Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Seth Otterstad on February 10, 2013, 12:07:24 AM



Title: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Seth Otterstad on February 10, 2013, 12:07:24 AM
I want to read some negative outlook on bitcoin.  The only thing I've seen for this was the recent article by Mencius Moldbug titled "How Bitcoin Dies".  Does this forum have bears, or are there some epic bear posts somewhere I can read?  It makes sense that the bears would not be motivated to stick around posting on a forum about an idea they think will fail, especially with the difficulty in short selling.  But they must have SOME good posts.

http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/how-bitcoin-dies.html


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: cypherdoc on February 10, 2013, 12:18:21 AM
yes

lucif
proudhon
adam
ElectricMucus
sublime

i'm probably missing a few.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: sunnankar on February 10, 2013, 12:24:28 AM
Unfortunately, there are not really any credit worthy bears that are willing to put their money where their mouth is.

Being short Bitcoin is a very very financially dangerous proposition. I would love to help skin some bears.

For example, I would love to help broker a 100,000+ BTC short contract with one that has sufficient collateral (perhaps a piece of real estate with about $2-6m of equity or a guaranteed letter of credit?) to post.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: cbeast on February 10, 2013, 12:26:18 AM
We keep them well fed. Please keep your hands clear of their cages. If you play a nice upbeat tune, they may dance for you, but normally they just growl a lot.  :D


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: ajk on February 10, 2013, 12:36:45 AM
how can there be bears in this market? look at the past year for bitcoin

bears are only bears for several reasons,
1) they follow bitcoin and have no money so hate the fact that others are gaining from it,
2) bad at trading and always make losing decisions while holding their position would have yielded more profit,
3) want to buy in at a lower price

not to discredit lucif i dont follow his line graphing i just think the whole idea of it is bogus my image is just someone throwing darts around the current price and then connecting the dots after the fact and then relaying that information on, same premise of line graphing, Fortune telling and we all know how real Ms.Cleo was at the low low price of 1 dollar per minute

also agree with the post above for credible bears there are none cause how can you have lost within the bitcoin market if you bought 1 year ago and buried your laptop in the workroom and then come back today to find out its 10X its value?


in relation to the article,

DOJ did a very good job at stopping torrenting and peer to peer file sharing im sure bitcoin will be as easy to put out, Ban BTC in the USA? its going to take a friggen century to get something like that passed as a serious law considering it takes simple ones decades,

Price to 0? Sure thats definitely possible as well.. considering some of the most profitable businesses in BTC are only raking in serious money and are not just making their livelihood off bitcoin, as long as people rely on BTC as part of their income the price will be above 0.00


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Melbustus on February 10, 2013, 12:41:43 AM
I think Cypher's list probably comprises close to all of them (at least the ones who are still around and post with any frequency).

Generally, I think people are not likely to retain significant interest in bitcoin if they think it's going to fail. And they if they don't think failure is inevitable, it's hard to be long-term bearish. That said, I think lots of us long-term bulls still think, at times, that the price has gone too far too fast, but that's really just a mostly-irrelevant short-term consideration.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: nobbynobbynoob on February 10, 2013, 12:47:25 AM
I think Cypher's list probably comprises close to all of them (at least the ones who are still around and post with any frequency).

Generally, I think people are not likely to retain significant interest in bitcoin if they think it's going to fail. And they if they don't think failure is inevitable, it's hard to be long-term bearish. That said, I think lots of us long-term bulls still think, at times, that the price has gone too far too fast, but that's really just a mostly-irrelevant short-term consideration.

(emphasis mine)

This.

Long-term, BTC almost has to be worth either a heckuvalot or diddly squat. Not much room in between, IMHO.

I'll happily be short-term bearish, however. Add evolve to the list of known Bitcointalk bears.

bitcointip Melbustus +BTC0,0025


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: keewee on February 10, 2013, 12:51:31 AM
how can there be bears in this market? look at the past year for bitcoin

bears are only bears for several reasons,
1) they follow bitcoin and have no money so hate the fact that others are gaining from it,
2) bad at trading and always make losing decisions while holding their position would have yielded more profit,
3) want to buy in at a lower price

not to discredit lucif i dont follow his line graphing i just think the whole idea of it is bogus my image is just someone throwing darts around the current price and then connecting the dots after the fact and then relaying that information on, same premise of line graphing, Fortune telling and we all know how real Ms.Cleo was at the low low price of 1 dollar per minute

also agree with the post above for credible bears there are none cause how can you have lost within the bitcoin market if you bought 1 year ago and buried your laptop in the workroom and then come back today to find out its 10X its value?


in relation to the article,

DOJ did a very good job at stopping torrenting and peer to peer file sharing im sure bitcoin will be as easy to put out, Ban BTC in the USA? its going to take a friggen century to get something like that passed as a serious law considering it takes simple ones decades,

Price to 0? Sure thats definitely possible as well.. considering some of the most profitable businesses in BTC are only raking in serious money and are not just making their livelihood off bitcoin, as long as people rely on BTC as part of their income the price will be above 0.00

This article seems to contradict the statement of yours that I've bolded: http://torrentfreak.com/bittorrent-traffic-increases-40-in-half-a-year-121107/

I doubt that tactic would be successful

edit: Unless I misunderstood and you were being sarcastic  ???


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: cbeast on February 10, 2013, 12:57:01 AM
I'm not even sure the term "bear" can even apply to Bitcoin. This is an emerging technology. The trading factor is really incidental. I would love to see the price of Bitcoin drop again like it did a year ago so I could acquire more, but I won't hold my breath. We won't even see a real market for Bitcoin until it starts reaching its potential utility which is still under development. The conservatives that advise about over-exuberance are certainly welcome to the discussion.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: ajk on February 10, 2013, 12:58:41 AM
Dude lol.. I was being sarcastic,

Torrenting is still strongly present and even when someone is persecuted for it, it does nothing to the masses,

next time ill italicize my sarcasm for clarification

Edit:

Lol on the money, Definite sarcasm, both points i was saying are invalid since the idea of bitcoin in the sense of peer to peer sharing already exists through torrents and it is impossible to stop, it would only make sense for bitcoin to be as equally as hard to put an end to, I also said it would take centuries to get a law passed banning bitcoins considering it takes forever to get simple laws passed in our current form / state of govt,

bitcoin will also never be 0.00 as long as businesses operating using bitcoin as a currency are still operational only til everyone involved says bitcoin is worthless will it then be worthless,


