 hours and 50 minutes

6 x 56 = 336 + 5 = 341 would be normal

so 342/341 =  0.293% jump = yeah!!!   so real time =  about 0.3%  very nice for now.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   171,819,484,708 (+2.98%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  this is future number and it is high
Adjust time:   After 1674 Blocks, About 11.5 days     Picks open at 1416
Hashrate(?):   1,155,498,866 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.2 minutes
Updated:   10:55 (1.3 minutes ago)


I  look for good number today and the 4th.

Tomb Sweeping ends on the fourth so  a move up on the 5th seems likely.

In other news an earthquake may have delayed the new chips i will get a link.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1291890.msg14386376#msg14386376

  I joined the forum on March 2nd  and have 8 posts. So when the next difficulty adjustment comes about April 15th  I won't be on site for 2 months.
I read your  older threads and you seem to update the joining date correct me if I am wrong.

Looks like the "big peak" is turning back on, network hash rate is rising.  These peaks are timings with the diff adjustments it appears, which I think is a good thing.  I better thing would be if the hash went away for good but it doesn't appear like that is going to happen.  I wonder if one of these times it will just stay on...

Most likely some outdated miners taking advantage of the difficulty. I imagine a few PH/S of S5s and S7s turning temporarily on for a day or two and waiting for the next difficulty adjustment. If they stayed on, difficulty would begin to skyrocket again as a few PH/S of miners would enter pools, so it's a good thing generally.

we are at :

 (+3.43%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   172,566,203,841 (+3.43%)
Adjust time:   After 1476 Blocks, About 10.1 days >>>>>>>>>>   60 blocks to start picking
Hashrate(?):   1,255,417,660 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.4 minutes
6 blocks: 58.9 minutes
Updated:   16:15 (1.3 minutes ago)

All right, I'll start with a rather low guess of...

+6.5 = VRobb

Game on!  Thanks philip!

THis pick was made while I was sleeping but it was made after we passed 1416 so it is good.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   172,305,739,382 (+3.27%)
Adjust time:   After 1379 Blocks, About 9.4 days
Hashrate(?):   1,245,185,923 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.5 minutes
6 blocks: 59.0 minutes
Updated:   8:10 (4.3 minutes ago)




-1.2 = philipma1957


+6.5 = VRobb   >>>>>  dude the pick is too damn high ;D ;D ;D (Just kidding around)

+ 4.6 = Psi

THis pick was made while I was sleeping but it was made after we passed 1416 so it is good.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   172,305,739,382 (+3.27%)
Adjust time:   After 1379 Blocks, About 9.4 days
Hashrate(?):   1,245,185,923 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.5 minutes
6 blocks: 59.0 minutes
Updated:   8:10 (4.3 minutes ago)




-1.2 = philipma1957

+ 4.6 = Psi

+6.5 = VRobb   >>>>>  dude the pick is too damn high ;D ;D ;D (Just kidding around)

ok, I'll play:

+1.2 = talks_cheep

:P

+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+3.5 = ingiltere
I was very close last threads and won one of them. This time I'll make an early pick and wait. :)

Game on!  !




-1.2 = philipma1957
+1.2 = talks_cheep

+3.5 = ingiltere
+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+ 4.6 = Psi

+6.5 = VRobb   >>>>>  dude the pick is too damn high ;D ;D ;D (Just kidding around)

+2.5 = leowonderful
I've been 3 off or so last time, let's make this one on the bullseye! :)

Game on!  !




-1.2 = philipma1957
+1.2 = talks_cheep
+2.5 = leowonderful
+3.5 = ingiltere
+4.2 = VirosaGITS

+ 4.6 = Psi

+6.5 = VRobb   >>>>>  dude the pick is too damn high ;D ;D ;D (Just kidding around)

LOL, frankly I hope you're right but I keep seeing like 200PHs switching on and off from somewhere...  ::)

yeah we both fear they turn it up and keep it up like they did in Feb.

