Bitcoin Forum

Nothing like tabloid worthy headlines :)

Definitely undergoing a price adjustment, I expect in part because the media drove a number of people to "check it out" however the uses for it are limited right now and as people settle in reality hits a little more.

I hope it goes down more.

Don't be trampled by the herd, this is the time to buy!

YOu can always buy options to hedge out your risk. We just launched trading at bitoption.org for btc options..

I wish there was an enforceable way to rent out my bitcoins to short-sellers.  it would be nice to get the short term cash flow in addition to the long term appreciation.

Lol?

It'll go up again.

I don't particularly care whether it goes up or down, I just hope it gets less volatile. Expect that will still take a long while though.

Volatility makes it really difficult to transition from speculation based economy to exchange based economy

All caps much? It's called a correction: if you ever look at the market history it always shoots up, corrects slightly and then continues with organic growth. Nothing alarming in the slightest, just a product of a comparitively small market.

Keeps things exciting, eh?

Billyjoeallen you can do this with options, easily.

What scenarios are wanting to make cash on?

The scenario is simple: I want to lend out my BTC with interest for whatever reason just as long as I get repaid.
MTGOX doesn't have options capability yet. No other exchange has enough volume.

We'll have good volume on bitoptions in the next week or two; why not throw out some high bids?

I just 'lent' BTC out at a rate of 72% annually if prices stay below $45 for the next 45 days. If they don't, I'll get $45 per BTC.

I did have to wait 24 hours, but I bet the buyer would have bought more, as they bought all five from me.


To do this trade, just bid on calls at a comfortable strike price, and a dollar price that gets you what you want to see. Not hard.

I offer loans. I am adding a trust metric soon. For small amounts, I'm ready to play.

I can show you how.

http://bitcoinweekly.com/articles/comic-reaction-after-dramatic-rise-of-bitcoin-s-value

I heard somebody screams, BITCOIN BUBBLE!

I don't quite understand. It sounds like you are either guaranteed to make 72% profit OR the difference between $45 and whatever your purchase price was.  If that's true, then the only risks are your exchange folding up and taking my BTC with it, OR the potential lost opportunity to profit of even more if the price goes up to >$45.  is this right?

You're correct in the case of selling a covered call, which is what I did.

This seems too good to be true. Why don't you just borrow money on your credit cards at 21%, buy bitcoins, lend them out and get a guaranteed 72%? 

Why didn't you have more than 5 BTC to lend?

It's not a guaranteed 72% unless bitcoins are worth what you paid for them before the option expires.

I wish someone would starting writing puts come on pumpers put your money where your mouth is

woooot i can afford to get some coins now, time to buy :)

Bitcoins are already worth more than double what I paid for them. I'd rent them to you if I could be reasonably certain I'd get paid back with interest. I just don't understand the best way to do that or if it's possible.

Write some puts on the option exchange I they will get snapped up fast

1) So, register at https://bitoption.org.

2) Deposit some BTC

3) On the right side, under Place an order, put in order in.

You want to keep your coins and get some cash, and are willing to give them up if the price goes up, say double again.

You want USD now, and are willing to sell BTC later for a fixed price. You are Writing a call, or "Asking".

So, you should write a call with strike of $50 US, closing, say end of July, and asking whatever you'd like in "interest".  "Interest" is really just USD that someone pays you for the right to buy if the price goes over the "strike price." It will be USD denominated; so once someone buys your call you can exchange back for BTC if you like, or keep it as USD if you prefer.

Attached is an explanatory image. https://i.imgur.com/mwVPx.png

So if I understand this correctly.
 
If I used your example, of 50USD per btc, in July.  If July comes and it doesn't hit that, I'm not out anything, right?  But if July comes and hits $50, then I get that $50 plus whatever I put in the strike price?
 
so it's a win-win?  Or do I lose if one of those parameters doesn't hit right?

ok. 20 BTC coming your way. I hope I can in this before the selling panic ends.

https://i.imgur.com/uVrXG.png

Um, Hes actually correct, the price of bitcoins is crashing.

So, tonto, your currency risks with that trade are essentially that BTC goes super low, and you'll wish you'd been able to sell, while they were instead locked up in the call until July 28.

The USD will go to you immediately, and you'll get either your BTC back, or the $50 at some point. If you don't get the $50 by the expiration date, you'll have the BTC unlocked and you can do it again, withdraw, exchange, whatever you like.

No, a group of speculators is pushing it up and down. It literally was down to $20 5 minutes ago and I refreshed the page 10 minutes later & trades were being done at $26.

A limit on trades per hour by one person could be useful.

Thanks for the new graph, I updated my post. I feared something awful may happen.

MtGox's ball bounced up again. And again, nothing to worry about.

Limiting trades is not the right answer. The graph is misleading; if you sell down all the way to $20, and then buy 1 BTC, you'll buy back at the original price up at say $26, and the price graph will look like that. You need to take into account volume; also, there's not enough high frequency trading and breadth to keep the graphs from looking like that right now.

The best thing that can happen right now is more traders, faster trade execution and keeping websockets up at Mt. Gox;all those will curb this a bit.

I wish I had had some more money in mtgox, woulda been nice to buy up at 20.

It was back down to 22.8, then I refreshed and got 22.5. It seems that the limited demand for coins by actual merchants and the potential shutdown by the US government are starting to scare people away.

It was back down to 22.8, then I refreshed and got 22.5. It seems that the limited demand for coins by actual merchants and the potential shutdown by the US government are starting to scare people away.
[/quote]

Price fluctuates wildly every weekend because wire transfers are disabled. You can't withdraw or add money by bank funds during Sat-Sun.

