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Title: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: adaseb on May 27, 2016, 09:44:45 AM On Stackexchange I found a great analysis of the Difficulty bomb that was adjusted in the Homestead release.
As you can see in the chart, even if people stop adding GPUs to the network today, it will make it very difficult to mine in about a year. Right now with 14 second blocktimes we make very little, imagine blocktimes of 5 minutes. Also this is assuming static difficulty, most likely the difficulty will keep doubling every 2-3 months which will bring the blocktime to a few minutes sometime at the end of the year. The author posted the python script, so if someone is good at programming they might be able to recalculate the result using todays difficulty of 42T and with the exponential difficulty increase with GPUs being added to the market. Looks like the 2GB GPUs will be able to outlast this so there is basically no point in buying GPUs bigger than 2GB. http://ethereum.stackexchange.com/questions/3779/when-will-the-difficulty-bomb-make-mining-impossible/3800#3800 Quote Difficulty on 2016-06-03 is 35.15 T and average blocktime is 14.99 seconds. Difficulty on 2016-07-07 is 35.18 T and average blocktime is 15.00 seconds. Difficulty on 2016-08-02 is 35.25 T and average blocktime is 15.03 seconds. Difficulty on 2016-09-06 is 35.56 T and average blocktime is 15.16 seconds. Difficulty on 2016-10-02 is 36.40 T and average blocktime is 15.52 seconds. Difficulty on 2016-11-06 is 40.17 T and average blocktime is 17.13 seconds. Difficulty on 2016-12-02 is 48.56 T and average blocktime is 20.71 seconds. Difficulty on 2017-01-05 is 88.83 T and average blocktime is 37.88 seconds. Blocktime over one minute in January 2017 Difficulty on 2017-02-09 is 249.8 T and average blocktime is 106.5 seconds. Difficulty on 2017-03-07 is 679.3 T and average blocktime is 4.829 minutes. Difficulty on 2017-04-02 is 1.753 P and average blocktime is 12.46 minutes. Difficulty on 2017-05-07 is 6.907 P and average blocktime is 49.09 minutes. Blocktime over one hour in May 2017 Difficulty on 2017-06-02 is 20.65 P and average blocktime is 146.8 minutes. Difficulty on 2017-07-07 is 82.50 P and average blocktime is 9.773 hours. Blocktime over one day in July 2017 Difficulty on 2017-08-02 is 219.9 P and average blocktime is 26.06 hours. Difficulty on 2017-09-05 is 879.6 P and average blocktime is 4.342 days. Blocktime over one week in September 2017 Difficulty on 2017-10-02 is 2.639 E and average blocktime is 13.02 days. Blocktime over one month in October 2017 Difficulty on 2017-11-05 is 10.55 E and average blocktime is 7.443 weeks. Difficulty on 2017-12-01 is 28.14 E and average blocktime is 4.962 month. Difficulty on 2018-01-05 is 112.5 E and average blocktime is 19.84 month. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: bathrobehero on May 27, 2016, 02:54:50 PM Great stuff, I never even knew about the difficulty bomb before.
Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: ps_jb on May 27, 2016, 03:59:07 PM Increase in difficulty will decrease the mined coins, which will increase their price - so for the same ETH->fiat you can buy additional GPUs and continue
Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Kalamsid on May 27, 2016, 04:07:52 PM This time bomb will be defused according to the Ethereum developers. The PoS will start later than expected.
Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Amph on May 27, 2016, 04:53:29 PM again if you are here only because right now ethereum is profitable, you are pretty naive to the whole cryptoscene...
see you in the next two years with another "ethereum high profit coin" and anyway the diff will not double again in few months, doubled one time is a thing, doubling two times is a completely different story good luck adding another 100k gpu or so Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: GMPoison on May 28, 2016, 12:38:59 AM again if you are here only because right now ethereum is profitable, you are pretty naive to the whole cryptoscene... No one is going to mine an unprofitable coin. Ethereum is profitable now, so people mine it. By the time it's no longer, you'll have made your profits, upgraded your gear, and moved on to the next profitable coin.see you in the next two years with another "ethereum high profit coin" and anyway the diff will not double again in few months, doubled one time is a thing, doubling two times is a completely different story good luck adding another 100k gpu or so Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: toptek on May 28, 2016, 04:20:40 AM bitmain just open up a eth pool either they care again or are worried but btc are on the way up again i just noticed maybe good times again.
stratum-eth.antpool.com:8008 stratum-eth.antpool.com:443 stratum-eth.antpool.com:25 or a third Possibility i won't say i hope it's not . Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Tmdz on May 28, 2016, 05:07:50 AM I didn't realize this bomb existed.
