Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: pretendo on March 04, 2013, 06:22:22 PM



Title: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: pretendo on March 04, 2013, 06:22:22 PM
once those people spend themselves out of the market. The price is going to fall back to around ~$34


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: zoinky on March 04, 2013, 06:26:24 PM
That's like your opinion man.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: Junko on March 04, 2013, 06:26:29 PM
Sure, keep telling yourself that.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: ajk on March 04, 2013, 06:27:14 PM
lol i like the bullish/bearishness

crazy though, i was expecting movement but in the other direction!!!, at this point I think the amount of new money coming in is very high, also the demo that bitcoin is after is pretty deep pockets so seeing predictions in the 50-100 dollar range may definitely be reachable especially at this rate of growth,

shit is going to be going nuts if we start seeing hedge funds and people buying and selling millions at a time if there ever so happens to be a time like this in the foreseeable future


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: Piper67 on March 04, 2013, 06:28:25 PM
lol i like the bullish/bearishness

crazy though, i was expecting movement but in the other direction!!!, at this point I think the amount of new money coming in is very high, also the demo that bitcoin is after is pretty deep pockets so seeing predictions in the 50-100 dollar range may definitely be reachable especially at this rate of growth,

shit is going to be going nuts if we start seeing hedge funds and people buying and selling millions at a time if there ever so happens to be a time like this in the foreseeable future

The thing is, for hedge funds to start moving millions into BTC each BTC has to be worth a lot more than it is today... kind of like a self feeding cycle of frenzy, really  ;D


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: ryanAC on March 04, 2013, 06:30:02 PM
There are some hormone treatments that might help with the dryness problem?


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: blackreplica on March 04, 2013, 06:32:20 PM
You're absolutely wrong. It will fall back to $34.72. So there


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: ajk on March 04, 2013, 06:33:11 PM
I hope it does and I hope they will :)


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: Skrivitor on March 04, 2013, 06:34:34 PM
How do you feel about the Coinlabs/bitcoin deal? http://bitcoinmagazine.com/coinlab-bringing-bitcoin-to-wall-street-with-mtgox-deal/ (http://bitcoinmagazine.com/coinlab-bringing-bitcoin-to-wall-street-with-mtgox-deal/)

The market exuberance is partially due to mining speculation, I am sure Avalon-ASIC taking BTC payments has bumped the trend.

There is a wildcard with the Chinese, they are very close to a bubble burst/economic meltdown from their real estate sector.  I am really curious about acceptance of Bitcoin in the Asian market.  This is totally speculative, but Bitcoin would be an attractive place for savings savvy Chinese to store wealth; so far the returns far exceed inflation.  Bitcoin will also have the advantage of being very fluid in a market driven by export and manufacturing.  Once one site starts accepting Bitcoin on the Chinese mainland it could cause a resurgence.  Probably what is holding back the flood gates is Chinese offshore investment laws.

lol i like the bullish/bearishness

crazy though, i was expecting movement but in the other direction!!!, at this point I think the amount of new money coming in is very high, also the demo that bitcoin is after is pretty deep pockets so seeing predictions in the 50-100 dollar range may definitely be reachable especially at this rate of growth,

shit is going to be going nuts if we start seeing hedge funds and people buying and selling millions at a time if there ever so happens to be a time like this in the foreseeable future

Again, China.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: ajk on March 04, 2013, 06:37:36 PM
GO CHINA GOOOOOO


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: pretendo on March 04, 2013, 06:38:00 PM
Better mining equipment isn't a reason to believe in stable high prices.

And I am not bearish at all. I want bitcoins to continue to skyrocket forever, since I own some. Look through my post history; if this prediction is wrong, it will be the first wrong prediction I have posted here.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: humanitee on March 04, 2013, 06:39:23 PM
The Coinlabs/Gox deal (will create)/(has created) secret rocket conditions.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: ajk on March 04, 2013, 06:41:10 PM
I said bearish/bullish for a reason sir..

