Bitcoin Forum

I've been watching this market like a hawk, I figure this bubble has got to burst eventually, and when it does, it's going to crash fast (i.e. within a day).

In case I'm not watching. I built this to send me an SMS alert (http://www.bitcointextmessage.com) so I can get my coins out in time.

Haven't found any users yet..
What do you reckon.. Useful?

I figure you guys are also invested heavily.. What would it take to get people using it?

How do you pay for the txt messages ?

With Bitcoin of course!

The equivalent of 10c a message.

If you're one of the first users you get 5 for free

Looks good but it says new users will get 2 free.  And, it states boldly this is in alpha stage... It may not work.  I wouldn't say that is a confidence booster  ;)  You should have a test button so the users know the txt'ing is working. 

 Nice clean layout.

TC

So you're going to have a service that facilitates panic?

Awesome.

I'd sign up just to know when to buy my discount bitcoins. :)

There's going to be an arbitrary delay between when the SMS is sent out and when you actually log in to do anything about the situation. Isn't it easier to just have some orders waiting at certain price points to make sure you catch at least some of the action instantly? Then you can set up e-mail alerts for when those orders are fulfilled and just check your e-mail whenever you touch your phone - if the situation will still be favourable by the time you check your e-mail, just make a second, bigger, order.

Mt.gox mobile for android have an alarm function. If you a somewhere without data service, sms is nice so you can pull the hair off your head as you can't sell or buy without internet.

Ha! It works! I just got your SMS. :)
Good show.

It will only pop if demand for coin goes down ALOT.  Demand is really high right now.

Factor in increasing difficulty helps keep the value high.

Yeah seems to be. I keep waiting for the crash. The drop over the weekend was big, I figured it would trigger panic selling, but it didn't.

I figure most people are waiting for the peak to sell out.

I just can't see any good reason for it to keep rising, $30 is way overpriced relative to the difficulty & reward increase

lol the Mt.Gox mobile app force closes on Jellybean (4.1 and up).

LOL.

Hint: set up a poll. You would be surprised ;)

You're making the assumption it was properly priced before the "difficulty & reward increase".  Also, the reward decreased, and difficulty follows price, not the other way around.

+1

Member of CAVIRTEX already have similar option. You can program if BTC goes lower than X sell them or if btc goes higher than Y buy them etc + it sends you email notification automatically ;)

Looking at past price rises, the price rises steadily and then goes up increasingly fast just before the pop. Since we have been rising pretty steadily the past few weeks, I would not start worrying about a popping bubble until the rate of increase starts increasing. Basically what I am saying is if you buy now, the price after the spike and crash and consolidation will probably be higher than it is right now.

This is what I'm being wary of. The current growth seems to be linear, but the moment we get some kind of hockey-stick to exponential rise, it will be time to pull the investing irons out of the fire until it cools off.

Well maybe the value of bitcoin has really increased alot recently

After all it has backing from some mainstream investors (ala coinbase)

It has gained traction amoungst alot more users (just look at the blockchain)

I would say the 'system' is worth a lot more now as an investment than it was back in 2011, when there was a crash

Plus there are many more people trading the currency now on Gox and elsewhere and the markets are much deeper. A crash would be alot less likely.

ALot of the recent price rise has been due to coinbase, reddit and the usage of Bitcoin on legitimate sites. I'd say that its not unreasonable to assume the valuation of bitcoin is significantly higher now than in 2011, therefore a significantly higher price would also not be illogical.

The rate of growth (or shape of the hockey stick) does not mean that there is going to be a crash. A crash would be caused by investor panic - maybe especially if people realise there is no fundamental value  / fundamentals don't match the pricing.

ALthough I admit its more likely there will be a crash in the case of herd instinct investment (everybody invests at the same time which causes the hockey stick)

It seems there is widespread agreement that a bubble and crash are inevitable as a bunch of people who know nothing of speculation start buying bitcoins. Its just a matter of when and where it ends up.

I just remembered someone on here saying that bubble and crash were the wrong words to use if the thing survives. So replace those words with "hockeystick" and "correction".

It's way too early for a 2011 type crash, IMO.
Much more likely, we are due for a choppy, tedious correction to $20.32

Hmmm I guess it's possible.
When I bought in I did so  because I thought the reward halving would cause the price to double to 20ish fast, overshoot it then crash once people realised bitcoin still didn't have enough mainstream adoption to be useful to the mainstream.

I always planned to sell at around 20ish but the damn thing kept going up. I reckon we're set to see a sharp correction to around 22 but so far the rise has far exceeded my speculation expectation.