So the bomb is active and speaking in todays terms the hash rate exceeds the rates this bomb causes the difficulty to increase. Meaning if we had a stagment hashrate we would continue to see a difficulty rise and the block time would increase. So basically the bomb will have no effect on block time until people stop adding gpu's and that won't happen until the profit gets to that thin margin point. The whole idea is to force people into POS due to the fact there will be no profit to mine and eventually the block chain would freeze. Its actually quite clever and sneaky to put something like that into the code. 6 Months sounds like a pretty accurate estimate for mining time left, altho if the price can trend up further that could be pushed out. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Amph on May 28, 2016, 05:57:16 AM again if you are here only because right now ethereum is profitable, you are pretty naive to the whole cryptoscene... No one is going to mine an unprofitable coin. Ethereum is profitable now, so people mine it. By the time it's no longer, you'll have made your profits, upgraded your gear, and moved on to the next profitable coin.see you in the next two years with another "ethereum high profit coin" and anyway the diff will not double again in few months, doubled one time is a thing, doubling two times is a completely different story good luck adding another 100k gpu or so it depend on electricity, go to whattomine and put 0.03 cent in electricity, the result is that the top 20 altcoin are suddenly profitable.. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: sakinaka on May 28, 2016, 06:24:10 PM I don't understand. If the difficulty increases, it means that more people are mining it, so more GPUs, and thus the blocktime will stay the same.
Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: philipma1957 on May 28, 2016, 06:34:40 PM all it means is you need 2 positions mining.
1 in btc ½ 1 in eth ½ and three in holding cash ⅓ eth ⅓ btc.. ⅓ check your numbers every day and be prepared to shift your shit around. Always keep an eye out for a new hot alt coin Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: reb0rn21 on June 07, 2016, 11:39:18 AM If anyone thinks price will go up as mining profitability drop, think twice, price has nothing with mining difficulty, never had, its all on team with premined ethereum and their P/D scheme!
If anyone think ethereum is gona be BTC 2.0, I wish you luck with holding 90% premined (72 Million eth) scam :) Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: adaseb on June 07, 2016, 01:01:43 PM If anyone thinks price will go up as mining profitability drop, think twice, price has nothing with mining difficulty, never had, its all on team with premined ethereum and their P/D scheme! If anyone think ethereum is gona be BTC 2.0, I wish you luck with holding 90% premined (72 Million eth) scam :) Most of those premined coins were from their ICO and most likely they were all sold for profit. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: costi.kocev on June 09, 2016, 01:29:59 PM Did the bomb is boooooming today?
The Difficulty rises today is huuuuge. ??? Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Tmdz on June 09, 2016, 01:50:42 PM Did the bomb is boooooming today? The Difficulty rises today is huuuuge. ??? No, Farms are feverishly adding gpu cards to increase hash and the global has rate is soaring higher every day, the network is increasing difficulty to control block times. The difficulty bomb is when hash no longer increases but difficulty does and block times increase, so far that has not happened. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: dannygroove on June 09, 2016, 01:58:01 PM Did the bomb is boooooming today? The Difficulty rises today is huuuuge. ??? Yeah, almost at 50 Trillion. Will this sustain? If price drops to pre DAO lows I dont know what will happen. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: adaseb on June 09, 2016, 04:40:54 PM Did the bomb is boooooming today? The Difficulty rises today is huuuuge. ??? Yeah, almost at 50 Trillion. Will this sustain? If price drops to pre DAO lows I dont know what will happen. It will probably still keep rising. Still this is much more profitable than an Antminer S7 so people will keep adding GPUs. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: dannygroove on June 09, 2016, 05:38:15 PM Did the bomb is boooooming today? The Difficulty rises today is huuuuge. ??? Yeah, almost at 50 Trillion. Will this sustain? If price drops to pre DAO lows I dont know what will happen. It will probably still keep rising. Still this is much more profitable than an Antminer S7 so people will keep adding GPUs. Yup, I'll start adding 2 S9 to my farm after halving since everyone wants to mine ETH. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: onemd on June 09, 2016, 05:54:25 PM Did the bomb is boooooming today? The Difficulty rises today is huuuuge. ??? Yeah, almost at 50 Trillion. Will this sustain? If price drops to pre DAO lows I dont know what will happen. It will probably still keep rising. Still this is much more profitable than an Antminer S7 so people will keep adding GPUs. For the farms with low electricity price, they will keep on adding the miners. I hope they will invest wisely. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: mymenace on June 09, 2016, 07:45:13 PM If anyone thinks price will go up as mining profitability drop, think twice, price has nothing with mining difficulty, never had, its all on team with premined ethereum and their P/D scheme! If anyone think ethereum is gona be BTC 2.0, I wish you luck with holding 90% premined (72 Million eth) scam :) Most of those premined coins were from their ICO and most likely they were all sold for profit. I can assure you that is not the case. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Dev_Sempak_coin on June 10, 2016, 02:40:37 AM sorry im newbie at block and mining, if we need one month to find and solve 1 block
Quote Blocktime over one month in October 2017 how about transaction? so we must waiting 1month to get confirmation ? Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Tmdz on June 10, 2016, 05:36:21 AM They will switch over to POS before something like that happens.