+4.4 = Amph

+3.1 = tertius993

0 = adaseb

+3.8 = frank0929

I think under %4 diff change won't hurt anybody, considering last one was very low positive, this one is expected to be higher eventually.

+1.5 = mocacinno

Game on!  !




-1.2 = philipma1957

0 = adaseb

+1.2 = talks_cheep
+1.5 = mocacinno
+2.5 = leowonderful
+3.1 = tertius993
+3.5 = ingiltere

+3.6 = Fruitsbasket

+3.8 = frank0929
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.4 = Amph
+ 4.6 = Psi

+6.5 = VRobb   >>>>>  dude the pick is too damn high ;D ;D ;D (Just kidding around)



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   172,881,088,020 (+3.61%)
Adjust time:   After 1228 Blocks, About 8.3 days
Hashrate(?):   1,311,150,500 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.3 minutes
6 blocks: 58.6 minutes
Updated:   6:50 (5.7 minutes ago)

+5.5 = vapourminer

Hello,

I am not sure what this all about is and if it costs btc to enter.

My guess is +3.6

it is a free contest and you are now in it.

you need the diff to finish from +3.30 to +3.39 % to win 0.1 btc


next time you enter please use this format:


+3.6 = Fruitsbasket


I can just drag  it into place and not have to spell your forum name name

We feed some stray cats. Since our indoor cats keep striking out recently, I asked an outdoor cat for the difficulty this time.

+2.6 = edonkey

We named this particular cat "Lucky". Hopefully he lives up to his name.

Okay I will do that next time, sorry for that.
Does it mean that I win when it is between +3.6~3.7 ?

no   it means either i fucked up   due to you lack of putting the first guess in the correct format or you quickly altered from 3.3 to 3.6

so lets start over.  

do you want 3.3   which gives you 3.30 to 3.39

or do you want 3.6  which gives you 3.60 to 3.69

most likely it is my error due to the incorrect format


so please let me know

+3.3=Fruitsbasket


+3.6=Fruitsbasket

i will fix it.

Sorry, it was my mistake.
I think 3.3 is good for now, thanks for solving it.

Well the peak has now surpassed both of the two previous peaks, so whoever is turning this on and off has even more gear to play with now.  I bet we'll see it all hit the network before June and stick until the halving.  Right now I think they're just testing...

Still too soon to make a good guess, gotta watch this trend a bit longer.

+4.3 = Notlist3d

Coin price is over 420... so not horrible this round still want to see it jump, but it's been slow on that. 

+4.1 = HerbPean

Thanks Phil !

+ 4.5 = FUBAR

First time doing this hope this is all I need to do.

Game on!  !




-1.2 = philipma1957

0 = adaseb

+1.2 = talks_cheep
+1.5 = mocacinno
+2.5 = leowonderful
+2.6 = edonkey
+3.1 = tertius993

+3.3 = Fruitsbasket  >>>> corrected
+3.5 = ingiltere

+3.8 = frank0929
+4.1 = HerbPean
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.3 = Notlist3d
+4.4 = Amph
+4.5 = FUBAR-BDHR > corrected name
+4.6 = Psi
+5.5 = vapourminer
+6.5 = VRobb   >>>>>  dude the pick is too damn high ;D ;D ;D (Just kidding around)

are you playing  for FUBAR ?

or are you playing for FUBAR_BDHR?

I assume

+4.5 = FUBAR-BDHR

Yea FUBAR-BDHR.  That's the trouble with having a name that everyone else started using when than dang movie came out hard to get just FUBAR anymore.

+4.0 = Ankara

Good luck miners, I'm out already.

Game on!  !




-1.2 = philipma1957

0 = adaseb

+1.2 = talks_cheep
+1.5 = mocacinno
+2.5 = leowonderful
+2.6 = edonkey
+3.1 = tertius993

+3.3 = Fruitsbasket  >>>> corrected
+3.5 = ingiltere

+3.8 = frank0929
+4.0 = Ankara
+4.1 = HerbPean
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.3 = Notlist3d
+4.4 = Amph
+4.5 = FUBAR-BDHR > corrected name
+4.6 = Psi
+5.5 = vapourminer
+6.5 = VRobb   >>>>>  dude the pick is too damn high ;D ;D ;D (Just kidding around)

+ 3.7 = pusttiu

+7.7% Mikestang

I dunno, I just got a bad feeling is all...

