Bitcoin Forum

About 73 days left (http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/) until Bitcoin halving and I have reasons to believe that:
- BTC price will be in the $600 - $700 range
- A lot of alt coins will be dumped and probably never recover

Many Bitcoin supporters claim that it can be used for pretty much anything, and that we don't need other cryptocurrencies, but I could not agree with that. I somehow believe that we are in trouble, because cryptoworld needs several currencies in order to survive as it is (of course, so called s*itcoins are not considered).

What is your opinion?

Why alt coins will be dumped when the halving happens?

Because a speculation will precede and follow the Bitcoin halving. Probably a lot of people will decide to participate in it, and they will most likely exchange their alts for Bitcoin.

As the price of BTC increases, people tend to keep smaller positions in alts, thus reducing the demand and increasing the supply. The rest is economics 101.

Totally agree if the price of bitcoin zooms to $600 then any altcoins that are not performing well in the market should be exchange to bitcoins so it's a battle of survival for altcoins this year..

I could also imagine that halving results in a dump of bitcoins because it simply doesn't pay off anymore for the miners...Will be interesting to watch.

I think that the average price of electricity in China (which many of you know control majority of the Bitcoin's hashrate) is about 0.08$/kWh. Let's assume that we are using 200 x Antminer S7 (https://bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=00020150827084021471OHYdwd9D06A0), which total hashrate is 1PH (deliberately raised the hashrate and the power consumption of the device), and power consumption is 1250W per device (0.25W/GH). That means our total power consumption is 250kWh (or 6000kWh/day), which is $480/day (based on the price in China) or $14,400/month. With such equipment, at the current difficulty, you will be able to mine about 2.81 BTC/day or 84,3 BTC/month, which (based on current price of Bitcoin) means $1265/day or $37,935/month. If we assume that the price and difficulty of Bitcoin stays the same after halving, then you will mine $632/day or $18,968/month worth of Bitcoins. The price of Bitcoin (as many people think) will most likely not stay the same after reward halving, but even if it stays, the chinese will be fine. :)

P.S. Keep in mind that the major mining farms in China made a ROI long time ago. They are not stupid. With that said (and using my calculations), they will be profiting until the price of Bitcoin reaches $350, which is not likely to happen...

I think it will be the other way around with the limited supply of Bitcoin because of the halving demands will rise this is what all the experts are predicting that is going to happen after the halving and yes it is going to be interesting

Price is only going up.

Why?

1- Halving speculation. Everybody in cryptoland is expecting a price increase. A self fullfilling prophecy.
2- Greater mass adoption/awareness (Steam, OpenBazaar)
3- Economic turmoil in the world will increase
4- Most average joes only know about Bitcoin

Sure we will see some price fluctuations on the way. Some mainstream FUD perhaps, accompanied by some scandals. Price discoveries go from undervalued to overvalued and somewhere in between.

I think it's true. if the price of halving will give effect to all the coins referred bitcoin and altcoin, altcoin price may be greater when halving happen and I guess in this may be very many new emerging altcoin

i agree, there will definitely going to be a big rise in bitcoin price and the least amount is 600-700 but many believe that it will go past the ATH


a lot of altcoins are being dumped every day and many of them never recover, i don't think this is going to change because of bitcoin price.
i think it will only affect a couple of them like eth to go down and like ltc to go up.


i don't say crypto-world needs several currencies but i certainly believe that there is no reason why other cryptocurrencies can not live side by side with bitcoin and also in case that any of them (the current alts or the future alts) become popular doesn't mean bitcoin will die or even go down in price.

You are assuming most of the Chinese miners are paying retail for their electricity.  I heavily suspect it's more like being in partnership with those in govt controlling the plant and splitting the profits.

Im expecting absolutely nothing to happen when the halving comes. If anything i could see a dump when people realise the bitcoin is not going to double in price. If we manage to stick at 450 or their abouts then i will be happy with that. Growth can come later.

When I said "a lot of altcoins", I meant the ones that matter and people have genuine interest in them.


Or a big part of the chinese mining farms are stealing electricity? :) I just wanted to make fair calculations, but of course I am 101% sure that in reality, a major part of these miners have lower costs on electricity.

I think halving could double the price from $400 to $800. The halving rally has already started for some time.

this man speak the truth

I think that you missed the most important factor, greed.
If Miners are making 38k/Month, why would they just accept 19k ? when they KNOW that they can make 38k...

For me, the most likely scenario is : miners will be unhappy about the halving, and will continue to farm normally(why would they sell hundreds of thousands of dollars in equipment ? and another question, who would buy it ?)  they will start accumulating and gonna sell btc just to cover expenses.
With less offer, the price will go up, wont say 100% because some of miners will fear to hold btc for long time and will start selling, but it will rise a lot...

I wouldn't call it greed. It will be plain stupid if they are selling all of their Bitcoins to make profit in fiat. I would call it "investment" (to hold and see how the market will react after halving).

Btw, imo, they started to accumulate long time ago. Recent rise of Bitcoin is not only, because some people decided to throw more money in it, but it may be also because the sell pressure is lower.

So the BTC halving will cause all problems inherent in the community and tech to disappear suddenly? Great.
BTC halving caused price rise will, after it has reached 600 USD, continue rising forever or even climb at a faster rate and so remain very interesting for further investors who will be full of hopium and buy more and more? Makes sense, the same thoughts had probably the bagholders around 1000 USD, when BTC suddenly dropped.