That is to make difficulty too high to make a profit mining, forcing the switch over to POS. But there are talks about taking the difficulty bomb away as they think the new version for POS will take more time and testing than anticipated. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Amph on June 10, 2016, 05:38:30 AM it does not matter anymore, etheruem is not the most profitable lately, there are better option
Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: onemd on June 10, 2016, 12:08:38 PM it does not matter anymore, etheruem is not the most profitable lately, there are better option What are the more profitable coins? I am interested in know the coins. But the Ethereum difficulty is still rising. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Amph on June 10, 2016, 01:04:22 PM it does not matter anymore, etheruem is not the most profitable lately, there are better option What are the more profitable coins? I am interested in know the coins. But the Ethereum difficulty is still rising. whattomine and use boosted hash for lyra2v2 Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: viksa86 on June 11, 2016, 12:52:05 AM it does not matter anymore, etheruem is not the most profitable lately, there are better option What are the more profitable coins? I am interested in know the coins. But the Ethereum difficulty is still rising. whattomine and use boosted hash for lyra2v2 Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: onemd on June 11, 2016, 01:20:37 PM it does not matter anymore, etheruem is not the most profitable lately, there are better option What are the more profitable coins? I am interested in know the coins. But the Ethereum difficulty is still rising. whattomine and use boosted hash for lyra2v2 For the 280x, if you run it at 1000/1500MHz, the speed is about 20 MH/s. But it drops about 1% every DAG change. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: pehoko on June 12, 2016, 09:40:59 AM How much hashrate is enough for solo mining?
Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Xising on June 12, 2016, 05:18:52 PM How much hashrate is enough for solo mining? If you have very good network connection to the outside world, very low latency, 200MH/s is enough. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Candsno8 on June 15, 2016, 12:16:05 AM How much hashrate is enough for solo mining? If you have very good network connection to the outside world, very low latency, 200MH/s is enough. What speed is very good connection? Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Amph on June 15, 2016, 05:49:31 AM How much hashrate is enough for solo mining? depend on what coin you want to mine for ethereum you need something like 400 giga to able to find block on a regular bases i would say that for any solo you need 1/10 of the hashnet, but some times i do it with 1/20, no more than that, it depend on how much is the block time.... Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: onemd on June 16, 2016, 02:44:54 PM How much hashrate is enough for solo mining? If you have very good network connection to the outside world, very low latency, 200MH/s is enough. What speed is very good connection? It is mainly the latency to connect to the outside world. If the latency is too high, you will have lots of stale blocks. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Raja_MBZ on June 17, 2016, 01:05:30 PM That might not be correct. Do keep in mind, that not only the difficulty is increasing, but the value of ethereum is increasing at the same time too. If the cost of ethers keep on increasing with the current rate, there might be a lot more mining left in ethereum, regardless what the mining difficulty becomes.
Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Juhagic on June 17, 2016, 04:01:57 PM That might not be correct. Do keep in mind, that not only the difficulty is increasing, but the value of ethereum is increasing at the same time too. If the cost of ethers keep on increasing with the current rate, there might be a lot more mining left in ethereum, regardless what the mining difficulty becomes. If the price increase at the same rate as the difficulty, it is profitable to mine if you calculate using the fiat. But it is better to buy the coin instead of mining, you will make more profit. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: CryR on June 18, 2016, 02:05:13 AM Everybody will change the mining to Decred 8)
Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: QuintLeo on June 18, 2016, 08:16:31 AM That might not be correct. Do keep in mind, that not only the difficulty is increasing, but the value of ethereum is increasing at the same time too. If the cost of ethers keep on increasing It didn't - massive collapse in price the last couple days, both vs. Bitcoin and overall. Still profitable for most, but ROI on new gear just became REALLY SUPER iffy at best. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Juhagic on June 20, 2016, 11:45:48 AM That might not be correct. Do keep in mind, that not only the difficulty is increasing, but the value of ethereum is increasing at the same time too. If the cost of ethers keep on increasing It didn't - massive collapse in price the last couple days, both vs. Bitcoin and overall. Still profitable for most, but ROI on new gear just became REALLY SUPER iffy at best. The Etheruem price dropped a lot in the last few days. It is better not to buy the new gear to build mining farms. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: sanas on June 20, 2016, 01:52:22 PM Shall we ask the Etheruem developers to let the PoW mining continue for a few more years so that we can protect the network more properly?
Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Psynthax on June 21, 2016, 02:03:09 AM they should keep ethereum on POW IMHO
Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Amph on June 21, 2016, 06:06:02 AM they should keep ethereum on POW IMHO but the point here is that even if they do that, due to the diff increasing in this stupid way, you would end up not mining anything at the end so is not even a matter of adding more gpu at this point Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Psynthax on June 21, 2016, 07:59:17 AM Yeah true that.. I am gonna add more GPUs anyway, but will mine the most profitable coin..
Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: sanas on June 21, 2016, 12:39:05 PM they should keep ethereum on POW IMHO but the point here is that even if they do that, due to the diff increasing in this stupid way, you would end up not mining anything at the end so is not even a matter of adding more gpu at this point I will not add any more GPU at the moment. But some cheap electricity users are adding the GPU at the moment. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: onemd on June 21, 2016, 06:07:09 PM they should keep ethereum on POW IMHO but the point here is that even if they do that, due to the diff increasing in this stupid way, you would end up not mining anything at the end so is not even a matter of adding more gpu at this point I will not add any more GPU at the moment. But some cheap electricity users are adding the GPU at the moment. the Ethereum network mining difficulty level is 51 T now. It is another all time high. These new miners are very confident. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Amph on June 21, 2016, 06:39:13 PM they should keep ethereum on POW IMHO but the point here is that even if they do that, due to the diff increasing in this stupid way, you would end up not mining anything at the end so is not even a matter of adding more gpu at this point I will not add any more GPU at the moment. But some cheap electricity users are adding the GPU at the moment. the Ethereum network mining difficulty level is 51 T now. It is another all time high. These new miners are very confident. they are not very confident, they simply can not mine anything else they are forced to stay there they cannot simply switch to another algo and destroy it, no other coin can sustain even 1/4(probably 1/8, i didn't do the math here) of the etheruem hashrate Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: onemd on June 23, 2016, 01:19:35 PM they should keep ethereum on POW IMHO but the point here is that even if they do that, due to the diff increasing in this stupid way, you would end up not mining anything at the end so is not even a matter of adding more gpu at this point I will not add any more GPU at the moment. But some cheap electricity users are adding the GPU at the moment. the Ethereum network mining difficulty level is 51 T now. It is another all time high. These new miners are very confident. they are not very confident, they simply can not mine anything else they are forced to stay there they cannot simply switch to another algo and destroy it, no other coin can sustain even 1/4(probably 1/8, i didn't do the math here) of the etheruem hashrate You are right. Some miners have already ordered the parts, so they have to build the farm equipment any way. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Kalamsid on June 27, 2016, 07:06:18 PM they should keep ethereum on POW IMHO but the point here is that even if they do that, due to the diff increasing in this stupid way, you would end up not mining anything at the end so is not even a matter of adding more gpu at this point I will not add any more GPU at the moment. But some cheap electricity users are adding the GPU at the moment. the Ethereum network mining difficulty level is 51 T now. It is another all time high. These new miners are very confident. they are not very confident, they simply can not mine anything else they are forced to stay there they cannot simply switch to another algo and destroy it, no other coin can sustain even 1/4(probably 1/8, i didn't do the math here) of the etheruem hashrate You are right. Some miners have already ordered the parts, so they have to build the farm equipment any way. The difficulty is 55T now. So those miners have ordered too many parts to build the mining farms. Hope they can make some profit. Title: Re: Ethereum Mining Bomb (Probably only 6 more months of ETH mining left) Post by: Juhagic on June 28, 2016, 05:04:26 PM they should keep ethereum on POW IMHO but the point here is that even if they do that, due to the diff increasing in this stupid way, you would end up not mining anything at the end so is not even a matter of adding more gpu at this point I will not add any more GPU at the moment. But some cheap electricity users are adding the GPU at the moment. the Ethereum network mining difficulty level is 51 T now. It is another all time high. These new miners are very confident. they are not very confident, they simply can not mine anything else they are forced to stay there they cannot simply switch to another algo and destroy it, no other coin can sustain even 1/4(probably 1/8, i didn't do the math here) of the etheruem hashrate You are right. Some miners have already ordered the parts, so they have to build the farm equipment any way. The difficulty is 55T now. So those miners have ordered too many parts to build the mining farms. Hope they can make some profit. So these guys think there will not be a mining bomb which was originally to explode some where around November? |