+5.2 = notaek

Lets see. 8)

+5.6 = zebedee

Thanks

Game on!  !




-1.2 = philipma1957

0 = adaseb

+1.2 = talks_cheep
+1.5 = mocacinno
+2.5 = leowonderful
+2.6 = edonkey
+3.1 = tertius993

+3.3 = Fruitsbasket  >>>> corrected
+3.5 = ingiltere
+ 3.7 = pusttiu
+3.8 = frank0929
+4.0 = Ankara
+4.1 = HerbPean
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.3 = Notlist3d
+4.4 = Amph
+4.5 = FUBAR-BDHR > corrected name
+4.6 = Psi
+5.2 = notaek
+5.5 = vapourminer
+5.6 = zebedee
+6.5 = VRobb   >>>>>  dude the pick is too damn high ;D ;D ;D (Just kidding around)


+7.7% Mikestang
[/quote]

Hashrate hit the new all time high. We're going to see at least 3% rise in Diff this period. Hopefully it was just due to variance, but more likely due to Bitmain producing and selling the crippled S7 with a single fan. Can I change my pick to +3.2?

Bitwisdom is up:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:    173,929,554,184 (+4.24%)
Adjust time:    After 1077 Blocks, About 7.2 days
Hashrate(?):    1,258,413,935 GH/s

And we still have time to go.  I kept thinking S7's would made a effect but seemed to be small maybe this change they finnaly will pump out a bunch of new 1 fan design.  This does not scare me as much as next gen, next gen scares me once they hit it.

+3.9 = NeuroticFish

(I am new to this)

Thanks

no pick changes are allowed

+3.6 = tomcat2

Newbie accounts are not allowed to make picks.  Sadly people abuse it if allowed.   So you will not be able to pick.

This is definitely not variance, this is a farm or farms turning on and off massive amounts of gear, it is much more than the latest batch of S7s would account for.

http://i63.tinypic.com/zyg7mf.jpg

I'm relieved to see it dropping back down, I'm still afraid it's going to kick back up this period, although it does seem whoever is responsible for these peaks is timing the hash along with the adjustment period so as not to affect the next one.

They could have sold S7's with 2 fan's from data center on previous batches with Bitmain knowing they would do a new even lower cost 1 fan version.   So it's possible they sold stock they had on shelves knowing they could make money, and do a new batch of even cheaper S7's.  Which could be hitting shelves now.

I'm really hoping it's current gen.  As I have said a few other times next gen scares me on current gear, so I hope not next gen being turned on somewhere.

+6.2 = fr4nkthetank

+5.3  = indiemax

thanks ;D

+5.4 = flikflak

thanks!

+8.4 = wpt1wpt1   Need a repeat yooooohooooooo

Tomcat I require 30 posts and 2 months on the forum.

so may 26th and 30 posts that have quality and I will let you play.


We had a big rollover prize and 3 or 4 newbies joined and picked four numbers  so I put in a time delay + post delay  for new people.

I´ll go for +1.5%. They´ll probably turn off some gear towards the end of the adjustment period. The BTC price is pretty depressed so the increase should be modest.

Game on!  !