Reason being is because even if we went down to 34 that is not really bad at all.. if anything probably would set us up to get even higher with the way things have been going

i also hold bitcoins and am long forever if you want to waste your time and read through my posts im definitely going to read yours(SARCASM)

and also why not?

at this point any news that isnt bad is good for bitcoin, everyone wants them and the price is probably going to be 100 USD within the year


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: RodeoX on March 04, 2013, 06:46:20 PM
That's like your opinion man.
+1
I lost count at about 1 million, But a lot of people come here and make bold statements about the future. Yet no one in history has be able to predict the future. So, what you have is a guess, not a logical fact.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: waspoza on March 04, 2013, 06:59:23 PM
No charts with lines? I'm disapointed, OP.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: lebing on March 04, 2013, 06:59:34 PM
That's like your opinion man.

We should make a sticky with just this statement in this subforum.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: Bit_Happy on March 04, 2013, 07:24:45 PM
once those people spend themselves out of the market. The price is going to fall back to around ~$34

Ha, learn from history:
More like $70 to $80 then back to $15  :D


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: molecular on March 04, 2013, 07:38:42 PM
once those people spend themselves out of the market. The price is going to fall back to around ~$34

I agree. Don't know if yet, but if the last 2 months are an indication we'll see a healthy pullback of 2-3$. Hopefully it will be equally quickly digested as in the previous instances.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: molecular on March 04, 2013, 07:40:27 PM
You're absolutely wrong. It will fall back to $34.72. So there

Doesn't seem so scary to me. That was roughly the all-time high just a few hours ago.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: humanitee on March 04, 2013, 07:42:58 PM
You're absolutely wrong. It will fall back to $34.72. So there

Doesn't seem so scary to me. That was roughly the all-time high just a few hours ago.


Plus tomorrow is TUESDAY.
AH YEAH


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: byronbb on March 04, 2013, 07:43:47 PM
Irrational exuberance of the bears.....


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: Qoheleth on March 04, 2013, 07:49:08 PM
The Coinlabs/Gox deal (will create)/(has created) secret rocket conditions.
"Secret rocket" is still my favorite Bitcointalk idiom.

Also, it's sort of amusing that we're talking about "crashing to" a price above 2011's all-time high.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: Piper67 on March 04, 2013, 07:52:57 PM
The Coinlabs/Gox deal (will create)/(has created) secret rocket conditions.
"Secret rocket" is still my favorite Bitcointalk idiom.

Also, it's sort of amusing that we're talking about "crashing to" a price above 2011's all-time high.

At this point, the bears will take it  :D


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: pretendo on March 04, 2013, 08:47:45 PM
Irrational exuberance of the bears.....
is there anyone that shorts bitcoin?

Look, if the resentment and disdain for bears in this thread shows anything, it's that there's a lot of people that live in their own optimistic world that bitcoin will never take a step back. That's the definition of irrational exuberance, and it is certainly reflected in the current price.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: humanitee on March 04, 2013, 08:51:52 PM
Irrational exuberance of the bears.....
is there anyone that shorts bitcoin?

Look, if the resentment and disdain for bears in this thread shows anything, it's that there's a lot of people that live in their own optimistic world that bitcoin will never take a step back. That's the definition of irrational exuberance, and it is certainly reflected in the current price.

It's tried to step back multiple times.
Were you there for the 12k wall that was real at the ATH? A dump like that used to panic the market, now it's stoic.

Strong hands > weak hands, get used to it.



Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: rpietila on March 04, 2013, 08:52:14 PM
You're absolutely wrong. It will fall back to $34.72. So there

Doesn't seem so scary to me. That was roughly the all-time high just a few hours ago.


We will never go to $34.72 ever. Those cheap coins will never return.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: RodeoX on March 04, 2013, 08:53:54 PM
Irrational exuberance of the bears.....
is there anyone that shorts bitcoin?

Look, if the resentment and disdain for bears in this thread shows anything, it's that there's a lot of people that live in their own optimistic world that bitcoin will never take a step back. That's the definition of irrational exuberance, and it is certainly reflected in the current price.
I agree with some of what your saying. But isn't confidently stating that this exuberance is irrational and that it will end, kinda the same thing? Maybe it's not so irrational right now to be optimistic? Maybe the price will rise for the rest of my life? I dunno.  ???


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: Piper67 on March 04, 2013, 08:58:24 PM
Irrational exuberance of the bears.....
is there anyone that shorts bitcoin?