Take a look at historical data to back it up.

Trying to delude yourself into thinking the crash isn't happening is only going to make you lose more money!! you need to get out now before your btc are worthless!

Sell sell sell, and I'll buy buy buy, all you bitcoins at a dollar each! ;) :D J/K,  I get get a good deal buying bitcoins because of this market dip though

Don't worry I'm sure everything will be alright https://i.imgur.com/UA1jK.gif

edit: dropped even further since I made this post

Price fluctuates wildly every weekend because wire transfers are disabled. You can't withdraw or add money by bank funds during Sat-Sun.

Take a look at historical data to back it up.
[/quote]A viable currency shouldn't fluctuate so much when it first takes off. People who bought at 30+ BTC took a huge bath and probably have no confidence in the Bitcoin market now.

I have a question: does this means that difficult will decrease, or it is just a relative price compared to USD?

Thanks.

Sam is a troll.


https://i.imgur.com/NsJmS.png

It's you full time job to post this, isn't it.

Aah who am I kidding, it never gets old :D

Ok, I hope I did that right. 20 BTC is a lot to experiment with. How do I know if someone accepts my ask price? (buys the option)?

If I do an option to sell 500 Bitcoin by July 30th at the price of $20/coin which of your staff is going to make sure someone has $10,000 in the system so I can actually get that when I want to sell on July 1st?

Bitcoin cannot crash. The government cannot control bitcoin so it will not crash.

Markets only crash because of government control?...

the panic has ended, resume mining

Thank you. I was waiting for permission.

Funny, will we now see a thread like this when someone wants to buy some coins? :D

Hmm wierd because a lot of the bubbles I can think of (dot com, housing, credit crunch, etc) specifically occured because the government wasn't properly regulating them.

 :D

So are you saying that bitcoins need government backing?
Because I'm against that.

Raize, when we say escrowed, we mean it. They won't be able to take the other side of the contract unless they can fulfill.

That is to say, you wish to buy puts, right? You're going to spend a little USD for the right to sell at $20 between now and the end of july.

In exchange, the buyer(s) will have to have USD in the system.

Tonto, I'll keep an eye out. We wait for Gox to confirm, but you can always ping me if you get worried: admin@bitoption.com

The charts are looking sick now, IMO sell now before the panic starts, IMO.

On Saturday I posted a prediction that we'd see a Dead Cat Bounce up to $20 before falling below $10.  Well, its gone a bit over $20 since the crash and showing a downward trend again.  The MtGox market is pretty thin when the USA is asleep.  Whoever pumped and dumped the market last week is well aware of this.

The often repeated reason for Bitcoin's continued appreciation is the increasing difficulty in creating new Bitcoins.  This argument doesn't make much sense when you look at who is trading.  Most traders are not miners, therefore they don't care how much it costs to mine or how expensive a 6990 is.  There are already enough BTCs floating around to keep traders happy.

Shouldn't these troll threads be deleted by now?

So you're saying the price did NOT actually crash? If it did, then what's so troll about this thread?

Um no. They were regulated. Just not for our benefit. Form is not function.

Bitcoin is not immune to crashing.. I wish it was. No government regulation does not guarantee success. Regulation is not always a bad thing if done right..it's the human greed factor that screws things up.

Peace

Fear inciting hate mongers like you are the reason the housing market crashed. If you wan't to incite a panic go somewhere else.

LOL. Pretty sure the housing market had some pretty basic fundamental reasons it crashed (and has further to fall) than someone crying Sell!

Actually, volume consistently drops after a difficulty jump. Hence yes the traders are the miners. Now it's possible older miners have no reason to trade, nor even to mine that much, but new miners do in fact trade. And newer still are in college dormrooms and at home paying rent. There's a lot of accusations of hoarding which is skewing ppl's estimations of the market.

Also people so this silly thing of thinking of Bitcoin as a single priced item. It's not. It's short term inflationary, long term deflationary. It has a pricing window. When difficulty doesn't keep up there is a volatility increase. When it does go up, the bottom rises and consolidates, while the top panics. The bots from the weekend were truly ridiculous. But circuit breakers could eaily be written into the bots. Don't trade up or down in high speed movements.

So what do you guys think will become of the price now that difficulty has increased

I just stepped in with my 5x 5780 and I never had much luck before, so I think it will drop like a brick...

difficulty is a lagging and somewhat sticky indicator of price, not the other way around. besides, difficulty is known about in advance so could be priced in if people thought it would have an effect.

YMMD :D

You guys are forgetting that, despite the difficulty increase, the average number of bitcoin produced is still 50 every ten minutes. So, even if all the miners were trading, miners will still only ever be able to sell 7,200 bitcoin a day. I.E. supply of BTC on the market doesn't change with difficulty (SupplyxDemand stays the same). That's also a fairly small number compared to the overall daily volume.

When the price of bitcoins wasn't crashing, the "Volume" was running about 30k. Even assuming that was all straight trades and not bots buying and selling back and forth, 7,200 / 30,000 = 25%. How is 1/4 of the market not significant?

I remember when it was rallying or going up, the volume was at 100,000. It seems to crash when volume gets low (last night and this morning it went down to $12, and volume was 30k, but it went up to $16 now and volume is at 99k). You're right, 7,200 is significant, but that's also assuming that everyone who's mining is selling them right away. There's a lot of assumptions with all of these ideas I guess.

 ;D ;D ;D

Stop encouraging it :P

Well done sir!    ;D

not for long time

i agree