-1.2 = philipma1957

0 = adaseb

+1.2 = talks_cheep
+1.5 = mocacinno
+1.6 = Rizia2345 -- note: I gave you this as +1.5 was picked let me know if it is good
+2.5 = leowonderful
+2.6 = edonkey
+3.1 = tertius993

+3.3 = Fruitsbasket  >>>> corrected
+3.5 = ingiltere
+ 3.7 = pusttiu
+3.8 = frank0929
+3.9 = NeuroticFish

+4.0 = Ankara
+4.1 = HerbPean
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.3 = Notlist3d
+4.4 = Amph
+4.5 = FUBAR-BDHR > corrected name
+4.6 = Psi
+5.2 = notaek
+5.3  = indiemax
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = vapourminer
+5.6 = zebedee
+6.2= fr4nkthetan
+6.5 = VRobb   >>>>>  dude the pick is too damn high ;D ;D ;D (Just kidding around)


+7.7% Mikestang
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   175,640,797,032 (+5.27%)
Adjust time:   After 993 Blocks, About 6.6 days >> picks end at 816 a day or so
Hashrate(?):   1,242,196,692 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.6 minutes
6 blocks: 57.1 minutes
Updated:   21:30 (3.2 minutes ago)

All right thanks, 1.6 is just fine.

Good luck, r

+4.8 = blindminer

No worries thanks for the reply.

Game on!  !




-1.2 = philipma1957

0 = adaseb

+1.2 = talks_cheep
+1.5 = mocacinno
+1.6 = Rizia2345 -- note: I gave you this as +1.5 was picked let me know if it is good
+2.5 = leowonderful
+2.6 = edonkey
+3.1 = tertius993

+3.3 = Fruitsbasket  >>>> corrected
+3.5 = ingiltere
+ 3.7 = pusttiu
+3.8 = frank0929
+3.9 = NeuroticFish

+4.0 = Ankara
+4.1 = HerbPean
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.3 = Notlist3d
+4.4 = Amph
+4.5 = FUBAR-BDHR > corrected name
+4.6 = Psi
+4.8 = blindminer
+5.2 = notaek
+5.3  = indiemax
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = vapourminer
+5.6 = zebedee
+6.2= fr4nkthetan
+6.5 = VRobb   >>>>>  dude the pick is too damn high ;D ;D ;D (Just kidding around)


+7.7% Mikestang
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   173,739,520,545 (+4.13%)
Adjust time:   After 912 Blocks, About 6.1 days >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> we stop at 816 maybe 12-16 hours from now
Hashrate(?):   1,226,717,014 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.9 minutes
Updated:   11:35 (4.0 minutes ago


4.13%

Not been following things at all....

+3.6 = RichBC

Hey Philipma, if it´s allowed I´d like to move my pick from +1.6 to +2.4. If it´s not possible then it´s all good as it stands.
Thanks, r

You can't.

+3.4 = alh

It would ruin the picks if this was allowed.  This week a few have asked (this is at least second time).  But the whole point is first ones to pick get first pick, so the more early you pick the more choices you have open.

But if you wait you might get a lot better idea of what change will be, but picks might be taken.  So part of the fun is trying to pick best point when to pick.

Game on!  !




-1.2 = philipma1957

0 = adaseb

+1.2 = talks_cheep

+1.5 = mocacinno
+1.6 = Rizia2345 -- note: I gave you this as +1.5 was picked let me know if it is good

+2.5 = leowonderful
+2.6 = edonkey

+3.1 = tertius993

+3.3 = Fruitsbasket  >>>> corrected
+3.4 = alh
+3.5 = ingiltere
+3.6 = RichBC  >>>>>> How is or was Vegas?
+3.7 = pusttiu
+3.8 = frank0929
+3.9 = NeuroticFish
+4.0 = Ankara
+4.1 = HerbPean
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.3 = Notlist3d
+4.4 = Amph
+4.5 = FUBAR-BDHR > corrected name
+4.6 = Psi

+4.8 = blindminer


+5.2 = notaek
+5.3  = indiemax
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = vapourminer
+5.6 = zebedee

+6.2= fr4nkthetan

+6.5 = VRobb   >>>>>  dude the pick is too damn high ;D ;D ;D (Just kidding around)


+7.7% Mikestang
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty








Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   172,764,476,894 (+3.54%)
Adjust time:   After 881 Blocks, About 6.0 days
Hashrate(?):   1,211,033,378 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.2 minutes
6 blocks: 58.4 minutes
Updated:








No  we used to try that idea.  It was far too much work for me to do.

