Bitcoin Forum

Do you think Bitcoin will crash again as ASIC equipment such as the Avalons, Butterfly Labs and others start to ship? I'm not sure really, part of me thinks it will and part of me thinks it will stay about the same. Wish I had a crystal ball to know, hehe. Anyways, what are your opinions on this?

why would it?

at most 3600 btc are created a day

24 hour volume on mtgox (just one of many exchanges...not even counting otc trade here)
Volume:53246 BTC


even if every one of those 3600 were dumped what damage could it do?

The supply of BTC will be constant since the difficulty will adjust for it so no. The network will be more secure if any.

What exactly is the relationship between ASICs being shipped and the price?
Just asking, cuz I see none.

3600BTC per day (or a couple of hundred more) don't have that much of an impact on the market.

So?
Even if ALL coins generated per day are sold immediately that's only 3600 (+ a couple due to rising hashrate),
daily market volume on the other hand is 80k-100k, so the total market-impact is only 4-5%, pretty unlikely to cause a crash if you ask me.

That's nice to know. Nice simple way to explain it. 4-5% seems like a small variable, so not much change then.

There is a way of predicting this.
You compare the hashrate with the exchange rate (in this case US$ / BTC) this can be done very easy with excels RSQ function. You will get the coefficient of determination or R². The last time I checked it it was about 0,7 or 70% more or less.
This actually tells you the hashrate is (corrolating) depending on the exchange rate at 70% and at 30% for some other unknown reasons.
So if the hashrate is going up the price will be going up with a chance at about 70%.
 :-*

1. You can not compare the hashrate from the past with what's coming online within the next couple of months, hashrate is more or less guaranteed to skyrocket into heights never seen before.
2. It's not the price following the hashrate, it's the hashrate following the price. When the price rises, mining becomes profitable to more people, more people start mining, hashrate rises too.

IMO your calculations don't make any sense.  :D

Yay! \o/

It helps to study applied regression anlysis.

I think it's likely, but it will just be a coincidence.
The bitcoin price likes to crash every now and then just for the lolz.

this will be me.

that would be me.  i've never sold any Bitcoin from my gpu mining either.

i mean, why would you when you know their value will go up?

????? The price distinctly soared as soon as Avalon was proven to be real. 

TrollCoin:


"Bitcoin goes up, Bitcoin goes down.

You can't explain that."

Prices will crash when they ship or when the fuckup is accepted whatever happens sooner.

Everything can be explained with data crunching and data analysis.

The only argument I've ever heard for how ASICs could put downward pricing pressure on Bitcoins is that lots of miners who hold all the Bitcoins they mine will instead choose to sell some of them to get the money to upgrade to ASICs. I think this is a valid argument, but the big question is how significant this will be and whether it will be outweighed by other ways ASICs could put upward pricing pressure on Bitcoins. There, my crystal ball is not so clear.

The recent price increase could be related to people purchasing coins to get ready for ASIC purchases. Some people want to wait until shipments start to make their order. When they do, it could trigger a downward trend.

Sounds very possible.

My assumption, prices will dip a few dollars as some miners may want to sell asap to cover the costs of the equipment. My expectation at worst case scenario,$15.

Good time to flip a few BTC to LTC ?