Bitcoin Forum

can we start another rampant speculation-about-price-stagnation thread please? what's going on?

It's just the usual decline after a large rise.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=976&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=&c=1&s=2011-03-13&e=2011-06-11&Prev=&Next=&v=1&cv=1&ps=0&l=1&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&SubmitButton=Draw&

LOL - good one! :D

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v450/2weiX/2m_normal.png
normal scaling, looks really overheated. if it drops below 25, next target is 20, then 10.
the most solid resistance is ~10. i haven't taken into account market depth.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v450/2weiX/2m_logar.png
logarithmic scaling. looks alot more stable. notice how the resistance ~20 is the same, then slightly below 10.


well anyways, this is "shot from the hip" as we say in germany. personally - if there's two or three more days with decent volume ABOVE 25, I'll start to not-sell / buy.

+1

piuk, YMMD!

well, I disagree on the BID/ASK:


http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v450/2weiX/bidask.jpg

Looks pretty good IMHO.

is it blue or pink that owns bitcoins and wants to sell? :p

pink buys (at lower prices)
blue sells (at higher prices)

obv

iirc theres ~13000BTC BID @ ~22

+1 for this thread

Yes, massive order @ 22. The cynic inside me thinks that the fact it isn't a dark pool means its' deliberately there to prop up the price.

That is not cinyc assumption, somebody talk to us clearly.

What's going on?!
You would be a fool if you didn't expect a possibility of price correction after it triples within 10 days...

So it was only the fools that were paying $32 per coin.

We saw such a reaction around 18 $. Somebody want stabilize market, and have enough funds to do it for some time. Well i am don`t see anything horrible in that. Some old BTC will change hands, and that is good for BTC community.  I was thinking that this process will start around 50 $, well, i was mistaken.

did you have to omit the part above 32? because it does not look that good with it :)

Look at the volume going through MTGox.  It's clearly an issue with funds being backed up which are trying to flow in to MTGox.  You've seen the threads all over these boards.  Once they get hooked in to Dwolla properly again, you'll see another day like the rush from 19 in to the mid 20s at a minimum.  So many people tried to get funds in before the rush to 30 that have just been waiting to get in now that they see how real the interest is in Bitcoins.

I don't think so. I'm pretty sure Bitcoin will eventually pass $100 and it wouldn't surprise me if it would go up to $1000. Simply because it's extremely undervalued at the moment (21 million cap - think about what that means when Bitcoin gains more traction ... it means: one Bitcoin needs to be worth quite a lot, certainly much more than $100).

Of course, it sucks when you bought at $30 instead of at $20 ... or $10 ... or $1. But it will suck even more if you miss it at $30, or $50, or $100. So unless you want to speculate on it going down quite a bit (which may or may not happen), I'd rather do my best to not miss the train ;-)

I'll just leave it here :)
https://i.imgur.com/hnfwy.png

I second that.  Sure it'd be nice to buy now, instead of $32, but you can't lose sleep second guessing the exact timing.

I go back to "fundamental" analysis.  Figure how many dollars need to be stored in Bitcoins to support an electronic market, and guess at the probability that Bitcoins will get there, and you can arrive at a current valuation.  I did that here (https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=11098.msg158139#msg158139) about nine days ago with some very conservative numbers.

A lot has changed since then, including (especially) more than 100,000 people having downloaded the client (http://sourceforge.net/project/stats/detail.php?group_id=244765&ugn=bitcoin&mode=60day&&type=prdownload), increasing the installed base by about 40%.

do you mean prop down the price? how does this work exactly?

If the buyer has no intention of actually going through with the order it creates the illusion that there is more demand than there actually is.

For example say i have some coins and i'm watching the price drift down a bit today, I can look at the order book and i know that if the worst comes to the worst there will be a buyer at @ 22. It makes the market more confident.

If the buyer really wanted to buy up a lot of cheap coins it doesn't make any sense for him not to trade in a dark pool (order hidden from the public). However if he also has coins to sell then he can try and keep the price high, with the fake buy, while he gets rid of them.

If you were looking to sell your coins, which one looks better?
https://i.imgur.com/kz7za.png


** This is all just speculation, it's probably a perfectly legitimate order.

well, just put a big-ass buy order in the market, low enough that it won't get hit, but big enough that it will "support" the market.
this works usually like so: people think that with that bigass order @22, the BTC will NEVAR EVAR go below that price since noone would be selling THAT MANY BTCs at ONCE, and start putting their buy orders at 22.1, then 22.2 etc etc to "catch the low point".

in case it DOES go to 22, they think they can quickly dump their BTCs @22 to the bigass buyer. so the risk is like 1% (they THINK).

so while the manipulator never needs to buy @22, he can easily sell at 25 or so.

Would be good to see a market for short selling developing. That would give greater price stability.

PS. Love the tidal wave pic. I LOL'd for real.

reminder, we are up like 40% since the weekend.

That's pretty damn good

Previous week we saw 62% growth vs USD.  This week, even with the "dip" today, we are still way ahead of 62% increase. 62% would be $22.35, so unless we drop another $5 it's still consistently high growth.

The price is flat because the flow of fund into mtgox has been stopped for upgrades.
I imagine a big up or down day when things resolve. 10 days my money has been in limbo.

jesus, we could be seeing some record breaking volume shortly, either up or down, probably up first though.

There is quite the logjam at $30 though, need some kind soul to drop 6 figures in real quick haha

Its also right between two salary and summer.

People trade/buy more once they get pay and during autumn.

Does anyone think this stagnation is due to resent SilkRoad news outbreak?

Exactly.  Tons of people seem unable to get their money into Mt Gox to trade.  Look at some other places where people are able to buy bitcoins easier, such as ebay, where they are selling for ~$40+ each.

Whether bitcoins are successful long term or not is debatable, but it seems clear that there is at least a large amount of pent-up demand at MtGox waiting to buy bitcoins.  Certainly this bodes well for the short term prospects of bitcoins.

109 just sold in the span of 10 seconds on virwox.. i was happy.. sold for equivlant of about 25$ USD and hopefully this weekend it will climb back up :3

I wonder how many of the old timers are finally starting to cash in their bitcoins.  Would it be possible to match the sales data to block explorer data, or does the fact that they are intra-wallet transactions stop you from doing it?

It would be pretty hard to do, particularly if you don't already know either of the endpoints.

You could get mtgox to send you a bitcoin, then track that transaction backwards to see where it came from, and follow the chains forward and backward at each point.  But the more links you have to follow, the less sure you are of who owns the address you are looking at.

A fool and his money are easily parted.

Everybody stop buying for a bit, I just want to know if that order @ 22 is real or not :)

I would guess that Mtgox only accept orders, which are properly covered by USD on the account.

$51/BTC  A record?

http://cgi.ebay.com/5-Bitcoin-BTC-Bitcoins-/320710734019?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item4aabd970c3

yes, but orders can be cancelled at the last minute.

https://i.imgur.com/tDQjf.png

As i thought, it disappeared from the order book as soon as it looks like it might get filled (or at least halved in size).

https://i.imgur.com/6AcWF.png

Well thats an issue with how mtgox work, could suck for rest of us who doesnt try and fuck around. sigh

2,935 BTC order @ 20 today. Place your bets, is it real or not?

Bitter :( Now that I just got used to BTC rising 20% per day. Still 20 is a nice price considering I found my first block today :)