So we start later  at block  600 made  = 1416 left

And we end later at block 1200 made =   816 left


If you wait to say block 1190 made = 826 left   you are closer to knowing the answer but some one may have picked what you like.

If you pick at block 616 made = 1400 left   you are not close to knowing the answer  but you will have a lot of choice.

I always pick first an always pick -1.2%  as an homage to a former forum member.

if you look above we dropped to +3.54%  so you could win.

and for those that waited till now

+2.7
+2.8
+2.9
+3.0
+3.2  look okay

Yeah, I understand. I thought it was allowed until the picks were closed. It´s all good, r

Vegas is good. Blackjack conditions not as bad as I had expected, 10 years since we were here last. Up on the gambling but not enouh to pay for the Shows & Meals. Shooting in the Desert Tomorrow, need to pack in all the things we can't do in the UK.  :)


Rich

+3.2 = tlhIlwI

Game on!  !




-1.2 = philipma1957

0 = adaseb

+1.2 = talks_cheep

+1.5 = mocacinno
+1.6 = Rizia2345 -- note: I gave you this as +1.5 was picked let me know if it is good

+2.5 = leowonderful
+2.6 = edonkey

+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.3 = Fruitsbasket  >>>> corrected
+3.4 = alh
+3.5 = ingiltere
+3.6 = RichBC  >>>>>> How is or was Vegas?
+3.7 = pusttiu
+3.8 = frank0929
+3.9 = NeuroticFish
+4.0 = Ankara
+4.1 = HerbPean
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.3 = Notlist3d
+4.4 = Amph
+4.5 = FUBAR-BDHR > corrected name
+4.6 = Psi

+4.8 = blindminer


+5.2 = notaek
+5.3  = indiemax
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = vapourminer
+5.6 = zebedee

+6.2= fr4nkthetan

+6.5 = VRobb   >>>>>  dude the pick is too damn high ;D ;D ;D (Just kidding around)


+7.7% Mikestang
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   173,921,349,143 (+4.24%)
Adjust time:   After 859 Blocks, About 5.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,218,913,181 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.7 minutes
Updated:   19:45 (2.5 minutes ago)


43 blocks left for picks

Looking at 1 week price is a little disappointing.  - http://www.coindesk.com/price/ Were around 418 or so, so lost around 5 dollars or so from the high of the difficulty period.   

So not a huge loss, but also not the direction we want to go.  Difficulty is not a horrible change so that is good news so far. Would have liked less but last period of under 1 percent made me pretty happy so hard to argue if we stay under 5 percent this time. 

Game on!  !




-1.2 = philipma1957

0 = adaseb

+1.2 = talks_cheep

+1.5 = mocacinno
+1.6 = Rizia2345 -- note: I gave you this as +1.5 was picked let me know if it is good

+2.5 = leowonderful
+2.6 = edonkey

+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.3 = Fruitsbasket  >>>> corrected
+3.4 = alh
+3.5 = ingiltere
+3.6 = RichBC  >>>>>> How is or was Vegas?
+3.7 = pusttiu
+3.8 = frank0929
+3.9 = NeuroticFish
+4.0 = Ankara
+4.1 = HerbPean
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.3 = Notlist3d
+4.4 = Amph
+4.5 = FUBAR-BDHR > corrected name
+4.6 = Psi

+4.8 = blindminer


+5.2 = notaek
+5.3  = indiemax
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = vapourminer
+5.6 = zebedee

+6.2= fr4nkthetan

+6.5 = VRobb   >>>>>  dude the pick is too damn high ;D ;D ;D (Just kidding around)


+7.7% Mikestang
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   173,638,630,716 (+4.07%)
Adjust time:   After 836 Blocks, About 5.6 days
Hashrate(?):   1,237,824,499 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.8 minutes
Updated:   23:10 (5.0 minutes ago)



20 blocks left for picks


we are at 4% or so


https://bitcoincharts.com/

has us at 3% or so


Blocks   406397
Total BTC   15.410M
 
Difficulty   166851513283
Estimated   171877159263 in 835 blks
 
Network total   1262171.145 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.34 / 568 s


171877159263/166851513283 - 1 =   +3%

+4.7 = Veves1

Blocks closed at 816

You are more then 10 hours late.

