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Title: What will the price do when the reward halves again in November of 2016? Post by: notig on March 02, 2013, 06:45:11 AM yeah yeah... the new coins that are a subsidy don't account for a great percentage that are in circulation. But it's still meaningful.
Title: Re: What will the price do when the reward halves again in November of 2016? Post by: Bit_Happy on March 02, 2013, 06:55:48 AM Rally!
Title: Re: What will the price do when the reward halves again in November of 2016? Post by: mccorvic on March 02, 2013, 07:01:52 AM Title: Re: What will the price do when the reward halves again in November of 2016? Post by: Stephen Gornick on March 02, 2013, 09:44:51 AM Seriously?
Well, the production will decline by half, from 25 BTC per block to 12.5 BTC per block (which, at 144 blocks today means a drop from 3,600 BTC per-day to 1,800 per-day). So at block 420,000 there will be 15,750,000 BTC minted (more than 3/4ths of all coins that will ever be mined). The rate of currency inflation will drop from an 8.3% rate on an annual basis to a 4.1% currency inflation rate. The speculation occurring today may already include a premium due to the weighing of this event -- even though it is still roughly 3.75 years away. Title: Re: What will the price do when the reward halves again in November of 2016? Post by: notme on March 02, 2013, 06:12:13 PM Seriously? Well, the production will decline by half, from 25 BTC per block to 12.5 BTC per block (which, at 144 blocks today means a drop from 3,600 BTC per-day to 1,800 per-day). So at block 420,000 there will be 15,750,000 BTC minted (more than 3/4ths of all coins that will ever be mined). The rate of currency inflation will drop from an 8.3% rate on an annual basis to a 4.1% currency inflation rate. The speculation occurring today may already include a premium due to the weighing of this event -- even though it is still roughly 3.75 years away. This. Intelligent speculators understand the supply side of the fundamentals before they make their first trade. Sure, there will always be a few who are taken by surprise, but that will be a smaller and smaller portion of the market each time it happens. Title: Re: What will the price do when the reward halves again in November of 2016? Post by: gimme_bottles on March 02, 2013, 06:14:22 PM you don't have to ask yourself what will happen to the price at the next block halving. you have to ask yourself where the price will be by then :P
Title: Re: What will the price do when the reward halves again in November of 2016? Post by: FreeMoney on March 02, 2013, 07:34:24 PM Every halving is mostly priced in from the beginning as they are literally part of the definition of Bitcoin. The demand for the coin only results in a price because it interacts with a limited supply, there is only a limited supply because of halvings.
Title: Re: What will the price do when the reward halves again in November of 2016? Post by: Melbustus on March 02, 2013, 09:30:47 PM Every halving is mostly priced in from the beginning as they are literally part of the definition of Bitcoin. The demand for the coin only results in a price because it interacts with a limited supply, there is only a limited supply because of halvings. Yeah, I think most of us consider the supply to simply be 21,000,000 and that's that. How it gets to 21m is just a short-term implementation detail. :-) Title: Re: What will the price do when the reward halves again in November of 2016? Post by: Odalv on March 02, 2013, 09:42:30 PM if there will halving then bitcoin will still here. If bitcoin will exist then it will still raising above $8000 :-) And about 100M users adopted.
Title: Re: What will the price do when the reward halves again in November of 2016? Post by: no name on March 02, 2013, 09:44:13 PM I guess over $150 and under $500.
Title: Re: What will the price do when the reward halves again in November of 2016? Post by: Littleshop on March 02, 2013, 09:44:41 PM if there will halving then bitcoin will still here. If bitcoin will exist then it will still raising above $8000 :-) And about 100M users adopted. I will throw out a guess of $700 for the next halving. Just wild speculation. Title: Re: What will the price do when the reward halves again in November of 2016? Post by: johnyj on March 03, 2013, 01:55:04 AM By that time, people will use bitcarat (0.001 btc) to count, daily generation dropped from 2500000 bitcarat to 1250000 bitcarat, still feels quite a lot ;)
Title: Re: What will the price do when the reward halves again in November of 2016? Post by: nobbynobbynoob on March 03, 2013, 02:06:16 AM By that time, people will use bitcarat (0.001 btc) to count, daily generation dropped from 2500000 bitcarat to 1250000 bitcarat, still feels quite a lot ;) Ah, a new name for bitmill! :) Online gaming's widely adopted BTM or mBTC already as a standard unit - forward thinking, in my book. But at any road, it will be some time before we hit $1k per BTC. Mainstream adoption of BTC, should it even occur (big if), will surely suggest $100k+ per BTC or $100+ per BTM. Eventually. Or maybe not. ;D You gotta love markets and BTC! |