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: cypherdoc on February 10, 2013, 12:59:14 AM
how can there be bears in this market? look at the past year for bitcoin

bears are only bears for several reasons,
1) they follow bitcoin and have no money so hate the fact that others are gaining from it,
2) bad at trading and always make losing decisions while holding their position would have yielded more profit,
3) want to buy in at a lower price

not to discredit lucif i dont follow his line graphing i just think the whole idea of it is bogus my image is just someone throwing darts around the current price and then connecting the dots after the fact and then relaying that information on, same premise of line graphing, Fortune telling and we all know how real Ms.Cleo was at the low low price of 1 dollar per minute

also agree with the post above for credible bears there are none cause how can you have lost within the bitcoin market if you bought 1 year ago and buried your laptop in the workroom and then come back today to find out its 10X its value?


in relation to the article,

DOJ did a very good job at stopping torrenting and peer to peer file sharing im sure bitcoin will be as easy to put out, Ban BTC in the USA? its going to take a friggen century to get something like that passed as a serious law considering it takes simple ones decades,

Price to 0? Sure thats definitely possible as well.. considering some of the most profitable businesses in BTC are only raking in serious money and are not just making their livelihood off bitcoin, as long as people rely on BTC as part of their income the price will be above 0.00

This article seems to contradict the statement of yours that I've bolded: http://torrentfreak.com/bittorrent-traffic-increases-40-in-half-a-year-121107/

I doubt that tactic would be successful

edit: Unless I misunderstood and you were being sarcastic  ???

have you ever heard of sarcasm?


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: keewee on February 10, 2013, 01:00:09 AM
Dude lol.. I was being sarcastic,

Torrenting is still strongly present and even when someone is persecuted for it, it does nothing to the masses,

next time ill italicize my sarcasm for clarification

Yeah yeah I got it after I pressed post  :D


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: yogi on February 10, 2013, 01:06:03 AM
Bears are becoming rare because they are being hunted to extinction, but if I see any I will let you know.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on February 10, 2013, 01:21:27 AM
If you want a dosis of bitcoin hate, you could go to the SA forum:

http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3413928&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1
(this is an old thread though, this one is newer: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3517639&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1 )

Bunch of idiots making fun of "stupid nerds with fake money".  I wonder what kind of return they are making on their investments though  ;D .  




Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Bit_Happy on February 10, 2013, 01:26:42 AM
...The conservatives that advise about over-exuberance are certainly welcome to the discussion.

Buy the corrections; It's past due for one now.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: ArticMine on February 10, 2013, 01:30:05 AM
yes

lucif
proudhon
adam
ElectricMucus
sublime

i'm probably missing a few.

The biggest BTC bear has to be pirateat40; however he defaulted on his massive BTC short position six months ago.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: dust on February 10, 2013, 01:44:39 AM
yes

lucif
proudhon
adam
ElectricMucus
sublime

i'm probably missing a few.

The biggest BTC bear has to be pirateat40; however he defaulted on his massive BTC short position six months ago.
Running a ponzi doesn't make someone a bear.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: ArticMine on February 10, 2013, 01:55:12 AM
yes

lucif
proudhon
adam
ElectricMucus
sublime

i'm probably missing a few.

The biggest BTC bear has to be pirateat40; however he defaulted on his massive BTC short position six months ago.
Running a ponzi doesn't make someone a bear.

Paying 7% a week in BTC is perfectly sustainable if the BTC / USD rate drops at a compound rate greater than 7% a week as it did in the fall of 2011. All you do is sell your BTC for USD and hold USD. When the BTC / USD first stabilized and then started to rise this bear first tried to manipulate the market (hugh mistake) and when this did not work then it became indistinguishable from a ponzi.

It is the real rate of return not the nominal rate of return one has to look at in order to determine if something is a ponzi or not.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: notme on February 10, 2013, 02:04:45 AM
yes

lucif
proudhon
adam
ElectricMucus
sublime

i'm probably missing a few.

The biggest BTC bear has to be pirateat40; however he defaulted on his massive BTC short position six months ago.
Running a ponzi doesn't make someone a bear.
Defaulting doesn't make your business venture a ponzi.  There is no evidence beyond the conviction laid down by the peanut gallery.  It could very easily have been short trading gone bad.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: sunnankar on February 10, 2013, 02:18:04 AM
The biggest BTC bear has to be pirateat40; however he defaulted on his massive BTC short position six months ago.

I posted this in mid-July (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=93839.0). Within two months the bear pirateat40 (well, more likely his business and trading strategy) had been shot, skinned, gutted, grilled and eaten for lunch.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: cypherdoc on February 10, 2013, 02:20:50 AM
The biggest BTC bear has to be pirateat40; however he defaulted on his massive BTC short position six months ago.

I posted this in mid-July (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=93839.0). Within two months the bear pirateat40 (well, more likely his business and trading strategy) had been shot, skinned, gutted, grilled and eaten for lunch.

and look at my post, right under the OP.

overpay?  :D :D :D


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: fcmatt on February 10, 2013, 02:33:46 AM
I am a bear.. But i am also a miner so i am conflicted sometimes. I do not understand why the price is so high. Gambling? Hording? Seems like a lot of btc is one the sidelines right now not apparent in current asks that will show up in an amazing fashion some day soon.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: oakpacific on February 10, 2013, 02:40:42 AM
I think I am a bit more neutral than many people here, does that make me a bear? I still believe it's entirely possible that the market could crash right around the corner. But unlike some daydreaming bears here, I am not going to keep my hopes up high that I will have the chance to buy single digit coins simply because I didn't buy more at the time.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Melbustus on February 10, 2013, 06:13:34 AM
I think Cypher's list probably comprises close to all of them (at least the ones who are still around and post with any frequency).

Generally, I think people are not likely to retain significant interest in bitcoin if they think it's going to fail. And they if they don't think failure is inevitable, it's hard to be long-term bearish. That said, I think lots of us long-term bulls still think, at times, that the price has gone too far too fast, but that's really just a mostly-irrelevant short-term consideration.

(emphasis mine)

This.

Long-term, BTC almost has to be worth either a heckuvalot or diddly squat. Not much room in between, IMHO.

I'll happily be short-term bearish, however. Add evolve to the list of known Bitcointalk bears.

bitcointip Melbustus +BTC0,0025

Awesome - my first tip - thanks! Been on the board since June 2011 and I just got around to actually putting one of my addresses in my sig today!



Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: mp420 on February 10, 2013, 06:37:27 AM
I think I'm slowly becoming bearish, since I can't really see how the network can agree to the block size limit fork at this point. It really should have been done in 2010 when Bitcoin was not as important as it is now.