I'm already thinking I speculated to low... which I don't like.   Hopefully difficulty does not keep going up but bitisdom is slightly over 5 now:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:    175,267,306,640 (+5.04%)
Adjust time:    After 745 Blocks, About 4.9 days
Hashrate(?):    1,228,895,774 GH/s

Game on!  !




-1.2 = philipma1957

0 = adaseb

+1.2 = talks_cheep

+1.5 = mocacinno
+1.6 = Rizia2345 -- note: I gave you this as +1.5 was picked let me know if it is good

+2.5 = leowonderful
+2.6 = edonkey

+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.3 = Fruitsbasket  >>>> corrected
+3.4 = alh
+3.5 = ingiltere
+3.6 = RichBC  >>>>>> How is or was Vegas?
+3.7 = pusttiu
+3.8 = frank0929
+3.9 = NeuroticFish
+4.0 = Ankara
+4.1 = HerbPean
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.3 = Notlist3d
+4.4 = Amph
+4.5 = FUBAR-BDHR > corrected name
+4.6 = Psi

+4.8 = blindminer


+5.2 = notaek
+5.3  = indiemax
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = vapourminer
+5.6 = zebedee

+6.2= fr4nkthetan

+6.5 = VRobb   >>>>>  dude the pick is too damn high ;D ;D ;D (Just kidding around)


+7.7% Mikestang
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   178,597,916,354 (+7.04%)
Adjust time:   After 618 Blocks, About 3.9 days
Hashrate(?):   1,277,021,312 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.1 minutes
Updated:   5:50 (6.1 minutes ago)




big time spike    and only a few days left  with  a little more luck this is a 8 or 9  % jumps which truly sucks

That´s quite the spike, given that the BTC price is pretty soft. Maybe it´ll fizzle, there´s four days yet until the adjustment. Is there any new mining equipment coming on line now? That new chip?

BW.com has  the model 11 and maybe now the model 16 most likely it is them and of course the cheap s-7

BW has been tracking around 80PH the last Week, they have been as high as 100PH a Month or so ago. But I am still not in Bitcoin mode... It's also raining in Vegas, which we had not planned on, we get enough of that in the UK.  :)


Rich

It certainly seems to want to go higher soon. Consolidation followed the big rise and then there´s resumption of the trend I suppose.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/assets/difficulty/bitcoin-hash_rate-all.png?1460307603

I think the new one fan S7 is very likely. For them to make a design change I think shows they planned on making quite a few for it to pay off.   So 1/2 fan cost could add up on filling up a data center.   

We also don't know when bitmain hits next gen.  It is likely they looked at designs due to next gen aswell (pure speculation there).

But bitwsidom just gets more ugly:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:    177,908,355,847 (+6.63%)
Adjust time:    After 567 Blocks, About 3.7 days
Hashrate(?):    1,322,509,643 GH/s

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   177,979,302,319 (+6.67%)  not nice
Adjust time:   After 520 Blocks, About 3.3 days
Hashrate(?):   1,320,179,630 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.8 minutes
6 blocks: 55.5 minutes
Updated:   20:30 (1.0 minutes ago)



https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   406712
Total BTC   15.418M
 
Difficulty   166851513283
Estimated   175774818287 in 520 blks         this = +5.346%   a little better
 
Network total   1324273.716 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.65 / 541 s

Yeah, but that block time of 9.2 minutes looks ominous. Three and a third day left; I guess they´ll tune down the hashrate. Not in the bet but I can imagine that it´ll end up maybe +3-4%.

i think its gonne be +2,5%

cheers

It has tailed off just a bit


 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   176,149,053,419 (+5.57%)
Adjust time:   After 455 Blocks, About 3.0 days
Hashrate(?):   1,316,839,182 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 28.0 minutes
6 blocks: 56.0 minutes
Updated:   7:20 (4.7 minutes ago)


