Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: becoin on March 05, 2013, 09:46:14 AM



Title: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: becoin on March 05, 2013, 09:46:14 AM
Don't sell bitcoins if your only intention is to speculate on bitcoin exchange rate! Risk is too high for the next couple of years. In addition to that, if you're true bitcoin supporter, this will damage your positive attitude and your desire and ability to develop bitcoin related applications. Please don't sell, unless you know exactly what you do!


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: myself on March 05, 2013, 09:48:50 AM
buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: lucif on March 05, 2013, 10:07:22 AM
Don't sell bitcoins if your only intention is to speculate on bitcoin exchange rate! Risk is too high for the next couple of years. In addition to that, if you're true bitcoin supporter, this will damage your positive attitude and your desire and ability to develop bitcoin related applications. Please don't sell, unless you know exactly what you do!
Does the bitcoin needed for any other purpose than  speculation?


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: piramida on March 05, 2013, 10:15:07 AM
Does the bitcoin needed for any other purpose than  speculation?

yes, read this forum to have some understanding before you post again: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: Bitobsessed on March 05, 2013, 10:18:39 AM
But trading is part of the fun!   :P


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: Mushoz on March 05, 2013, 10:21:00 AM
Don't sell bitcoins if your only intention is to speculate on bitcoin exchange rate! Risk is too high for the next couple of years. In addition to that, if you're true bitcoin supporter, this will damage your positive attitude and your desire and ability to develop bitcoin related applications. Please don't sell, unless you know exactly what you do!

Sellers create stability, you're insane that you want them gone

Edit: And blinded by greed probably


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: becoin on March 05, 2013, 10:47:26 AM
Edit: And blinded by greed probably
Not at all. I just feel sorry for those bitcoiner that have sold their precious bitcoins at $25 in anticipation of the "inevitable" correction! I think we have lost them. They are now bitcoin enemies.


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: lucif on March 05, 2013, 10:58:09 AM
This man is so respectable to define bitcoin enemies hehe...

All this i heared from MMM ponzi participants year ago before they lost their money. "Don't sell", "enemies", etc... Looks like goofs  speak similar to each other.


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: sStC9 on March 05, 2013, 11:15:26 AM
Sell them, use them, exchange them! What will happen if everyone buys but no one uses them but sit there waiting for the next "big number"? It would just be stupid IMO. I have a lot of bitcoins but yesterday I ordered a new computer for example, you might not need to exchange them into fiat, there is quite the extensive list of trades on https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

I don't think you should regret selling at $25 because it's better to do something with them than just sit there looking at the preetttyy numbers. Isn't this a growing ground for a bubble?


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: becoin on March 05, 2013, 11:19:58 AM
All this i heared from MMM ponzi participants year ago before they lost their money.
Bitcoin is missing the key ponzi attribute - the interest rate.

I have a lot of bitcoins but yesterday I ordered a new computer for example
What I said is "don't sell for speculation". It is very different from buying a new computer! Of course, if you need something you should purchase it with bitcoins.


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: molecular on March 05, 2013, 11:24:46 AM
But trading is part of the fun!   :P

There's not much one can do in a constantly rising markets. Constantly except for quick pullbacks you can't trade because gox lag is in the minutes and trading degrades to blind gambling.


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: molecular on March 05, 2013, 11:26:20 AM
Edit: And blinded by greed probably
Not at all. I just feel sorry for those bitcoiner that have sold their precious bitcoins at $25 in anticipation of the "inevitable" correction! I think we have lost them. They are now bitcoin enemies.

no man. Bitcoin enemies are the bankster regulator old money families one world government collectivist power-hungry ignorant assholes.


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: piramida on March 05, 2013, 11:33:55 AM
I decided about a year ago that I can not trust myself not being tempted to sell when the price is "high". So I had to invest in casascius coins, which you can not sell without breaking, and keep only enough in hot storage for purchases and little speculation. If the price continues to raise in a straight line (as it started today) for a couple more weeks, I'll sell some speculative coin. But you never sell all of your coins, only god knows how far this can go this time. My personal feeling is triple digits with a crash/correction to $32 still possible at any time.

To people waiting for single digits, I can only once again say "my condolences, but you missed your train".


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: proudhon on March 05, 2013, 11:39:35 AM
Probably now is a good time to sell lots.  You can thank me later.