OTOH, I think the price may dip far below current level even if we don't hit the transaction limit.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: nrd525 on February 10, 2013, 07:44:33 AM
I wrote my first blog post about bitcoin and how it was a bubble when it was at $17.  I sold my short position at around $2.10.

I stopped being a bear once the price settled down (and wrote a bunch of posts saying Pirate was likely a ponzi), but have now regained faith.

One of my original arguments (that nobody else seems to use) is that Bitcoin is not unique and faces an infinite (or at least very large) number of competitors (anyone can create an alternative currency).  So I feel the whole limited supply / necessary deflation view that most people hold is wrong.

I don't think that will cause the current bubble to crash.  But I do think we're obviously in a bubble.  The price is going up too fast (compared to the growth of Bitcoin economy).  There is too much speculation and not enough real community/production.  And the fact that people are borrowing money at 150% APR (on Bitfinex) to go long is absurd.

On the other hand, I'm surprised at how resilient the Bitcoin economy has been in the wake of scams and hacks. So I think it will survive the ASIC meltdown.  That is to say most people who buy ASICs will lose money, as will most ASIC companies - due to the dangers of a low marginal cost of production.

Possible causes for the bubble bursting
-people realizing it is a bubble
-ASIC financial losses
-shutdown of Silk Road
-US/SEC crackdown on Bitcoin
-creation of better alternatives (possibly from people that have nothing to do with the current bitcoin economy, possibly sponsored by governments or large corporations who can build a network/community dwarfing bitcoin's overnight)


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: zvs on February 10, 2013, 09:06:25 AM
i would *sell short if there was some place that offered it where i didnt have a 50/50 chance of being swindled


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: TraderTimm on February 10, 2013, 09:29:06 AM
I'm expecting a retracement, myself. The only problem is - you don't short into an uptrend. When it breaks my trendlines, then it is time to bail.

Any good trader looks at both sides.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: DobZombie on February 10, 2013, 11:22:07 AM
Does this forum have bears?


http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3658/3338017556_c01808bed8_z.jpg
HERE'S A COUPLE!


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Vandroiy on February 10, 2013, 01:20:47 PM
Well. It might be getting another bear if this continues.

Relying on Mr. big money and/or a horde of newcomers to keep a gigantic rally running? I'm generally confident in Bitcoin, but it is getting excessive again. I'm drifting between balanced and bearish lately, haven't felt super bullish in a while.

The reasoning is quite simple: fundamentals aren't clear, and the surge in price is at least supported -- maybe even dominated -- by people who don't seem to know what they're doing. Check out reddit and the likes, posts like "I told my bro how much profit I made so he bought too!!!!" are not rare. So yaaa... pro traders at work.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Seth Otterstad on February 10, 2013, 04:12:47 PM
I do not understand why the price is so high. Gambling? Hording?

The price is going up too fast (compared to the growth of Bitcoin economy).  There is too much speculation and not enough real community/production.  And the fact that people are borrowing money at 150% APR (on Bitfinex) to go long is absurd.

Thanks for the analisys nrd525.  There are good reasons for a price increase this time. Here's whats different from a year ago:

Silk Road is doing at least 2mil/month.  Forum usage up hundreds of percent over last year.

A $10mil company will be releasing the BitcoinCard this year at the Vienna Bitcoin Conference. The Russian founders say 5 years of research have gone into this technology allowing a super-low-power credit card sized device to send texts, bitcoins, login info, and consumer data through an ad-hoc network instead of cell towers, at a card cost of only $10-$25

The block reward has halved, decreasing the supply of new coins to 3600 coins/day

Network transaction fees per day are up 1100% from 4 to 48

SatoshiDice has shown the potential of the bitcoin gambling market by earning $600k, including 17,266 bitcoins in December

BitInstant lets you buy bitcoins at walmart, 7-11, and CVS

Explosion in p2p exchanges for cash or bank transfers on sites like localbitcoins

There are many different bitcoin wallets for android and iPhone.

Many companies in the bitcoin community have gone public.

Coinlab and BitPay each got 500k in venture capital.  Coinbase got 100k.

Wordpress signed up with BitPay, the 20th largest website in the world.  BitPay then doubled their number of merchants in three months.

Somewhere around 3000 merchants accept bitcoin, up several hundred percent.

Bitcoin Foundation Launched in September 2012

Bitcoin can be traded on forex exchanges

New bitcoin based businesses are announced every day due to zero barrier to entry


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on February 10, 2013, 05:08:34 PM
I do not understand why the price is so high. Gambling? Hording?

The price is going up too fast (compared to the growth of Bitcoin economy).  There is too much speculation and not enough real community/production.  And the fact that people are borrowing money at 150% APR (on Bitfinex) to go long is absurd.

Thanks for the analisys nrd525.  There are good reasons for a price increase this time. Here's whats different from a year ago:

Silk Road is doing at least 2mil/month.  Forum usage up hundreds of percent over last year.

A $10mil company will be releasing the BitcoinCard this year at the Vienna Bitcoin Conference. The Russian founders say 5 years of research have gone into this technology allowing a super-low-power credit card sized device to send texts, bitcoins, login info, and consumer data through an ad-hoc network instead of cell towers, at a card cost of only $10-$25

The block reward has halved, decreasing the supply of new coins to 3600 coins/day

Network transaction fees per day are up 1100% from 4 to 48

SatoshiDice has shown the potential of the bitcoin gambling market by earning $600k, including 17,266 bitcoins in December

BitInstant lets you buy bitcoins at walmart, 7-11, and CVS

Explosion in p2p exchanges for cash or bank transfers on sites like localbitcoins

There are many different bitcoin wallets for android and iPhone.

Many companies in the bitcoin community have gone public.

Coinlab and BitPay each got 500k in venture capital.  Coinbase got 100k.

Wordpress signed up with BitPay, the 20th largest website in the world.  BitPay then doubled their number of merchants in three months.

Somewhere around 3000 merchants accept bitcoin, up several hundred percent.

Bitcoin Foundation Launched in September 2012

Bitcoin can be traded on forex exchanges

New bitcoin based businesses are announced every day due to zero barrier to entry

Do you keep a list or do these just pop up in your head?


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: adamstgBit on February 10, 2013, 05:21:44 PM
I do not understand why the price is so high. Gambling? Hording?