Or could it be that something different, more logical market behaviour could occur? What could it be and could it happen at the point of highest mania?
Figure it out on your own.  ;)

Regarding the alt market: Most alts are worthless, either clones of BTC or now ETH. You can count the alternative coins with a future on one hand, ETH, XMR, after them there is probably nothing, scam, vapour, more marketing then development.

Almost everybody expects a price rise when the halving comes. In the whole of bitcoin history the majority have pretty much always been wrong. I dont see why the halving would be any different. Im pretty sure the last halving did not signify a price increase. Im aware it went up a few months later but that may have been nothing to do with the halving. I hope im wrong.

i can only hope that the rate will rise until reach $800 when is halving, and after that still rise

What may happen at the halvening is that I'll be a Hero member on bitcointalk.  At that point bitcoin will probably still be pegged at $420 and all you hens will be whining about the rocket ship being short of fuel.  And I'd like to join a much better signature campaign at that point.  Good times ahead, good times.

Errr... and why do you think the price is already going up? how to you think china farms will handle half reward per block?
sorry, but what you said doesnt make sense.

if all altcoins are dropping with btc rise, that will be a good time to scoop up some cheap coins. Profit all the way back up.

GREED.

All people are here for are profits and they go where the wind blows.. understand ?

Moar cheap coins nom nom nom ?

I have heard this before..

The rise of Altcoins in late 2013 did not last long.
Once ASICS came out for scrypt it started a mass exodus of dumping.

Your inferred optimism is adorable you precocious little "investor"

But you seem to have forgotten one thing.. TIME.
Since Alt's have never met and exceeded the the rise in late 2013 we are STILL waiting.
So if you were one of the idiots who bought coins way back you are probably still waiting to ROI.
YEARS LATER !

So tell me my intelligent little trade pro investars what is more valuable.
Getting a profit in a few weeks period when BTC halves or waiting another 2 or 3 years
for the remote and unlikely possibility later with some Altcoin ?

Here is a good little story you guys will love..
A guy came in here and said he had borrowed his Mom's savings to buy "Name Coins" NMC
He had spent thousands of her dollars he said and that she was getting impatient
asking where her money is.. and he came here and told us i don't know what to tell her.
We all told him your fucked and wasting your time.. dump & take your loss.

Get it ?

How long is he going to wait until he gets a profit or at least his money back ?

If i can make $1 profit in 1 month simply holding on to Bitcoin
and i make $1 profit holding onto Altcoins for a whole year which dollar is worth more ?

Know why banks PAY YOU interest to store money there long term ?

I would call it distrust in cryptocurrencies. Majority of the people who are "supporting" particular coin (with frequent posts about how great it is, about its "useful features" etc.), are just another "shareholders", which at the end are measuring their "holdings" in Bitcoin or fiat money. They prefer to take their $10 now, instead working for something greater than their "profit".

This is one of the main problems of cryptocurrencies in general.

Why? why is that a problem?

There are a lot of people in crypto world, and just a little parcel are "linked" to a crypto(developers for example, or holders).
Crypto need the traders too, these investors buying and selling all day, work as marketing in crypto, and that is a good thing.

whales are going to still pump shitcoins and the day of the halving they are going to dump bitcoin.

yes right right! but that cheap coin must be vital to survive the price drop :) i hope we choose the best altcoin to invest on.

This will become madness, volume of trade will be insane! And Pump and Dump will be epic i believe. Halving is just right time for making some money, and everybody now waiting this to happen. I believe whole year will be very turbulent.

that can only be true for only a handfull of altcoins because most of them will die if their price goes down, it will be a ripple effect the first dump will lead to more dumps and even buyers can not find any dip because the price will be going down. so the coin will eventually be abandoned.

So the price might not rise during the halving period. But its price will rise eventually when more people use it.

I'm going to hold during the halving.
I think price is going up.

I think so too, but the price rise may happen few weeks after halving.

Yes it will rise to $800, but it will be short lived because people will sell their bitcoin as fast as possible.

If bitcoin got sold a lot, then the price will drop again.

Exactly, also at that price who will buy those sell orders. If you know how to ride the wave properly though you can profit by selling at the first sign of sell walls. From there on, altcoins will rise.

Price will a litle up

Everyone is expecting that the price will increase, but will people buy BTC at those high prices? or will people rather make use of the cheaper altcoins that are not subject to another halving or another difficulty increase etc.

I agree with you, in both of your claims.

First, $600 and $700 for me is a very conservative estimate. It could go up to $800 or even $850 a few months after the halving.

And yes, I believe a lot of altcoins will be dumped hard too. Especially ETH and other shitcoins. People will try to get into BTC before the halving, leaving the altcoins dead. My opinion is to hang on to your bitcoins and don't sell them. HODL.

if they see the price jumping they will buy when the train is started, yes, it was the same thing with the last pump i think, because when a pump start at least a double of the value is achieved i think, so you can be certain that it will not stop at 10% of the value that was pumped for example

you shouldnt underestimate the power of a buying frenzie. even when i know fine that some coin is being pumped i cant help but feel the need to buy some at some point so as not to miss out on the money that can be made riding the wave.

Probably some, but some will also think that they should just sell at a high price just to take the profit.