-1.2 = philipma1957

0 = adaseb

+1.2 = talks_cheep

+1.5 = mocacinno
+1.6 = Rizia2345 -- note: I gave you this as +1.5 was picked let me know if it is good

+2.5 = leowonderful
+2.6 = edonkey

+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.3 = Fruitsbasket  >>>> corrected
+3.4 = alh
+3.5 = ingiltere
+3.6 = RichBC  >>>>>> How is or was Vegas?
+3.7 = pusttiu
+3.8 = frank0929
+3.9 = NeuroticFish
+4.0 = Ankara
+4.1 = HerbPean
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.3 = Notlist3d
+4.4 = Amph
+4.5 = FUBAR-BDHR > corrected name
+4.6 = Psi

+4.8 = blindminer


+5.2 = notaek
+5.3  = indiemax
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = vapourminer
+5.6 = zebedee

+6.2= fr4nkthetan

+6.5 = VRobb   >>>>>  dude the pick is too damn high Grin Grin Grin (Just kidding around)


+7.7% Mikestang
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1


the people in bold are the close ones

Ho well, I was hoping for a few more stable Diff and it looks like it's not going to happen for this one and the next one. This is huge ****** big push to 1330 Peta and more

Well, I see it a little more positive right now. We need another 130 PH/s to raise the difficulty up by 10% -> or in other numbers thats like 27196 of new S7's (worth $15.3 million without shipping) on the net.

I know I need more posts and time to enter this game do you plan to continue it past the half - ing ? 

I can't say yes or no.  I don't know if   BTC will be ruined by the ½ ing.

I will do 1  game past the ½ ing just because it should be an interesting time  for all of us.  After that I may stop.

I no longer do a signature campaign which helped to fund this game. Also  the original starter of the game no longer adds funds.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   174,923,952,518 (+4.84%)  dropping good!
Adjust time:   After 293 Blocks, About 1.9 days
Hashrate(?):   1,331,956,733 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.1 minutes
6 blocks: 56.3 minutes
Updated:   9:30 (9.2 minutes ago)

I was hoping for that, and not necessarily because of my vote...

I wonder what´s the total investment in bitcoin mining. Must be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Miners plus facilities and manpower. Maybe billions. Some of it must be pretty squeezed by now what with the big difficulty increases since last year. Investments usually mean debts.

Lots of companies are hurting due to bitmaintech's power in the game.

Make a new miner and the s-7 drops price to knock you out.

So the game changes from having good miners to having cheap power.

A one cent power cost and the s-7 crushes a .125 watt bitfury at four cent power.

Or a two cent power cost  makes the better s-7 plus which only bitmaintech has beat any other gear.

Yeah, it´s almost like they´ve been trying to wipe out the competition in the mining since last autumn. They have the best of both worlds anyway, they both make the equipment which is excellent in any gold rush, and they are a big player in mining.

They have been smart on being able out out price others gear.   Bitmain crushed SP20's with S5, they made a cheaper option and started a price war.  And they won. It seems to be repeating looking at S7 they have made it as low cost as I think they can with 1 fan variant.

I expect S7 to remain king in super low data centers as they can buy now and likely even after having is electricity 1-2 cents they I would guess make a profit still till a point.  For "normal" electricity people we will need next gen chips but these mega centers likely will not even after having.

 https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   175,723,990,304 (+5.32%)  < could be worse
Adjust time:   After 239 Blocks, About 1.5 days
Hashrate(?):   1,336,634,607 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.9 minutes
6 blocks: 55.9 minutes
Updated:   

-1.2 = philipma1957

0 = adaseb

+1.2 = talks_cheep

+1.5 = mocacinno
+1.6 = Rizia2345 -- note: I gave you this as +1.5 was picked let me know if it is good