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: becoin on March 05, 2013, 11:52:37 AM
I decided about a year ago that I can not trust myself not being tempted to sell when the price is "high". So I had to invest in casascius coins, which you can not sell without breaking, and keep only enough in hot storage for purchases and little speculation.
That is a good decision. However, casascius is acting like your banker in this case. Increased difficulty to follow your temptation is in an inverse proportion to casascius's temptation to sell your coins?!


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: piramida on March 05, 2013, 12:00:49 PM
I decided about a year ago that I can not trust myself not being tempted to sell when the price is "high". So I had to invest in casascius coins, which you can not sell without breaking, and keep only enough in hot storage for purchases and little speculation.
That is a good decision. However, casascius is acting like your banker in this case. Increased difficulty to follow your temptation is in an inverse proportion to casascius's temptation to sell your coins?!

He offers two-factor auth, where you hold half of the private key in your storage, the other half is on the coin. This way, you get a split-key storage for free - one part is secured by you, and nobody except you has even brief knowledge of it, the other by the physical coin, which you never saw so trojan's on your computer can't do anything to it..


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: waspoza on March 05, 2013, 12:02:08 PM
Probably now is a good time to sell lots.  You can thank me later.

Okay people, now it's safe to buy.  ;D


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: Piper67 on March 05, 2013, 12:03:37 PM
Probably now is a good time to sell lots.  You can thank me later.

you really have to stop doing this, Proud... not sure we can take the upward spikes anymore  ;D


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: piramida on March 05, 2013, 12:05:39 PM
yeah as soon as I saw this post from proudhon I sold all... all usd I had :)


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: mcgravier on March 05, 2013, 12:27:53 PM
buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy

Your panic button does not work.


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: myself on March 05, 2013, 12:30:03 PM
buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy

Your panic button does not work.
it did work for the last 8hours


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: becoin on March 05, 2013, 02:54:05 PM
He offers two-factor auth, where you hold half of the private key in your storage, the other half is on the coin.
I know now he is offering 2F auth but many people still not bother to use it. Any idea what % of all the casascius bitcoins already in circulation are 2F auth?


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: piramida on March 05, 2013, 03:03:17 PM
He offers two-factor auth, where you hold half of the private key in your storage, the other half is on the coin.
I know now he is offering 2F auth but many people still not bother to use it. Any idea what % of all the casascius bitcoins already in circulation are 2F auth?

Most possibly, still small percentage-wise - but the bigger players, who buy 1000BTC bars, get 2F auth by default. That said, I would easily trust Mike with large amounts. Completely transparent about personal details, having a good running business, makes zero sense to lose your (quite large I would imagine) personal savings and become some criminal on the run for the rest of your life. And he should also have planned this in advance, by recording all private keys - so this must be a conscious decision. Very low chances, I'd say. Not zero, but on par with your fiat banker running with your money.


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: 13Charlie on March 05, 2013, 03:33:10 PM
SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low) SELL (if you bought low)


Put a little money back in your pocket and take your wife out for a nice dinner because she deserves it after watching you sit at the computer all night and eat, sleep, breathe and crap Bitcoin for the last few years.


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: RaTTuS on March 05, 2013, 04:09:40 PM
buy high , sell low ...






































wait ..


got that backwards....

buy low , sell high ....
hopefully no harm done... ;)


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: molecular on March 05, 2013, 07:44:41 PM
Probably now is a good time to sell lots.  You can thank me later.

And what would you allow me to do to you in case that turns out to be the wrong decision?


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: tvbcof on March 05, 2013, 09:17:38 PM
Probably now is a good time to sell lots.  You can thank me later.

That's pretty much exactly what you said at around $18, $8, $5, etc etc if my memory serves.  When you change your tune I'll start to get more concerned :)



Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: Qoheleth on March 06, 2013, 01:33:42 AM
Edit: And blinded by greed probably
Not at all. I just feel sorry for those bitcoiner that have sold their precious bitcoins at $25 in anticipation of the "inevitable" correction! I think we have lost them. They are now bitcoin enemies.
Sorry, if there's any "enemy" under my roof, it's the algorithm to which I've pledged my daytrading purse. The #1 rule of making money in markets is that unless you are a wizard, you must ignore your gut and stick to the plan. Especially for someone such as I, who have long ago given up on trying to understand the ridiculous moves of the BTC/USD exchange rate. And that plan has dictated incremental profit-taking (read: selling) since the current rally began, proportional to the increase.

