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Title: The big picture Post by: niko on February 14, 2013, 09:05:03 AM Time to step back and take a disinterested look: how are we doing?
https://i.imgur.com/lhxRmyM.png Note - volume in USD, weekly averages, log scale to avoid distortion. Time span chosen to eliminate early days with negligible volume. We have surpassed the weekly maximum average of 2011! All time highs! The volume looks healthy, too. All in all, I find the picture appealing. What do you think? Title: Re: The big picture Post by: Uglux on February 14, 2013, 09:20:06 AM Title: Re: The big picture Post by: RyNinDaCleM on February 14, 2013, 12:58:30 PM How about this volume?
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=1046.8571428060532&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=Weekly&c=1&s=2011-04-01&e=2013-02-15&Prev=&Next=&t=M&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0& Big difference, eh? That's a lot of divergence! You can talk about higher USD volume when there is a higher price, but this just means lower BTC volume, which is the base asset. You wouldn't look at an APPL chart and compare the USD volume of 2000 and now because of course the volume would be much higher. You look at the number of shares moving. Title: Re: The big picture Post by: Rothgar on February 14, 2013, 01:04:31 PM How about this volume? *image redacted* Big difference, eh? That's a lot of divergence! You can talk about higher USD volume when there is a higher price, but this just means lower BTC volume, which is the base asset. You wouldn't look at an APPL chart and compare the USD volume of 2000 and now because of course the volume would be much higher. You look at the number of shares moving. In this case lower BTC volume may mean more BTC off the exchange. Maybe in people's wallet, maybe used for financing projects, maybe on another exchange. One should expect BTC volume to go down over time. Title: Re: The big picture Post by: Rothgar on February 14, 2013, 01:12:05 PM For example volume in China is growing.
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/btcnCNY#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv That's only one of the three exchanges that trade against the yuan. Title: Re: The big picture Post by: Technomage on February 14, 2013, 01:24:33 PM BTC being very scarce, and bitcoins still being used more as a speculative asset than a medium of exchange, I would think that the volumes in exchanges in terms of BTC volume perhaps should go down long term and that's a healthy sign. Not sure about this but just thinking out loud.
The volume in terms of fiat should definitely go up even if more and more bitcoins are used outside the exchanges. This is because more usage usually leads to a higher market price as well. Title: Re: The big picture Post by: niko on February 14, 2013, 03:20:04 PM How about this volume? http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=1046.8571428060532&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=Weekly&c=1&s=2011-04-01&e=2013-02-15&Prev=&Next=&t=M&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0& Big difference, eh? That's a lot of divergence! You can talk about higher USD volume when there is a higher price, but this just means lower BTC volume, which is the base asset. You wouldn't look at an APPL chart and compare the USD volume of 2000 and now because of course the volume would be much higher. You look at the number of shares moving. People today value bitcoins in terms of fiat. Increase in USD volume means exactly that the btc "economy" is growing (yes, this includes speculative and store-of-value uses), and I express this growth in "real" terms of USD. Yes, there is USD inflation, but it is still lower than the BTC inflation (I speak of inflation of the monetary base). We should not fixate on numbers without understanding what they represent - in this case, USD represents value of a good or a service, and this metric is much more stable than BTC metric. BTC trade volume is currently a useless number. Title: Re: The big picture Post by: Rothgar on February 14, 2013, 04:39:34 PM Yes, there is USD inflation, but it is still lower than the BTC inflation (I speak of inflation of the monetary base). Not true. USD inflation is $85B or 3% per month. The future is determined by the. FOMC. While BTC inflation is 1% per month and dropping. Yes, this is monetary inflation. Look up QE4. Title: Re: The big picture Post by: SgtSpike on February 14, 2013, 04:54:41 PM Yes, there is USD inflation, but it is still lower than the BTC inflation (I speak of inflation of the monetary base). Not true. USD inflation is $85B or 3% per month. The future is determined by the. FOMC. While BTC inflation is 1% per month and dropping. Yes, this is monetary inflation. Look up QE4. Title: Re: The big picture Post by: mr chong on February 14, 2013, 06:37:46 PM I know I have never bought bitcoins off an exchange, all my buys come from buying off of other people and I know I am not alone, more and more coins everyday are being traded between people and not showing up on the exchanges.
Title: Re: The big picture Post by: SgtSpike on February 14, 2013, 06:41:18 PM Big difference, eh? That's a lot of divergence! You can talk about higher USD volume when there is a higher price, but this just means lower BTC volume, which is the base asset. You wouldn't look at an APPL chart and compare the USD volume of 2000 and now because of course the volume would be much higher. You look at the number of shares moving. As someone has pointed out, there are other places moving large amounts of bitcoin which we can't see on Gox's volume, or anywhere for that matter. Also, more people using Bitcoin entirely within the Bitcoin economy won't show up on Gox's volume either. Finally, APPL. https://i.imgur.com/ABmDIIP.png Also, why is that chart so weird? The first 5 years is much larger than the other 5 year increments. |