The price is going up too fast (compared to the growth of Bitcoin economy).  There is too much speculation and not enough real community/production.  And the fact that people are borrowing money at 150% APR (on Bitfinex) to go long is absurd.

Thanks for the analisys nrd525.  There are good reasons for a price increase this time. Here's whats different from a year ago:

Silk Road is doing at least 2mil/month.  Forum usage up hundreds of percent over last year.

A $10mil company will be releasing the BitcoinCard this year at the Vienna Bitcoin Conference. The Russian founders say 5 years of research have gone into this technology allowing a super-low-power credit card sized device to send texts, bitcoins, login info, and consumer data through an ad-hoc network instead of cell towers, at a card cost of only $10-$25

The block reward has halved, decreasing the supply of new coins to 3600 coins/day

Network transaction fees per day are up 1100% from 4 to 48

SatoshiDice has shown the potential of the bitcoin gambling market by earning $600k, including 17,266 bitcoins in December

BitInstant lets you buy bitcoins at walmart, 7-11, and CVS

Explosion in p2p exchanges for cash or bank transfers on sites like localbitcoins

There are many different bitcoin wallets for android and iPhone.

Many companies in the bitcoin community have gone public.

Coinlab and BitPay each got 500k in venture capital.  Coinbase got 100k.

Wordpress signed up with BitPay, the 20th largest website in the world.  BitPay then doubled their number of merchants in three months.

Somewhere around 3000 merchants accept bitcoin, up several hundred percent.

Bitcoin Foundation Launched in September 2012

Bitcoin can be traded on forex exchanges

New bitcoin based businesses are announced every day due to zero barrier to entry

Do you keep a list or do these just pop up in your head?
well done, I think this captures all the reasons for the price rising...

most Bitcoin Bears will cover a short with 5-10% profit and count themselves lucky... so in reality most bears are really long term bulls that believe price will go down for a sec   :P


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Seth Otterstad on February 10, 2013, 05:58:36 PM
Do you keep a list or do these just pop up in your head?

I really should have made a new thread.  I started that list a while ago and I just adjust the data and add/subtract from it every now and then.


EDIT:  actually, I will start a new thread.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Vladimir on February 10, 2013, 06:04:12 PM
Being a long term bear on bitcoin is about the same as being long term bull on fiat. Both could be classified as a form of insanity.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: BIGMERVE on February 10, 2013, 06:15:59 PM
http://cdn.pbh2.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/funniest-animal-gifs-waving-bear.gif


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: World on February 10, 2013, 07:18:57 PM
;D


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: nrd525 on February 10, 2013, 08:13:26 PM
Seth gave a great list of good developments for bitcoin.  Now obviously not all bitcoin projects will succeed (I'd bet against Coinbase and the bitcard), but that is true of any economy. So long as enough projects succeed, bitcoin may be in good hands.

In the past bear market, I thought that there was a good chance (say 1/10) that BTC could go down to zero.  I felt that the bear market would cause people to lose so much money that the community would be destroyed and it wouldn't recover.  However now it is pretty clear that won't happen.

I'm still skeptical because with a market cap of $250 million, if we have a money velocity of 4 - then we should we be doing $1 billion (or 43 million BTC) in trade each year. I don't see that happening yet.  Instead we have a lot of money sitting around and speculation that doesn't do anyone good.

I'm not sure what monetary velocity makes sense. If BTC was mature, my guess is the velocity would be 4-10 (as it is easy to transfer).  However in an immature and rapid growth economy you just need to have an expectation that the velocity will reach 4+ in the near future.

...

Another possible cause for a BTC price decline is that interest rates in developed economies could return to historical levels thus encouraging investors to move their money from BTC into bonds that provide a low-risk and positive rate of return.  Currently if you have your money in a US bank or ten year treasury you get paid less than the inflation rate (and lose even more money after taxes). 


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: cypherdoc on February 10, 2013, 08:40:50 PM
Seth gave a great list of good developments for bitcoin.  Now obviously not all bitcoin projects will succeed (I'd bet against Coinbase and the bitcard), but that is true of any economy. So long as enough projects succeed, bitcoin may be in good hands.

In the past bear market, I thought that there was a good chance (say 1/10) that BTC could go down to zero.  I felt that the bear market would cause people to lose so much money that the community would be destroyed and it wouldn't recover.  However now it is pretty clear that won't happen.

I'm still skeptical because with a market cap of $250 million, if we have a money velocity of 4 - then we should we be doing $1 billion (or 43 million BTC) in trade each year. I don't see that happening yet.  Instead we have a lot of money sitting around and speculation that doesn't do anyone good.

i don't agree.  at this stage of the game, its important to have a smoothly rising price from speculation to encourage more merchants to enter the fray.  i don't understand why alot of ppl expect/expected Bitcoin to have all elements of a successful new currency in place from day one.  its an evolutionary process of which all the components will come together with time.
Quote

I'm not sure what monetary velocity makes sense. If BTC was mature, my guess is the velocity would be 4-10 (as it is easy to transfer).  However in an immature and rapid growth economy you just need to have an expectation that the velocity will reach 4+ in the near future.
...

Another possible cause for a BTC price decline is that interest rates in developed economies could return to historical levels thus encouraging investors to move their money from BTC into bonds that provide a low-risk and positive rate of return.  Currently if you have your money in a US bank or ten year treasury you get paid less than the inflation rate (and lose even more money after taxes). 

it seems to me you're out of step with one component of that process.  for interest rates to rise, bonds have to sell off, liberating a huge sum of fiat money.  where might that go?  a good chunk of that could go to Bitcoin to fuel further price rises.  of course, at some point, as the Bitcoin prices and interest rates top out together, then you might get the shift back into bonds from Bitcoin.  but that could be a long time from now and at much higher Bitcoin prices.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: byronbb on February 10, 2013, 09:18:48 PM

Possible causes for the bubble bursting
-ASIC financial losses

https://twitter.com/jgarzik/status/300138033590718464

9 days to recoupe outlay.


Quote
-shutdown of Silk Road

TOR has been surviving for longer than SR, and not going anywhere. So if SR itself gets busted, someone replaces it. I fully expect cartels to wake up and amazon.com the SR eventually.

Quote
-US/SEC crackdown on Bitcoin

Perhaps. The US has waaayy bigger problems right now than bitcoin. The bitcoin network itself is a p2p network that moves crypto-hashes. It breaks no laws in itself, unlike perhaps that possible with bittorrent, which accounts for 30%-40% of Internet traffic.

