|
Title: It needs a long time from Bear shouting to a real top - for any bubble. Post by: twolifeinexile on March 04, 2013, 01:56:26 PM I still remember quite vividly in 2003, I read several eonomist articles on housing bubble that is very very convincing and blame Greenspan make american's house as the "ATM" for economy. But as we all know, it is actally almost the starting of the housing bubble, the whole world had an amazing run after this early bear shout-out;
I still remember the gold bubble since 2009, where gold solid went beyond 1000 and people begain the questioning its validity. Goldbugs, babarrians....But untill the US treasury downgrade risk flare, which is 2011, gold enjoyed another amazing run. Whether current bitcoin situation is a bubble or not, bears who feel unconfortable about current price level is definitely not in a position to guess the top right, it is simly too hard. (Even bears are right). Notwithunderstanding bitcoins' binary potential (either worthless or worth a tons of fortune), so I suggest both bulls and bears take some huimility and just take whatever direction you believe in and calme down. Title: Re: It needs a long time from Bear shouting to a real top - for any bubble. Post by: piramida on March 04, 2013, 02:29:25 PM I suggest both bulls and bears take some huimility and just take whatever direction you believe in and calme down. But we need to do something while passively waiting for the price to grow to 1 gazillion! So let us :) And I really don't know what bears are waiting for. Summer maybe to get out of the cave? Title: Re: It needs a long time from Bear shouting to a real top - for any bubble. Post by: Richy_T on March 04, 2013, 03:30:07 PM Here's the thing. There can be a bubble and still be an underlying real increase in value. In this case, if a bubble collapses, particularly if it is not a hugely inflated bubble, that may not mean a collapse to almost worthless prices but to pre-bubble levels or maybe even higher depending on underlying growth.
I believe this may be what we are seeing with bitcoin, rapid rises from micro-bubbles followed by periods of stability as those bubbles deflate. This is not a bad thing but merely market mechanisms at play. The main thing to realize is that there are no government forces at work as there has been with really serious bubbles such as the housing one (though one could argue that the government trashing the dollar is having some effect). Pump & dump is not really at play and may even have been somewhat defused by the previous crash. Title: Re: It needs a long time from Bear shouting to a real top - for any bubble. Post by: niko on March 04, 2013, 03:32:01 PM "Long time" and "bubble" are relative terms, based on completely arbitrary time scale you choose to look at the data. There is a bubble every day.
The shouting of bulls and bears usually never specifies time - at best you get vague references such as "soon". |