When giving such bold claim, you at least need to spend some brain cycles coming up with some arguments.

1. Price of the coin has been rising disproportionately to an increase in utility provided by goods and services, or an increase in usage by new bitcoin users.

2. The main reason for the rise is because of speculation. People are buying and holding on, waiting to sell out at the right time.

3. There will come a tipping point when the market mood changes, and there are no longer enough people interested in buying at the current price. Many will start to sell causing a sudden price drop, others will see this price drop and also sell before a further drop.

4. Panic will set in as people expect a further drop, and realise bitcoin is over priced..

So let me ask.. Of the people on here who hold coins, who is waiting for the right time to sell?

That would be your personal opinion, some would think the bitcoin at its current cost is underpriced. Usage of bitcoin has increased, and there's much more substance to the fundamentals now, than there was when the bubble happened the summer 2011.


That would also be your personal opinon. My opinion is that the bitcoin price has increased because of actual increased market demand. There may be corrections of course.

Sure nothing is impossible, but there has been quite a few sell offs during the last weeks, even during this weekend the price took a hit down to 28, but the price has rebounced quickly each time.

The market is more mature now, and as I said earlier, the fundamentals more solid, so there's real demand

It seems to me you're anticipating that currently we're on the top of a bubble, and that it could burst any time. Personally, I don't think it will happen, and for what it's worth, I've been around since early 2011.

My friends are either (in descending order of number of people):
- Never owned any, not interested in buying regardless, and waiting "for the bubble to burst"
- Never owned any, eagerly awaiting a reliable service through which to buy and store coins
- Never owned any, eagerly awaiting for a pullback but determined on buying sooner or later
- Sold out temporarily and waiting for an opportunity to buy back
- Accumulating steadily, regardless of the price
- Fully invested and planning to sell only to meet expenses or a small fraction of holdings in legendary bubble situations (eg. my friend who sold some in 2011 to buy a farm).

I don't know of anyone who has bought for the purpose of making a quick buck and is still holding. They made their buck already. That breed of people usually aim for 20% profit.

The demand vs supply dynamic on the order book does not point to another crash

There's also one other thing I'd add

In 2011, in the build up to the crash, the atmosphere on these forums was much different. People were talking about Bitcoin taking over the world, becoming the next US dollar, about a massive wealth transfer, things like this.

There was no discussion of any problems or obstacles, no consideration. Bitcoin had also not had some of the damages to its reputation from fraud, hacking, etc.. Many people had invested without considering these aspects.

I'd say the atmosphere is different here today. People are more aware of the risks and are not going to sell out quickly. Many people have seen what happened in the past and taken that into account when they bought into the currency.

Given the supply / demand trend that has been holding up recently, I also think a fizzle out is unlikely. I think we'll see trading in the 28 - 32 range, until further news is released which could affect support or resistance

It's funny watching all the Bitcoin fans trying to reassure themselves that the suddenly increased growth rate of the past month somehow indicates a rapidly rising equilibrium point. Much more probably the value will crash or fizzle back to something below $20 before the beginning of Q3 this year. There's no way what's happening now is sustainable. Just check the evolution of the number of companies accepting Bitcoin and you'll see - nothing special happened in January, this is just another hot air balloon, albeit inflating more slowly than the one in 2011.

A fizzle back to 20 would still be a success imo.

In your breathless monologue you seem to be forgetting that the people who are used to trading BTC fully realize the potential for any kind of correction or major retracement. The experienced users know the risks, and are riding the trend.

There's nothing to "reassure", price does all the talking. We're here for a reason, even if your shallow analysis seems incapable of describing what that is.

Lol, there will be no crash. We are going to make new high on mtgox

You may have a point if you can assume that the price was fair before January.  I would disagree with that assumption.

market will not crash, until its clear that its going to crash... wait for 26.42 and then panic sell mmmk?

Careful, you'd need to recover losses by playing poker again.

I make big profits, people say i have losses, I'm confused...

LOL, who said the two were mutually exclusive?

I'm not so sure the cause of bubbles isn't a bunch of people that know a hell of a lot about speculation starting to buy bitcoins.

that's actually quite a good plan.

You have to watch for the spike.  Every crash has been preceded by a rapid spike.  This bubble hasn't been inflating fast enough to pop, because there is a small correction every few days.  What I did was set a sell order on Mt.Gox for where I think the spike will peak.  I haven't had to adjust the spike value up yet, but I will need to soon.