Quote
-creation of better alternatives (possibly from people that have nothing to do with the current bitcoin economy, possibly sponsored by governments or large corporations who can build a network/community dwarfing bitcoin's overnight)

And maybe China lands on the moon by 2050.....


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: notme on February 10, 2013, 09:27:26 PM
TOR has been surviving for longer than SR, and not going anywhere. So if SR itself gets busted, someone replaces it. I fully expect cartels to wake up and amazon.com the SR eventually.

I agree SR would be quickly replaced, but I doubt the cartels would be so direct.  Most buyers don't like the idea of supporting these violent organizations, so they need a couple layers of obfuscation so they can feel like they are buying from some guy who grows in his basement, even if that's not true.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Herodes on February 10, 2013, 09:39:01 PM
(this is an old thread though, this one is newer: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3517639&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1 )

What is this 'something awful'-forum?  Firstly their green font on a black background gave me a headache, secondly, at least on that first page, there wasn't a single coherent post that smelled remotely of any kind of intelligence. I felt a bit like walking among thugs without a brain, going there. How on earth have they managed to gather so many fools on a single forum ? And why on earth does anyone indulge in any mindless drivel like this ?

Just go there and see for yourself. Imagine a foreign alien peaking into the internet, and the SA-forum is the first thing they see. He reports to his superiors: "Not sure, but it seems like they've developed a very advanced form of cryptographic communication that manifests itself as drivel. This is really advanced, let's move on to the next planet, and deal with these geniuses later on!"



Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: byronbb on February 10, 2013, 09:42:15 PM
TOR has been surviving for longer than SR, and not going anywhere. So if SR itself gets busted, someone replaces it. I fully expect cartels to wake up and amazon.com the SR eventually.

I agree SR would be quickly replaced, but I doubt the cartels would be so direct.  Most buyers don't like the idea of supporting these violent organizations, so they need a couple layers of obfuscation so they can feel like they are buying from some guy who grows in his basement, even if that's not true.

Heheh well said.  


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Spaceman_Spiff on February 10, 2013, 10:00:56 PM
(this is an old thread though, this one is newer: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3517639&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1 )

What is this 'something awful'-forum?  Firstly their green font on a black background gave me a headache, secondly, at least on that first page, there wasn't a single coherent post that smelled remotely of any kind of intelligence. I felt a bit like walking among thugs without a brain, going there. How on earth have they managed to gather so many fools on a single forum ? And why on earth does anyone indulge in any mindless drivel like this ?

Just go there and see for yourself. Imagine a foreign alien peaking into the internet, and the SA-forum is the first thing they see. He reports to his superiors: "Not sure, but it seems like they've developed a very advanced form of cryptographic communication that manifests itself as drivel. This is really advanced, let's move on to the next planet, and deal with these geniuses later on!"



I know right? Read a few posts too many and your brain will start rotting like something awful...


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: adamstgBit on February 11, 2013, 12:47:20 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjlaE1DhiKU

your welcome


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: adamstgBit on February 11, 2013, 01:01:37 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjlaE1DhiKU

your welcome

wait a minute... he was a stupid bear, and now hes turning bull finaly...

oh ic , nope no one is bearish atm ;D


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Roger_Murdock on February 11, 2013, 01:08:13 AM
I'm extremely bearish on the dollar. Does that count?


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: nrd525 on February 11, 2013, 03:24:19 AM
Quote
it seems to me you're out of step with one component of that process.  for interest rates to rise, bonds have to sell off, liberating a huge sum of fiat money.  where might that go?  a good chunk of that could go to Bitcoin to fuel further price rises.  of course, at some point, as the Bitcoin prices and interest rates top out together, then you might get the shift back into bonds from Bitcoin.  but that could be a long time from now and at much higher Bitcoin prices.

Interest rates will rise to normal levels when the Federal Reserve stops printing money.  There won't be new money that is freed up in this process.  If the Federal Reserve were to shrink its balance sheet (as it has promised to do eventually), it will actually take away money from the rest of the economy.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: nrd525 on February 11, 2013, 03:35:07 AM
A small number of lucky ASIC early purchasers can make a killing, while the majority of orders go unfulfilled.

These early ASIC purchasers are at risk of buoyant optimism causing them to invest all of their earnings in more ASIC units and where they'll lose money.

The ASIC argument is all about what happens when you have high capital costs, a low marginal cost of production, and an overall market (production of BTC) that is constant.  Namely ASIC prices will fall 90% while the hash rate goes through the roof.  Perhaps you could argue that growth in BTC value makes the market not constant?  However I still don't think it will keep up with the marginal cost problem.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: evolve on February 11, 2013, 08:34:18 PM
yes

lucif
proudhon
adam
ElectricMucus
sublime

i'm probably missing a few.

undercover SA posters
nagle
me (in the current market, anyways)


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: TraderTimm on February 11, 2013, 08:41:03 PM
Quote
it seems to me you're out of step with one component of that process.  for interest rates to rise, bonds have to sell off, liberating a huge sum of fiat money.  where might that go?  a good chunk of that could go to Bitcoin to fuel further price rises.  of course, at some point, as the Bitcoin prices and interest rates top out together, then you might get the shift back into bonds from Bitcoin.  but that could be a long time from now and at much higher Bitcoin prices.

Interest rates will rise to normal levels when the Federal Reserve stops printing money.  There won't be new money that is freed up in this process.  If the Federal Reserve were to shrink its balance sheet (as it has promised to do eventually), it will actually take away money from the rest of the economy.

And likely plunge the entire equity market into chaos. If it takes $84 Billion a month just to eke out a small percentage in the Dow/S&P500, what do you think will happen when that evaporates? And I won't even go into what rising interest rates will do to servicing the massive payments on the national debt.

It would be a messy implosion, that's what.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: RodeoX on February 11, 2013, 08:44:24 PM
There used to be a lot of bears here. Since the rise in prices they seem to have gone extinct.  ???


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: sublime5447 on February 11, 2013, 09:09:25 PM
yes

lucif
proudhon
adam
ElectricMucus
sublime

i'm probably missing a few.



HAHAHA I love it. I was quoted as being a bear that is great.(sublime5447) Yes I am very bearish on BTC it is clearly in a bubble IMO. There is no real market for BTC and lots of guys with huge stashes. More are being mined everyday so ya bitcoin is going to drop like a ton of bricks. These guys think they have the have a cash cow that cant be milked dry.
Major problems with BTC are--

Price stability---   Merchants have to constantly change their prices. Then you have the risk of down side loss. If you accept payment in BTC and the price drops rapidly you can lose a lot of money. That is not a place that merchants want to be.