+2.5 = leowonderful
+2.6 = edonkey

+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.3 = Fruitsbasket  >>>> corrected
+3.4 = alh
+3.5 = ingiltere
+3.6 = RichBC  >>>>>> How is or was Vegas?
+3.7 = pusttiu
+3.8 = frank0929
+3.9 = NeuroticFish
+4.0 = Ankara
+4.1 = HerbPean
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.3 = Notlist3d
+4.4 = Amph
+4.5 = FUBAR-BDHR > corrected name
+4.6 = Psi

+4.8 = blindminer


+5.2 = notaek
+5.3  = indiemax
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = vapourminer
+5.6 = zebedee

+6.2= fr4nkthetan

+6.5 = VRobb  


+7.7% Mikestang
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1


the people in bold are the close ones



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   175,723,990,304 (+5.32%)
Adjust time:   After 239 Blocks, About 1.5 days
Hashrate(?):   1,336,634,607 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.9 minutes
6 blocks: 55.9 minutes
Updated:   

The peak hash for this period is much higher than it has been the previous 3 times it came and went.  For a while there my 7% guess was on target, still might be if more of those machines turn on again in the next couple days.

I hope we can keep playing after the halving, should be easy to crowd fund it.  The problem would be finding one person willing to hold funds and pay out.

It´s quite stubborn. With one and a half day to go; block generation time is 9.4 minutes. It´s going to be solidly up.

Best hope is that 90-150 ph "mystery" farm is powered off for the next day and 1/2

That could drop us to 3.9-4.5


@ Mikestang I do not mind running the thread / contest. But unless something turns up for me funding it will be to hard to do.

We can worry about it in July cause three months   in BTC time is three years in real world time ;D

Looks to me like we'll end below 5%, though not by a lot. Probably still to high for my guess....   >:(

Bitcoin Difficulty:    166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:    174,952,145,724 (+4.85%)
Adjust time:    After 187 Blocks, About 1.2 days
Hashrate(?):    1,308,789,162 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 28.1 minutes
6 blocks: 56.1 minutes
   
Updated:    0:25 (8.6 minutes ago)

BTC price still nothing exciting: $420

Seems like the price has been stuck in a "trading range" for well over a month now.Should be less than 3 months until we bit block # 420,000 (i.e. the "halving").

And someone has fired up a lot of gear

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   177,401,771,364 (+6.32%)
Adjust time:   After 129 Blocks, About 19.9 hours
Hashrate(?):   1,309,140,211 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.3 minutes
3 blocks: 27.8 minutes
6 blocks: 55.6 minutes
Updated:   8:55 (6.0 minutes ago)



we could go over 7% at this rate

Not where I wanted to be with this change i was  hoping for 5 or less (perferably less).  I have no proof but I really think this is tied into S7's with new 1 fan version.  One would think to redesign they had plans to make a good amount of them.

Price is around 424.  So above 420 hopefully that stays.

I bet bitfury  ::)

Maybe so.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    166,851,513,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:    178,553,618,419 (+7.01%)
Adjust time:    After 25 Blocks, About 3.8 hours
Hashrate(?):    1,283,547,331 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.4 minutes
6 blocks: 54.9 minutes
   
Updated:    0:20 (6.0 minutes ago)

BTC Price: ~ $420

Looks like 6% is LIKELY at this late stage. 7% is quite POSSIBLE. That's a lot of hash rate in the last 10 days!!!

Yeah that was sarcastic  ;D

Bitcoin Difficulty:   178,678,307,672
Estimated Next Difficulty:   189,499,207,312 (+6.06%)
Adjust time:   After 2016 Blocks, About 13.7 days
Hashrate(?):   1,301,638,738 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.2 minutes
6 blocks: 58.5 minutes
Updated:   11:30 (1.7 minutes ago)

Edit: this means +7.088%

So just over +7% and we have a Rollover.

Rich

Locked and a rollover new thread is here



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1436869.msg14536905#msg14536905


Really now was it? ;D ;D ;D


And we have a rollover


Difficulty History

Date                    Difficulty                 Change   Hash Rate

Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s

Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
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New thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1436869.msg14536905#msg14536905