Of course, the plan also dictates rebuying every time there is a downward motion. Which I've been doing too. :)


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: 13Charlie on March 06, 2013, 04:50:47 PM
.... ignore your gut and stick to the plan.
+1

But the little voice in my head keeps telling me otherwise . . .Must  . . .Make . . . It . . . Stop


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: Qoheleth on March 06, 2013, 07:50:35 PM
.... ignore your gut and stick to the plan.
+1

But the little voice in my head keeps telling me otherwise . . .Must  . . .Make . . . It . . . Stop
It's becoming harder for me, too. I keep wanting to either buy more BTC because the train has been rolling for a month with no sign of slowing, or sell my wallet because the peak seems to have arrived. I keep having to remind myself that in a market this volatile, cold, pitiless math is the only thing I can trust.

I wonder if it ever gets easier.


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: 13Charlie on March 06, 2013, 08:26:28 PM
I wonder if it ever gets easier.
Let me know if you find that it does.


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: Troll Toll on March 06, 2013, 08:28:43 PM
I sold some at $30. does this mean I am an enemy of bitcoin?


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: casascius on March 06, 2013, 08:40:04 PM
Sellers ought to sell whenever they feel like it, sooner than later if that's how they feel.

The higher the price gets, the bigger it will fall (temporarily) when sellers on the fence all decide at the same time that they better hurry and sell.  That's the opposite of stability.  So, if $46 or whatever sounds like a good haul for your coins... it's a good time to take it before somebody else does.

BTW if someone asked me what temptation I have to steal everybody's Casascius coin money, the answer would be none... not primarily because i'm such a great guy per se... and it's true I don't want to be on the run to avoid getting my ass kicked... but there's something about "I really didn't keep the keys" that negates the potential for temptation simply by being true to the only person who can know that with certainty: myself.  I have never felt the need to steal anybody's money, not now nor ever in the future, so I have never laid plans to do so.

On the one hand, it is understood that I can't prove I didn't keep them, and it's prudent to assume that I could have kept the keys and to assess one's own risk in terms of an assumption that I kept them.  On the other hand, for me to be tempted, I would have had to actually keep the keys, and I didn't so...the answer is zero.

I never think of "what could I do if I stole everybody's money", in fact I become somewhat anxious about the opposite: "how differently might people behave if they believe that I could steal their money even if I really can't?"... it's like a liability of sorts only because people imagine it to potentially exist.  This is part of why I offer 1000 BTC items as two-factor by default - it's a simple and practical way to lessen that perceived liability to some degree.  It's too impractical for 1BTC coins, but definitely not for the biggies.  (Two factor items also don't show up on Casascius Coin trackers since their addresses cannot be known in advance)

(Ironically, if I switch to doing oversize anodized aluminum coins that I can engrave with a laser, I might be able to make cheap small 2-factor coins in the future...we'll see how it works out!)


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: Troll Toll on March 06, 2013, 08:43:40 PM
I was just kidding, of course. OP is retarded if he thinks anyone who ever sells a bitcoin is the enemy.


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: donjoe on March 06, 2013, 09:03:54 PM
that plan has dictated incremental profit-taking (read: selling) since the current rally began, proportional to the increase.

Of course, the plan also dictates rebuying every time there is a downward motion. Which I've been doing too. :)
Yeah, I find it odd how many people talk about big buy-ins and cash-outs at specific prices as if they were final moves after which there should be no more hope to get back in the game. It doesn't matter when you got in or out, you can still speculate - just keep watching the trends and move when the time is right.

I cashed out at $27 to recoup my losses from 2011 when I had bought in at $19, only to find the damned thing had no intention of stopping yet, so I bought in again at $34 and cashed out again today at $47. Clearly not all is lost if you're out "too early" - depending on the trends and on your ability to stay careful and keep it proportional, you can still collect some of the honey later.


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: becoin on March 21, 2013, 03:44:16 PM
I cashed out at $27 to recoup my losses from 2011 when I had bought in at $19, only to find the damned thing had no intention of stopping yet, so I bought in again at $34 and cashed out again today at $47.
Some famous quotes:

He who never makes a mistake never makes anything.
He who makes the same mistake twice is a fool.
 


Title: Re: For God's sake, don't sell for speculation!
Post by: cbeast on March 21, 2013, 03:59:13 PM
I plan to sell when I can draw enough off to live while having enough to let grow. I want to take time off from slavery and do some things I want to do. My obligations prevented me from acquiring as much as I wanted, but it is enough. When I do start selling, I will know that it was for a great cause and not mere speculation.