Attainability---- There is none. I have been buying and selling BTC for 6 months and I still can't get them. I have dwolla, and mt gox and okay pay and learned more that i care to know about all that shit.

Trustworthiness---- I know lots of people will have shit to say about this, but the experience of me and my customers tells a much different story. This community is full of scammers and identity thieves

Account Risk---- If you deal in BTC you run the risk of frozen account and theft.

Legal Risk---- For tax evasion if you dont pay taxes on your BTC sales. And for useing a currency other than dollars. I know it is a grey area and not that big of a deal. You could also get in legal trouble for accepting money pak if it has been stolen.

There are others, but i just dont understand how people could think btc will go to 200 anytime soon or think that btc is a retirement fund. It all looks like a bunch of beanie baby owners to me, gold bugs,speculators, and Gordon Gekko wannabees.     


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: TraderTimm on February 11, 2013, 09:25:31 PM
HAHAHA I love it. I was quoted as being a bear that is great.(sublime5447) Yes I am very bearish on BTC it is clearly in a bubble IMO. There is no real market for BTC and lots of guys with huge stashes. More are being mined everyday so ya bitcoin is going to drop like a ton of bricks. These guys think they have the have a cash cow that cant be milked dry.
Major problems with BTC are--

More are being mined? That's a rookie mistake to make. Only 3,600 are being mined per day, and this is independent of what technology is mining them. That number will go DOWN in four years, too.

Price stability---   Merchants have to constantly change their prices. Then you have the risk of down side loss. If you accept payment in BTC and the price drops rapidly you can lose a lot of money. That is not a place that merchants want to be.

You're describing the same dynamics that occur in global markets. If I make a product in the United States and sell it in Japan, I have to consider currency conversion risks. Major companies do this every day, and seems they're in the "place they want to be." Bitcoin is no different.

Attainability---- There is none. I have been buying and selling BTC for 6 months and I still can't get them. I have dwolla, and mt gox and okay pay and learned more that i care to know about all that shit.

Wait, first you say "more are being mined every day" and now there aren't enough to go around? Make up your mind. And even if you do, you'd be wrong. I've never had a problem getting mine, but I guess I put more thought into my financial plans.

Trustworthiness---- I know lots of people will have shit to say about this, but the experience of me and my customers tells a much different story. This community is full of scammers and identity thieves

Wait a second, you mean people LIE to each other? What? They steal? OMG!? Society will grind to a halt! ... Or... mechanisms exist to trust other people conditionally. Bitcoin doesn't have any enforcement of contract, so you have to judge your risk accordingly, not leap in blindly thinking there's a safety net.

Account Risk---- If you deal in BTC you run the risk of frozen account and theft.

Ah, you've correctly discovered the present financial system is run by tyrants who can shut you down at will. That is why bitcoin will evolve beyond needing edge-exchanges. Bitcoin exists to route around these idiots. We really can't help you there, since the laws that have been made on the subject are paid for by rather large groups with piles of paper money in their vaults.

Legal Risk---- For tax evasion if you dont pay money-grabbing on your BTC sales. And for useing a currency other than dollars. I know it is a grey area and not that big of a deal. You could also get in legal trouble for accepting money pak if it has been stolen.

There are others, but i just dont understand how people could think btc will go to 200 anytime soon or think that btc is a retirement fund. It all looks like a bunch of beanie baby owners to me, gold bugs,speculators, and Gordon Gekko wannabees.     

Yes, breaking the law means you're in trouble. What a prescient and insightful comment. As for your "i just dont understand" comments, bitcoin has proven a lot of people wrong in that area - people who thought it was over in 2011, those who couldn't get the fact it could go higher than 5, or 10, or 20.... You get the idea.

I think you need to do more research about the whole subject. That includes business planning.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: sublime5447 on February 11, 2013, 09:29:12 PM
This is the kind of response i would expect. Bitcoin can do no wrong, you guys need to stop jeking off to bitcoin logos. :)


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: TraderTimm on February 11, 2013, 09:31:25 PM
This is the kind of response i would expect. Bitcoin can do no wrong, you guys need to stop jeking off to bitcoin logos. :)

This is the exact response I'd expect from someone who is blindly stuffing money into a sub-1% savings/checking account.

Enjoy your trip down devaluation/debasement lane, won't you? That is, if you even understand what those words mean.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Melbustus on February 11, 2013, 09:37:49 PM
Looks like you got some other point-by-point responses while I was typing this, but here're mine:


HAHAHA I love it. I was quoted as being a bear that is great.(sublime5447) Yes I am very bearish on BTC it is clearly in a bubble IMO. There is no real market for BTC and lots of guys with huge stashes. More are being mined everyday so ya bitcoin is going to drop like a ton of bricks. These guys think they have the have a cash cow that cant be milked dry.

I'm long-term quite bullish on bitcoin, but I do think a 50% correction/crash is fully possible given the rapidity of the price rise. Might happen tomorrow. Might happen after a crazy run to $50. I don't know. So being bearish short-term is a valid position, in my opinion.

But you need to realize that the success-case for bitcoin isn't solely defined by the day-to-day consumer transaction market that it can develop. See my post here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=142071.msg1513666#msg1513666



Major problems with BTC are--

Price stability---   Merchants have to constantly change their prices. Then you have the risk of down side loss. If you accept payment in BTC and the price drops rapidly you can lose a lot of money. That is not a place that merchants want to be.

Gets better long-term. Use BitPay now.



Attainability---- There is none. I have been buying and selling BTC for 6 months and I still can't get them. I have dwolla, and mt gox and okay pay and learned more that i care to know about all that shit.


Agreed that this is a pain.



Trustworthiness---- I know lots of people will have shit to say about this, but the experience of me and my customers tells a much different story. This community is full of scammers and identity thieves


Sure, bitcoin has reputational issues, but it's false to say that "bitcoin" has trustworthiness issues. 3rd party services surrounding bitcoin have had such issues, though the situation is *much* improved from even a year ago, with stronger, more professional companies now dominating the economy.



Account Risk---- If you deal in BTC you run the risk of frozen account and theft.


What are you talking about here? Using an online wallet? Keeping lots of funds in Gox?




Legal Risk---- For tax evasion if you dont pay taxes on your BTC sales. And for useing a currency other than dollars. I know it is a grey area and not that big of a deal. You could also get in legal trouble for accepting money pak if it has been stolen.


Not paying taxes has nothing to do with the particular currency or form of value received. 