Look, if the resentment and disdain for bears in this thread shows anything, it's that there's a lot of people that live in their own optimistic world that bitcoin will never take a step back. That's the definition of irrational exuberance, and it is certainly reflected in the current price.

Bitfinex will let you short. Good luck!


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: pretendo on March 04, 2013, 08:59:05 PM
I'm not saying that a crash is coming. I am saying that it's pumped up a bit right now, and will step back a dollar or two, yet apparently this is an unthinkable blasphemy according to the totally-not-exuberant people.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: evolve on March 04, 2013, 09:03:06 PM
The hugbox gets very upset at dissenting opinions.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: RodeoX on March 04, 2013, 09:03:22 PM
Yeah, the bears here are grizzly bears and the bulls are Texas long horns. Not to many moderates around.  :D


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: Piper67 on March 04, 2013, 09:05:41 PM
I'm not saying that a crash is coming. I am saying that it's pumped up a bit right now, and will step back a dollar or two, yet apparently this is an unthinkable blasphemy according to the totally-not-exuberant people.

Nah, it's quite possible that it will step back one or two dollars. But predicting when and how will be damned near impossible unless you're the one holding the 20k BTC or so needed to dump. And if the last three or four attempts at dumping have been anything to go by, it will hurt you to do it.

It's not irrational to say that there is a lot of new money coming into Bitcoin (whether one person, a small group or a large one, nobody knows) and that it's pushing up the price. Is the final aim to dump all of that BTC back? Perhaps, but at these levels of money it is much more likely that the final aim is to make BTC a viable force to be reckoned with. For that to happen, each BTC will have to be worth a lot more than 36 USD.

Might it step back? Sure. I for one am not going to risk mis-timing it.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: Bit_Happy on March 04, 2013, 09:07:06 PM
...
Strong hands > weak hands, get used to it.


Strong hands sell when the masses are panic buying.  


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: pretendo on March 04, 2013, 09:09:22 PM
the "I think" is an implicit part of my prediction. Every sentence someone says is an assertion of its own truth. Saying "The Beatles are great!" is the same as saying "I think The Beatles are great!"

So no, I don't have magical information from the future, I just have reasons to believe things.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: notme on March 04, 2013, 10:28:23 PM
...
Strong hands > weak hands, get used to it.


Strong hands sell when the masses are panic buying.  

Strong hands hold through that brief dip.  It will decimate many but defaulters will default and everyone will relearn how sound money works.  It will be easier for people who haven't forgotten.  The assumed supply will be revealed to be elevated and the price will finally start to take off.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: molecular on March 04, 2013, 10:31:28 PM
Irrational exuberance of the bears.....
is there anyone that shorts bitcoin?

Look, if the resentment and disdain for bears in this thread shows anything, it's that there's a lot of people that live in their own optimistic world that bitcoin will never take a step back. That's the definition of irrational exuberance, and it is certainly reflected in the current price.

Bitfinex will let you short. Good luck!

https://i.imgur.com/PuJtTpGl.png (https://i.imgur.com/PuJtTpG.png)

whatever this may mean.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: Peter Lambert on March 05, 2013, 01:35:29 AM
There are some hormone treatments that might help with the dryness problem?

There is this great product called "Just like me" from Pure Romance which does wonders :)


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: Peter Lambert on March 05, 2013, 01:37:25 AM
That's like your opinion man.
+1
I lost count at about 1 million, But a lot of people come here and make bold statements about the future. Yet no one in history has be able to predict the future. So, what you have is a guess, not a logical fact.

The people who can predict the future use that power to make money, they do not share their info for free.


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: DoomDumas on March 05, 2013, 04:20:51 AM
Hurry up,

Those weeks may be the last one ever you'll be albe to buy BTC under 50$ !

Ever


Title: Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up
Post by: rpietila on March 05, 2013, 11:18:58 AM
You're absolutely wrong. It will fall back to $34.72. So there

Doesn't seem so scary to me. That was roughly the all-time high just a few hours ago.


We will never go to $34.72 ever. Those cheap coins will never return.

This post of not-so-many hours ago.. :D Prophetic.

..I'm currently offering 6.09:1 that it will not be below $35 next Friday. Take the opportunity to bet at
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149083.0