Bitcoin Forum

Here's my prediction - $30 (+/- 10%) would be the new consolidation level for a month or so. Then, once everybody is comfortable and all bears burned through their remaining fat, we continue upwards.

Obligatory future price pic pulled out of behind technical analysis:

http://i49.tinypic.com/jg40ue.png

If $30 is the new $5 then the market is going above $90 and bottoming at $12.
And MtGox will get hacked (really bad) at ~$86.50   :o

...or perhaps this is a new type of reality.

Yes, going to $180 and then bottoming to $12 when Japanese govt arrests Mark Karpeles for tax evasion and closes MtGox.

Well, ATM all walls are pulled. Let's see if the market is bullish or bearish by it self? Looks bullish!

Actually, something along these lines is what I half expect to happen. Maybe with extra insanity here and there but with a slightly more mature market behaviour than the last time.

Real is gonna change!

I don't think it will go like that. The all time high is less than 2 dollars away. It has enormous psychological effect, and it could spark a media blaze. It could get crazy sooner rather than later. We'll see I guess.

We will break the ATH soon, but there will be a pause then. Of course, I can be totally wrong, but I feel we are reaching a point of balance.

i have the same expectations

I hope the coinbases, bitinstants and bitpays of the world have all sorts of contingency plans laid out.

I also think we'll see a period of holding steady around $30-$32 while everyone who was into bitcoins in the first crash and got in at low prices get out,after that the price will carry on upwards. People who bought at $20+ only to see it crash to $2 will be thankful to get out unhurt and people who bought very low have made 5x or 6x their money, so it's fair enough if they want to get out, but i think after that we will carry on up to $50 region.

Even at $50 the entire bitcoin economy is only valued at $500m which is scary, in my opinion, because it could easily become a $1-5 billion net worth economy. When you look around at all the major bitcoin websites they all seem to be experiencing explosive growth. Coinbase has over 2,700 merchants signed up and growing rapidly, i think they will play a very important part in bringing the "underworld" bitcoin to the mainstream.

That's one thing i like about this "gamble", the price is not based on just one website or one company, it's basically representing the value of the entire bitcoin economy, so certainly has much bigger potential to reach a few billion in value.

At $32 there will be a whole shitload of articles on Bitcoin breaking it's All Time High. There is a reasonably good chance that this will attract investors who regard this moment as Bitcoin's coming of age. Although it's never easy to predict the market, I see no reason whatsoever that the current trend upwards is going to slow down.

This. The google search trend will break when this happens.

100's the new 1.

Cents are the new coins.

You wish.

Not really, to be honest. A big bubble would cause instability which I don't like. I'm not a trader, I'm not looking out for a bubble to profit from it. I'm interested in long term growth.

What I am doing is observing. That is my observation, nothing else.

Since there is lots of people ready to buy with both hands in case of any significant retracement, my guess is that it just goes up.

It seems so. This is the definition of a bull market. Corrections are simply a matter of who can, either by skill or luck, time the correction best and buy lowest. Fear of the gap closing in is larger than any fear of a permanent drop. I feel we're actually still in this situation.

Bitcoin would need to experience negative events, bad news, or a real super bubble, to reverse this situation. That's my opinion.

Subscribed to come back on April 1 and see how your tea leaves are doing.

Just out of curiosity, blablahblah: do you hold a position in BTC or are you all cashed out to fiat right now?

Ok! Sorry if it sounded like a BTC selloff. Here's to BTC being worth more than 25 EUR on April 1st!

$31 has arrived  ;D

You mean on monday ?

No, I really think we're not going much above 30 now. *maybe* spike to 33, then back to 27-30.

This rocket is now refueling on a previous orbit, before shooting straight to the moon.

I guess that makes a half-assed bear; not willing to sell, but not believing in triple digits in March either.

Nah, still think we won't see a new all time high this year.  I think we're just now turning the corner into some much needed profit taking that will drop the price by at least 1/3.

If the scaling is correct, at difficulty 2m, price reached 31 (average 15), so at difficulty 4m as it is going to be soon, price should be somewhere around 62 (average 30)

Real negative events happens unpredictably, that is why it is always hard to call a top or bottom.

$33 in the third month in 2013   :D

so it may be even more conservative than that, 28-32 would be the trading spread for some time.

To put things in perspective, this is what was happening in february 2011. Amazingly, if you multiply by 30, it looks very familiar, even the runup is at the same levels... Then broke psychological $1, consolidated for a month or so, and nobody ever saw $1 since.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2010-05-24zeg2011-04-25ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

PS hope the smart guy who bought 200k coins at 0.1 is still holding. That got to be the best 20k investment ever ;)

We all know what happened in 2011. A 45% drop in the bear market followed by a 5000% rise in the bull market. So by this metric we drop to 16 USD and then climb to 800 USD.

That's why this year will be exciting :) We'll see whether community learned something. For example, that spiking 30x in a month is not advisable.