There are others, but i just dont understand how people could think btc will go to 200 anytime soon or think that btc is a retirement fund. It all looks like a bunch of beanie baby owners to me, gold bugs,speculators, and Gordon Gekko wannabees.     

Do you think gold should have any value above that driven by its industrial demand?


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: sublime5447 on February 11, 2013, 09:41:20 PM
This is the kind of response i would expect. Bitcoin can do no wrong, you guys need to stop jeking off to bitcoin logos. :)

This is the exact response I'd expect from someone who is blindly stuffing money into a sub-1% savings/checking account.

Enjoy your trip down devaluation/debasement lane, won't you? That is, if you even understand what those words mean.

What a dick huh? I have a business with great returns thanks. I dont save money I save wealth.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: zoinky on February 11, 2013, 09:51:06 PM
Sublime judging by your posts you sound like one of those people that are upset they didn't get to stock up back when the price was in the single digits. 


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: evolve on February 11, 2013, 09:55:43 PM
Oh no, Someone posted a dissenting opinion on bitcointalk!!! Quick, everyone jump on the dogpile!!!!



Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: steamboat on February 11, 2013, 10:01:09 PM
Oh no! Someone posted a dissenting opinion on bitcointalk!!! Quick, everyone jump on the dogpile!!!!



I wouldn't call it dissenting. disinformed, disingenuous, and distant-from-the-truth seem better fits.

I almost posted a day or so ago in an attempt to help sublime and figure out where his misunderstandings were. Then I kept reading his posts. He gives me the feeling he's from a middle/upper middle class family with as much business knowledge as he could gleen from the papers of students much more studious than he.

Anyone that tells me they're too lazy to explain their own logic isn't worth my time.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: sublime5447 on February 11, 2013, 10:24:16 PM
Sublime judging by your posts you sound like one of those people that are upset they didn't get to stock up back when the price was in the single digits. 

I had plenty of chances to stock up, but that is not my game. I am interested in providing bitcoin to the public. I had a really hard time finding btc when I was new (still do have lots of problems) so I started a store to sell btc on ebay and then off facebook. I sell to people who have never used bitcoin before for Paypal. I sign up lots of people for nzbsrus. These customers come to me crying about how the crooks on otc and here and the internet in general stole from them and tell me how happy they are to get the coins from someone fast and honest. I want to make money buy giving people what they want not buy hoarding it away like some troll. Bitcoin is completely worthless without people adopting it. So hold to your precious 1's and 0's all the way back down.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: sublime5447 on February 11, 2013, 10:37:27 PM
Oh no! Someone posted a dissenting opinion on bitcointalk!!! Quick, everyone jump on the dogpile!!!!



I wouldn't call it dissenting. disinformed, disingenuous, and distant-from-the-truth seem better fits.

I almost posted a day or so ago in an attempt to help sublime and figure out where his misunderstandings were. Then I kept reading his posts. He gives me the feeling he's from a middle/upper middle class family with as much business knowledge as he could gleen from the papers of students much more studious than he.

Anyone that tells me they're too lazy to explain their own logic isn't worth my time.

I have owned my own business for 10 years or so my father has owned his business for 20 years or so, my uncle was a multi millionaire with his business before he died. I know a good amount about business, especially how to treat customers and clients. I am not form a upper middle class. I am from the lower middle class, but wtf does that matter. 


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Monster Tent on February 11, 2013, 10:59:31 PM
This is the kind of response i would expect. Bitcoin can do no wrong, you guys need to stop jeking off to bitcoin logos. :)

This is the exact response I'd expect from someone who is blindly stuffing money into a sub-1% savings/checking account.

Enjoy your trip down devaluation/debasement lane, won't you? That is, if you even understand what those words mean.

Burying your head in the sand and claiming there are no problems with bitcoin is idiotic. One of the major issues is whether it can possibly scale to a significant degree when one single site (satoshidice) is causing the block chain to bloat and no one wants to run a full node because of it.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: TraderTimm on February 11, 2013, 11:17:09 PM
This is the kind of response i would expect. Bitcoin can do no wrong, you guys need to stop jeking off to bitcoin logos. :)

This is the exact response I'd expect from someone who is blindly stuffing money into a sub-1% savings/checking account.

Enjoy your trip down devaluation/debasement lane, won't you? That is, if you even understand what those words mean.

Burying your head in the sand and claiming there are no problems with bitcoin is idiotic. One of the major issues is whether it can possibly scale to a significant degree when one single site (satoshidice) is causing the block chain to bloat and no one wants to run a full node because of it.

I'm aware of the potential risks, I've posted that I expect prices to retrace, possibly to a lower level than most expect. I'm on both sides of this trade - not "burying my head in the sand".

As for "sublime", he's a well known pot-stirrer in the OTC channels, so I'd trust his word about as much as I'd trust Bruce Wagner.

His juvenile language and attempts to insult other people are the icing on the cake. Hey sublime, why don't you go bang pots in the kitchen and let the grown ups worry about the future.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: sublime5447 on February 11, 2013, 11:25:56 PM
I cant find any grown up on otc just a bunch of kids. That site is shit.  :). I just dont like dicking around and there is a lot of that with BTC.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Herodes on February 12, 2013, 04:23:40 AM
I cant find any grown up on otc just a bunch of kids. That site is shit.  :). I just dont like dicking around and there is a lot of that with BTC.

That's not true. I'm an adult, and I'm there. I've also traded in person and sent money through traditional banking systems, without a hitch.

On IRC there's always a lot of idiots though. But if you check the otc pages, there are various ways of getting in touch with people, some you can send a memo to on irc, others you can e-mail and some again can be found on this forum. There's even a subforum here called currency exchange where you can find parties to trade with.


Yeah, and oh the bears..

http://wac.450f.edgecastcdn.net/80450F/k99.com/files/2012/09/Flickr-marja-kingma-bear-cubs-300x200.jpg


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: sublime5447 on February 12, 2013, 05:29:17 AM
Cool if you trade there maybe you can ask why rbecker gets to steal my name and leave neg feedback without trading with me?


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: notme on February 12, 2013, 06:50:43 PM
Cool if you trade there maybe you can ask why rbecker gets to steal my name and leave neg feedback without trading with me?

Probably because you're good at rubbing people the wrong way and he decided to let you know that you can't run around being needlessly hostile without consequences.

He can't auth as you and he can only steal your name if you don't register it.

A poor workman blames his tools, but sometimes he just needs to learn how to use them properly.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: wtfvanity on February 12, 2013, 06:56:58 PM
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fO_Jv6_Llog/TXodlXeihlI/AAAAAAAADAk/asJl9Y3vN9A/s1600/scary-bear.jpg


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Sitarow on February 12, 2013, 07:05:59 PM
Going on pure speculation one can argue that with the reward halving, BTC value should be priced in at $26

https://i.imgur.com/rSkUb.jpg


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: sublime5447 on February 12, 2013, 07:10:10 PM
Cool if you trade there maybe you can ask why rbecker gets to steal my name and leave neg feedback without trading with me?

Probably because you're good at rubbing people the wrong way and he decided to let you know that you can't run around being needlessly hostile without consequences.

He can't auth as you and he can only steal your name if you don't register it.

A poor workman blames his tools, but sometimes he just needs to learn how to use them properly.

It is kinda funny that you mention having the wrong tools. I was a auto tech/ engine specialist for 10 years, so I know all about tools and how worthless poor quality tools are. You are saying I am the lazy one, but what kind of forum allows you to steal someone elses name? What kind of community lets people do that? Bictoin otc is a joke and a cruel on if you are new to BTC. I shouldnt have to be a programmer or web developer to get btc. And how many of you really think that serious business people are going to hold up licences and signs with a shoe on their head? 

I do have a way of rubbing people the wrong way. I have been told that I am brutally honest or honest to a fault, but you always know what you are going to get with me. I dont mind telling people what they dont want to hear.
So i have not made to many friends there, a few though. Because I think that bitcoin-otc is the worst market place I have ever attempted to shop in. It is awful and a joke to me. 


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Peter Lambert on February 12, 2013, 07:23:50 PM
Going on pure speculation one can argue that with the reward halving, BTC value should be priced in at $26


That is silly, the number of bitcoins did not drop in half, just the number which are being produced. All the bitcoins that have been out there are still around.

I am not a bear exactly, I think the price will go up a little, but I think it will stabilize somewhere below 100 USD.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: wtfvanity on February 12, 2013, 07:46:13 PM
Going on pure speculation one can argue that with the reward halving, BTC value should be priced in at $26


That is silly, the number of bitcoins did not drop in half, just the number which are being produced. All the bitcoins that have been out there are still around.

I am not a bear exactly, I think the price will go up a little, but I think it will stabilize somewhere below 100 USD.


I'm not a bear exactly either and I think the price will stabilize somewhere below 90 USD.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: notme on February 12, 2013, 09:47:50 PM
Cool if you trade there maybe you can ask why rbecker gets to steal my name and leave neg feedback without trading with me?

Probably because you're good at rubbing people the wrong way and he decided to let you know that you can't run around being needlessly hostile without consequences.

He can't auth as you and he can only steal your name if you don't register it.

A poor workman blames his tools, but sometimes he just needs to learn how to use them properly.

It is kinda funny that you mention having the wrong tools. I was a auto tech/ engine specialist for 10 years, so I know all about tools and how worthless poor quality tools are. You are saying I am the lazy one, but what kind of forum allows you to steal someone elses name? What kind of community lets people do that? Bictoin otc is a joke and a cruel on if you are new to BTC. I shouldnt have to be a programmer or web developer to get btc. And how many of you really think that serious business people are going to hold up licences and signs with a shoe on their head? 

I do have a way of rubbing people the wrong way. I have been told that I am brutally honest or honest to a fault, but you always know what you are going to get with me. I dont mind telling people what they dont want to hear.
So i have not made to many friends there, a few though. Because I think that bitcoin-otc is the worst market place I have ever attempted to shop in. It is awful and a joke to me. 

IRC has always been that way.  It is not a forum, it is a chat protocol that has been used since the late 80s.  If you register your name nobody can take it without your password, but you obviously have not done that.  It was not intended to be the main market for bitcoin, it just happens to be convenient for those of us who use IRC every day for other reasons.

I respect that you can acknowledge your occasional brashness.  Actually, I'm coming to respect you more the more I read from you.  You're just a bit rough around the edges like most of us.  At least you don't spam my inbox like iamag ;).


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: sublime5447 on February 13, 2013, 12:10:29 AM
That guy sucks. He messaged me again this morning. like an itchy asshole he will not go away. :)

Thanks for the complement. I am okay if you get to know me.   


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: nrd525 on February 13, 2013, 02:08:30 AM
I'm currently loaning on bitfinex to bulls at 240-300% interest (APR) -- the average APR is more around 100%. By contrast bears can get BTC loaned at 10-15% APR.

The bitfinex lending market is solid evidence of an irrational bull market.

The fact that marginal trading on bitfinex is many times more expensive than Bitcoinica (where the maximum interest rate was 20%, right?) could tame this bull market, however it also shows how much more irrational the bulls are.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: xxjs on February 13, 2013, 03:36:21 AM
You are a bear if you belive bitcoin to correct 10 down from fifty in may.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: marhjan on February 13, 2013, 07:40:18 PM
I am rather bearish in the short to medium term


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: bitarrow on February 13, 2013, 10:38:46 PM
If all bears could unite at same time ?  hmmm


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: sublime5447 on February 14, 2013, 12:27:06 AM
Busting right now how far is it going to crash down to?


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Peter Lambert on February 14, 2013, 02:14:37 AM
Busting right now how far is it going to crash down to?

Aaaand ... it's back up again.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Qoheleth on February 14, 2013, 02:57:40 AM
Whatever happened to Proudon, anyway? I liked that guy.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: proudhon on February 14, 2013, 03:13:57 AM
Whatever happened to Proudon, anyway? I liked that guy.

You rang?


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: cypherdoc on February 14, 2013, 03:33:02 AM
Whatever happened to Proudon, anyway? I liked that guy.

You rang?

lol!  right on time. 

and STILL a bear.


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: TraderTimm on February 14, 2013, 05:55:45 AM
I guess nobody has seen a V-Reversal before.

Well, almost nobody :)


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: arepo on February 14, 2013, 05:58:15 AM
I guess nobody has seen a V-Reversal before.

Well, almost nobody :)

count me in (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=143942.0)


Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: Vladimir on February 14, 2013, 09:33:55 AM
Quote
Does this forum have bears?

I would say this forum has bulls, bears and pigs.

Pigs just have been slaughtered again.



Title: Re: Does this forum have bears?
Post by: wtfvanity on February 14, 2013, 03:24:44 PM
Quote
Does this forum have bears?

I would say this forum has bulls, bears and pigs.

Pigs just have been slaughtered again.



lol